Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Evaluating three self-help smoking cessation interventions for post-secondary smokers : a randomized controlled trial on six Ontario campuses

Objective. Smoking prevalence is highest among the young adult cohort. Postsecondary students are no exception. Although many students intend to quit smoking, no research has established what methods best promote reductions in, or complete abstinence from smoking. This randomized controlled trial examined the effectiveness of three self-help smoking cessation interventions. Method. On six post-secondary campuses, 483 smokers who voluntarily accessed Leave The Pack Behind (a tobacco control initiative) were randomly assigned to one of three smoking cessation interventions: One Step At A Time (a 2-booklet, *gold standard' program for adults); Smoke|Quit (a newly-developed 2-booklet program for young adult students); and usual care (a 'Quit Kit' containing a booklet on stress management, information about pharmacological quitting aides and novelty items). All participants also received one proactive telephone support call from a peer counsellor. During the study, 85 participants withdrew. The final sample of 216 students who completed baseline questionnaires and 12-week follow-up telephone interviews was representative of the initial sample in terms of demographic characteristics, and smokingquitting- related variables. Results. Whether participants quit smoking depended upon treatment condition, ^(2, N=2\6) = 6.34, p = .04, with Smoke|Quit producing more successfijl quitters (18.4%) than One Step At A Time (4.5%) or the Quit Kit (1 1.4%). On average, participants had quit 53.46 days, with no significant difference across treatments. Selfefficacy also increased. Use of the intervention or other quitting aides was not associated with treatment condition. Among the 191 participants who did not quit smoking, treatment condition did not influence outcomes. Overall, 46.2% had made a quit attempt. Significant decreases in weekly tobacco consumption and increases in self-efficacy to resist smoking were observed from baseline to follow-up. Conclusion. Post-secondary institutions represent a potentially final opportunity for age-targeted interventions. Self-help resources tailored to students' social and contextual characteristics will have considerable more impact than stage-only tailored interventions. Both reduction and abstinence outcomes should be emphasized to positively support students to stop smoking.

Moderating effects of gender and general self-efficacy on the relationship between sensation-seeking and adolescent substance use /

This study performed a aecondvy dau analysis of information collected during the Youth Leisure Study (YLS). The purpose of this study was to examine the potential moderating influences of gender and general self-efTicacy on the relationships aoKXig sensation-seeking and various forms of substance use in adolescents. Specifically, the predictive ability of sensation seeking on five adolescents substance use outcomes (alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana use; binge drinking; and number of times drunk) was examined. Moderated hierarchical multiple regression (MHMR) analyses were used to examine the relationships among study variables. The results for this study indicate that the relationships among sensation-seeking and forms of adolescent substance use are more complex than literature suggests. Main effect relationships were found consistently for sensation-seeking and general self-efficacy with each of the outcome variables. Results for gender were not consistent across the substance use outcomes. Gender was a significant predictor for marijuana use only. The moderating effects of general self-efficacy (GSE) on the sensation-seekingsubstance use relationship were inconsistent. While no significant interactions were found for tobacco or alcohol use outcomes, GSE was found to moderate the relationship between sensation-seeking and marijuana use indicating that feelings of high general selfefficacy act as a buffer or guard against marijuana use. A consistent pattern was found among the alcohol use variables (alcohol use. binge drinking, and number of times drunk). Gender was found to moderate each of these variables indicating that higher levels of sensation seeking are more predictive of higher levels of adolescent alcohol use in males only. Implications of this study on the field of education, are discussed further, and suggestions for future research are presented.

Moderating effects of gender on the relationships among substance use and school outcomes /

The following study was a secondary analysis of data drawn from adolescents in South Western Ontario. The purpose of the study was to: examine the relationships among substance use and school outcomes, explore the relationships between gender and school outcomes, examine the moderating potential of gender on the substance useschool outcomes relationship, and to provide researchers and educators further knowledge of adolescent substance use behaviours. Many previous studies have failed to include the three most common substances used by adolescents (i.e., alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana). Furthermore, many studies have included only one school outcome instead of comparing several outcome variables. Moderated hierarchical regression was used to determine if gender moderated the substance use-school outcomes relationships. The dependent variables consisted of alcohol use, binge drinking, tobacco use, and marijuana use. Five measure of school outcomes were used as independent variables, including Grade Point Average, Positive School-role Behaviour, Negative School Behaviour, School Withdrawal, and School Misbehaviour. The results for this study indicated that substance use and gender were both predictors of all school outcome variables. Furthermore, gender was found to moderate 5 of the 25 substance use-school outcome relationships.

