Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The systematics and biology of the south African gall-inducing scale insect, Calycicoccus merwei brain (Hemiptera : Coccoidea : Eriococcidae)

The scale insect genus Calycicoccus Brain has a single described species, C. merwei Brain, which is endemic to southeastern South Africa. Females of C. merwei induce small, mostly conical galls on the foliage of their host tree, Apodytes dimidiata E. Meyer ex Arn. (Icacinaceae), which has a wider, mostly coastal distribution, than that currently known for the scale insect. Calycicoccus has been placed in the family Eriococcidae and may be related to the South American genus Aculeococcus Lepage. No other native eriococcid species have been described so far in South Africa, although the family is diverse in other Gondwanan regions. This paper summarizes the biology of C. merwei, redescribes the adult female, describes the adult male, the second-instar female and the first-instar nymphs for the first time, and reconsiders the phylogenetic relationships of the genus. The adult female is shown to have unusual abdominal segmentation, in that segment I is present both dorsally and ventrally, but a segment is absent ventrally on the middle abdomen. First-instar nymphs are sexually dimorphic; males have a larger and relatively narrower body, larger mouthparts, longer antennae and legs, and more thoracic dorsal setae compared with females. Molecular data from nuclear small-subunit ribosomal DNA (18S) and elongation factor 1 alpha (EF-1a) show C. merwei to have no close relatives among the Eriococcidae sampled to date. Instead, the Calycicoccus lineage is part of a polytomy near the base of the Eriococcidae. Molecular dating of the node suggests that the Calycicoccus lineage diverged from other eriococcids more than 100 Mya. These data support the placement of Calycicoccus as the only genus in the subfamily Calycicoccinae Brain.

Ecological criteria for evaluating candidate sites for marine reserves

Several schemes have been developed to help select the locations of marine reserves. All of them combine social, economic, and biological criteria, and few offer any guidance as to how to prioritize among the criteria identified. This can imply that the relative weights given to different criteria are unimportant. Where two sites are of equal value ecologically; then socioeconomic criteria should dominate the choice of which should be protected. However, in many cases, socioeconomic criteria are given equal or greater weight than ecological considerations in the choice of sites. This can lead to selection of reserves with little biological value that fail to meet many of the desired objectives. To avoid such a possibility, we develop a series of criteria that allow preliminary evaluation of candidate sites according to their relative biological values in advance of the application of socioeconomic criteria. We include criteria that,. while not strictly biological, have a strong influence on the species present or ecological processes. Out scheme enables sites to be assessed according to their biodiversity, the processes which underpin that diversity, and the processes that support fisheries and provide a spectrum of other services important to people. Criteria that capture biodiversity values include biogeographic representation, habitat representation and heterogeneity, and presence of species or populations of special interest (e.g., threatened species). Criteria that capture sustainability of biodiversity and fishery values include the size of reserves necessary to protect viable habitats, presence of exploitable species, vulnerable life stages, connectivity among reserves, links among ecosystems, and provision of ecosystem services to people. Criteria measuring human and natural threats enable candidate sites to be eliminated from consideration if risks are too great, but also help prioritize among sites where threats can be mitigated by protection. While our criteria can be applied to the design of reserve networks, they also enable choice of single reserves to be made in the context of the attributes of existing protected areas. The overall goal of our scheme is to promote the development of reserve networks that will maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning at large scales. The values of eco-system goods and services for people ultimately depend on meeting this objective.

Brazil's strategic partnerships: an assessment of the Lula era (2003-2010)

This article examines the priority bilateral relations of Brazil, named "strategic partnerships", both because of their tradition and historical relevance and due to the existence of political and economic cooperation projects. An assessment of these relationships, especially under Lula's administration, is made in this work, bearing in mind the concept of "strategic partnerships" and its development in Brazilian foreign policy. There will be considered partnerships with the US; Argentina; Japan; China; India; South Africa and the European Union. In the article, the meaning of the increase in these relationships is interpreted on the grounds of its significance to the international insertion strategy of Brazil

