Risk and protective factors in the mental health of adolescents living with HIV in Namibia

"Introducción": A pesar de que el 90% de los adolescentes con VIH en el mundo viven en África subsahariana, pocos estudios han examinado el impacto que tiene el hecho de estar infectados por VIH sobre su salud mental en este región. Además, los adolescentes con VIH en contextos de escasos recursos se enfrentan con factores de riesgo adicionales, como la pobreza, la falta de apoyo social y el estigma relacionado con el VIH. Este estudio examina la salud mental de los adolescentes que viven con el VIH en Namibia, un país con una de las prevalencias de VIH más altas del mundo. El estudio examina si estos adolescentes muestran mayores problemas de salud mental respecto a un grupo de comparación de la comunidad. Asimismo, el estudio evalúa los factores que predicen problemas de salud mental con el fin de identificar las potenciales áreas de intervención que permitan mejorar dichos problemas. Métodos: En una fase piloto, se organizan grupos de discusión con 34 adolescentes y entrevistas con ocho informantes clave para explorar las percepciones locales sobre los problemas de salud mental, así como sus factores de riesgo y factores de proteccion. Dado que las propiedades psicométricas del instrumento seleccionado para medir salud mental, el cuestionario Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire/ Cuestionario de Capacidades y Dificultades (SDQ), nunca habían sido exploradas antes en Namibia, se decidió administrarlo a 236 participantes con edades comprendidas entre 12 y 18 años en una fase piloto cuantitativa...

Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Government Bond Returns

Peer reviewed

Association between miscarriage and cardiovascular disease in a Scottish cohort

Funding This work was supported by a grant from the ‘Merel Foundation’, the Netherlands. The AMND receives support from the University of Aberdeen.

Interpretational variability of structural traps : implications for exploration risk and volume uncertainty

We would like to acknowledge and thank Frank Peel and Seb Turner for taking time to review this paper. Also thanks to Marguerite Fleming for perpetual encouragement. From: Richards, F. L., Richardson, N. J., Rippington, S. J., Wilson, R. W. & Bond, C. E. (eds) 2015. Industrial Structural Geology: Principles, Techniques and Integration. Geological Society, London,

Association between osteoarthritis and cardiovascular disease : Systematic review and meta-analysis

© The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Government Bond Returns

Peer reviewed

Association between miscarriage and cardiovascular disease in a Scottish cohort

Funding This work was supported by a grant from the ‘Merel Foundation’, the Netherlands. The AMND receives support from the University of Aberdeen.

Interpretational variability of structural traps : implications for exploration risk and volume uncertainty

We would like to acknowledge and thank Frank Peel and Seb Turner for taking time to review this paper. Also thanks to Marguerite Fleming for perpetual encouragement. From: Richards, F. L., Richardson, N. J., Rippington, S. J., Wilson, R. W. & Bond, C. E. (eds) 2015. Industrial Structural Geology: Principles, Techniques and Integration. Geological Society, London,

Association between osteoarthritis and cardiovascular disease : Systematic review and meta-analysis

© The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

Bullying Involvement and Adolescent Substance Use: A Study of Multilevel Risk and Protective Factors

Bullying, frequent drunkenness, and frequent cannabis use are significant health-risk behaviours among youth. While many studies have demonstrated that bullying involvement may initiate a developmental pathway to both types of frequent substance use, there is a limited understanding of the connection between these behaviours. The presence of risk and protective factors within youths’ relationships and within their neighbourhoods may alter the associations between bullying involvement and both types of frequent substance use. A systemic approach is needed to assess the complex, social environments in which youth are embedded. The current thesis consists of two studies that examined the associations between bullying and both types of frequent substance use within the context of youths’ social environments. In Study 1, multilevel modeling was used to examine the associations between bullying and frequent substance use within the context of individual and neighbourhood risk factors. Our results indicated that the risk factors associated with both frequent drunkenness and frequent cannabis use exist at both levels, with neighbourhoods altering the association of individual risk factors. Moreover, bullying was a unique risk factor associated with both types of frequent substance use, whereas indirect associations were observed for victimization. Study 2 used a similar methodology to examine the association between bullying and both types of frequent substance use within the context of individual and neighbourhood protective factors. Once again, our results indicated that the protective factors associated with both types of frequent substance use exist at multiple levels, and that neighbourhoods altered the association of individual protective factors. Additionally, positive relationship characteristics interacted with the link between bullying and both types of frequent substance use. Together, these findings clarify the nature of the bullying-substance use link and emphasize the need to study adolescent development in context.

Risk and benefits in lifestyle sports: parkour, law and social value

This paper examines the interrelationship between law and lifestyle sports, viewed through the lens of parkour. We argue that the literature relating to legal approaches to lifestyle sport is currently underdeveloped and so seek to partially fill this lacuna. Hitherto, we argue, the law has been viewed as a largely negative presence, seen particularly in terms of the ways in which counter-cultural activities are policed and regulated, and where such activities are viewed as transgressive or undesirable. We argue that this is a somewhat unsophisticated take on how the law can operate, with law constructed as an outcome of constraints to behaviour (where the law authorises or prohibits), distinct from the legal contexts, environments and spaces in which these relationships occur. We argue that the distinctive settings in which lifestyle sports are practiced needs a more fine-grained analysis as they are settings which bear, and bring to life, laws and regulations that shape how space is to be experienced. We examine specifically the interrelationship between risk and benefit and how the law recognises issues of social utility or value, particularly within the context of lifestyle sport. We seek to move from user-centred constructions of law as an imposition, to a more nuanced position that looks at parkour at the intersections of law, space and lifestyle sport, in order to reveal how law can be used to support and extend claims to space.

Archives and Copyright: Risk and Reform

This paper considers the place of the archive sector within the copyright regime, and how copyright impacts upon the preservation, access to, and use of archival holdings. It begins with a critical assessment of the current parameters of the UK copyright regime as it applies to the work of archivists, including recommendations for reform that have followed in the wake of the Gowers Review of Intellectual Property (2006-2010), the Hargreaves Review of Intellectual Property and Growth (2010-2011), the Consultation on Copyright (2011-12), as well as the government’s response thereto: Modernising Copyright (2012). It considers the various problems the copyright regime presents for archives undertaking mass digitisation projects as well as recent European and UK initiatives in this domain. It argues that the UK copyright regime, even when read in conjunction with current national and regional recommendations for reform, falls short of delivering a legal framework that would enable archivists to realise the full potential that comprehensive, universal online access to the country’s archival holdings would contribute to local and national democracy and accountability, to education, learning, and culture, and to the sense of identity and place for local people, communities and organisations. Ultimately, a case is made for the differential treatment of archives within the copyright regime – different, that is, from libraries and other related institutions operating within the cultural sector. The paper concludes with a policy recommendation that would greatly enhance the ability of archives to provide online access to their holdings, while at the same time safeguarding the economic interests of the authors and owners of copyright-protected work.

Complexity of risk: Mixed methods approach to understanding youth risk and insecurity in post-conflict settings

In settings of intergroup conflict, identifying contextually-relevant risk factors for youth development in an important task. In Vukovar, Croatia, a city devastated during the war in former Yugoslavia, ethno-political tensions remain. The current study utilized a mixed method approach to identify two salient community-level risk factors (ethnic tension and general antisocial behavior) and related emotional insecurity responses (ethnic and non-ethnic insecurity) among youth in Vukovar. In Study 1, focus group discussions (N=66) with mother, fathers, and adolescents 11 to 15-years-old were analyzed using the Constant Comparative Method, revealing two types of risk and insecurity responses. In Study 2, youth (N=227, 58% male, M=15.88 SD=1.12 years old) responded to quantitative scales developed from the focus groups; discriminate validity was demonstrated and path analyses established predictive validity between each type of risk and insecurity. First, community ethnic tension (i.e., threats related to war/ethnic identity) significantly predicted ethnic insecurity for all youth (β=.41, p<.001). Second, experience with community antisocial behavior (i.e., general crime found in any context) predicted non-ethnic community insecurity for girls (β=.32, p<.05), but not for boys. These findings are the first to show multiple forms of emotional insecurity at the community level; implications for future research are discussed.

Evidence for three genetic loci involved in both anorexia nervosa risk and variation of body mass index

The maintenance of normal body weight is disrupted in patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) for prolonged periods of time. Prior to the onset of AN, premorbid body mass index (BMI) spans the entire range from underweight to obese. After recovery, patients have reduced rates of overweight and obesity. As such, loci involved in body weight regulation may also be relevant for AN and vice versa. Our primary analysis comprised a cross-trait analysis of the 1000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with the lowest P-values in a genome-wide association meta-analysis (GWAMA) of AN (GCAN) for evidence of association in the largest published GWAMA for BMI (GIANT). Subsequently we performed sex-stratified analyses for these 1000 SNPs. Functional ex vivo studies on four genes ensued. Lastly, a look-up of GWAMA-derived BMI-related loci was performed in the AN GWAMA. We detected significant associations (P-values <5 × 10(-5), Bonferroni-corrected P<0.05) for nine SNP alleles at three independent loci. Interestingly, all AN susceptibility alleles were consistently associated with increased BMI. None of the genes (chr. 10: CTBP2, chr. 19: CCNE1, chr. 2: CARF and NBEAL1; the latter is a region with high linkage disequilibrium) nearest to these SNPs has previously been associated with AN or obesity. Sex-stratified analyses revealed that the strongest BMI signal originated predominantly from females (chr. 10 rs1561589; Poverall: 2.47 × 10(-06)/Pfemales: 3.45 × 10(-07)/Pmales: 0.043). Functional ex vivo studies in mice revealed reduced hypothalamic expression of Ctbp2 and Nbeal1 after fasting. Hypothalamic expression of Ctbp2 was increased in diet-induced obese (DIO) mice as compared with age-matched lean controls. We observed no evidence for associations for the look-up of BMI-related loci in the AN GWAMA. A cross-trait analysis of AN and BMI loci revealed variants at three chromosomal loci with potential joint impact. The chromosome 10 locus is particularly promising given that the association with obesity was primarily driven by females. In addition, the detected altered hypothalamic expression patterns of Ctbp2 and Nbeal1 as a result of fasting and DIO implicate these genes in weight regulation.