Balanced skills among nascent entrepreneurs

This paper examines the effects and origins of balanced skills among nascent entrepreneurs. In a first step we apply Lazear’s jack-of-all-trades theory to investigate performance effects of a balanced skill set. Second, we investigate potential sources of balanced skills, thereby testing the investment hypothesis against the endowment hypothesis. Analyzing data on high-potential nascent projects, we find support for the notion that balanced skills are important for making progress in the venture creation process. Regarding the origins of balanced skills, the data support both hypotheses. In line with the investment hypothesis an early interest in an entrepreneurial career, prior managerial and entrepreneurial experience are significantly related with a more balanced skill set. Supporting the endowment hypothesis, an entrepreneurial personality profile indicating entrepreneurial talent is correlated with a balanced skill set. Our results thus hint at the need for theories on the origins of a balanced skill set that integrate both views.

Hope, happiness and hoaxes

This paper gives a psychological hypothesis for the phenomenon of Internet seduction or scams from the victim's perspective. It addresses the question of why so many people get hooked on Internet relationships and lose large amounts of money on scams and hoaxes resulting in emotional and physical trauma.

Do anti-inflammatory agents promote linear ablation lesion discontinuities? : an electrophysiological examination

Background: Catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) is more efficacious than antiarrhythmic therapy. Post ablation recurrences reduce ablation effectiveness and are contributed by lesion discontinuity in the fibrotic linear ablation lesions. The anti-fibrotic role of statins in reducing AF is being assessed in current trials. By reducing the chronic pathological fibrosis that occurs in AF they may reduce AF. However if statins also have an effect on the acute therapeutic fibrosis of an ablation, this could exacerbate lesion discontinuity and AF recurrence. We tested the hypothesis that statins attenuate ablation lesion continuity in a recognised pig atrial linear ablation model. Aims: To assess whether Atorvastatin diminishes the bi-directional conduction block produced by a linear atrial ablation lesion. Methods: Sixteen pigs were randomised to statin (n=8) or placebo (n=8) with drug pre-treatment for 3 days and a further 4 weeks. At initial electrophysiological study (EPS1) 3D right atrium (RA) mapping and a vertical ablation linear lesion in the posterior RA with bidirectional conduction block were completed (Gepstein Circ 1999). Follow-up electrophysiological assessment (EPS2) at 28 days assessed bidirectional conduction block maintenance. Results: Data of 15/16 (statin=7) pigs were analysed. Mean lesion length was 3.7 ± 0.8cm with a mean of 17.9 ± 5.7 lesion applications. Bi-directional conduction block was confirmed in 15/15 pigs (100%) at EPS1 and EPS2. Conclusions: Atorvastatin did not affect ablation lesion continuity in this pig atrial linear ablation model. If patients are on long-term statins for AF reduction, periablation cessation is probably not necessary.

Time-dependent rates of molecular evolution

For over half a century, it has been known that the rate of morphological evolution appears to vary with the time frame of measurement. Rates of microevolutionary change, measured between successive generations, were found to be far higher than rates of macroevolutionary change inferred from the fossil record. More recently, it has been suggested that rates of molecular evolution are also time dependent, with the estimated rate depending on the timescale of measurement. This followed surprising observations that estimates of mutation rates, obtained in studies of pedigrees and laboratory mutation-accumulation lines, exceeded long-term substitution rates by an order of magnitude or more. Although a range of studies have provided evidence for such a pattern, the hypothesis remains relatively contentious. Furthermore, there is ongoing discussion about the factors that can cause molecular rate estimates to be dependent on time. Here we present an overview of our current understanding of time-dependent rates. We provide a summary of the evidence for time-dependent rates in animals, bacteria and viruses. We review the various biological and methodological factors that can cause rates to be time dependent, including the effects of natural selection, calibration errors, model misspecification and other artefacts. We also describe the challenges in calibrating estimates of molecular rates, particularly on the intermediate timescales that are critical for an accurate characterization of time-dependent rates. This has important consequences for the use of molecular-clock methods to estimate timescales of recent evolutionary events.

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

Combined mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences resolve the interrelations of the major Australasian marsupial radiations

Australasian marsupials include three major radiations, the insectivorous/carnivorous Dasyuromorphia, the omnivorous bandicoots (Peramelemorphia), and the largely herbivorous diprotodontians. Morphologists have generally considered the bandicoots and diprotodontians to be closely related, most prominently because they are both syndactylous (with the 2nd and 3rd pedal digits being fused). Molecular studies have been unable to confirm or reject this Syndactyla hypothesis. Here we present new mitochondrial (mt) genomes from a spiny bandicoot (Echymipera rufescens) and two dasyurids, a fat-tailed dunnart (Sminthopsis crassicaudata) and a northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). By comparing trees derived from pairwise base-frequency differences between taxa with standard (absolute, uncorrected) distance trees, we infer that composition bias among mt protein-coding and RNA sequences is sufficient to mislead tree reconstruction. This can explain incongruence between trees obtained from mt and nuclear data sets. However, after excluding major sources of compositional heterogeneity, both the “reduced-bias” mt and nuclear data sets clearly favor a bandicoot plus dasyuromorphian association, as well as a grouping of kangaroos and possums (Phalangeriformes) among diprotodontians. Notably, alternatives to these groupings could only be confidently rejected by combining the mt and nuclear data. Elsewhere on the tree, Dromiciops appears to be sister to the monophyletic Australasian marsupials, whereas the placement of the marsupial mole (Notoryctes) remains problematic. More generally, we contend that it is desirable to combine mt genome and nuclear sequences for inferring vertebrate phylogeny, but as separately modeled process partitions. This strategy depends on detecting and excluding (or accounting for) major sources of nonhistorical signal, such as from compositional nonstationarity.

Toward resolving deep neoaves phylogeny : data, signal enhancement, and priors

We report three developments toward resolving the challenge of the apparent basal polytomy of neoavian birds. First, we describe improved conditional down-weighting techniques to reduce noise relative to signal for deeper divergences and find increased agreement between data sets. Second, we present formulae for calculating the probabilities of finding predefined groupings in the optimal tree. Finally, we report a significant increase in data: nine new mitochondrial (mt) genomes (the dollarbird, New Zealand kingfisher, great potoo, Australian owlet-nightjar, white-tailed trogon, barn owl, a roadrunner [a ground cuckoo], New Zealand long-tailed cuckoo, and the peach-faced lovebird) and together they provide data for each of the six main groups of Neoaves proposed by Cracraft J (2001). We use his six main groups of modern birds as priors for evaluation of results. These include passerines, cuckoos, parrots, and three other groups termed “WoodKing” (woodpeckers/rollers/kingfishers), “SCA” (owls/potoos/owlet-nightjars/hummingbirds/swifts), and “Conglomerati.” In general, the support is highly significant with just two exceptions, the owls move from the “SCA” group to the raptors, particularly accipitrids (buzzards/eagles) and the osprey, and the shorebirds may be an independent group from the rest of the “Conglomerati”. Molecular dating mt genomes support a major diversification of at least 12 neoavian lineages in the Late Cretaceous. Our results form a basis for further testing with both nuclear-coding sequences and rare genomic changes.

Bird evolution: testing the Metaves clade with six new mitochondrial genomes

Background Evolutionary biologists are often misled by convergence of morphology and this has been common in the study of bird evolution. However, the use of molecular data sets have their own problems and phylogenies based on short DNA sequences have the potential to mislead us too. The relationships among clades and timing of the evolution of modern birds (Neoaves) has not yet been well resolved. Evidence of convergence of morphology remain controversial. With six new bird mitochondrial genomes (hummingbird, swift, kagu, rail, flamingo and grebe) we test the proposed Metaves/Coronaves division within Neoaves and the parallel radiations in this primary avian clade. Results Our mitochondrial trees did not return the Metaves clade that had been proposed based on one nuclear intron sequence. We suggest that the high number of indels within the seventh intron of the β-fibrinogen gene at this phylogenetic level, which left a dataset with not a single site across the alignment shared by all taxa, resulted in artifacts during analysis. With respect to the overall avian tree, we find the flamingo and grebe are sister taxa and basal to the shorebirds (Charadriiformes). Using a novel site-stripping technique for noise-reduction we found this relationship to be stable. The hummingbird/swift clade is outside the large and very diverse group of raptors, shore and sea birds. Unexpectedly the kagu is not closely related to the rail in our analysis, but because neither the kagu nor the rail have close affinity to any taxa within this dataset of 41 birds, their placement is not yet resolved. Conclusion Our phylogenetic hypothesis based on 41 avian mitochondrial genomes (13,229 bp) rejects monophyly of seven Metaves species and we therefore conclude that the members of Metaves do not share a common evolutionary history within the Neoaves.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

Concept combination and the origins of complex cognition

At the core of our uniquely human cognitive abilities is the capacity to see things from different perspectives, or to place them in a new context. We propose that this was made possible by two cognitive transitions. First, the large brain of Homo erectus facilitated the onset of recursive recall: the ability to string thoughts together into a stream of potentially abstract or imaginative thought. This hypothesis is sup-ported by a set of computational models where an artificial society of agents evolved to generate more diverse and valuable cultural outputs under conditions of recursive recall. We propose that the capacity to see things in context arose much later, following the appearance of anatomically modern humans. This second transition was brought on by the onset of contextual focus: the capacity to shift between a minimally contextual analytic mode of thought, and a highly contextual associative mode of thought, conducive to combining concepts in new ways and ‘breaking out of a rut’. When contextual focus is implemented in an art-generating computer program, the resulting artworks are seen as more creative and appealing. We summarize how both transitions can be modeled using a theory of concepts which high-lights the manner in which different contexts can lead to modern humans attributing very different meanings to the interpretation of one concept.

The role of insulin in advanced prostate cancer

Advanced prostate cancer is a common and generally incurable disease. Androgen deprivation therapy is used to treat advanced prostate cancer with good benefits to quality of life and regression of disease. Prostate cancer invariably progresses however despite ongoing treatment, to a castrate resistant state. Androgen deprivation is associated with a form of metabolic syndrome, which includes insulin resistance and hyperinsulinaemia. The mitogenic and anti-apoptotic properties of insulin acting through the insulin and hybrid insulin/IGF-1 receptors seem to have positive effects on prostate tumour growth. This pilot study was designed to assess any correlation between elevated insulin levels and progression to castrate resistant prostate cancer. Methods: 36 men receiving ADT for advanced prostate cancer were recruited, at various stages of their treatment, along with 47 controls, men with localised prostate cancer pre-treatment. Serum measurements of C-peptide (used as a surrogate marker for insulin production) were performed and compared between groups. Correlation between serum C-peptide level and time to progression to castrate resistant disease was assessed. Results: There was a significant elevation of C-peptide levels in the ADT group (mean = 1639pmol/L)) compared to the control group (mean = 1169pmol/L), with a p-value of 0.025. In 17 men with good initial response to androgen deprivation, a small negative trend towards earlier progression to castrate resistance with increasing C-peptide level was seen in the ADT group (r = -0.050), however this did not reach statistical significance (p>0.1). Conclusions: This pilot study confirms an increase in serum C-peptide levels in men receiving ADT for advance prostate cancer. A non-significant, but negative trend towards earlier progression to castrate resistance with increasing C-peptide suggests the need for a formal prospective study assessing this hypothesis.

Factors affecting pedestrian crossing behaviours at signalized crosswalks in urban areas in Beijing and Singapore

This paper reports an observation investigation of pedestrian crossing behaviors conducted at signalized crosswalks in urban areas in Singapore and Beijing on typical workdays. Each crosswalk was observed 3 times in different periods, i.e. normal hours, lunch hours, and rush hours. A total of 103,956 pedestrians were observed. The results showed that lane type, lane number, intersection type, and culture had significant effect on illegal pedestrian crossing in both cities; observation period had no significant effect on pedestrian violation in both cities; the violation rate in Singapore was lower than that in Beijing. However, observers reported that illegal crossing of vulnerable pedestrians, e.g. pregnant, the lame, old men and women, was more obvious in Singapore than that in Beijing. Evidence proved the hypothesis that the violations were related to pedestrians’ cognition of the definition of safety.

An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland

The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

Design and rationale of a Prospective, Observational European Multicenter study on the efficacy of acute surgical decompression after traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: the SCI-POEM study

Objectives:Despite many years of research, there is currently no treatment available that results in major neurological or functional recovery after traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI). In particular, no conclusive data related to the role of the timing of decompressive surgery, and the impact of injury severity on its benefit, have been published to date. This paper presents a protocol that was designed to examine the hypothesized association between the timing of surgical decompression and the extent of neurological recovery in tSCI patients.Study design: The SCI-POEM study is a Prospective, Observational European Multicenter comparative cohort study. This study compares acute (<12 h) versus non-acute (>12 h, <2 weeks) decompressive surgery in patients with a traumatic spinal column injury and concomitant spinal cord injury. The sample size calculation was based on a representative European patient cohort of 492 tSCI patients. During a 4-year period, 300 patients will need to be enrolled from 10 trauma centers across Europe. The primary endpoint is lower-extremity motor score as assessed according to the 'International standards for neurological classification of SCI' at 12 months after injury. Secondary endpoints include motor, sensory, imaging and functional outcomes at 3, 6 and 12 months after injury.Conclusion:In order to minimize bias and reduce the impact of confounders, special attention is paid to key methodological principles in this study protocol. A significant difference in safety and/or efficacy endpoints will provide meaningful information to clinicians, as this would confirm the hypothesis that rapid referral to and treatment in specialized centers result in important improvements in tSCI patients.Spinal Cord advance online publication, 17 April 2012; doi:10.1038/sc.2012.34.

Numerical simulation of a new two-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation in non-homogeneous porous media

Percolation flow problems are discussed in many research fields, such as seepage hydraulics, groundwater hydraulics, groundwater dynamics and fluid dynamics in porous media. Many physical processes appear to exhibit fractional-order behavior that may vary with time, or space, or space and time. The theory of pseudodifferential operators and equations has been used to deal with this situation. In this paper we use a fractional Darcys law with variable order Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives, this leads to a new variable-order fractional percolation equation. In this paper, a new two-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation is considered. A new implicit numerical method and an alternating direct method for the two-dimensional variable-order fractional model is proposed. Consistency, stability and convergence of the implicit finite difference method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methods. This technique can be used to simulate a three-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation.