Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Constructing the ideal victim in the United States of America's annual trafficking in persons reports

Human trafficking as a global phenomenon continues to elude accurate quantitative measure, and remains a controversial policy domain significantly influenced by anecdotal evidence. Drawing on the policy analysis framework of Bacchi (1999; 2007) the problem representation of trafficking through narratives can be considered a direct antecedent of contemporary anti-human trafficking policy. This article explores the construction of human trafficking within the Trafficking in Persons Reports, published annually by the United States of America’s Department of State. An examination of the victim and offender narratives contained within the reports published between 2001 and 2012 demonstrates that human trafficking is predominantly represented as a crime committed by ideal offenders against idealized victims, consistent with Christie’s (1986) landmark criteria of ideal victimization. This representation of an ideal prototype has the potential to inform policy that diverts focus from the causative role of global socioeconomic injustice towards criminal justice policies targeting individual offenders.

Third post-Newtonian angular momentum flux and the secular evolution of orbital elements for inspiralling compact binaries in quasi-elliptical orbits

The angular-momentum flux from an inspiralling binary system of compact objects moving in quasi-elliptical orbits is computed at the third post-Newtonian (3PN) order using the multipolar post-Minkowskian wave generation formalism. The 3PN angular-momentum flux involves the instantaneous, tail, and tail-of-tails contributions as for the 3PN energy flux, and in addition a contribution due to nonlinear memory. We average the angular-momentum flux over the binary's orbit using the 3PN quasi-Keplerian representation of elliptical orbits. The averaged angular-momentum flux provides the final input needed for gravitational-wave phasing of binaries moving in quasi-elliptical orbits. We obtain the evolution of orbital elements under 3PN gravitational radiation reaction in the quasi-elliptic case. For small eccentricities, we give simpler limiting expressions relevant for phasing up to order e(2). This work is important for the construction of templates for quasi-eccentric binaries, and for the comparison of post-Newtonian results with the numerical relativity simulations of the plunge and merger of eccentric binaries.

Automated inspection of aircraft parts using a modified ICP algorithm

The application of computer-aided inspection integrated with the coordinate measuring machine and laser scanners to inspect manufactured aircraft parts using robust registration of two-point datasets is a subject of active research in computational metrology. This paper presents a novel approach to automated inspection by matching shapes based on the modified iterative closest point (ICP) method to define a criterion for the acceptance or rejection of a part. This procedure improves upon existing methods by doing away with the following, viz., the need for constructing either a tessellated or smooth representation of the inspected part and requirements for an a priori knowledge of approximate registration and correspondence between the points representing the computer-aided design datasets and the part to be inspected. In addition, this procedure establishes a better measure for error between the two matched datasets. The use of localized region-based triangulation is proposed for tracking the error. The approach described improves the convergence of the ICP technique with a dramatic decrease in computational effort. Experimental results obtained by implementing this proposed approach using both synthetic and practical data show that the present method is efficient and robust. This method thereby validates the algorithm, and the examples demonstrate its potential to be used in engineering applications.

Adsorption of Nitrogen on Activated Carbon-Refit of Experimental Data and Derivation of Properties Required for Design of Equipment

Volumetric method based adsorption measurements of nitrogen on two specimens of activated carbon (Fluka and Sarabhai) reported by us are refitted to two popular isotherms, namely, Dubunin−Astakhov (D−A) and Toth, in light of improved fitting methods derived recently. Those isotherms have been used to derive other data of relevance in design of engineering equipment such as the concentration dependence of heat of adsorption and Henry’s law coefficients. The present fits provide a better representation of experimental measurements than before because the temperature dependence of adsorbed phase volume and structural heterogeneity of micropore distribution have been accounted for in the D−A equation. A new correlation to the Toth equation is a further contribution. The heat of adsorption in the limiting uptake condition is correlated with the Henry’s law coefficients at the near zero uptake condition.

