Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps – solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from C-14 and Be-10 records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets

The meter-per-second precision achieved by today’s velocimeters enables us to search for 1−10 M⊕ planets in the habitable zone of cool stars. This paper reports on the detection of three planets orbiting GJ 163 (HIP 19394), a M3 dwarf monitored by our ESO/HARPS search for planets. We made use of the HARPS spectrograph to collect 150 radial velocities of GJ 163 over a period of eight years. We searched the radial-velocity time series for coherent signals and found five distinct periodic variabilities. We investigated the stellar activity and called into question the planetary interpretation for two signals. Before more data can be acquired we concluded that at least three planets are orbiting GJ 163. They have orbital periods of Pb = 8.632 ± 0.002, Pc = 25.63 ± 0.03, and Pd = 604 ± 8 days and minimum masses msini = 10.6 ± 0.6, 6.8 ± 0.9, and 29 ± 3 M⊕, respectively. We hold our interpretations for the two additional signals with periods P(e) = 19.4 and P(f) = 108 days. The inner pair presents an orbital period ratio of 2.97, but a dynamical analysis of the system shows that it lays outside the 3:1 mean motion resonance. The planet GJ 163c, in particular, is a super-Earth with an equilibrium temperature of Teq = (302 ± 10)(1 − A)1/4 K and may lie in the so-called habitable zone for albedo values (A = 0.34 − 0.89) moderately higher than that of Earth (A⊕ = 0.2−0.3).

Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium

There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age1. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation2. Changes in the return limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are reflected in water properties at the base of the mixed layer south of Iceland. Here we reconstruct thermocline temperature and salinity in this region from AD 818 to 1780 using paired δ18O and Mg/Ca ratio measurements of foraminifer shells from a subdecadally resolved marine sediment core. The reconstructed centennial-scale variations in hydrography correlate with variability in total solar irradiance. We find a similar correlation in a simulation of climate over the past 1,000 years. We infer that the hydrographic changes probably reflect variability in the strength of the subpolar gyre associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. Specifically, in the simulation, low solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events, in which a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. We conclude that this process could have contributed to the consecutive cold winters documented in Europe during the Little Ice Age.

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

Solar Forcing Recorded by Aerosol Concentrations in Coastal Antarctic Glacier Ice, McMurdo Dry Valleys

Ice-core chemistry data from Victoria Lower Glacier, Antarctica, suggest, at least for the last 50 years, a direct influence of solar activity variations on the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) climate system via controls on air-mass input from two competing environments: the East Antarctic ice sheet and the Ross Sea. During periods of increased solar activity, when total solar irradiance is relatively high, the MDV climate system appears to be dominated by air masses originating from the Ross Sea, leading to higher aerosol deposition. During reduced solar activity, the Antarctic interior seems to be the dominant air-mass source, leading to lower aerosol concentration in the ice-core record. We propose that the sensitivity of the MDV to variations in solar irradiance is caused by strong albedo differences between the ice-free MDV and the ice sheet.

CODE’s new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009–2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft’s solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which substantially reduces the spurious signals in the geocenter coordinate z (by about a factor of 2–6), reduces the orbit misclosures at the day boundaries by about 10 %, slightly improves the consistency of the estimated ERPs with those of the IERS 08 C04 Earth rotation series, and substantially reduces the systematics in the SLR validation of the GNSS orbits.

Cosmogenic 180W variations in meteorites and re-assessment of a possible 184Os–180W decay system

We measured tungsten (W) isotopes in 23 iron meteorites and the metal phase of the CB chondrite Gujba in order to ascertain if there is evidence for a large-scale nucleosynthetic heterogeneity in the p-process isotope 180W in the solar nebula as recently suggested by Schulz et al. (2013). We observed large excesses in 180W (up to ≈ 6 ε) in some irons. However, significant within-group variations in magmatic IIAB and IVB irons are not consistent with a nucleosynthetic origin, and the collateral effects on 180W from an s-deficit in IVB irons cannot explain the total variation. We present a new model for the combined effects of spallation and neutron capture reactions on 180W in iron meteorites and show that at least some of the observed within-group variability is explained by cosmic ray effects. Neutron capture causes burnout of 180W, whereas spallation reactions lead to positive shifts in 180W. These effects depend on the target composition and cosmic-ray exposure duration; spallation effects increase with Re/W and Os/W ratios in the target and with exposure age. The correlation of 180W/184W with Os/W ratios in iron meteorites results in part from spallogenic production of 180W rather than from 184Os decay, contrary to a recent study by Peters et al. (2014). Residual ε180W excesses after correction for an s-deficit and for cosmic ray effects may be due to ingrowth of 180W from 184Os decay, but the magnitude of this ingrowth is at least a factor of ≈2 smaller than previously suggested. These much smaller effects strongly limit the applicability of the putative 184Os-180W system to investigate geological problems.

A database of multi-year (2004-2010) quality-assured surface solar hourly irradiation measurements for the Egyptian territory

A database containing the global and diffuse components of the surface solar hourly irradiation measured from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2010 at eight stations of the Egyptian Meteorological Authority is presented. For three of these sites (Cairo, Aswan, and El-Farafra), the direct component is also available. In addition, a series of meteorological variables including surface pressure, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed and direction is provided at the same hourly resolution at all stations. The details of the experimental sites and instruments used for the acquisition are given. Special attention is paid to the quality of the data and the procedure applied to flag suspicious or erroneous measurements is described in details. Between 88 and 99% of the daytime measurements are validated by this quality control. Except at Barrani where the number is lower (13500), between 20000 and 29000 measurements of global and diffuse hourly irradiation are available at all sites for the 7-year period. Similarly, from 9000 to 13000 measurements of direct hourly irradiation values are provided for the three sites where this component is measured. With its high temporal resolution this consistent irradiation and meteorological database constitutes a reliable source to estimate the potential of solar energy in Egypt. It is also adapted to the study of high-frequency atmospheric processes such as the impact of aerosols on atmospheric radiative transfer. In the next future, it is planned to complete regularly the present 2004-2010 database.

