Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Discussion paper and working paper series : Motivations, expectations and experiences of Australian rural and regional planners

Despite playing an extremely important role in shaping communities, the role and contribution of planners is not widely understood or acknowledged. At the same time, there is a shortage of planners in Australia, especially in non-urban areas. Thus, though an online survey of 185 rural and regional planners, this research explores their motivations, expectations and experiences. Most enjoyed and felt confident in their role, explaining that they valued the relaxed family orientated rural lifestyle and the varied nature of the planning work. Although they sometimes felt isolated, the non-urban location provided quicker progression to senior roles, the ability to engage directly with the community and to see the consequences of their decisions. Only half felt their education had prepared them well for their role, citing gaps in terms of computerised modelling, team leadership and conflict resolution skills. Their feedback centred on providing a more practical course, focussing more on regional planning, and encouraging urban and rural experience placements. As the first study to quantifiably explore rural and regional Australian planners perceptions of their role and challenges, the findings illustrate current experiences, key planning challenges, perceived educational gaps and future priorities.

Governing self : SNSs as tools for self-formation

This thesis investigates how modern individuals relate to themselves and others in the service of shaping their ethical conduct and governing themselves. It considers the use of online social networking sites (SNSs) as one particular practice through which people manage their day-to-day conduct and understandings of self. Current research on the use of SNSs has conceptualised them as tools for communication, information-sharing and self-presentation. This thesis suggests a different way of thinking about these sites as tools for self-formation. A Foucaultian genealogical, historical and problematising approach is applied in order to explore processes of subjectivation and historical backgrounds involved in the use of SNSs. This is complimented with an ANT-based understanding of the role that technologies play in shaping human action. Drawing new connections between three factors will show how they contribute to the ways in which people become selves today. These factors are, one, the psychologisation and rationalisation of modern life that lead people to confess and talk about themselves in order to improve and perfect themselves, two, the transparency or publicness of modern life that incites people to reveal themselves constantly to a public audience and, three, the techno-social hybrid character of Western societies. This thesis will show how some older practices of self-formation have been translated into the context of modern technologised societies and how the care of self has been reinvigorated and combined with the notion of baring self in public. This thesis contributes a different way of thinking about self and the internet that does not seek to define what the modern self is and how it is staged online but rather accounts for the multiple, contingent and historically conditioned processes of subjectivation through which individuals relate to themselves and others in the service of governing their daily conduct.

TrainRoulette : promoting situated in-train social interaction between passengers

Travelling by public transport is usually regarded as boring and uninteresting. Refraining from talking to the stranger next to you may be due to limitations that are self-imposed and further corroborated by social expectations and cultural norms that govern behaviour in public space. Our design research into passenger interactions on board of urban commuter trains has informed the development of the TrainRoulette prototype – a mobile app for situated, real-time chats between train passengers. We study the impact of our design intervention on shaping perceptions of the train journey experience. Moreover, we are interested in the implications of such ICT-mediated interactions within train journeys for stimulating social offline interactions and new forms of passenger engagement.

Empathy : narrative empathy and children's literature

The term empathy has only existed in English for a little over a hundred years, but the idea of feeling with another person is an old one. Because of its perceived connection to moral behaviour, empathy and its development are of great interest to educators, policy makers, psychologists, and philosophers. Reading children’s literature is often considered important for developing (among other things) children’s ethical and empathic understandings of society and its people. However, claims as to the impact of reading on readers’ ability to become more empathic, tolerant, and better people are divided. While many readers may attribute positive influences that authors and texts have had on shaping their attitudes and actions, there is no guarantee that a desirable affective and cognitive response will follow the reading experience. The complexity of readers and texts refuses to be reduced to simple universal statements about the capacity of narrative empathy to create a particular kind of empathic reader or person: fiction that engages a reader with the emotional plight of a character does not necessarily translate into actions in the real world towards people who are similarly suffering, marginalized, or victimized. This chapter asks: Does children’s literature foster empathy? There are two implicit features of this question: one concerns narrative empathy; the other concerns empathic reader response. The discussion will focus on how a selection of ‘multicultural’ picture books attempts to create narrative empathy by focussing on cultural and spatial differences.

Pre-service Physical Education teachers and concerns regarding their ability to successfully facilitate school-based physical activity promotion strategies

Regular physical activity (PA) in youth has numerous immediate and long-term health benefits. With several studies indicating low levels of youth PA globally, schools settings have become increasingly critical settings for youth health promotion strategies. The role of physical education (PE) teachers has long been considered central to the facilitation of such strategies. However, PE teachers have a selfreported lack of knowledge, skills, understanding, and competence to successfully implement these strategies. Tertiary education programs are fundamental to adequately preparing, and shaping the attitudes and philosophies of future PE teachers towards their involvement within these programs. The aim of this investigation was to explore the beliefs and perceptions of future secondary school PE teachers, regarding their potential roles in future school-based programs designed to promote student PA. Fifty-seven (21 males and 36 females) pre-service PE teachers completed a series of open-ended survey questions concerning their perceptions towards participating in school-based PA promotion programs both as preservice during practicum, and prospectively as practising teachers. Responses were analysed thematically. Participants responded both positively and enthusiastically to both questions. Concerns regarding time, and the intention or expectation to participate in such programs were also key themes for pre-service and practicing teacher participation respectively. Critically in this study, participants did not identify any limitations which may impact upon their ability to successfully promote youth PA in school settings. This may indicate that participants have misconceptions regarding their ability to fulfil this role, or conversely, the deficiency of current PE teachers regarding school-based PA promotion has been recognised by the tertiary institution, and addressed to adequately prepare its students. School-based PA promotion is an integral element of pre-service PE teacher education, and ongoing professional development of practicing PE teachers. This trend is expected to continue in the future, in order to address ongoing public health concerns.

Cultivating creative ecologies : creative teaching and teaching for creativity

Australian universities now commonly list creativity amongst the generic attributes that graduates are expected to have achieved or demonstrated upon graduation. While this reflects emerging local and global trends to encourage creativity at every educational level, creativity as a generic capability has special difficulties. These include problems of definition, its perceived value, the gap between espoused beliefs and practice, and tensions between standards and accreditation agendas and the desire to embed creative outcomes in the curriculum. Contextual and disciplinary differences also shape the expression of creative teaching and teaching for creativity. This paper explores these issues, acknowledging the role of information and communications technologies in shaping the technology-enhanced learning spaces where creativity may emerge. Csikszentmihalyi’s model of creativity as a system of interactions is presented as a useful foundation for furthering the discourse in this domain, along with the notion of creative ecologies as spaces for effecting change.

Quantifying spatial structure in experimental observations and agent-based simulations using pair-correlation functions

We define a pair-correlation function that can be used to characterize spatiotemporal patterning in experimental images and snapshots from discrete simulations. Unlike previous pair-correlation functions, the pair-correlation functions developed here depend on the location and size of objects. The pair-correlation function can be used to indicate complete spatial randomness, aggregation or segregation over a range of length scales, and quantifies spatial structures such as the shape, size and distribution of clusters. Comparing pair-correlation data for various experimental and simulation images illustrates their potential use as a summary statistic for calibrating discrete models of various physical processes.

No hiding place

As public and private space becomes a focus for development values, contests occur between the unequal parties having a stake in the use of public space, such as central and local government, young people, communities and site developers. It is within the monitoring, recording and control procedures that young people’s use of public space is constructed as a threat to social order in need of surveillance and exclusion. This forms a major and contemporary feature in shaping thinking about urban and rural working class young people in the UK.

