984 resultados para Service Interruption Modelling


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Ce travail s'intéresse à la problématique du suicide à partir de l'émergence en Suisse, vers la fin des années '90, de la prévention du suicide comme préoccupation sociale et politique. Au début, ce sont les milieux associatifs qui ont soulevé à cette question en percevant le suicide comme le reflet d'une souffrance d'origine sociale. Par la suite, la prévention du suicide est progressivement devenue une problématique de santé publique appréhendée essentiellement sous le registre médical comme étant le symptôme d'une pathologie psychiatrique. Après une première partie consacrée aux processus sociopolitiques et aux transformations morales touchant le suicide et sa prévention, ce travail approfondit, au travers d'un terrain ethnographique, la prise en charge des personnes présentant des problématiques suicidaires au sein d'un service d'urgences psychiatriques.Malgré une approche se voulant biopsychosociale, l'analyse des discours et des pratiques soignantes montre que la dimension sociale est largement négligée, conduisant à une médicalisation de situations de détresse qui sont principalement de nature sociale. En effet, parmi la population qui fréquente le service, on observe une surreprésentation de personnes issues des classes sociales défavorisées présentant souvent des trajectoires biographiques particulièrement difficiles. Au fil des entretiens avec les patients émerge une analyse voyant la souffrance psychique et la prise en charge psychiatrique comme étant aujourd'hui une manière d'obtenir une reconnaissance sociale et symbolique. Les problématiques suicidaires peuvent ainsi être interprétées comme une forme d'expression, un langage au travers duquel s'exprime la position sociale défavorisée.En adoptant une posture militante construite à partir de la réalité ethnographique, les problématiques suicidaires sont analysées comme l'expression d'une condition d'oppression liée à un cadre social et économique de plus en plus contraignant, à des rapports de pouvoir inégaux ainsi qu'à une lecture individualisante, médicalisante et pathologisante des problèmes sociaux.The present thesis discusses suicide prevention in Switzerland, which emerged as a social and political issue at the end of the '90s. At first, this question was taken up by associations considering suicide as a reflection of social suffering. Thereafter, suicide prevention gradually became a public health matter conceived with a medical approach as a symptom of a psychiatric disease. The first part of this work analyzes the sociopolitical process and moral transformations concerning suicide and its prevention. The second part is based on an ethnographic fieldwork conducted in a psychiatric emergency unit that attends people who have tried to attempt their life or consider doing it. Through the analysis of discourses and practices of the medical staff, this research shows that the social aspect of suicide is widely neglected, leading to a medicalization of social problems. In fact, amongst patients attending the emergency unit, there is an over-­-representation of people from disadvantaged classes having very difficult life stories. Interviews with patients also revealed that psychic suffering and psychiatric treatment is nowadays a way to get social and symbolical recognition. Suicidal problems can be understood as a language expressing a disadvantaged social position. By adopting a militant position constructed from the ethnographic reality, suicide is analyzed as the expression of an oppressed condition related to a more and more restricted social and economic situation, to unequal power relations as well as to an individualistic, medical and pathological interpretation of social problems.

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Following major reforms of the British National Health Service (NHS) in 1990, the roles of purchasing and providing health services were separated, with the relationship between purchasers and providers governed by contracts. Using a mixed multinomial logit analysis, we show how this policy shift led to a selection of contracts that is consistent with the predictions of a simple model, based on contract theory, in which the characteristics of the health services being purchased and of the contracting parties influence the choice of contract form. The paper thus provides evidence in support of the practical relevance of theory in understanding health care market reform.

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The extent to which remuneration systems affect the behaviour of health care professionals is of considerable importance in the administration of publicly funded heath care systems. Using data across two jurisdictions in the United Kingdom, in only one of which remuneration was changed, we compare the extent of measured dental activity at the dentist level in order to ascertain the impact of moving to activity-based remuneration. We find that there are large and statistically significant increases in activity as dentists moved to the activity-based system and that a dentist’s previous form of contract is an important determinant of the magnitude of the effect. We also explore the extent to which dentists’ professional attitudes can explain differences in their activity and find that some aspects of self-reported attitudes are associated with observable differences in activity.

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Cet article a pour objectif de décrire l'expérience d'un groupe d'accueil pour les frères et soeurs d'enfants hospitalisés en néonatoloyie. Cet événement représente un facteur de stress et suscite d'importantes angoisses chez les parents. Sensibles et perméables au vécu parental, les frères et soeurs peuvent éprouver une difficulté à se représenter ce qui se déroule autour d'eux. Leur offrir un lieu de parole avec leurs parents se révèle important et permet de préparer la rencontre avec le nouveau-né hospitalisé. Il s'agit d'un espace permettant de nouvelles représentations du bébé, pour la fratrie et pour les parents.

