Trends in research on the possible effects of climate change concerning aquatic ecosystems with special emphasis on the modelling approach

Knowledge on the expected effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is defined by three ways. On the one hand, long-term observation in the field serves as a basis for the possible changes; on the other hand, the experimental approach may bring valuable pieces of information to the research field. The expected effects of climate change cannot be studied by empirical approach; rather mathematical models are useful tools for this purpose. Within this study, the main findings of field observations and their implications for future were summarized; moreover, the modelling approaches were discussed in a more detailed way. Some models try to describe the variation of physical parameters in a given aquatic habitat, thus our knowledge on their biota is confined to the findings based on our present observations. Others are destined for answering special issues related to the given water body. Complex ecosystem models are the keys of our better understanding of the possible effects of climate change. Basically, these models were not created for testing the influence of global warming, rather focused on the description of a complex system (e. g. a lake) involving environmental variables, nutrients. However, such models are capable of studying climatic changes as well by taking into consideration a large set of environmental variables. Mostly, the outputs are consistent with the assumptions based on the findings in the field. Since synthetized models are rather difficult to handle and require quite large series of data, the authors proposed a more simple modelling approach, which is capable of examining the effects of global warming. This approach includes weather dependent simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of aquatic organisms within a simplified framework.

Nonlinear dynamics and chaos simulation system analysis for improved design

Small errors proved catastrophic. Our purpose to remark that a very small cause which escapes our notice determined a considerable effect that we cannot fail to see, and then we say that the effect is due to chance. Small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the latter. When dealing with any kind of electrical device specification, it is important to note that there exists a pair of test conditions that define a test: the forcing function and the limit. Forcing functions define the external operating constraints placed upon the device tested. The actual test defines how well the device responds to these constraints. Forcing inputs to threshold for example, represents the most difficult testing because this put those inputs as close as possible to the actual switching critical points and guarantees that the device will meet the Input-Output specifications. ^ Prediction becomes impossible by classical analytical analysis bounded by Newton and Euclides. We have found that non linear dynamics characteristics is the natural state of being in all circuits and devices. Opportunities exist for effective error detection in a nonlinear dynamics and chaos environment. ^ Nowadays there are a set of linear limits established around every aspect of a digital or analog circuits out of which devices are consider bad after failing the test. Deterministic chaos circuit is a fact not a possibility as it has been revived by our Ph.D. research. In practice for linear standard informational methodologies, this chaotic data product is usually undesirable and we are educated to be interested in obtaining a more regular stream of output data. ^ This Ph.D. research explored the possibilities of taking the foundation of a very well known simulation and modeling methodology, introducing nonlinear dynamics and chaos precepts, to produce a new error detector instrument able to put together streams of data scattered in space and time. Therefore, mastering deterministic chaos and changing the bad reputation of chaotic data as a potential risk for practical system status determination. ^

Hydrological dynamics between a coastal aquifer and the adjacent estuarine system, Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Geochemical and geophysical approaches have been used to investigate the freshwater and saltwater dynamics in the coastal Biscayne Aquifer and Biscayne Bay. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, and concentrations of Sr2+ and Ca2+ were combined in two geochemical mixing models to provide estimates of the various freshwater inputs (precipitation, canal water, and groundwater) to Biscayne Bay and the coastal canal system in South Florida. Shallow geophysical electromagnetic and direct current resistivity surveys were used to image the geometry and stratification of the saltwater mixing zone in the near coastal (less than 1km inland) Biscayne Aquifer. The combined stable isotope and trace metal models suggest a ratio of canal input-precipitation-groundwater of 38%–52%–10% in the wet season and 37%–58%–5% in the dry season with an error of 25%, where most (20%) of the error was attributed to the isotope regression model, while the remaining 5% error was attributed to the Sr2+/Ca2+ mixing model. These models suggest rainfall is the dominate source of freshwater to Biscayne Bay. For a bay-wide water budget that includes saltwater and freshwater mixing, fresh groundwater accounts for less than 2% of the total input. A similar Sr 2+/Ca2+ tracer model indicates precipitation is the dominate source in 9 out of 10 canals that discharge into Biscayne Bay. The two-component mixing model converged for 100% of the freshwater canal samples in this study with 63% of the water contributed to the canals coming from precipitation and 37% from groundwater inputs ±4%. There was a seasonal shift from 63% precipitation input in the dry season to 55% precipitation input in the wet season. The three end-member mixing model converged for only 60% of the saline canal samples possibly due to non-conservative behavior of Sr2+ and Ca2+ in saline groundwater discharging into the canal system. Electromagnetic and Direct Current resistivity surveys were successful at locating and estimating the geometry and depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface in the Biscayne Aquifer at two near coastal sites. A saltwater interface that deepened as the survey moved inland was detected with a maximum interpreted depth to the interface of 15 meters, approximately 0.33 km inland from the shoreline. ^

