Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Spectral analysis and the Aharonov-Bohm\~ effect on certain almost-Riemannian manifold

We study spectral properties of the Laplace-Beltrami operator on two relevant almost-Riemannian manifolds, namely the Grushin structures on the cylinder and on the sphere. This operator contains first order diverging terms caused by the divergence of the volume. We get explicit descriptions of the spectrum and the eigenfunctions. In particular in both cases we get a Weyl's law with leading term Elog E. We then study the drastic effect of Aharonov-Bohm magnetic potentials on the spectral properties. Other generalised Riemannian structures including conic and anti-conic type manifolds are also studied. In this case, the Aharonov-Bohm magnetic potential may affect the self-adjointness of the Laplace-Beltrami operator.

Global climatology of surface water temperatures of large lakes by remote sensing

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) of 246 globally distributed large lakes were derived from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSR) for the period 1991–2011. The climatological cycles of mean LSWT derived from these data quantify on a global scale the responses of large lakes' surface temperatures to the annual cycle of forcing by solar radiation and the ambient meteorological conditions. LSWT cycles reflect the twice annual peak in net solar radiation for lakes between 1°S to 12°N. For lakes without a lake-mean seasonal ice cover, LSWT extremes exceed air temperatures by 0.5–1.7 °C for maximum and 0.7–1.9 °C for minimum temperature. The summer maximum LSWTs of lakes from 25°S to 35°N show a linear decrease with increasing altitude; −3.76 ± 0.17 °C km−1 (inline image = 0.95), marginally lower than the corresponding air temperature decrease with altitude −4.15 ± 0.24 °C km−1 (inline image = 0.95). Lake altitude of tropical lakes account for 0.78–0.83 (inline image) of the variation in the March to June LSWT–air temperature differences, with differences decreasing by 1.9 °C as the altitude increases from 500 to 1800 m above sea level (a.s.l.) We define an ‘open water phase’ as the length of time the lake-mean LSWT remains above 4 °C. There is a strong global correlation between the start and end of the lake-mean open water phase and the spring and fall 0 °C air temperature transition days, (inline image = 0.74 and 0.80, respectively), allowing for a good estimation of timing and length of the open water phase of lakes without LSWT observations. Lake depth, lake altitude and distance from coast further explain some of the inter-lake variation in the start and end of the open water phase.

Modelling spectral reflectance of open cork oak woodland: a simulation analysis of the effects of vegetation structure and background

This study analyses the influence of vegetation structure (i.e. leaf area index and canopy cover) and seasonal background changes on moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS)-simulated reflectance data in open woodland. Approximately monthly spectral reflectance and transmittance field measurements (May 2011 to October 2013) of cork oak tree leaves (Quercus suber) and of the herbaceous understorey were recorded in the region of Ribatejo, Portugal. The geometric-optical and radiative transfer (GORT) model was used to simulate MODIS response (red, near-infrared) and to calculate vegetation indices, investigating their response to changes in the structure of the overstorey vegetation and to seasonal changes in the understorey using scenarios corresponding to contrasting phenological status (dry season vs. wet season). The performance of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) is discussed. Results showed that SAVI and EVI were very sensitive to the emergence of background vegetation in the wet season compared to NDVI and that shading effects lead to an opposing trend in the vegetation indices. The information provided by this research can be useful to improve our understanding of the temporal dynamic of vegetation, monitored by vegetation indices.

Spectral modulation detection in normal hearing children

This Capstone Project attempts to determine the ability of normal hearing children to resolve spectral information, and the relationship between spectral resolution ability and speech recognition ability in noise. This study also examines how these abilities develop with age.

Peak expiratory flow values are higher in older and taller healthy male children: An observational study

Purpose: Peak expiratory flow (PEF) was measured in healthy children aged five to ten years in order to provide baseline values and to determine correlations between PEF and factors such as gender, age and type of school. Methods: After the Ethical Committee of Research in Human of the School of Medicine of ABC - FMABC approval, PEF and height were measured in 1942 children between five and ten years old from nine public schools and nine private schools throughout Sao Bernardo do Campo City. PEF was measured using the Mini-Wright Peak Flow Meter (Clement Clarke International Ltd.) and. height was measured using a Sanny professional stadiometer. Results: Significant differences were found in values for PEF: higher values were seen in older students in comparison with younger students, in males in comparison with females and in students from private schools in comparison with public schools, with average values ranging from 206 L/min to 248 L/min,. Linear correlations were seen for PEF values with both height and age (Spearman Coefficient). Conclusions: Differences were seen for PEF between genders and between types of school, and a linear correlation was seen for PEF with both age and height in healthy children from five to ten years old.

