986 resultados para Small-error approximation
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In Brazil, surveillance studies on antiretroviral drug resistance among drug-naïve and treatment-experienced patients have focused primarily on patients living in large urban centers. As the epidemic spreads towards small municipalities and the innermost parts of the country, it will be essential to monitor the prevalence of antiretroviral drug resistance in these areas. We report the first survey on the prevalence of antiretroviral drug resistance in a small Brazilian municipality. Between July 1999 and March 2005, 72 adult human immunodeficiency virus type-1(HIV-1)-infected patients received care at the Municipal HIV/AIDS Program of the small, southeastern municipality of Miracema, state of Rio de Janeiro. A genotyping study of antiretroviral drug resistance was performed in 54 patients. Among 27 samples from treatment-experienced patients, 9 (33.3%) harbored strains with reduced drug susceptibility. Among these, 6 had reduced susceptibility to reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitors and 3 to both RT and protease inhibitors. No primary antiretroviral drug resistance was recorded among 27 drug-naïve subjects. The relatively low prevalence of resistance mutations in the Miracema cohort argues against the concern that resource-poor settings should not implement widespread accessibility to standard of care antiretroviral combinations due to the possibility of sub-optimal adherence leading to the emergence and spread of drug-resistant strains.
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This leaflet is given to all men who have attended screening through the Northern Ireland Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) Screening Programme and been diagnosed with a small AAA.The leaflet provides: �background information on the AAA screening programme; details on what a small AAA is; information on the monitoring process to regularly check the size of the AAA;lifestyle advice that may help those men diagnosed with an AAA. �Men who have been diagnosed with a small AAA will be invited to a monitoring scan once a year, unless their AAA increases in size to a medium AAA, at which point they will be invited to a monitoring scan once every three months.
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The weak selection approximation of population genetics has made possible the analysis of social evolution under a considerable variety of biological scenarios. Despite its extensive usage, the accuracy of weak selection in predicting the emergence of altruism under limited dispersal when selection intensity increases remains unclear. Here, we derive the condition for the spread of an altruistic mutant in the infinite island model of dispersal under a Moran reproductive process and arbitrary strength of selection. The simplicity of the model allows us to compare weak and strong selection regimes analytically. Our results demonstrate that the weak selection approximation is robust to moderate increases in selection intensity and therefore provides a good approximation to understand the invasion of altruism in spatially structured population. In particular, we find that the weak selection approximation is excellent even if selection is very strong, when either migration is much stronger than selection or when patches are large. Importantly, we emphasize that the weak selection approximation provides the ideal condition for the invasion of altruism, and increasing selection intensity will impede the emergence of altruism. We discuss that this should also hold for more complicated life cycles and for culturally transmitted altruism. Using the weak selection approximation is therefore unlikely to miss out on any demographic scenario that lead to the evolution of altruism under limited dispersal.
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Small nuclear RNAs (snRNAs) are important factors in the functioning of eukaryotic cells that form several small complexes with proteins; these ribonucleoprotein particles (U snRNPs) have an essential role in the pre-mRNA processing, particularly in splicing, catalyzed by spliceosomes, large RNA-protein complexes composed of various snRNPs. Even though they are well defined in mammals, snRNPs are still not totally characterized in certain trypanosomatids as Trypanosoma cruzi. For this reason we subjected snRNAs (U2, U4, U5, and U6) from T. cruzi epimastigotes to molecular characterization by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and reverse transcription-PCR. These amplified sequences were cloned, sequenced, and compared with those other of trypanosomatids. Among these snRNAs, U5 was less conserved and U6 the most conserved. Their respective secondary structures were predicted and compared with known T. brucei structures. In addition, the copy number of each snRNA in the T. cruzi genome was characterized by Southern blotting.