Controlling buoyancy-driven profiling floats for applications in ocean observation

Establishing a persistent presence in the ocean with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) capable of observing temporal variability of large-scale ocean processes requires a unique sensor platform. In this paper, we examine the utility of vehicles that can only control their depth in the water column for such extended deployments. We present a strategy that utilizes ocean model predictions to facilitate a basic level of autonomy and enables general control for these profiling floats. The proposed method is based on experimentally validated techniques for utilizing ocean current models to control autonomous gliders. With the appropriate vertical actuation, and utilizing spatio–temporal variations in water speed and direction, we show that general controllability results can be met. First, we apply an A* planner to a local controllability map generated from predictions of ocean currents. This computes a path between start and goal waypoints that has the highest likelihood of successful execution. A computed depth plan is generated with a model-predictive controller (MPC), and selects the depths for the vehicle so that ambient currents guide it toward the goal. Mission constraints are included to simulate and motivate a practical data collection mission. Results are presented in simulation for a mission off the coast of Los Angeles, CA, USA, that show encouraging results in the ability of a drifting vehicle to reach a desired location.

The Rise of the BASIC Group Within the International Climate Regime : The Challenge of Ensuring Equitable Mitigation Obligations

The chapter examines the current emission reduction obligations within the climate regime. It looks at the formation and rise of the BASIC negotiation group within the international climate COP negotiations and examines the role that BASIC nations are now playing shaping international mitigation policy.

The Cairns abortion trial : deviance, stigma and the spoiled identity

In 2010 a couple in Cairns were charged, and later found not guilty, of illegally obtaining a medical abortion through the use of medication imported from overseas. The court case reignited the contentious debate surrounding the illegality and social acceptance of abortion in Queensland, Australia. Based on a critical discourse analysis of 150 online news media articles covering the Cairns trial, this paper argues that the media shapes perceptions of deviance and stigma in relation to abortion through the use of language. In this case, the Cairns couple were positioned as deviant for pursuing abortion on the basis that they were rejecting the social norm of motherhood. This paper identifies three key themes evident in the articles analysed which contribute to shaping the construction of deviance – the humanising of the foetus, the stereotyping of the traditional female role of mother, and the demonising of women who choose abortion. This paper argues that the use of specific language in media coverage of abortion has the power to disrespect and invalidate the experiences, rights, and health of women who choose to terminate pregnancies.

The Politics of Sex Trafficking : a Moral Geography

This book offers a unique insight into the moral politics behind the making of human trafficking policy in Australia and the United States of America. As governments around the world rush to meet their international obligations to combat human trafficking, a heated debate has emerged over the rights, wrongs, and harms of prostitution, and its relationship to sex trafficking. The Politics of Sex Trafficking identifies and challenges intrinsic notions of moral harm that have pervaded trafficking discourse and resulted in a distinctly anti-prostitution agenda in trafficking policy in recent decades. Including rare interviews with key political actors, this book charts the competing perspectives of feminist, faith-based, and sex-worker activists, and their efforts to influence policy-makers. This critical account of the creation of anti-trafficking policy challenges the sex trafficking narrative dominant in US Congressional and Australian Parliamentary hearings, and demonstrates the power of a moral politics in shaping policy. This book will appeal to academics across the fields of criminology, criminal justice, law, human rights and gender studies, as well as policy-makers.

Cultural politics and iconography : an introduction

This collection of papers reflects on the many dimensions of contemporary narratives of iconography in public culture in Australia and Asia. The idea for the volume arose from a series of seminars held at the Centre for Cross-Cultural Research in 2002. The series ‘Iconographies’ was convened by Penny Edwards and centred on research undertaken in the Asia-Pacific, with papers that interrogated national and cultural icons. Just as a biography might examine the makings of a particular personality and her or his shaping of inner and outer worlds, so also iconographic narratives that trace and explore both the evolution and appropriation of particular icons help us mark key moments in the cultural politics of communities, nations and global public spheres. The present volume has two papers (Taylor and Seth) from that series and others on the themes of iconography and iconoclasm that were solicited from a group of interdisciplinary authors working on these themes.

Investigation of the intensity dependence of amplitude noise in electro-optic phase modulators

This thesis studied the source of instability in optical phase modulators used in high accuracy laser measurement systems. The nonlinear origin of the amplitude noise helped further reducing this instability in applications that rely on phase modulators to function. This outcome will have positive impacts on the development of new methods in the amplitude noise suppression.