Algebraic Cryptanalysis of CTRU Cryptosystem

CTRU, a public key cryptosystem was proposed by Gaborit, Ohler and Sole. It is analogue of NTRU, the ring of integers replaced by the ring of polynomials $\mathbb{F}_2[T]$ . It attracted attention as the attacks based on either LLL algorithm or the Chinese Remainder Theorem are avoided on it, which is most common on NTRU. In this paper we presents a polynomial-time algorithm that breaks CTRU for all recommended parameter choices that were derived to make CTRU secure against popov normal form attack. The paper shows if we ascertain the constraints for perfect decryption then either plaintext or private key can be achieved by polynomial time linear algebra attack.

On the Cubicity of AT-Free Graphs and Circular-Arc Graphs

A unit cube in k dimensions (k-cube) is defined as the Cartesian product R-1 x R-2 x ... x R-k where R-i (for 1 <= i <= k) is a closed interval of the form [a(i), a(i) + 1] on the real line. A graph G on n nodes is said to be representable as the intersection of k-cubes (cube representation in k dimensions) if each vertex of C can be mapped to a k-cube such that two vertices are adjacent in G if and only if their corresponding k-cubes have a non-empty intersection. The cubicity of G denoted as cub(G) is the minimum k for which G can be represented as the intersection of k-cubes. An interesting aspect about cubicity is that many problems known to be NP-complete for general graphs have polynomial time deterministic algorithms or have good approximation ratios in graphs of low cubicity. In most of these algorithms, computing a low dimensional cube representation of the given graph is usually the first step. We give an O(bw . n) algorithm to compute the cube representation of a general graph G in bw + 1 dimensions given a bandwidth ordering of the vertices of G, where bw is the bandwidth of G. As a consequence, we get O(Delta) upper bounds on the cubicity of many well-known graph classes such as AT-free graphs, circular-arc graphs and cocomparability graphs which have O(Delta) bandwidth. Thus we have: 1. cub(G) <= 3 Delta - 1, if G is an AT-free graph. 2. cub(G) <= 2 Delta + 1, if G is a circular-arc graph. 3. cub(G) <= 2 Delta, if G is a cocomparability graph. Also for these graph classes, there axe constant factor approximation algorithms for bandwidth computation that generate orderings of vertices with O(Delta) width. We can thus generate the cube representation of such graphs in O(Delta) dimensions in polynomial time.

Multi-Tone Testing of Linear and Nonlinear Analog Circuits using Polynomial Coefficients

A method of testing for parametric faults of analog circuits based on a polynomial representation of fault-free function of the circuit is presented. The response of the circuit under test (CUT) is estimated as a polynomial in the applied input voltage at relevant frequencies in addition to DC. Classification or Cur is based on a comparison of the estimated polynomial coefficients with those of the fault free circuit. This testing method requires no design for test hardware as might be added to the circuit fly some other methods. The proposed method is illustrated for a benchmark elliptic filter. It is shown to uncover several parametric faults causing deviations as small as 5% from the nominal values.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

Conformal Field Theory Methods for Variants of Schramm-Loewner Evolutions

This thesis consists of an introduction, four research articles and an appendix. The thesis studies relations between two different approaches to continuum limit of models of two dimensional statistical mechanics at criticality. The approach of conformal field theory (CFT) could be thought of as the algebraic classification of some basic objects in these models. It has been succesfully used by physicists since 1980's. The other approach, Schramm-Loewner evolutions (SLEs), is a recently introduced set of mathematical methods to study random curves or interfaces occurring in the continuum limit of the models. The first and second included articles argue on basis of statistical mechanics what would be a plausible relation between SLEs and conformal field theory. The first article studies multiple SLEs, several random curves simultaneously in a domain. The proposed definition is compatible with a natural commutation requirement suggested by Dubédat. The curves of multiple SLE may form different topological configurations, ``pure geometries''. We conjecture a relation between the topological configurations and CFT concepts of conformal blocks and operator product expansions. Example applications of multiple SLEs include crossing probabilities for percolation and Ising model. The second article studies SLE variants that represent models with boundary conditions implemented by primary fields. The most well known of these, SLE(kappa, rho), is shown to be simple in terms of the Coulomb gas formalism of CFT. In the third article the space of local martingales for variants of SLE is shown to carry a representation of Virasoro algebra. Finding this structure is guided by the relation of SLEs and CFTs in general, but the result is established in a straightforward fashion. This article, too, emphasizes multiple SLEs and proposes a possible way of treating pure geometries in terms of Coulomb gas. The fourth article states results of applications of the Virasoro structure to the open questions of SLE reversibility and duality. Proofs of the stated results are provided in the appendix. The objective is an indirect computation of certain polynomial expected values. Provided that these expected values exist, in generic cases they are shown to possess the desired properties, thus giving support for both reversibility and duality.

Non-Fermi liquid theory of quantum hall effects

Within the Grassmannian U(2N)/U(N) x U(N) nonlinear sigma-model representation of localization, one can study the low-energy dynamics of both a free and interacting electron gas. We study the crossover between these two fundamentally different physical problems. We show how the topological arguments for the exact quantization of the Hall conductance are extended to include the Coulomb interaction problem. We discuss dynamical scaling and make contact with the theory of variable range hopping. (C) 2005 Pleiades Publishing, Inc.

An alternate form of the ramberg-osgood formula for matrix displacement analysis

A new stress-strain law, which is a three parameter representation of stress in terms of strain has been proposed for the matrix displacement analysis of structures made of non-hookean materials. This formula has been utilized to study three typical problems. These studies brought out the effectiveness and suitability of this law for matrix displacement analysis.

Hardness of approximation results for the problem of finding the stopping distance in Tanner graphs

Tanner Graph representation of linear block codes is widely used by iterative decoding algorithms for recovering data transmitted across a noisy communication channel from errors and erasures introduced by the channel. The stopping distance of a Tanner graph T for a binary linear block code C determines the number of erasures correctable using iterative decoding on the Tanner graph T when data is transmitted across a binary erasure channel using the code C. We show that the problem of finding the stopping distance of a Tanner graph is hard to approximate within any positive constant approximation ratio in polynomial time unless P = NP. It is also shown as a consequence that there can be no approximation algorithm for the problem achieving an approximation ratio of 2(log n)(1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0 unless NP subset of DTIME(n(poly(log n))).

Robust prediction of residual velocities and ballistic limits of projectiles for impact on thin aluminium plates

This paper deals with the simulation-driven study of the impact of hardened steel projectiles on thin aluminium target plates using explicit finite element analysis as implemented in LS-DYNA. The evaluation of finite element modelling includes a comprehensive mesh convergence study using shell elements for representing target plates and the solid element-based representation of ogivalnosed projectiles. A user-friendly automatic contact detection algorithm is used for capturing interaction between the projectile and the target plate. It is shown that the proper choice of mesh density and strain rate-dependent material properties is crucial as these parameters significantly affect the computed residual velocity. The efficacy of correlation with experimental data is adjudged in terms of a 'correlation index' defined in the present study for which values close to unity are desirable.By simulating laboratory impact tests on thin aluminium plates carried out by earlier investigators, extremely good prediction of experimental ballistic limits has been observed with correlation indices approaching unity. Additional simulation-based parametric studies have been carried out and results consistent with test data have been obtained. The simulation procedures followed in the present study can be applied with confidence in designing thin aluminium armour plates for protection against low calibre projectiles.

Memory-based reasoning approach for pattern recognition of binary images

Template matching is concerned with measuring the similarity between patterns of two objects. This paper proposes a memory-based reasoning approach for pattern recognition of binary images with a large template set. It seems that memory-based reasoning intrinsically requires a large database. Moreover, some binary image recognition problems inherently need large template sets, such as the recognition of Chinese characters which needs thousands of templates. The proposed algorithm is based on the Connection Machine, which is the most massively parallel machine to date, using a multiresolution method to search for the matching template. The approach uses the pyramid data structure for the multiresolution representation of templates and the input image pattern. For a given binary image it scans the template pyramid searching the match. A binary image of N × N pixels can be matched in O(log N) time complexity by our algorithm and is independent of the number of templates. Implementation of the proposed scheme is described in detail.