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PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to compare magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) and video capsule endoscopy (VCE) in suspected small bowel disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nineteen patients with suspected small bowel disease participated in a prospective clinical comparison of MRE versus VCE. Both methods were evaluated separately and in conjunction with respect to a combined diagnostic endpoint based on clinical, laboratory, surgical, and histopathological findings. The Fisher's exact and j tests were used in comparing MRE and VCE. RESULTS: Small bowel pathologies were found in 15 out of 19 patients: Crohn's disease (n= 5), lymphoma (n= 4), lymphangioma (n= 1), adenocarcinoma (n= 1), postradiation enteropathy (n= 1), NSAID-induced enteropathy (n =1), angiodysplasia (n= 1), and small bowel adhesions (n= 1). VCE and MRE separately and in conjunction showed sensitivities of 92.9, 71.4, and 100% and specificities of 80, 60, and 80% (kappa= 0.73 vs. kappa = 0.29; P= 0.31/kappa = 0.85), respectively. In four patients, VCE depicted mucosal pathologies missed by MRE. MRE revealed 19 extraenteric findings in 11 patients as well as small bowel adhesions not detected on VCE (n= 1). CONCLUSION: VCE can readily depict and characterize subtle mucosal lesions missed at MRE, whereas MRE yields additional mural, perienteric, and extraenteric information. Thus, VCE and MRE appear to be complementary methods which, when used in conjunction, may better characterize suspected small bowel disease.
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We recently performed a molecular epidemiology survey of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in Miracema, a small city in Southeast Brazil, and found multiple monophyletic clusters, consistent with independent introductions and spread of different viral lineages in the city. Here we apply Bayesian coalescent-based methods to the two largest subtype B clusters and estimate that the most recent common ancestors that gave rise to these two transmission chains were in circulation around 1991-1992. The finding that HIV-1 spread in this Brazilian small city was already taking place at a time Aids was considered a problem restricted to large urban centers may have important public health implications.
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Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.
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As part of an ongoing study on the features of AIDS spread towards small cities and rural areas, we present a molecular survey of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) polymerase sequences recovered between 2004 and 2006 from 71 patients receiving care in the city of Saquarema, inner state of Rio de Janeiro. Phylogenetic reconstructions found the two prevalent lineages in the state (subtypes B [59 strains, 83.1%], F1 [6 strains; 8.4%], and BF1 recombinants [four strains; 5.6%]), as well as two (2.8%) CRF02_AG strains, which seems to be an emerging lineage in the capital. These CRF02_AG sequences were recovered from a married heterosexual couple who never traveled abroad, thus providing the first molecular evidence of autochthonous horizontal transmission of this lineage of major global importance. Also, three phylogenetic clusters of strains recovered from a total of 18.3% of the cohort were uncovered. Their close genetic relatedness suggests they were recovered from patients who probably took part in the same chain of viral spread. In conjunction with our previous surveys from inner Rio de Janeiro, these results suggest that although small cities harbor unique molecular features of HIV-1 infection, they also clearly reflect and may rapidly absorb the diversity recorded in large urban centers.
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Summary : Forensic science - both as a source of and as a remedy for error potentially leading to judicial error - has been studied empirically in this research. A comprehensive literature review, experimental tests on the influence of observational biases in fingermark comparison, and semistructured interviews with heads of forensic science laboratories/units in Switzerland and abroad were the tools used. For the literature review, some of the areas studied are: the quality of forensic science work in general, the complex interaction between science and law, and specific propositions as to error sources not directly related to the interaction between law and science. A list of potential error sources all the way from the crime scene to the writing of the report has been established as well. For the empirical tests, the ACE-V (Analysis, Comparison, Evaluation, and Verification) process of fingermark comparison was selected as an area of special interest for the study of observational biases, due to its heavy reliance on visual observation and recent cases of misidentifications. Results of the tests performed with forensic science students tend to show that decision-making stages are the most vulnerable to stimuli inducing observational biases. For the semi-structured interviews, eleven senior forensic scientists answered questions on several subjects, for example on potential and existing error sources in their work, of the limitations of what can be done with forensic science, and of the possibilities and tools to minimise errors. Training and education to augment the quality of forensic science have been discussed together with possible solutions to minimise the risk of errors in forensic science. In addition, the time that samples of physical evidence are kept has been determined as well. Results tend to show considerable agreement on most subjects among the international participants. Their opinions on possible explanations for the occurrence of such problems and the relative weight of such errors in the three stages of crime scene, laboratory, and report writing, disagree, however, with opinions widely represented in existing literature. Through the present research it was therefore possible to obtain a better view of the interaction of forensic science and judicial error to propose practical recommendations to minimise their occurrence. Résumé : Les sciences forensiques - considérés aussi bien comme source de que comme remède à l'erreur judiciaire - ont été étudiées empiriquement dans cette recherche. Une revue complète de littérature, des tests expérimentaux sur l'influence du biais de l'observation dans l'individualisation de traces digitales et des entretiens semi-directifs avec des responsables de laboratoires et unités de sciences forensiques en Suisse et à l'étranger étaient les outils utilisés. Pour la revue de littérature, quelques éléments étudies comprennent: la qualité du travail en sciences forensiques en général, l'interaction complexe entre la science et le droit, et des propositions spécifiques quant aux sources d'erreur pas directement liées à l'interaction entre droit et science. Une liste des sources potentielles d'erreur tout le long du processus de la scène de crime à la rédaction du rapport a également été établie. Pour les tests empiriques, le processus d'ACE-V (analyse, comparaison, évaluation et vérification) de l'individualisation de traces digitales a été choisi comme un sujet d'intérêt spécial pour l'étude des effets d'observation, due à son fort recours à l'observation visuelle et dû à des cas récents d'identification erronée. Les résultats des tests avec des étudiants tendent à prouver que les étapes de prise de décision sont les plus vulnérables aux stimuli induisant des biais d'observation. Pour les entretiens semi-structurés, onze forensiciens ont répondu à des questions sur des sujets variés, par exemple sur des sources potentielles et existantes d'erreur dans leur travail, des limitations de ce qui peut être fait en sciences forensiques, et des possibilités et des outils pour réduire au minimum ses erreurs. La formation et l'éducation pour augmenter la qualité des sciences forensiques ont été discutées ainsi que les solutions possibles pour réduire au minimum le risque d'erreurs en sciences forensiques. Le temps que des échantillons sont gardés a été également déterminé. En général, les résultats tendent à montrer un grand accord sur la plupart des sujets abordés pour les divers participants internationaux. Leur avis sur des explications possibles pour l'occurrence de tels problèmes et sur le poids relatif de telles erreurs dans les trois étapes scène de crime;', laboratoire et rédaction de rapports est cependant en désaccord avec les avis largement représentés dans la littérature existante. Par cette recherche il était donc possible d'obtenir une meilleure vue de l'interaction des sciences forensiques et de l'erreur judiciaire afin de proposer des recommandations pratiques pour réduire au minimum leur occurrence. Zusammenfassung : Forensische Wissenschaften - als Ursache und als Hilfsmittel gegen Fehler, die möglicherweise zu Justizirrtümern führen könnten - sind hier empirisch erforscht worden. Die eingestzten Methoden waren eine Literaturübersicht, experimentelle Tests über den Einfluss von Beobachtungseffekten (observer bias) in der Individualisierung von Fingerabdrücken und halbstandardisierte Interviews mit Verantwortlichen von kriminalistischen Labors/Diensten in der