O papel da Organização das Nações Unidas em Angola

RESUMO: Angola tem sido ao longo dos tempos objecto de cobiça por parte de países estrangeiros por motivações diversas, que foram desde interesses coloniais – como aconteceu com Portugal, que durante séculos a colonizou, e da Holanda, que dominou Luanda entre 1641 e 1648 – ou por interesses hegemónicos, ideológicos e políticos – como sucedeu com os EUA e a URSS, mas também com a Republica Popular da China e Cuba – e até por interesses regionais – como foram os casos da África do Sul e dos contíguos Congo Belga, hoje Republica Democrática do Congo, e Zâmbia. No entanto, a todos estes interesses diversos não se pode excluir um que lhes é transversal: o interesse económico. De facto, os 1246700 km² de que Angola dispõe, aliados à sua excelente localização geográfica com uma extensa costa atlântica e a sua extraordinária riqueza em recursos naturais podem explicar este envolvimento estrangeiro na História de Angola. No que diz respeito ao objecto da Dissertação, o envolvimento da ONU nas questões relacionadas com Angola remonta à década de 50, ou seja, ao período colonial e muito antes da independência do país em 1975, devido à política descolonizadora saída da II Guerra Mundial. Além disso, a dinâmica que emergiu da II Guerra Mundial, rapidamente, reconfigurou o panorama político internacional em dois blocos: o ocidental liderado pelos EUA e o de Leste liderado pela URSS, que se envolveram numa Guerra Fria, polarização cujos efeitos se ligam de forma trágica à guerra em Angola, primeiro para a autodeterminação, e, depois, já num contexto de independência, num conflito armado que ultrapassou o plano interno. Os interesses dos EUA e da URSS, que começaram por ser antagónicos, deram lugar em 1989 com o fim da bipolaridade a uma cooperação mais aberta e uma abertura política em Angola rumo à paz e ao início da construção da democracia. Neste trabalho estuda-se o papel da ONU em Angola, quer no período de luta pela independência, quer depois, na busca da paz no sangrento conflito – nem sempre civil – que mesmo antes da data da independência, a 11 de Novembro de 1975, e até Fevereiro de 2002, dilacerou o país. Procura-se, igualmente, analisar o contributo da ONU na consolidação das instituições e na construção de um regime democrático em Angola. ABSTRACT: Angola has been along time subject to the greed of several foreign countries for many reasons and motivations which go from colonial interests - that is the cases of, Portugal which for centuries colonized it, and Netherlands under whose administration had been Luanda between 1641 and 1648 - or for hegemonic, ideological and political interests - as it happened in regard to USA and USSR, but also People‟s Republic of China, Cuba, - and even for regional interests - regarding South Africa Republic, and the neighbouring countries, Democratic Republic of Congo (ancient Republic of the Congo “Leopoldville”), and the Republic of Zambia. On the other hand to these interests we may join another which is transversal to all of them: economic interest. Effectively, Angola‟s 481,351 square miles (1,246,700 Km2) estimated area, combined with its excellent geographical location with a lengthy Atlantic coast, its extraordinary richness in natural resources may well explain this foreign participation in its Political History. Concerning the objective of this work, the UN has been involved in matters regarding Angola since the decade of 50 of the last century, during the colonial period, long before the independence of the country in 1975, due to the decolonization policy emerged from the Second World War. Furthermore, after the Second World War, international environment has changed, transforming quickly the world into two main blocs, the West with the leadership of the USA and the East with the leadership of USSR which went into a Cold War. The effects of this polarization reached tragically Angola, early in the fight for self-determination, and went on later after independence in an armed conflict, which has overcome the internal dimension. The USA and USSR interests, at the beginning being antagonistic had become by 1989, with the end of bipolarity, more cooperative, leading Angola to a political reform towards peace and beginning the construction of democracy. In this academic work it‟s studied the UNO role in Angola since the fight for self-determination early in the sixties of last century, and later in the search for peace during the bloody - and not always civil – war conflict which very before independence date in 11th November 1975, and as long as 2002, divided the country. Additionally, this work aims to understand the UNO contribution to consolidate institutions and to promote democracy in Angola.

Drivers of China's foreign direct investment into Africa

We assess the determinants of Chinese direct investment in Africa compared with those of global FDI. We find that economic size and macroeconomic stability are positively correlated with Chinese and global FDI in Africa. Institutional variables, such as accountability and rule of law, are not significant in either case and the same can be said about FDI-aid complementarities. The presence of oil is a determinant of Chinese FDI but not of global FDI into Africa. Conversely, the openness of the economy is a determinant for global FDI but not of Chinese FDI, which appears to favour closed economies possibly due to industrial organizational concerns. While these differences accord with intuition, we find no evidence for the claim that Chinese FDI in Africa is related to non-economic governance in a specific way that differs from global practice. More refined governance indicators should be used to verify whether Chinese and global FDI into Africa remain indistinguishable on this score: we plan to do this in future research.

The economic crisis in Portugal and children’s rights to non-discrimination

The consequences that arose from the ‘global economy’ have been significant in Portuguese children’s lives and we believe it is fundamental to reflect on the ongoing structuring of childhood through this global culture/ideology and the concrete implications that they have. It is also important to understand how childhood is constructed and experienced, as well as to consider the impacts of political economic conditions on children’s lives and in childhood in general, taking into account the effects brought on by public policies. The aim of this paper is to reflect on the ways through which the economic crisis affecting the general Portuguese population has impacted children in particular and promoted discrimination and a lack of opportunities in childhood. We will focus on two dimensions: first, on general data about the ongoing policies that have been reducing social rights, increasing poverty rates and threatening basic rights such as educational and health rights, to show their impact on children´s lives. Second, we will discuss some data collected with children throughout different research projects in order to characterize the meanings and impacts of the crisis in their lives from their points of view

Rhetoric on the economy: have European parties changed their economic messages?

This study analyses the determinants of dispersion of economic issue mentions in European party manifestos. We examined three main economic domains (governmental control of the economy, free market capitalism and support for the welfare state) as consequences of globalization forces, economic conditions, partisanship and electoral turnout. Employing aggregate-level Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) data from legislative elections in 15 European countries from 1970 to 2010, we confirm that parties hold a common view of the salience of economic control of the state as a consequence of globalization pressure and economic growth levels. Partisanship of the cabinets (regardless of the political orientation) counteracted issue salience concentration in the welfare domain. Government size favoured dispersion in the free market realm. Our results do not indicate clear homogenization of parties’ economic messages in elections over the last 40 years.

Energy from waste (EfW): a feasibility study on the economic and the environmental co-benefits of biogas production within rural communities

Energy from waste (E/W) technologies in the form o f biogas plants, CHP plants and other municipal solid waste (MSW) conversion technologies, have been gaining steady ground in the provision o f energy throughout Europe and the UK. Urban Waste Water Treatment Plants (UWWTP) are utilising much o f the same biochemical processes common to these E/W plants. Previous studies on Centralised Anaerobic Digestion (CAD) within Ireland found that the legislative and economic conditions were not conducive to such an operation on the grounds o f low energy price for electric and heat energy, and due to the restrictive nature o f the allowable feedstocks. Recent changes to the Irish REFIT tariff on energy produced from Anaerobic digestion; alterations to the regulation o f the allowable use o f animal by products(ABP); the recent enactment o f the Renewable Energy D irective (09/28/EC) and a subsequent review o f the draft Biowaste Directive (2001) required that the issue o f decentralised energy production in Ireland be reassessed. In this instance the feasibility study is based on a extant rural community, centred around the village o f Woodford Co Galway. The review found that the prevailing conditions were now such that it was technically and economically feasible for this biochemical process to provide energy and waste treatment facilities at the above location. The review also outlines the last item which is preventing this process from becoming achievable, specifically the lack o f a digestate regulation on land spreading which deals specifically with biowaste. The study finds that the implementation o f the draft EU biowaste regulations, with amendments for Cr and Hg levels to match the proposed Irish regulation for compost, would ensure that Ireland has some o f the most restrictive regulations in Europe for this application. The delay in completing this piece o f legislation is preventing national energy and waste issues from being resolved in a planned and stepwise fashion. A proposed lay out for the new Integrated Waste from Energy Plant (IW/EP) is presented. Budget economic projections and alternative revenue streams are outlined. Finally a review o f the national policies regarding the Rural Development Plan (RDP), the Rural Planning Guidelines (RPG) and the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) are examined against the relevant EU directives.

Annals of the South African Museum. Annale van die Suid-Afrikaanse Museum.

v.16:pt.1-3 (1917-1933)

Annals of the South African Museum. Annale van die Suid-Afrikaanse Museum.

v.3:pt.1-9 (1903-1905)

Annals of the South African Museum. Annale van die Suid-Afrikaanse Museum.

v.6:pt.1-4 (1908-1911)

Annals of the South African Museum. Annale van die Suid-Afrikaanse Museum.

v.12:pt.1-8 (1913-1924)

Annals of the South African Museum. Annale van die Suid-Afrikaanse Museum.

v.1:pt.1-3 (1898-1899)