A qualitative case study of the processes of peer education in a young adult tobacco control initiative, Leave the Pack Behind

Peer education involves peers offering credible and reliable information about sensitive life issues through the means of an informal peer group setting (Topping & Ehly, 1998). The purpose of this instrumental case study was to examine the processes of peer education through the exploration of two teams within a young adult tobacco control initiative, Leave the Pack Behind (LTPB). This qualitative case study examined two peer education teams over an eight-month period. Interviews, focus groups and observations were conducted with 12 participants across two peer education teams. Findings show the complexities of the processes of peer education including a connection between the stages of change and the changing role of the peer educator across stages of the empowerment process. Peer education teams and factors in the macro environment were also found to impact the process of peer education. This study provides a new definition for the process of peer education: peer education is a fluid process of knowledge exchange in which peer educators adopt different styles of facilitation as people move through stages of empowerment and change. This study contributes to the academic hterature upon the processes of peer education by providing a definition, a model and an overall understanding through an ecological and empowerment framework. The findings from this study suggest peer educators can be further trained to: use specific peer educational approaches that fit with student smoker's stage of change; better understand their position as a peer educator on the LTPB team; understand the reciprocal relationship between the macro environment and the peer education teams having an effect on one another.

An impact evaluation of the Ontario ban on smoking in schools and on school property : does the ban on smoking influence high school students' intentions to smoke cigarettes?

The Ontario Tobacco Control Act of 1994 imposed a total ban on smoking in schools, and on school property for every school in the province. The imposition of this policy created problems for school administrators. For instance, students who were smoking on walkways and properties adjacent to school boundaries, clashed with neighbouring property owners who were angry about the resulting damage and disruption. The enforcement of this policy consumes valuable resources at each school; therefore, knowledge about the impact of the policy is important. If effective, this policy has the potential to improve the health of students over their lifetime, by preventing or delaying smoking behaviour. Alternatively, an ineffective policy will continue to create administrative problems for the school and serve no legitimate purpose. Therefore, knowledge about the impact of the smoking ban policy on students' smoking intentions assists policy makers and school administrators in their understanding of the policy's impact within the schools. This research provided an impact evaluation of the ban on smoking in schools and on school property in Ontario. A total of 2069 students, from five high schools, in the Niagara Region, provided complete responses to a survey, designed to test whether smoking intentions were affected by the imposition of the policy. The study used Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen, 1991), specifically, the perceived behavioural control measure, to gain some understanding of students' perceptions of control over smoking imposed by the ban. The findings indicate the policy has the potential to influence students' overall smoking intentions. The ban on smoking policy was found to be a significant predictor of the smoking intentions of high school students. As well, attitude, social norms, and perceptions of control were significant predictors of smoking intentions. Exploratory findings also indicated differences between the control beliefs of students from different high schools, indicating potential differences in the enforcement of the smoking ban between schools. The findings also support the utility of the theory of planned behaviour as a methodology for evaluating the influence of punitive policies. This research study should be continued by utilizing the full theory of planned behaviour, including two phases of data collection and the measurement of actual smoking behaviour.

Studies on the insecticide - nematicide-oxamyl and its quantitative determination by gas chromatographic method

Ox amyl , an insecticide/nematicide with the chemical name; methyl ~'. ~·-dimethyl-~-(methylcarbamoyl)oxy-l-thiooxamimidate, and its major degradation compound; oxime or oximino compound, methyl ~',~'-dimethyl-~-hydroxy-l-thiooxamimidate were studied in this work. NMR and mass spectrometry were utilized in the structural studies. An attempt was made to explain the fragmentation patterns of some major peaks in the mass spectra of oxamyl and oxime. A new gas chromatographic method for the detection and determination of submicrogram levels of intact oxamyl using a electron-capture detector was developed. The principle of this method is to produce a derivative which is highly sensitive to an electron-capture detector. The derivative described is dinitrophenyl methylamine( DNPMA ) • Experimental conditions such as pH , reaction temperature , reaction time, the amount of reagent ( Dinitrofluaro benzene) etc. were thoroughly investigated and optimized. This method was successfully applied to the determination of oxamyl residues in tobacco leaves and soil. Throughout this J9D:oject , thin layer chromatography was also used in the separation:and clean up of oxamyl and oxime samples.