Schweiz und im Ausland. Der Literaturüberblick umfasst unter anderem: die Qualität der kriminalistischen Arbeit im Allgemeinen, die komplizierte Interaktion zwischen Wissenschaft und Recht und spezifische Fehlerquellen, welche nicht direkt auf der Interaktion von Recht und Wissenschaft beruhen. Eine Liste möglicher Fehlerquellen vom Tatort zum Rapportschreiben ist zudem erstellt worden. Für die empirischen Tests wurde der ACE-V (Analyse, Vergleich, Auswertung und Überprüfung) Prozess in der Fingerabdruck-Individualisierung als speziell interessantes Fachgebiet für die Studie von Beobachtungseffekten gewählt. Gründe sind die Wichtigkeit von visuellen Beobachtungen und kürzliche Fälle von Fehlidentifizierungen. Resultate der Tests, die mit Studenten durchgeführt wurden, neigen dazu Entscheidungsphasen als die anfälligsten für Stimuli aufzuzeigen, die Beobachtungseffekte anregen könnten. Für die halbstandardisierten Interviews beantworteten elf Forensiker Fragen über Themen wie zum Beispiel mögliche und vorhandene Fehlerquellen in ihrer Arbeit, Grenzen der forensischen Wissenschaften und Möglichkeiten und Mittel um Fehler zu verringern. Wie Training und Ausbildung die Qualität der forensischen Wissenschaften verbessern können ist zusammen mit möglichen Lösungen zur Fehlervermeidung im selben Bereich diskutiert worden. Wie lange Beweismitten aufbewahrt werden wurde auch festgehalten. Resultate neigen dazu, für die meisten Themen eine grosse Übereinstimmung zwischen den verschiedenen internationalen Teilnehmern zu zeigen. Ihre Meinungen über mögliche Erklärungen für das Auftreten solcher Probleme und des relativen Gewichts solcher Fehler in den drei Phasen Tatort, Labor und Rapportschreiben gehen jedoch mit den Meinungen, welche in der Literatur vertreten werden auseinander. Durch diese Forschungsarbeit war es folglich möglich, ein besseres Verständnis der Interaktion von forensischen Wissenschaften und Justizirrtümer zu erhalten, um somit praktische Empfehlungen vorzuschlagen, welche diese verringern. Resumen : Esta investigación ha analizado de manera empírica el rol de las ciencias forenses como fuente y como remedio de potenciales errores judiciales. La metodología empleada consistió en una revisión integral de la literatura, en una serie de experimentos sobre la influencia de los sesgos de observación en la individualización de huellas dactilares y en una serie de entrevistas semiestructuradas con jefes de laboratorios o unidades de ciencias forenses en Suiza y en el extranjero. En la revisión de la literatura, algunas de las áreas estudiadas fueron: la calidad del trabajo en ciencias forenses en general, la interacción compleja entre la ciencia y el derecho, así como otras fuentes de error no relacionadas directamente con la interacción entre derecho y ciencia. También se ha establecido una lista exhaustiva de las fuentes potenciales de error desde la llegada a la escena del crimen a la redacción del informe. En el marco de los tests empíricos, al analizar los sesgos de observación dedicamos especial interés al proceso de ACE-V (análisis, comparación, evaluación y verificación) para la individualización de huellas dactilares puesto que este reposa sobre la observación visual y ha originado varios casos recientes de identificaciones erróneas. Los resultados de las experimentaciones realizadas con estudiantes sugieren que las etapas en las que deben tornarse decisiones son las más vulnerables a lös factores que pueden generar sesgos de observación. En el contexto de las entrevistas semi-estructuradas, once científicos forenses de diversos países contestaron preguntas sobre varios temas, incluyendo las fuentes potenciales y existehtes de error en su trabajo, las limitaciones propias a las ciencias forenses, las posibilidades de reducir al mínimo los errores y las herramientas que podrían ser utilizadas para ello. Se han sugerido diversas soluciones para alcanzar este objetivo, incluyendo el entrenamiento y la educación para aumentar la calidad de las ciencias forenses. Además, se ha establecido el periodo de conservación de las muestras judiciales. Los resultados apuntan a un elevado grado de consenso entre los entrevistados en la mayoría de los temas. Sin embargo, sus opiniones sobre las posibles causas de estos errores y su importancia relativa en las tres etapas de la investigación -la escena del crimen, el laboratorio y la redacción de informe- discrepan con las que predominan ampliamente en la literatura actual. De este modo, esta investigación nos ha permitido obtener una mejor imagen de la interacción entre ciencias forenses y errores judiciales, y comenzar a formular una serie de recomendaciones prácticas para reducirlos al minimo.