The impact of smoke from forest fires on the spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions in the Amazonian region

In this paper, the main microphysical characteristics of clouds developing in polluted and clean conditions in the biomass-burning season of the Amazon region are examined, with special attention to the spectral dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution and its potential impact on climate modeling applications. The dispersion effect has been shown to alter the climate cooling predicted by the so-called Twomey effect. In biomass-burning polluted conditions, high concentrations of low dispersed cloud droplets are found. Clean conditions revealed an opposite situation. The liquid water content (0.43 +/- 0.19 g m(-3)) is shown to be uncorrelated with the cloud drop number concentration, while the effective radius is found to be very much correlated with the relative dispersion of the size distribution (R(2) = 0.81). The results suggest that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration from biomass-burning aerosols may lead to an additional effect caused by a decrease in relative dispersion. Since the dry season in the Amazonian region is vapor limiting, the dispersion effect of cloud droplet size distributions could be substantially larger than in other polluted regions.

Predicting spectral features in galaxy spectra from broad-band photometry

We explore the prospects of predicting emission-line features present in galaxy spectra given broad-band photometry alone. There is a general consent that colours, and spectral features, most notably the 4000 angstrom break, can predict many properties of galaxies, including star formation rates and hence they could infer some of the line properties. We argue that these techniques have great prospects in helping us understand line emission in extragalactic objects and might speed up future galaxy redshift surveys if they are to target emission-line objects only. We use two independent methods, Artificial Neural Networks (based on the ANNz code) and Locally Weighted Regression (LWR), to retrieve correlations present in the colour N-dimensional space and to predict the equivalent widths present in the corresponding spectra. We also investigate how well it is possible to separate galaxies with and without lines from broad-band photometry only. We find, unsurprisingly, that recombination lines can be well predicted by galaxy colours. However, among collisional lines some can and some cannot be predicted well from galaxy colours alone, without any further redshift information. We also use our techniques to estimate how much information contained in spectral diagnostic diagrams can be recovered from broad-band photometry alone. We find that it is possible to classify active galactic nuclei and star formation objects relatively well using colours only. We suggest that this technique could be used to considerably improve redshift surveys such as the upcoming Fibre Multi Object Spectrograph (FMOS) survey and the planned Wide Field Multi Object Spectrograph (WFMOS) survey.

Near-infrared integral field spectroscopy of the Homunculus nebula around eta Carinae using Gemini/CIRPASS

This work presents the first integral field spectroscopy of the Homunculus nebula around eta Carinae in the near-infrared spectral region (J band). We confirmed the presence of a hole on the polar region of each lobe, as indicated by previous near-IR long-slit spectra and mid-IR images. The holes can be described as a cylinder of height (i.e. the thickness of the lobe) and diameter of 6.5 and 6.0 x 10(16) cm, respectively. We also mapped the blue-shifted component of He I lambda 10830 seen towards the NW lobe. Contrary to previous works, we suggested that this blue-shifted component is not related to the Paddle but it is indeed in the equatorial disc. We confirmed the claim of N. Smith and showed that the spatial extent of the Little Homunculus matches remarkably well the radio continuum emission at 3 cm, indicating that the Little Homunculus can be regarded as a small H II region. Therefore, we used the optically thin 1.3 mm radio flux to derive a lower limit for the number of Lyman-continuum photons of the central source in eta Car. In the context of a binary system, and assuming that the ionizing flux comes entirely from the hot companion star, the lower limit for its spectral type and luminosity class ranges from O5.5 III to O7 I. Moreover, we showed that the radio peak at 1.7 arcsec NW from the central star is in the same line-of-sight of the `Sr-filament` but they are obviously spatially separated, while the blue-shifted component of He I lambda 10830 may be related to the radio peak and can be explained by the ultraviolet radiation from the companion star.

Spectral analysis and modeling of microcyclostratigraphy in late Paleozoic glaciogenic rhythmites, Parana Basin, Brazil

We investigate the depositional time scale of lithological couplets (fine sandstone/siltstone-siltstone/mudstone) from two distinctive outcrops of Permo-Carboniferous glacial rhythmites in the Itarare Group (Parana Basin, Brazil). Resolving the fundamental issue of time scale for these rhythmites is important in light of recent evidence for paleosecular variation measured in these sequences. Spectral analysis and tuning of high-resolution gray scale scans of sediment core microstratigraphy, which comprises pervasive laminations, reveal a comparable spectral content at both localities, with a frequency suite interpreted as that of short-term climate variability of Recent and modern times. This evidence for decadal- to centennial-scale deposition of these lithological couplets is discussed in light of the `varvic` character, i.e., annual time scale that was previously assumed for the rhythmites.

Comparing methods for sampling large- and medium-sized mammals: camera traps and track plots

Activities involving fauna monitoring are usually limited by the lack of resources; therefore, the choice of a proper and efficient methodology is fundamental to maximize the cost-benefit ratio. Both direct and indirect methods can be used to survey mammals, but the latter are preferred due to the difficulty to come in sight of and/or to capture the individuals, besides being cheaper. We compared the performance of two methods to survey medium and large-sized mammal: track plot recording and camera trapping, and their costs were assessed. At Jatai Ecological Station (S21 degrees 31`15 ``- W47 degrees 34`42 ``-Brazil) we installed ten camera traps along a dirt road directly in front of ten track plots, and monitored them for 10 days. We cleaned the plots, adjusted the cameras, and noted down the recorded species daily. Records taken by both methods showed they sample the local richness in different ways (Wilcoxon, T=231; p;;0.01). The track plot method performed better on registering individuals whereas camera trapping provided records which permitted more accurate species identification. The type of infra-red sensor camera used showed a strong bias towards individual body mass (R(2)=0.70; p=0.017), and the variable expenses of this method in a 10-day survey were estimated about 2.04 times higher compared to track plot method; however, in a long run camera trapping becomes cheaper than track plot recording. Concluding, track plot recording is good enough for quick surveys under a limited budget, and camera trapping is best for precise species identification and the investigation of species details, performing better for large animals. When used together, these methods can be complementary.

Partial spectral projected gradient method with active-set strategy for linearly constrained optimization

A method for linearly constrained optimization which modifies and generalizes recent box-constraint optimization algorithms is introduced. The new algorithm is based on a relaxed form of Spectral Projected Gradient iterations. Intercalated with these projected steps, internal iterations restricted to faces of the polytope are performed, which enhance the efficiency of the algorithm. Convergence proofs are given and numerical experiments are included and commented. Software supporting this paper is available through the Tango Project web page: http://www.ime.usp.br/similar to egbirgin/tango/.

Direct Observation of Tetragonal Distortion in Epitaxial Structures through Secondary Peak Split in a Synchrotron Radiation Renninger Scan

This paper reports a direct observation of an interesting split of the (022)(022) four-beam secondary peak into two (022) and (022) three-beam peaks, in a synchrotron radiation Renninger scan (phi-scan), as an evidence of the layer tetragonal distortion in two InGaP/GaAs (001) epitaxial structures with different thicknesses. The thickness, composition, (a perpendicular to) perpendicular lattice parameter, and (01) in-plane lattice parameter of the two epitaxial ternary layers were obtained from rocking curves (omega-scan) as well as from the simulation of the (022)(022) split, and then, it allowed for the determination of the perpendicular and parallel (in-plane) strains. Furthermore, (022)(022) omega:phi mappings were measured in order to exhibit the multiple diffraction condition of this four-beam case with their split measurement.

Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin

Submicron atmospheric particles in the Amazon Basin were characterized by a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer during the wet season of 2008. Patterns in the mass spectra closely resembled those of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles formed in environmental chambers from biogenic precursor gases. In contrast, mass spectral indicators of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) were insignificant, suggesting that PBAPs contributed negligibly to the submicron fraction of particles during the period of study. For 40% of the measurement periods, the mass spectra indicate that in-Basin biogenic SOA production was the dominant source of the submicron mass fraction, contrasted to other periods (30%) during which out-of-Basin organic-carbon sources were significant on top of the baseline in-Basin processes. The in-Basin periods had an average organic-particle loading of 0.6 mu g m(-3) and an average elemental oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio of 0.42, compared to 0.9 mu g m(-3) and 0.49, respectively, during periods of out-of-Basin influence. On the basis of the data, we conclude that most of the organic material composing submicron particles over the Basin derived from biogenic SOA production, a finding that is consistent with microscopy observations made in a concurrent study. This source was augmented during some periods by aged organic material delivered by long-range transport. Citation: Chen, Q., et al. (2009), Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20806, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039880.

Spectral absorption properties of aerosol particles from 350-2500nm

The aerosol spectral absorption efficiency (alpha(a) in m(2)/g) is measured over an extended wavelength range (350-2500 nm) using an improved calibrated and validated reflectance technique and applied to urban aerosol samples from Sao Paulo, Brazil and from a site in Virginia, Eastern US, that experiences transported urban/industrial aerosol. The average alpha(a) values (similar to 3m(2)/g at 550 nm) for Sao Paulo samples are 10 times larger than a a values obtained for aerosols in Virginia. Sao Paulo aerosols also show evidence of enhanced UV absorption in selected samples, probably associated with organic aerosol components. This extra UV absorption can double the absorption efficiency observed from black carbon alone, therefore reducing by up to 50% the surface UV fluxes, with important implications for climate, UV photolysis rates, and remote sensing from space. Citation: Martins, J.V., P. Artaxo, Y.J. Kaufman, A.D. Castanho, and L.A. Remer (2009), Spectral absorption properties of aerosol particles from 350-2500nm, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13810, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037435.