Disputes, Debt and Equity

We show how the prospect of disputes over firms’ revenue reports promotes debt financing over equity. These findings are presented within a costly state verification model with a risk averse entrepreneur. The prospect of disputes encourages incentive regimes which limit penalties and avoid stochastic monitoring, even when the lender can commit to stochastic enforcement strategies. Consequently, optimal contracts shift away from equity and toward standard debt. For a useful special case of the model, closed form solutions are presented for leverage and consumption allocations under efficient debt contracts.

Tractable valuations under uncertainty

I put forward a concise and intuitive formula for the calculation of the valuation for a good in the presence of the expectation that further, related, goods will soon become available. This valuation is tractable in the sense that it does not require the explicit resolution of the consumerís life-time problem.

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Syntaxin1a variants lacking an N-peptide or bearing the LE mutation bind to Munc18a in a closed conformation.

In neurons, soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment receptor (SNARE) proteins drive the fusion of synaptic vesicles to the plasma membrane through the formation of a four-helix SNARE complex. Members of the Sec1/Munc18 protein family regulate membrane fusion through interactions with the syntaxin family of SNARE proteins. The neuronal protein Munc18a interacts with a closed conformation of the SNARE protein syntaxin1a (Syx1a) and with an assembled SNARE complex containing Syx1a in an open conformation. The N-peptide of Syx1a (amino acids 1-24) has been implicated in the transition of Munc18a-bound Syx1a to Munc18a-bound SNARE complex, but the underlying mechanism is not understood. Here we report the X-ray crystal structures of Munc18a bound to Syx1a with and without its native N-peptide (Syx1aΔN), along with small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data for Munc18a bound to Syx1a, Syx1aΔN, and Syx1a L165A/E166A (LE), a mutation thought to render Syx1a in a constitutively open conformation. We show that all three complexes adopt the same global structure, in which Munc18a binds a closed conformation of Syx1a. We also identify a possible structural connection between the Syx1a N-peptide and SNARE domain that might be important for the transition of closed-to-open Syx1a in SNARE complex assembly. Although the role of the N-peptide in Munc18a-mediated SNARE complex assembly remains unclear, our results demonstrate that the N-peptide and LE mutation have no effect on the global conformation of the Munc18a-Syx1a complex.

Is Graduate Under-employment Persistent? Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper examines the persistence of under-employment amongst UK higher education graduates. For the cohort of individuals who graduated in 2002/3, micro-data collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency, are used to calculate the rates of "non-graduate job" employment 6 months and 42 months after graduation. A logic regression analysis suggests the underemployment is not a short-term phenomenon and is systematically related to a set of observable characteristics. It is also found that under-employment 42 months after graduation, which is consistent with the view that the nature of the first job after graduation is important in terms of occupational attainment later in the life-cycle.

Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

Reversibility of cardiac fibrosis in mice chronically infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, under specific chemotherapy

This investigation was performed to verify the effect of specific chemotherapy (Benznidazole or MK-346) on the inflammatory and fibrotic cardiac alterations in mice chronically infected with the strains 21 SF (Type II) and Colombian (Type III) of Trypanosoma cruzi. To obtain chronically infected mice, two groups of 100 Swiss mice each, were infected with either the 21 SF or the Colombian strain (2x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 and 5x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 blood forms respectively). The rate of morality in the acute phase was of 80% for both groups. Twenty surviving mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 20 with the Colombian strain were then divided in treated and untreated groups. Excluding those that died during the course of treatment, 14 mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 15 with the Colombian strain were evaluated in the present study. Chemotherapy was performed with Benznidazole (N-benzil-2-nitro-1-imidazolacetamide) in the dose of 100mg/k.b.w/day, for 60 days, or with the MK-436(3(1-methyl-5 nitroimidazol-2-yl) in two daily doses of 250 mg/k.b.w, for 20 days. Parasitological cure tests were performed (xenodiagnosis, haemoculture, subinovulation of the blood into newborn mice), and serological indirect immunofluorescence test. The treated and untreated mice as well as intact controls were killed at different periods after treatment and the heart were submitted to histopathological study with hematoxilineosin and picrosirius staining; ultrastructural study; collagen immunotyping, fibronectin and laminin identification by immunofluorescence tests. Results: the untreated controls either infected with 21 SF or Colombian strain, showed inflammatory and fibrotic alterations that were mild to moderate with the 21 SF strain and intense with the Colombian strain. Redpicrosirius staining showed bundles of collagen in the interstitial space and around cardiac fibers. Increased deposits of mitritial components and collagen fibers, macrophages and fibroblasts appeared at the ultra structural examination. Deposits of fibronectin, laminin, pro-III and IV collagens were seen, most intense in those infected with the Colombian strain. Treated nice, parasitologically cured, presented clear-cut regression of the inflammatory lesions and of the interstitial matrix thickening. Mice infected with the Colombian strain and treated with MK-436, was parasitologically cured in 5/6 cases and showed mild inflammatory infiltration and fibrosis. The mice treated with Benznidazole (Colombian strain) did not cure and showed moderate fibrosis and inflammation. Treatment of the nice infected with the 21 SF with Benznidazole determined parasitological cure of all animals, that showed mild inflammation and fibrosis of the myocardium. The cured mice of all groups and treated but uncured showed collagen degradation at electronmicroscopy and decrease of immunofluorescence pattern of the matrix.

Displacement of Biomfhalaria glabrata by thiara granifera under natural conditions in the Dominican Republic

After a study of the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata snails in several breeding places in the Dominican Republic, the snail Thiara granifera was introduced in some B. glabrata habitats. T. granifera became established in one point in one habitat in the townof Quisqueya, in the east of the country. Around this point of establishment 6 points were selected in order to observe the population dynamics of both species of snails and the chemical and biological characteristics at each point. Four of these points already harbored B. glabrata. One control point was selected also harboring B. glabrata. After 14 months of observations, the results showed that T. granifera was competing with and displacing B. glabrata. This competition does not seem to be competition for food or vital space. Rather, B. glabrata avoids the presence of T. granifera and moves away to new areas, and this is possibly due to a chemical substance(s) secreted by T. granifera or by physical contact with the large number of individuals of T. granifera.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Geometry and physics of knots

KNOTS are usually categorized in terms of topological properties that are invariant under changes in a knot's spatial configuration(1-4). Here we approach knot identification from a different angle, by considering the properties of particular geometrical forms which we define as 'ideal'. For a knot with a given topology and assembled from a tube of uniform diameter, the ideal form is the geometrical configuration having the highest ratio of volume to surface area. Practically, this is equivalent to determining the shortest piece of tube that can be closed to form the knot. Because the notion of an ideal form is independent of absolute spatial scale, the length-to-diameter ratio of a tube providing an ideal representation is constant, irrespective of the tube's actual dimensions. We report the results of computer simulations which show that these ideal representations of knots have surprisingly simple geometrical properties. In particular, there is a simple linear relationship between the length-to-diameter ratio and the crossing number-the number of intersections in a two-dimensional projection of the knot averaged over all directions. We have also found that the average shape of knotted polymeric chains in thermal equilibrium is closely related to the ideal representation of the corresponding knot type. Our observations provide a link between ideal geometrical objects and the behaviour of seemingly disordered systems, and allow the prediction of properties of knotted polymers such as their electrophoretic mobility(5).

Development of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Vianna, 1911 in Lutzomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) under experimental conditions

The development of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis in experimentally infected Lutzomyia intermedia, showed colonization of the hindgut from 48h after the infective blood-meal, and the migration flagellates to the foregut, with a massive infection of the cardia at the 5th day post infection. Up to 10 days following the infective blood-meal, very few parasites were seen in the pharynx and cibarium. The role of L. intermedia as a vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis is discussed according to the estabilished criteria.

Large-scale imatinib dose-concentration-effect study in CML patients under routine care conditions.

