876 resultados para Structural break in monetary policy


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This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of South Africa's economy over 1975-93 using a decomposition method within the inputoutput (IO) framework for analysing output changes from a demand side perspective. It decomposes output growth into private consumption, government consumption, investment and export components and also measures the impact of import substitution and changes in intermediate input use (as indicated by changes in IO coefficients). It is found that, before 1981, overall output growth was multi-components driven with all the above components contributing positively to economic growth. However, the collapse of investment demand is by far the single largest factor contributing to the economic stagnation that categorizes the post-1981 period.

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The primary theme of this research was the characterisation of new and novel organo-tellurium complexes, using the technique of single crystal X-ray analysis to establish more firmly the various coordination modes of tellurium. In each study the unit cell dimensions and intensity data were collected using an Enraf-Nonius CAD-4, four circle diffractometer. The raw data collected in turn was transferred to the Birmingham University Honeywell Multics System and processed using the appropriate computer packages for the determination of crystal structures. The molecular and crystal structures of: bis[2-(2-pyridyl)phenyl]tritelluride, bis[2-(N-hydroxy)iminophenyl] ditelluride, 2-(2-pyridyl)phenyltellurium(IV) tribromide, (2-N,N-dimethylbenzylamine-C,N')tellurium(IV)tribromide, 2-dichloro(butyl)tellurobenzaldehyde, 2-dichlorobutotelluro-N-dimethylbenzyl ammonium chloride, dimethyldithiocarbamato[2-(2-pyridyl)phenyl]tellurium(II), dimethyldithiocarbamato[2-(2-quinolinyl)phenyl]tellurium(II) and para-ethoxypheny[2-(2-pyridyl)phenyl]telluride are described. In each structure, the Lewis acidity of tellurium appears to be satisfied by autocomplex formation, through short-range intramolecular secondary bonds between tellurium and an electron denoting species, (generally nitrogen in these structures) with long range weak inter molecular contacts forming in the majority of the tellurium(IV) structures. The order of Lewis acidity in each structure can be considered to be reflected by the length of the short range intramolecular secondary bond, identified, that is, when tellurium has a low Lewis acidity this interaction is long. Interestingly, no primary bonds are found trans to a Te-C covalent bond in any of the above structures, highlighting the strong trans effect of aromatic and aryl groups in tellurium complexes.

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This thesis is concerned with the means by which the state in Britain has attempted to influence the technological development of private industry in the period 1945-1979. Particular emphasis is laid on assessing the abilities of technology policy measures to promote innovation. With that objective, the innovation literature is selectively reviewed to draw up an analytical framework to evaluate the innovation content of policy (Chapter 2). Technology policy is taken to consist of the specific measures utilised by government and its agents that affect the technological behaviour of firms. The broad sweep of policy during the period under consideration is described in Chapter 3 which concentrates on elucidating its institutional structure and the activities of the bodies involved. The empirical core of the thesis consists of three parallel case studies of policy toward the computer, machine tool and textile machinery industries (Chapters 4-6). The studies provide detailed historical accounts of the development and composition of policy, relating it to its specific institutional and industrial contexts. Each reveals a different pattern and level of state intervention. The thesis concludes with a comparative review of the findings of the case studies within a discussion centred on the arguments presented in Chapter 2. Topics arising include the state's differential support for the range of activities involved in innovation, the location of state-funded R&D, the encouragement of supplier-user contact, and the difficulties raised in adoption and diffusion.

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Starting from a number of general tenets about radical political parties, this article examines the Front National (FN) in relation to its core policy issue of immigration. To what extent has FN immigration policy been defined from the outset by its radicalism? Has that radicalism been constant or variable over time? And how far can a reciprocal influence be detected between the FN and the center Right in immigration policy formulation? Focusing on election campaigns, manifestos, and key moments in the FN's evolution, the article assesses how the party has tailored its radicalism to contextual factors and tactical considerations. It reveals an FN less bound to a fixed policy and more ready to seek accommodation (with circumstance, public opinion, or the center Right) than is generally acknowledged. Conversely, it also assesses how the FN's mobilization of strong support on the immigration issue has had radicalizing effects on the center Right. The article concludes by considering whether the change of leadership in January 2011 might confine the FN to the radical Right or see it adopt a more center-oriented course.