The impact of education on the use of breat self- examination among Canadian women

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between the level of education that Canadian women have and their use of breast self-examination (BSE). The secondary objective of this study was to do some exploratory research to measure how the demographic characteristics of these women, and the behaviours that they chose to participate in, might be associated to their use of BSE. This exploratory research was done to gain a better understanding of what kinds of lifestyle and behavioural factors are associated with the use of BSE, and how these factors impact on the relationship that education has on women's use of BSE. The data for the women in the sample were taken from the 1990 Population Health Survey, conducted by Statistics Canada. This survey included questions related to both the demographic characteristics of this population, and their behavioural choices in regards to various healthy lifestyle factors. Education was found to be significantly related to the use of BSE. Many of the demographic variables (age, income, marital status and language) were also found to be significantly related to the use of BSE. The behavioural variables (tobacco use, alcohol use) did not reflect such a strong relationship.

The influence of familial smoking behaviours on adolescent smoking behaviours

The ability to identify adolescents who are at risk for becoming smokers may prove useful in developing effective smoking prevention programs. The purpose of this stUdy was to assess the importance of familial smoking behaviours on adolescent smoking patterns. The results were based on responses to The Grade 7 Lincoln County Smoking Survey designed by Chudzik and Partington (1994), and are a part of the "Peer Assisted Learning Program· (PAL) presented by the Niagara Regional Health Services Department, with the cooperation of a local Board of Education (Region of Niagara). The results indicate that 12% of the total group of 450 Grade 7 student respondents were current smokers at the time the data were collected (13% males and 11% females), while more than 37% of individuals indicated that they had tried smoking previously. Of the individuals who were classified as smokers, 11% reported that they smoked because their parents smoked, but only 6% reported that they smoked because their siblings smoked. More concerning, however, is the finding that 4% of smokers reported that they felt pressured to smoke by their relatives. In a society that is becoming increasingly concerned about health, it is also alarming to observe that only 50% of the respondents within this sample reported that there were no smokers (parents/siblings) in their homes. The results also indicate that 33% percent of respondents had grandparents who continued to smoke, and 53% of respondents indentified other relatives who continued to smoke.

Biochemical and histological investigations of viral localisation in the hypersensitive reaction of Phaselous vulgaris L. var Pinto to tobacco mosaic virus infection

STOBBS, Lorne,W ABSTRACT Biochemical and Histological Investigations of viral localisation in the hypersensitive reaction of Phaseolus vulgaris L. var Pinto to tobacco mosaic virus infection. The infection of Phaseolus vulgaris L. var Pinto with tobacco mosaic virus (TMV) results in the production of distinct necrotic lesions confining the virus to restricted areas of the leaf surface. Biochemical and histological changes in the leaf tissue as a result of infection have been described. Trace accumulations of fluorescent metabolites, detected prior to lesion expression represent metabolites produced, by the cell in response to virus infection. These substances, are considered to undergo oxidation and in diffusing into adjacent cells, react with cellular constituents causing the death of these cells. Such cellular necrosis in advance of infection effectively limits virus spread. Chromatographic studies on extracts from TMV infected Pinto bean leaf tissue suggests that a number of extra-fluorescent metabolites produced on lesion'expression represent end products of phenolic oxidation r,eactionsoccurring earlier in these cells. Inhibition of phenolic oxidation by ascorbate infiltration or elevated temperature treatment resulted in the absence of extra-fluorescent metabolites and the continued movement of virus in the absence of necrosis. Further studies with i ascorbate infiltration indicated that irreversible necrotic events were determined as early as 12 tci 18 hrs after viral inoculation. Histochemical tests indicated that callose formation was initiated at this time, and occurred in response to necrotisation. Inhibition of necrosis by either ascorbate infiltration or elevated temp8rature treatment resulted in the absence of callose deposition. Scanning electron'micrographs of infected tissue revealed severe epidermal and palisade cell damage. Histochemical tests indicated extensive callose formation in cells bordering the lesion, and suggested the role of callose iTh the blockage of intercellular connections limiting virus movement. The significance of these cellular changes is discussed. ii

Niagara Council on Smoking and Health Collection, 1974, 1977-2004, n.d.

NCOSH stands for Niagara Council on Smoking and Health. The former name of this group was Niagara Interagency Council on Smoking and Health. This group was established in 1976 to address the impact of tobacco on health.