This observational study analyzed imatinib pharmacokinetics and response in 2478 chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. Data were obtained through centralized therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) at median treatment duration of ≥2 years. First, individual initial trough concentrations under 400mg/day imatinib starting dose were estimated. Second, their correlation (C^min(400mg)) with reported treatment response was verified. Low imatinib levels were predicted in young male patients and those receiving P-gp/CYP3A4 inducers. These patients had also lower response rates (7% lower 18-months MMR in male, 17% lower 1-year CCyR in young patients, Kaplan-Meier estimates). Time-point independent multivariate regression confirmed a correlation of individual C^min(400mg) with response and adverse events. Possibly due to confounding factors (e.g. dose modifications, patient selection bias), the relationship seemed however flatter than previously reported from prospective controlled studies. Nonetheless, these observational results strongly suggest that a subgroup of patients could benefit from early dosage optimization assisted by TDM, because of lower imatinib concentrations and lower response rates.

A Modulated Closed Form solution for Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping - A thorough evaluation and comparison to iterative methods based on edge prior knowledge.

The aim of this study is to perform a thorough comparison of quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) techniques and their dependence on the assumptions made. The compared methodologies were: two iterative single orientation methodologies minimizing the l2, l1TV norm of the prior knowledge of the edges of the object, one over-determined multiple orientation method (COSMOS) and anewly proposed modulated closed-form solution (MCF). The performance of these methods was compared using a numerical phantom and in-vivo high resolution (0.65mm isotropic) brain data acquired at 7T using a new coil combination method. For all QSM methods, the relevant regularization and prior-knowledge parameters were systematically changed in order to evaluate the optimal reconstruction in the presence and absence of a ground truth. Additionally, the QSM contrast was compared to conventional gradient recalled echo (GRE) magnitude and R2* maps obtained from the same dataset. The QSM reconstruction results of the single orientation methods show comparable performance. The MCF method has the highest correlation (corrMCF=0.95, r(2)MCF =0.97) with the state of the art method (COSMOS) with additional advantage of extreme fast computation time. The l-curve method gave the visually most satisfactory balance between reduction of streaking artifacts and over-regularization with the latter being overemphasized when the using the COSMOS susceptibility maps as ground-truth. R2* and susceptibility maps, when calculated from the same datasets, although based on distinct features of the data, have a comparable ability to distinguish deep gray matter structures.

Binding under Conflict Conditions: State-Space Analysis of Multivariate EEG Synchronization.

Real-world objects are often endowed with features that violate Gestalt principles. In our experiment, we examined the neural correlates of binding under conflict conditions in terms of the binding-by-synchronization hypothesis. We presented an ambiguous stimulus ("diamond illusion") to 12 observers. The display consisted of four oblique gratings drifting within circular apertures. Its interpretation fluctuates between bound ("diamond") and unbound (component gratings) percepts. To model a situation in which Gestalt-driven analysis contradicts the perceptually explicit bound interpretation, we modified the original diamond (OD) stimulus by speeding up one grating. Using OD and modified diamond (MD) stimuli, we managed to dissociate the neural correlates of Gestalt-related (OD vs. MD) and perception-related (bound vs. unbound) factors. Their interaction was expected to reveal the neural networks synchronized specifically in the conflict situation. The synchronization topography of EEG was analyzed with the multivariate S-estimator technique. We found that good Gestalt (OD vs. MD) was associated with a higher posterior synchronization in the beta-gamma band. The effect of perception manifested itself as reciprocal modulations over the posterior and anterior regions (theta/beta-gamma bands). Specifically, higher posterior and lower anterior synchronization supported the bound percept, and the opposite was true for the unbound percept. The interaction showed that binding under challenging perceptual conditions is sustained by enhanced parietal synchronization. We argue that this distributed pattern of synchronization relates to the processes of multistage integration ranging from early grouping operations in the visual areas to maintaining representations in the frontal networks of sensory memory.