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The aim of this study is to determine if nonlinearities have affected purchasing power parity (PPP) since 1885. Also using recent advances in the econometrics of structural change we segment the sample space according to the identified breaks and look at whether the PPP condition holds in each sub-sample and whether this involves linear or non-linear adjustment. Our results suggest that during some sub-periods, PPP holds, although whether it holds or not and whether the adjustment is linear or non-linear, depends primarily on the type of exchange rate regime in operation at any point in time.

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This paper employs a Component GARCH in Mean model to show that house prices across a number of major US cities between 1987 and 2009 have displayed asset market properties in terms of both risk-return relationships and asymmetric adjustment to shocks. In addition, tests for structural breaks in the mean and variance indicate structural instability across the data range. Multiple breaks are identified across all cities, particularly for the early 1990s and during the post-2007 financial crisis as housing has become an increasingly risky asset. Estimating the models over the individual sub-samples suggests that over the last 20 years the financial sector has increasingly failed to account for the levels of risk associated with real estate markets. This result has possible implications for the way in which financial institutions should be regulated in the future.

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Synthetic hydrogel polymers were prepared by free radical photopolymerization in aqueous solution of the sodium salt of 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid (Na-AMPS). Poly(ethylene glycol) diacrylate (PEGDA) and 4,4'-azo-bis(4-cyanopentanoic acid) were used as the crosslinker and UV-photoinitiator, respectively. The effects of varying the Na-AMPS monomer concentration within the range of 30-50% w/v and the crosslinker concentration within the range of 0.1-1.0% mol (relative to monomer) were studied in terms of their influence on water absorption properties. The hydrogel sheets exhibited extremely high swelling capacities in aqueous media which were dependent on monomer concentration, crosslink density, and the ionic strength and composition of the immersion medium. The effects of varying the number-average molecular weight of the PEGDA crosslinker from = 250 to 700 were also investigated. Interestingly, it was found that increasing the molecular weight and therefore the crosslink length at constant crosslink density decreased both the rate of water absorption and the equilibrium water content. Cytotoxicity testing by the direct contact method with mouse fibroblast L929 cells indicated that the synthesized hydrogels were nontoxic. On the basis of these results, it is considered that photopolymerized Na-AMPS hydrogels crosslinked with PEGDA show considerable potential for biomedical use as dressings for partial thickness burns. This paper describes some structural effects which are relevant to their design as biomaterials for this particular application. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

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Volume reduction and functional impairment in areas of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) have been found in borderline personality disorder (BPD), particularly in patients with a history of childhood abuse. These abnormalities may contribute to the expression of emotion dysregulation and aggressiveness. In this study we investigated whether the volume of the PFC is reduced in BPD patients and whether a history of childhood abuse would be associated with greater PFC structural changes. Structural MRI data were obtained from 18 BPD patients and 19 healthy individuals matched for age, sex, handedness, and education and were analyzed using voxel based morphometry. The Child Abuse Scale was used to elicit a past history of abuse; aggression was evaluated using the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory (BDHI). The volume of the right ventrolateral PFC (VLPFC) was significantly reduced in BPD subjects with a history of childhood abuse compared to those without this risk factor. Additionally, right VLPFC gray matter volume significantly correlated with the BDHI total score and with BDHI irritability and negativism subscale scores in patients with a history of childhood abuse. Our results suggest that a history of childhood abuse may lead to increased aggression mediated by an impairment of the right VLPFC. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

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DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

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Studies of framing in the EU political system are still a rarity and they suffer from a lack of systematic empirical analysis. Addressing this gap, we ask if institutional and policy contexts intertwined with the strategic side of framing can explain the number and types of frames employed by different stakeholders. We use a computer-assisted manual content analysis and develop a fourfold typology of frames to study the frames that were prevalent in the debates on four EU policy proposals within financial market regulation and environmental policy at the EU level and in Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The main empirical finding is that both contexts and strategies exert a significant impact on the number and types of frames in EU policy debates. In conceptual terms, the article contributes to developing more fine-grained tools for studying frames and their underlying dimensions.