Giant clams and rising CO2: light may ameliorate effects of ocean acidification on a solar-powered animal

Global climate change and ocean acidification pose a serious threat to marine life. Marine invertebrates are particularly susceptible to ocean acidification, especially highly calcareous taxa such as molluscs, echinoderms and corals. The largest of all bivalve molluscs, giant clams, are already threatened by a variety of local pressures, including overharvesting, and are in decline worldwide. Several giant clam species are listed as 'Vulnerable' on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and now climate change and ocean acidification pose an additional threat to their conservation. Unlike most other molluscs, giant clams are 'solar-powered' animals containing photosynthetic algal symbionts suggesting that light could influence the effects of ocean acidification on these vulnerable animals. In this study, juvenile fluted giant clams Tridacna squamosa were exposed to three levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) (control ~400, mid ~650 and high ~950 µatm) and light (photosynthetically active radiation 35, 65 and 304 µmol photons/m**2/s). Elevated CO2 projected for the end of this century (~650 and ~950 µatm) reduced giant clam survival and growth at mid-light levels. However, effects of CO2 on survival were absent at high-light, with 100% survival across all CO2 levels. Effects of CO2 on growth of surviving clams were lessened, but not removed, at high-light levels. Shell growth and total animal mass gain were still reduced at high-CO2. This study demonstrates the potential for light to alleviate effects of ocean acidification on survival and growth in a threatened calcareous marine invertebrate. Managing water quality (e.g. turbidity and sedimentation) in coastal areas to maintain water clarity may help ameliorate some negative effects of ocean acidification on giant clams and potentially other solar-powered calcifiers, such as hard corals.

Solar UV irradiances modulate effects of ocean acidification on the Coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi

Emiliania huxleyi, the most abundant coccolithophorid in the oceans, is naturally exposed to solar UV radiation (UVR, 280-400 nm) in addition to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). We investigated the physiological responses of E. huxleyi to the present day and elevated CO2 (390 vs 1000 µatm; with pH(NBS) 8.20 vs 7.86) under indoor constant PAR and fluctuating solar radiation with or without UVR. Enrichment of CO2 stimulated the production rate of particulate organic carbon (POC) under constant PAR, but led to unchanged POC production under incident fluctuating solar radiation. The production rates of particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) as well as PIC/POC ratios were reduced under the elevated CO2, ocean acidification (OA) condition, regardless of PAR levels, and the presence of UVR. However, moderate levels of UVR increased PIC production rates and PIC/POC ratios. OA treatment interacted with UVR to influence the alga's physiological performance, leading to reduced specific growth rate in the presence of UVA (315-400 nm) and decreased quantum yield, along with enhanced nonphotochemical quenching, with addition of UVB (280-315 nm). The results clearly indicate that UV radiation needs to be invoked as a key stressor when considering the impacts of ocean acidification on E. huxleyi.

Alleviation of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR)-induced photoinhibition in diatom Chaetoceros curvisetus by ocean acidification

The study aimed to unravel the interaction between ocean acidification and solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in Chaetoceros curvisetus. Chaetoceros curvisetus cells were acclimated to high CO2 (HC, 1000 ppmv) and low CO2 concentration (control, LC, 380 ppmv) for 14 days. Cell density, specific growth rate and chlorophyll were measured. The acclimated cells were then exposed to PAB (photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) + UV-A + UV-B), PA (PAR + UV-A) or P (PAR) for 60 min. Photochemical efficiency (phi PSII), relative electron transport rate (rETR) and the recovery of ?PSII were determined. HC induced higher cell density and specific growth rate compared with LC. However, no difference was found in chlorophyll between HC and LC. Moreover, phi PSII and rETRs were higher under HC than LC in response to solar UVR. P exposure led to faster recovery of phi PSII, both under HC and LC, than PA and PAB exposure. It appeared that harmful effects of UVR on C. curvisetus could be counteracted by ocean acidification simulated by high CO2 when the effect of climate change is not beyond the tolerance of cells.

The lead salt quantum dot intermediate band solar cell

We propose a new kind of quantum dot (QD) materials for the implementation of the intermediate band solar cell (IBSC) [1]. The materials are formed by lead salt QDs of the family IV-VI (PbTe, PbSe or PbS) embedded in a semiconductor of the family II-VI (Cd1-xMgxTe, CdxZn1-xTe, and CdS1-xSex or ZnSe1-xTex, respectively). These QDs are not nucleated due to lattice mismatch, as it is the case of the InAs/GaAs QD material system grown by the Stranski-Krastanov (S-K) mode. In these materials, the QDs precipitate due to the difference in lattice type: the QD lead salt material crystallizes in the rocksalt structure, while the II-VI host material has the zincblende structure [2]. Therefore, it is possible to use lattice-matched QD/host combinations, avoiding all the strain-related problems found in previous QD-IBSC developments. In this paper we discuss the properties of the lead salt QD materials and propose that they are appropriate to overcome the fundamental drawbacks of present III-V-based QD-IBSC prototypes. We also calculate the band diagram for some examples of IV-VI/II-VI QD materials. The detailed balance efficiency limit of QD-IBSCs based on the studied materials is found to be over 60% under maximum concentration.