Diel Patterns of Patch Reef Community Dynamics in a Caribbean Back-Reef System

Back-reef seascapes represent critical habitat for juvenile and adult fishes. Patch reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats form a heterogeneous mosaic, often linked by species that use reefs as structure during the day and make foraging migrations into soft-bottom habitat at night. Artificial reefs are used to model natural patch reefs, however may not function equivalently as fish habitat. To study the relative value of natural and artificial patch reefs as fish habitat, these communities in the Sea of Abaco, Bahamas were compared using roving diver surveys and time-lapse photography. Diel turnover in fish abundance, recorded with time-lapse photography and illuminated by infrared light, was quantified across midday, dusk, and night periods to explore possible effects of reef type (artificial vs. natural) on these patterns. Diurnal communities on natural reefs exhibited greater fish abundance, species richness, and functional diversity compared to artificial reefs. Furthermore, both types of reef communities exhibited a significant shift across the diel period, characterized by a decline in total fish density at night, especially for grunts (Haemulidae). Cross-habitat foraging migrations by diurnal or nocturnal species, such as haemulids, are likely central drivers of this twilight turnover and can represent important energy and nutrient subsidies. Time-lapse surveys provided more consistent measures of reef fish assemblages for the smaller artificial reef habitats, yet underestimated abundance of certain taxa and species richness on larger patch habitats when compared to the roving diver surveys. Time-lapse photography complemented with infrared light represent a valuable non-invasive approach to studying behavior of focal species and their fine-scale temporal dynamics in shallow-reef communities.

Dynamics of the Disk-Pendulum Coupled System With Vertical Excitation

This paper investigates the static and dynamic characteristics of the semi-elliptical rocking disk on which a pendulum pinned. This coupled system’s response is also analyzed analytically and numerically when a vertical harmonic excitation is applied to the bottom of the rocking disk. Lagrange’s Equation is used to derive the motion equations of the disk-pendulum coupled system. The second derivative test for the system’s potential energy shows how the location of the pendulum’s pivotal point affects the number and stability of equilibria, and the change of location presents different bifurcation diagrams for different geometries of the rocking disk. For both vertically excited and unforced cases, the coupled system shows chaos easily, but the proper chosen parameters can still help the system reach and keep the steady state. For the steady state of the vertically excited rocking disk without a pendulum, the variation of the excitation’s amplitude and frequency result in the hysteresis for the amplitude of the response. When a pendulum is pinned on the rocking disk, three major categories of steady states are presently in the numerical way.

Modelling turbulent flow dynamics in AC magnetic field

Abstract not available

The interplay between tectonics, sediment dynamics and gateways evolution in the Danube system from the Pannonian Basin to the western Black Sea

Understanding the natural evolution of a river–delta–sea system is important to develop a strong scientific basis for efficient integrated management plans. The distribution of sediment fluxes is linked with the natural connection between sediment source areas situated in uplifting mountain chains and deposition in plains, deltas and, ultimately, in the capturing oceans and seas. The Danube River–western Black Sea is one of the most active European systems in terms of sediment re-distribution that poses significant societal challenges. We aim to derive the tectonic and sedimentological background of human-induced changes in this system and discuss their interplay. This is obtained by analysing the tectonic and associated vertical movements, the evolution of relevant basins and the key events affecting sediment routing and deposition. The analysis of the main source and sink areas is focused in particular on the Miocene evolution of the Carpatho-Balkanides, Dinarides and their sedimentary basins including the western Black Sea. The vertical movements of mountains chains created the main moments of basin connectivity observed in the Danube system. Their timing and effects are observed in sediments deposited in the vicinity of gateways, such as the transition between the Pannonian/Transylvanian and Dacian basins and between the Dacian Basin and western Black Sea. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding threshold conditions driving rapid basins connectivity changes superposed over the longer time scale of tectonic-induced vertical movements associated with background erosion and sedimentation. The spatial and temporal scale of such processes is contrastingly different and challenging. The long-term patterns interact with recent or anthropogenic induced modifications in the natural system and may result in rapid changes at threshold conditions that can be quantified and predicted. Their understanding is critical because of frequent occurrence during orogenic evolution, as commonly observed in the Mediterranean area and discussed elsewhere.

Modelling of an efficient dynamic smart solar photovoltaic power grid system

A smart solar photovoltaic grid system is an advent of innovation coherence of information and communications technology (ICT) with power systems control engineering via the internet [1]. This thesis designs and demonstrates a smart solar photovoltaic grid system that is selfhealing, environmental and consumer friendly, but also with the ability to accommodate other renewable sources of energy generation seamlessly, creating a healthy competitive energy industry and optimising energy assets efficiency. This thesis also presents the modelling of an efficient dynamic smart solar photovoltaic power grid system by exploring the maximum power point tracking efficiency, optimisation of the smart solar photovoltaic array through modelling and simulation to improve the quality of design for the solar photovoltaic module. In contrast, over the past decade quite promising results have been published in literature, most of which have not addressed the basis of the research questions in this thesis. The Levenberg-Marquardt and sparse based algorithms have proven to be very effective tools in helping to improve the quality of design for solar photovoltaic modules, minimising the possible relative errors in this thesis. Guided by theoretical and analytical reviews in literature, this research has carefully chosen the MatLab/Simulink software toolbox for modelling and simulation experiments performed on the static smart solar grid system. The auto-correlation coefficient results obtained from the modelling experiments give an accuracy of 99% with negligible mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and standard deviation. This thesis further explores the design and implementation of a robust real-time online solar photovoltaic monitoring system, establishing a comparative study of two solar photovoltaic tracking systems which provide remote access to the harvested energy data. This research made a landmark innovation in designing and implementing a unique approach for online remote access solar photovoltaic monitoring systems providing updated information of the energy produced by the solar photovoltaic module at the site location. In addressing the challenge of online solar photovoltaic monitoring systems, Darfon online data logger device has been systematically integrated into the design for a comparative study of the two solar photovoltaic tracking systems examined in this thesis. The site location for the comparative study of the solar photovoltaic tracking systems is at the National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Taiwan, R.O.C. The overall comparative energy output efficiency of the azimuthal-altitude dual-axis over the 450 stationary solar photovoltaic monitoring system as observed at the research location site is about 72% based on the total energy produced, estimated money saved and the amount of CO2 reduction achieved. Similarly, in comparing the total amount of energy produced by the two solar photovoltaic tracking systems, the overall daily generated energy for the month of July shows the effectiveness of the azimuthal-altitude tracking systems over the 450 stationary solar photovoltaic system. It was found that the azimuthal-altitude dual-axis tracking systems were about 68.43% efficient compared to the 450 stationary solar photovoltaic systems. Lastly, the overall comparative hourly energy efficiency of the azimuthal-altitude dual-axis over the 450 stationary solar photovoltaic energy system was found to be 74.2% efficient. Results from this research are quite promising and significant in satisfying the purpose of the research objectives and questions posed in the thesis. The new algorithms introduced in this research and the statistical measures applied to the modelling and simulation of a smart static solar photovoltaic grid system performance outperformed other previous works in reviewed literature. Based on this new implementation design of the online data logging systems for solar photovoltaic monitoring, it is possible for the first time to have online on-site information of the energy produced remotely, fault identification and rectification, maintenance and recovery time deployed as fast as possible. The results presented in this research as Internet of things (IoT) on smart solar grid systems are likely to offer real-life experiences especially both to the existing body of knowledge and the future solar photovoltaic energy industry irrespective of the study site location for the comparative solar photovoltaic tracking systems. While the thesis has contributed to the smart solar photovoltaic grid system, it has also highlighted areas of further research and the need to investigate more on improving the choice and quality design for solar photovoltaic modules. Finally, it has also made recommendations for further research in the minimization of the absolute or relative errors in the quality and design of the smart static solar photovoltaic module.

Towards intelligent aquaculture. Development of an early Biological Warning System to monitor exposure to contaminants and fish welfare: from artificial vision to systems modelling

161 p.

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

Do improved pastures affect enzymatic activity and C and N dynamics in soils of the montado system ?

Vast montado areas are threatened by degradation, as the result of a long history of land use changes. Since improved pastures have been installed aiming soil quality improvement and system sustainability, it is crucial to evaluate the effects of these management changes on soil organic matter status and soil biological activity, as soil quality indicators. Therefore, a 35-yr old improved pasture and a natural pasture were studied, considering areas beneath tree canopy and in the open. Total organic C, total N, hot water soluble (HWS) and particulate (POM) C, microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), C mineralization rate (CMR) and net N mineralization rate (NMR) were determined. In addition, for a 1-yr period, soil β-glucosidase, urease, proteases and acid phosphomonoesterase were periodically determined. Improved pasture promoted the increase of soil C and N through POM-C increment, particularly beneath the trees canopies. The two study pastures did not show differences regarding soil microbial biomass, but variations in CMR, HWS-C and N availability (proteases and urease activities) suggest divergent soil microbial communities. Tree regulator role on C, N and P transformation processes in soil was confirmed

Mathematical-modelling simulation of red gum lerp psyllid Glycaspis brimblecombei population dynamics towards the strategy identification for biological control with its parasitoid Psyllaephagus bliteus.

2009

Metabolism modelling of the Urban Water System of Oslo using the package UWOT

Oslo, capitale della Norvegia, sta sperimentando un’improvvisa crescita della popolazione e secondo le stime fornite da Statistics Norway si prevede un aumento di 200 000 abitanti entro il 2040. La crescita della popolazione comporterà un rilevante aumento di domanda di acqua e, insieme ad altri fattori quali l’età delle infrastrutture e i cambiamenti climatici, sarà responsabile di una notevole pressione sulle infrastrutture idriche presenti. In risposta alla necessità di tempestivi cambiamenti, il gestore del servizio idrico della città (Oslo VAV) ha deciso di finanziare progetti per migliorare la robustezza delle infrastrutture idriche. Il lavoro di tesi si inserisce all’interno del progetto E3WDM, istituito nel 2005 con lo scopo di definire una gestione più efficiente della risorsa idrica di Oslo. L’obiettivo generale della tesi è la creazione di un modello metabolico attraverso il software UWOT (Makropoulos et al., 2008) con lo scopo di rappresentare i consumi idrici di due tipiche tipologie abitative nella città di Oslo. L’innovazione di questo studio consiste nella definizione e nella modellazione della domanda idrica all’interno delle abitazioni ad un livello di dettaglio molto elevato. Il nuovo approccio fornito da UWOT consente la simulazione di differenti strategie di intervento e la successiva gestione ottimale della risorsa idrica in grado di minimizzare i consumi di acqua, di energia e i costi, compatibilmente con la domanda idrica richiesta. Il lavoro di tesi comprende: -La descrizione del software UWOT, in particolare lo scopo del modello, l’innovativo approccio adottato, la struttura e il procedimento per creare un modello del sistema idrico urbano. -La definizione dei dati richiesti per la simulazione dei consumi idrici all’interno delle abitazioni nella città di Oslo e i metodi utilizzati per raccoglierli -L’applicazione del modello UWOT per la definizione dei trend di consumi idrici e la successiva analisi dei risultati

Dynamics and diversity of Escherichia coli in animals and system management of the manure on a commercial farrow-to-finish pig farm

The objective of this study was to determine the dynamics and diversity of Escherichia coli populations in animal and environmental lines of a commercial farrow-to-finish pig farm in Spain along a full production cycle (July 2008 to July 2009), with special attention to antimicrobial resistance and the presence of integrons. In the animal line, a total of 256 isolates were collected from pregnant sows (10 samples and 20 isolates), 1-week-old piglets (20 samples and 40 isolates), unweaned piglets (20 samples and 38 isolates), growers (20 samples and 40 isolates), and the finishers' floor pen (6 samples and 118 isolates); from the underfloor pits and farm slurry tank environmental lines, 100 and 119 isolates, respectively, were collected. Our results showed that E. coli populations in the pig fecal microbiota and in the farm environment are highly dynamic and show high levels of diversity. These issues have been proven through DNA-based typing data (repetitive extragenic palindromic PCR [REP-PCR]) and phenotypic typing data (antimicrobial resistance profile comprising 19 antimicrobials). Clustering of the sampling groups based on their REP-PCR typing results showed that the spatial features (the line) had a stronger weight than the temporal features (sampling week) for the clustering of E. coli populations; this weight was less significant when clustering was performed based on resistotypes. Among animals, finishers harbored an E. coli population different from those of the remaining animal populations studied, considering REP-PCR fingerprints and resistotypes. This population, the most important from a public health perspective, demonstrated the lowest levels of antimicrobial resistance and integron presence.