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The development of orally active small molecule inhibitors of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) has led to new treatment options for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Patients with activating mutations of the EGFR gene show sensitivity to, and clinical benefit from, treatment with EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKls). First generation reversible ATP-competitive EGFR-TKls, gefitinib and erlotinib, are effective as first, second-line or maintenance therapy. Despite initial benefit, most patients develop resistance within a year, 50-60% of cases being related to the appearance of a T790M gatekeeper mutation. Newer, irreversible EGFR-TKls - afatinib and dacomitinib - covalently bind to and inhibit multiple receptors in the ErbB family (EGFR, HER2 and HER4). These agents have been mainly evaluated for first-line treatment but also in the setting of acquired resistance to first-generation EGFR-TKls. Afatinib is the first ErbB family blocker approved for patients with NSCLC with activating EGFR mutations; dacomitinib is in late stage clinical development. Mutant-selective EGFR inhibitors (AZD9291, CO-1686, HM61713) that specifically target the T790M resistance mutation are in early development. The EGFR-TKIs differ in their spectrum of target kinases, reversibility of binding to EGFR receptor, pharmacokinetics and potential for drug-drug interactions, as discussed in this review. For the clinician, these differences are relevant in the setting of polymedicated patients with NSCLC, as well as from the perspective of innovative anticancer drug combination strategies.
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Concerns have been raised that universal availability of antiretroviral agents in resource-limited settings might lead to the emergence and spread of resistant strains. We present the largest survey on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) resistance among treatment-naïve and experienced patients followed in small, relatively underprivileged cities in Brazil with universal availability to standard of care antiretroviral combinations. Samples were collected between 2004 and 2006 from 95 patients followed in the cities of Saquarema and Santo Antonio de Pádua, state of Rio de Janeiro. A proviral fragment encompassing protease and reverse transcriptase (RT) regions was generated and drug susceptibility level was inferred. Among 50 strains from drug-naïve subjects, one (2%) had intermediate-level resistance to RT inhibitors. Among 38 patients on therapy as of sampling, 28 (73.7%) had plasma viral load (PVL) below detection limit (26 of whom without evidence of resistance mutations) and 11 (28.9%) harbored strains with reduced susceptibility. Only two strains harbored both protease and RT inhibitor mutations. Among seven patients who were off-treatment as of sampling, two (28.5%) harbored strains with reduced susceptibility to RT inhibitors. The relatively high frequency of undetectable PVL among patients on treatment and the overall low prevalence of resistance-associated mutations are reassuring. Continued surveillance, however, is necessary.
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OBJECTIVES: This study sought to establish an accurate and reproducible T(2)-mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) methodology at 3 T and to evaluate it in healthy volunteers and patients with myocardial infarct. BACKGROUND: Myocardial edema affects the T(2) relaxation time on CMR. Therefore, T(2)-mapping has been established to characterize edema at 1.5 T. A 3 T implementation designed for longitudinal studies and aimed at guiding and monitoring therapy remains to be implemented, thoroughly characterized, and evaluated in vivo. METHODS: A free-breathing navigator-gated radial CMR pulse sequence with an adiabatic T(2) preparation module and an empirical fitting equation for T(2) quantification was optimized using numerical simulations and was validated at 3 T in a phantom study. Its reproducibility for myocardial T(2) quantification was then ascertained in healthy volunteers and improved using an external reference phantom with known T(2). In a small cohort of patients with established myocardial infarction, the local T(2) value and extent of the edematous region were determined and compared with conventional T(2)-weighted CMR and x-ray coronary angiography, where available. RESULTS: The numerical simulations and phantom study demonstrated that the empirical fitting equation is significantly more accurate for T(2) quantification than that for the more conventional exponential decay. The volunteer study consistently demonstrated a reproducibility error as low as 2 ± 1% using the external reference phantom and an average myocardial T(2) of 38.5 ± 4.5 ms. Intraobserver and interobserver variability in the volunteers were -0.04 ± 0.89 ms (p = 0.86) and -0.23 ± 0.91 ms (p = 0.87), respectively. In the infarction patients, the T(2) in edema was 62.4 ± 9.2 ms and was consistent with the x-ray angiographic findings. Simultaneously, the extent of the edematous region by T(2)-mapping correlated well with that from the T(2)-weighted images (r = 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The new, well-characterized 3 T methodology enables robust and accurate cardiac T(2)-mapping at 3 T with high spatial resolution, while the addition of a reference phantom improves reproducibility. This technique may be well suited for longitudinal studies in patients with suspected or established heart disease.
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Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.