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This thesis examines the influence of non-state actors on Polish-German relations by considering foreign policy-making towards Poland in Germany and vice versa. The approach chosen for this thesis is interdisciplinary and takes into consideration literature from domestic politics (Area Studies), Foreign Policy Analysis and International Relations (IR). The thesis argues that IR, by purely looking into the quality of inter-state relations, too often treats these relations as a result of policies emanating from the relevant governments, without considering the policies’ background. Therefore, the thesis argues that it is necessary to engage with the domestic factors which might explain where foreign policies come from. It points out that non-state actors influence governments’ choices by supplying resources, and by cooperating or competing with the government on an issue at stake. In order to determine the degree of influence that non-state actors can have on foreign policymaking two variables are examined: the institutionalisation of the state relations in question; and the domestic structures of the relevant states. Specifically, the thesis examines the institutionalisation of Polish-German relations, and examines Germany’s and Poland’s domestic structures and their effect on the two states’ foreign policy-making in general. Thereafter, the thesis uses case studies in order to unravel the influence of non-state actors on specific foreign policies. Three case studies are examined in detail: (i) Poland’s EU accession negotiations with regard to the free movement of capital chapter of the acquis communautaire; (ii) Germany’s EU 2004 Eastern Enlargement negotiations with regard to the free movement of workers chapter of the acquis communautaire; and (iii) Germany’s decision to establsh a permanent exhibition in Berlin that will depict the expulsions of millions of Germans from the East following WWII.

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Az írás a globális értékláncok élén álló autóipari cégek világgazdasági válságra adott reakcióit foglalja össze. Megállapítja, hogy a válságnak messze nincs vége: az iparág globális átrendeződése folytatódik. A globális értékláncokba sikeresen betagozódott közép-európai autóipari klaszter ezeknek a folyamatoknak mindmáig nyertese volt. Számolni kell azonban azzal, hogy továbbra is sok a technológiai és a piaci bizonytalanság: az új szereplők belépése, új üzleti modellek elterjedése hosszabb távon felboríthatja a jelenlegi status quo-t, és veszélyeztetheti a hagyományos autóipari befektetőiket munkabér-alapú versenyképességgel megtartani próbáló közép- és kelet-európai országok pozícióit. Az autóipari működő tőkét fogadó közép-kelet-európai országok számára hosszabb távon veszélyt jelenthet az autóipari üzleti modellek átalakulása, a gyártás teljes kiszervezése komplex gyártási szolgáltatást vállaló cégekhez, mivel ez esetben az értéklánc vezető vállalatai bezárhatják a régióban működő gyártóbázisaikat. Az értékláncok élén álló globális cégek „menekülés a minőségbe” stratégiája helyi szinten is követhető, követendő, a működő tőkét fogadó országok versenyképessége kizárólag a helyi leányvállalatok állandó „feljebb lépésével” tartható fenn. ______ This paper summarizes lead firms’ reactions to crisis in global automotive value chains. The paper advances five theses. Author argues that crisis is not over yet, the global restructuring of the industry continues. Actors in the CEE automotive cluster have successfully become integrated into global value chains and have thereby been the winners of past restructuring processes. Nevertheless, technological and market uncertainties prevail: entry of new economic actors and the diffusion of new business models may, in the long run, disrupt the current status quo and jeopardise the world economic position of CEE countries that have been relying solely on their labour cost advantages to sustain direct investment inflows in their automotive industries. In the long run the automotive industries of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies may become threatened by the transformation of the prevailing automotive business model, the outsourcing of manufacturing and related support activities to complex manufacturing services providers, which could lead to the closure of lead firms’ manufacturing facilities in CEE. Lead firms’ increased focus on high quality high value adding activities strategy can and should be followed by local subsidiaries through a continuous strive for upgrading.