Minimal Contact Intervention for Tobacco Dependence

This study was conducted to measure the degree of adherence by public health care providers to a policy that requires them to implement minimal contact intervention for tobacco cessation with their clients. This study also described what components of the intervention may have contributed to the adherence of the policy and how health care providers felt about adhering to the policy. The intervention consisted of a policy for implementation of minimal contact intervention, changes to documentation, a health care provider mentor trained, a training session for health care providers, and ongoing paper and people supports for implementation. Data for this study were collected through a health care provider questionnaire, focus group interviews, and a compliance protocol including a chart audit. The findings of this study showed a high degree of adherence to the policy, that health care providers thought minimal contact intervention was important to conduct with their clients, and that health care providers felt supported to implement the intervention. No statistically significant difference was found between new and experienced health care providers on 17 of the 18 questions on the health care provider questionnaire. However there was a statistically significant difference between new and experienced health care providers with respect to their perception that “clients often feel like they have to accept tobacco cessation information from me.” Changes could be made to the minimal contact intervention and to documentation of the intervention. Implications for future research include implementation within other programs within Hamilton Public Health Services and implementation of this model within other public health units and other types of health care providers within Ontario.

Expenditures on Lotteries: What Do People Say and Wht They Do? a Econometric Analysis.

Underdeclarations Are Typical When Alcohol, Tobacco and Gambling Consumptions Are Questioned in Surveys. Recent Surveys on Expenditures on Lotteries Have Similar Problems: the Declared Expenditures Equal Between 60 to 65 Percent of the Revenues of the Various State-Run Lottery Entreprises. by Using the Relatively Accurate Data on the Revenue Side of This Industry One Can Deal with the Problem of Underdeclarations of Consumption Patterns in Suveys and Obtain Better Income Elasticity Estimates. the Statistical Analysis Permits to Test Specific Hypotheses on a Lottery Model Developed by Brenner, and Suggests Broader Implications Both for Future Econometric Analysis and the Confidence One Gives to Elasticity Estimates Derived From Aggregate Sectorial Data for All Consumption Expenditures.

The costs of alcohol, illegal drugs, and tobacco in Canada, 2002.

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate costs attributable to substance use and misuse in Canada in 2002. Method: Based on information about prevalence of exposure and risk relations for more than 80 disease categories, deaths, years of life lost, and hospitalizations attributable to substance use and misuse were estimated. In addition, substance-attributable fractions for criminal justice expenditures were derived. Indirect costs were estimated using a modified human capital approach. Results: Costs of substance use and misuse totaled almost Can. $40 billion in 2002. The total cost per capita for substance use and misuse was about Can. $1,267: Can. $463 for alcohol, Can. $262 for illegal drugs, and Can. $541 for tobacco. Legal substances accounted for the vast majority of these costs (tobacco: almost 43% of total costs; alcohol: 37%). Indirect costs or productivity losses were the largest cost category (61%), followed by health care (22%) and law enforcement costs (14%). More than 40,000 people died in Canada in 2002 because of substance use and misuse: 37,209 deaths were attributable to tobacco, 4,258 were attributable to alcohol, and 1,695 were attributable to illegal drugs. A total of about 3.8 million hospital days were attributable to substance use and misuse, again mainly to tobacco. Conclusions: Substance use and misuse imposes a considerable economic toll on Canadian society and requires more preventive efforts.

A Study on India’s Trade Relationship with SAARC Countries with Special Reference to SATA

The present study reveals that there are enormous opportunities for forging closer economic relations among SAARC countries. These opportunities could be fully utilized through the twin processes of trade liberalization and industrial restructuring which are complementary to each other. The SAARC Preferential Trade Arrangement (SAPTA) is the first step in trade liberalization. However, the scope of SAPTA has to be sufficiently widened in order to derive substantial benefits from preferential trading agreements. It is suggested that the SAARC countries adopt a combined approach for tariff elimination, tariff reduction and preferential or concessional tariffs. This process will help in moving quickly towards the creation of a Free Trade Area in the SAARC region. It is necessary to emphasis that, in any regional organization, smaller countries may feel that greater trade co-operation with their larger neighbors may result in larger countries taking over their economies. India occupies 70% of the SAARC region, both geographically and economically, and the remaining 6 nations of the SAARC borders only with India and not with each other. As the biggest, and the most industrialized trading partner among the SAARC countries, India has to recognize that a special responsibility devolves on her and take a lead in making the Regional Economic Co-operation a reality in South Asia.