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Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Uppsala Universitet, Sweden, from April to July the 2007. Two series of analogue models are used to explore ductile-frictional contrasts of the basal décollement in the development of oblique and transverse structures simultaneously to thin-skinned shortening. These models simulate the evolution of the Central External Sierras (Southern Pyrenees, Spain), which constitute the frontal emerging part of the southernmost Pyrenean thrust sheet. They are characterized by the presence of transverse N-S to NW-SE anticlines, which are perpendicular to the Pyrenean structural trend and developed in the hangingwall of the Santo Domingo thrust system, detaching on an unevenly distributed Triassic materials (evaporitic-dolomitic interfingerings). Model setup performs a décollement made by three patches of silicone neighbouring pure brittle sand. Model series A test the thickness ratio between overburden and décollement. Model series B test the width of frictional detachment areas. Model results show how deformation reaches further in areas detached on ductile layer whereas frictional décollement areas assimilate the strain by means of an additional uplift. This replicates the structural style of Central External Sierras: higher structural relief of N-S anticlines with regard to orogen-parallel structures, absence of a representative ductile décollement in the core, tilting towards the orogen and foreland-side closure not thrusted by the frontal emerging South-Pyrenean thrust.

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1. Statistical modelling is often used to relate sparse biological survey data to remotely derived environmental predictors, thereby providing a basis for predictively mapping biodiversity across an entire region of interest. The most popular strategy for such modelling has been to model distributions of individual species one at a time. Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level may, however, confer significant benefits for applications involving very large numbers of species, particularly if many of these species are recorded infrequently. 2. Community-level modelling combines data from multiple species and produces information on spatial pattern in the distribution of biodiversity at a collective community level instead of, or in addition to, the level of individual species. Spatial outputs from community-level modelling include predictive mapping of community types (groups of locations with similar species composition), species groups (groups of species with similar distributions), axes or gradients of compositional variation, levels of compositional dissimilarity between pairs of locations, and various macro-ecological properties (e.g. species richness). 3. Three broad modelling strategies can be used to generate these outputs: (i) 'assemble first, predict later', in which biological survey data are first classified, ordinated or aggregated to produce community-level entities or attributes that are then modelled in relation to environmental predictors; (ii) 'predict first, assemble later', in which individual species are modelled one at a time as a function of environmental variables, to produce a stack of species distribution maps that is then subjected to classification, ordination or aggregation; and (iii) 'assemble and predict together', in which all species are modelled simultaneously, within a single integrated modelling process. These strategies each have particular strengths and weaknesses, depending on the intended purpose of modelling and the type, quality and quantity of data involved. 4. Synthesis and applications. The potential benefits of modelling large multispecies data sets using community-level, as opposed to species-level, approaches include faster processing, increased power to detect shared patterns of environmental response across rarely recorded species, and enhanced capacity to synthesize complex data into a form more readily interpretable by scientists and decision-makers. Community-level modelling therefore deserves to be considered more often, and more widely, as a potential alternative or supplement to modelling individual species.

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The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

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In multilevel modelling, interest in modeling the nested structure of hierarchical data has been accompanied by increasing attention to different forms of spatial interactions across different levels of the hierarchy. Neglecting such interactions is likely to create problems of inference, which typically assumes independence. In this paper we review approaches to multilevel modelling with spatial effects, and attempt to connect the two literatures, discussing the advantages and limitations of various approaches.

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Macroeconomists working with multivariate models typically face uncertainty over which (if any) of their variables have long run steady states which are subject to breaks. Furthermore, the nature of the break process is often unknown. In this paper, we draw on methods from the Bayesian clustering literature to develop an econometric methodology which: i) finds groups of variables which have the same number of breaks; and ii) determines the nature of the break process within each group. We present an application involving a five-variate steady-state VAR.

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In March 2004, the Scottish government announced a review of eye care services in Scotland, which culminated in the introduction of free eye examinations from 1st April 2006. This free eye examination is not just a sight test; it is a thorough examination to check the health of the patient’s eyes and to look for signs of other health problems. The Scottish government commissioned private ophthalmic optician practices to perform these eye examinations. Consequently, since April 2006 individuals in Scotland could walk into any high street optometry practice and get a ‘free’ eye examination funded under the NHS.

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This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions convey signals that communicate information about the exchange rate objectives of central bank. The model is used to analyse the impact of Japanese FX interventions during the period 1999 -2011 on the yen/US dollar dynamics.

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One aspect of the case for policy support for renewable energy developments is the wider economic benefits that are expected to be generated. Within Scotland, as with other regions of the UK, there is a focus on encouraging domestically‐based renewable technologies. In this paper, we use a regional computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact on the Scottish economy of expenditures relating to marine energy installations. The results illustrate the potential for (considerable) ‘legacy’ effects after expenditures cease. In identifying the specific sectoral expenditures with the largest impact on (lifetime) regional employment, this approach offers important policy guidance.

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One aspect of the case for policy support for renewable energy developments is the wider economic benefits that are expected to be generated. Within Scotland, as with other regions of the UK, there is a focus on encouraging domestically‐based renewable technologies. In this paper, we use a regional computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact on the Scottish economy of expenditures relating to marine energy installations. The results illustrate the potential for (considerable) ‘legacy’ effects after expenditures cease. In identifying the specific sectoral expenditures with the largest impact on (lifetime) regional employment, this approach offers important policy guidance.

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The regional economic impact of biofuel production depends upon a number of interrelated factors: the specific biofuels feedstock and production technology employed; the sector’s embeddedness to the rest of the economy, through its demand for local resources; the extent to which new activity is created. These issues can be analysed using multisectoral economic models. Some studies have used (fixed price) Input-Output (IO) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modelling frameworks, whilst a nascent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) literature has also begun to examine the regional (and national) impact of biofuel development. This paper reviews, compares and evaluates these approaches for modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels.