Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Quality of work life among primary health care nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia : a crosssectional study

Background: Quality of work life (QWL) is defined as the extent to which employee is satisfied with personal and working needs through participating in the workplace while achieving the organisation’s goals. QWL has been found to influence the commitment and productivity of employees in healthcare organisations, as well as in other industries. However, reliable information on the QWL of PHC nurses is limited. The purpose of this study was to assess the QWL among PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia. Methods: A descriptive research design, namely, a cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of quality of nursing work life (QNWL) and demographic questions. A convenience sample was recruited from 143 PHC centres in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. The Jazan region is located in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. A response rate of 91% (N = 532/585) was achieved (effective RR = 87%, n = 508). Data analysis consisted of descriptive statistics, t-test and one way-analysis of variance. Total scores and sub-scores for QWL Items and item summary statistics were computed and reported, using SPSS version 17 for Windows. Results: Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life. The major influencing factors were unsuitable working hours/shifts, lack of facilities for nurses, inability to balance work with family needs, inadequacy of family-leave time, poor staffing, management and supervision practices, lack of professional development opportunities, and inappropriate working environment in terms of the level of security, patient care supplies and equipment, and recreation facilities (Break-area). Other essential factors include the community’s view of nursing and inadequate salary. More positively, the majority of nurses were satisfied with their co-workers, satisfied to be nurses and had a sense of belonging in their workplaces. Significant differences were found according to gender, age, marital status, dependent children, dependent adults, nationality, ethnicity, nursing tenure, organisational tenure, positional tenure, and payment per month. No significant differences were found according to education level and location of PHC. Conclusions: These findings can be used by PHC managers and policy makers for developing and appropriately implementing successful plans to improve the QWL. This will help to enhance the home and work environments, improve individual and organisation performance and increase nurses’ commitment.

The relationship between quality of work life and turnover intention of primary health care nurses in Saudi Arabia

Background Quality of work life (QWL) has been found to influence the commitment of health professionals including nurses. However, reliable information on the QWL and turnover intention of primary health care (PHC) nurses is limited. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between QWL and turnover intention of PHC nurses in Saudi Arabia. Methods A cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of Quality of Nursing Work life (QNWL), the Anticipated Turnover Scale and demographic data questions. A total of 508 PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia completed the questionnaire (RR = 87%). Descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, General Linear Model (GLM) univariate analysis, standard multiple regression (SMR), and hierarchical multiple regression (HMR) were applied for analysis using SPSS v17 for Windows. Results Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life, with almost 40% indicating a turnover intention from their current PHC centres. Turnover intention was significantly related to QWL. Using SMR, 26% of the variance in turnover intention was explained by the QWL, p < 0.001, with R² = .263. Further analysis using HMR found that the total variance explained by the model as a whole (demographics and QWL) was 32.1%, p < 0.001. QWL explained an additional 19% of the variance in turnover intention, after controlling for demographic variables. Conclusions Creating and maintaining a healthy work life for PHC nurses is very important to improve their work satisfaction, reduce turnover, enhance productivity and improve nursing care outcomes.

The relationship between unsafe working conditions and workers’ behavior and their impacts on injury severity in the U.S.

Unsafe acts of workers (e.g. misjudgment, inappropriate operation) become the major root causes of construction accidents when they are combined with unsafe working conditions (e.g. working surface conditions, weather) on a construction site. The overarching goal of the research presented in this paper is to explore ways to prevent unsafe acts of workers and reduce the likelihood of construction accidents occurring. The study specifically aims to (1) understand the relationships between human behavior related and working condition related risk factors, (2) identify the significant behavior and condition factors and their impacts on accident types (e.g. struck by/against, caught in/between, falling, shock, inhalation/ingestion/absorption, respiratory failure) and injury severity (e.g. fatality, hospitalized, non-hospitalized), and (3) analyze the fundamental accident-injury relationship on how each accident type contributes to the injury severity. The study reviewed 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011. The large number of accident samples supported reliable statistical analyses. The analysis identified a total of 17 significant correlations between behavior and condition factors and distinguished key risk factors that highly impacted on the determination of accident types and injury severity. The research outcomes will assist safety managers to control specific unsafe acts of workers by eliminating the associated unsafe working conditions and vice versa. They also can prioritize risk factors and pay more attention to controlling them in order to achieve a safer working environment.

Reliability of partial ambiguity fixing with multiple GNSS constellations

Reliable ambiguity resolution (AR) is essential to Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning and its applications, since incorrect ambiguity fixing can lead to largely biased positioning solutions. A partial ambiguity fixing technique is developed to improve the reliability of AR, involving partial ambiguity decorrelation (PAD) and partial ambiguity resolution (PAR). Decorrelation transformation could substantially amplify the biases in the phase measurements. The purpose of PAD is to find the optimum trade-off between decorrelation and worst-case bias amplification. The concept of PAR refers to the case where only a subset of the ambiguities can be fixed correctly to their integers in the integer least-squares (ILS) estimation system at high success rates. As a result, RTK solutions can be derived from these integer-fixed phase measurements. This is meaningful provided that the number of reliably resolved phase measurements is sufficiently large for least-square estimation of RTK solutions as well. Considering the GPS constellation alone, partially fixed measurements are often insufficient for positioning. The AR reliability is usually characterised by the AR success rate. In this contribution an AR validation decision matrix is firstly introduced to understand the impact of success rate. Moreover the AR risk probability is included into a more complete evaluation of the AR reliability. We use 16 ambiguity variance-covariance matrices with different levels of success rate to analyse the relation between success rate and AR risk probability. Next, the paper examines during the PAD process, how a bias in one measurement is propagated and amplified onto many others, leading to more than one wrong integer and to affect the success probability. Furthermore, the paper proposes a partial ambiguity fixing procedure with a predefined success rate criterion and ratio-test in the ambiguity validation process. In this paper, the Galileo constellation data is tested with simulated observations. Numerical results from our experiment clearly demonstrate that only when the computed success rate is very high, the AR validation can provide decisions about the correctness of AR which are close to real world, with both low AR risk and false alarm probabilities. The results also indicate that the PAR procedure can automatically chose adequate number of ambiguities to fix at given high-success rate from the multiple constellations instead of fixing all the ambiguities. This is a benefit that multiple GNSS constellations can offer.

The effect of alcohol and drug consumption on academic performance : a treatment effect evaluation

It is often argued that consumption of alcohol, tobacco and drugs is detrimental to the cognitive abilities of teenagers. In order to disentangle a possible causal effect of these substances use from a self-selection bias, we control for pupils previous performance and for their previous rate of progression applying a DiDiD strategy. Using the NELS 1988 panel dataset, we find that the effects of alcohol and tobacco on test scores disappear once the selection bias is controlled for (this does not preclude long term detrimental effects). However, we find reliable evidence that heavy use of drugs (marijuana and cocaine) has direct detrimental effects on educational achievements. Hence, our results may have significant policy implications.

Understanding process behaviours in a large insurance company in Australia : a case study

Having a reliable understanding about the behaviours, problems, and performance of existing processes is important in enabling a targeted process improvement initiative. Recently, there has been an increase in the application of innovative process mining techniques to facilitate evidence-based understanding about organizations' business processes. Nevertheless, the application of these techniques in the domain of finance in Australia is, at best, scarce. This paper details a 6-month case study on the application of process mining in one of the largest insurance companies in Australia. In particular, the challenges encountered, the lessons learned, and the results obtained from this case study are detailed. Through this case study, we not only validated existing `lessons learned' from other similar case studies, but also added new insights that can be beneficial to other practitioners in applying process mining in their respective fields.

Development and validation of the consumer disillusionment toward marketing activity scale

This study examines disillusioned consumers. The theory proposes that this is a group learning to lower their expectations of firm integrity and who, to avoid being let down, ignore marketing activity directly from the firm. This kind of exchange orientation develops as a response to consistent failure in perceptions of firm integrity. The research includes six studies, including over 600 adult consumers, to outline the development and validation of a measure of consumer disillusionment toward marketing activity. Completing the process provides a valid and reliable four-item measure. In addition, the study includes the assessment of the nomological validity of the construct. The nomological validation includes using cue utilization theory to predict that disillusioned consumers favor advertising that provides evidence of verifiable integrity. The validation experiment uses print advertising containing high and low verifiable integrity stimuli. Results confirm the theory with disillusioned consumers focusing less on the firm as source of information. Further, these consumers respond more favorably than non-disillusioned consumers to third party endorsers who serve to verify the firm's attempts to show integrity.

Family-based programmes for preventing smoking by children and adolescents

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that children's decisions to smoke are influenced by family and friends. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of interventions to help family members to strengthen non-smoking attitudes and promote non-smoking by children and other family members. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched 14 electronic bibliographic databases, including the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group specialized register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL. We also searched unpublished material, and the reference lists of key articles. We performed both free-text Internet searches and targeted searches of appropriate websites, and we hand-searched key journals not available electronically. We also consulted authors and experts in the field. The most recent search was performed in July 2006. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions with children (aged 5-12) or adolescents (aged 13-18) and family members to deter the use of tobacco. The primary outcome was the effect of the intervention on the smoking status of children who reported no use of tobacco at baseline. Included trials had to report outcomes measured at least six months from the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We reviewed all potentially relevant citations and retrieved the full text to determine whether the study was an RCT and matched our inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted study data and assessed them for methodological quality. The studies were too limited in number and quality to undertake a formal meta-analysis, and we present a narrative synthesis. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 19 RCTs of family interventions to prevent smoking. We identified five RCTs in Category 1 (minimal risk of bias on all counts); nine in Category 2 (a risk of bias in one or more areas); and five in Category 3 (risks of bias in design and execution such that reliable conclusions cannot be drawn from the study).Considering the fourteen Category 1 and 2 studies together: (1) four of the nine that tested a family intervention against a control group had significant positive effects, but one showed significant negative effects; (2) one of the five RCTs that tested a family intervention against a school intervention had significant positive effects; (3) none of the six that compared the incremental effects of a family plus a school programme to a school programme alone had significant positive effects; (4) the one RCT that tested a family tobacco intervention against a family non-tobacco safety intervention showed no effects; and (5) the one trial that used general risk reduction interventions found the group which received the parent and teen interventions had less smoking than the one that received only the teen intervention (there was no tobacco intervention but tobacco outcomes were measured). For the included trials the amount of implementer training and the fidelity of implementation are related to positive outcomes, but the number of sessions is not. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Some well-executed RCTs show family interventions may prevent adolescent smoking, but RCTs which were less well executed had mostly neutral or negative results. There is thus a need for well-designed and executed RCTs in this area.

Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks Method of age estimation in an Australian subpopulation using computed tomography of the pubic symphyseal surface

Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three-dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi-square statistics demonstrated 63.9% and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S-B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S-B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S-B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S-B method should be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques.

Review of guidelines for children’s vision screenings

The aim of children's vision screenings is to detect visual problems that are common in this age category through valid and reliable tests. Nevertheless, the cost effectiveness of paediatric vision screenings, the nature of the tests included in the screening batteries and the ideal screening age has been the cause of much debate in Australia and worldwide. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to report on the current practice of children's vision screenings in Australia and other countries, as well as to evaluate the evidence for and against the provision of such screenings. This was undertaken through a detailed investigation of peer-reviewed publications on this topic. The current review demonstrates that there is no agreed vision screening protocol for children in Australia. This appears to be a result of the lack of strong evidence supporting the benefit of such screenings. While amblyopia, strabismus and, to a lesser extent refractive error, are targeted by many screening programs during pre-school and at school entry, there is less agreement regarding the value of screening for other visual conditions, such as binocular vision disorders, ocular health problems and refractive errors that are less likely to reduce distance visual acuity. In addition, in Australia, little agreement exists in the frequency and coverage of screening programs between states and territories and the screening programs that are offered are ad hoc and poorly documented. Australian children stand to benefit from improved cohesion and communication between jurisdictions and health professionals to enable an equitable provision of validated vision screening services that have the best chance of early detection and intervention for a range of paediatric visual problems.

Circulating tumour cells, their role in metastasis and their clinical utility in lung cancer

Circulating tumour cells (CTCs) have attracted much recent interest in cancer research as a potential biomarker and as a means of studying the process of metastasis. It has long been understood that metastasis is a hallmark of malignancy, and conceptual theories on the basis of metastasis from the nineteenth century foretold the existence of a tumour "seed" which is capable of establishing discrete tumours in the "soil" of distant organs. This prescient "seed and soil" hypothesis accurately predicted the existence of CTCs; microscopic tumour fragments in the blood, at least some of which are capable of forming metastases. However, it is only in recent years that reliable, reproducible methods of CTC detection and analysis have been developed. To date, the majority of studies have employed the CellSearch™ system (Veridex LLC), which is an immunomagnetic purification method. Other promising techniques include microfluidic filters, isolation of tumour cells by size using microporous polycarbonate filters and flow cytometry-based approaches. While many challenges still exist, the detection of CTCs in blood is becoming increasingly feasible, giving rise to some tantalizing questions about the use of CTCs as a potential biomarker. CTC enumeration has been used to guide prognosis in patients with metastatic disease, and to act as a surrogate marker for disease response during therapy. Other possible uses for CTC detection include prognostication in early stage patients, identifying patients requiring adjuvant therapy, or in surveillance, for the detection of relapsing disease. Another exciting possible use for CTC detection assays is the molecular and genetic characterization of CTCs to act as a "liquid biopsy" representative of the primary tumour. Indeed it has already been demonstrated that it is possible to detect HER2, KRAS and EGFR mutation status in breast, colon and lung cancer CTCs respectively. In the course of this review, we shall discuss the biology of CTCs and their role in metastagenesis, the most commonly used techniques for their detection and the evidence to date of their clinical utility, with particular reference to lung cancer.

Development and review of vignettes representing older people with cognitive impairment

This paper describes a process undertaken to develop and review five clinical vignettes to be used in geriatric nursing educational research. The purpose of this process was to provide valid depictions of delirium and its subtypes and distinguish delirium from dementia. Five vignettes depicting hospital bedside interactions between nursing staff, family, and an older patient who displayed signs of one of the following conditions: delirium (hyper and hypo-active types respectively), dementia, or delirium (both types) superimposed on dementia were constructed. Vignette accuracy and reliability was established using a multistage process that culminated in formal review by a group of ten international nursing and medical delirium experts. The final five vignettes accurately depicted the given scenario as agreed by the experts and were at an appropriate level of simplicity and clarity. Given the increased interest in vignettes for both nursing research and educational purposes, the described method of vignette development and review has the ability to assist other vignette developers in creating reliable representations of their desired clinical scenarios.

A comment on "Inherited Trust and Growth"

Algan and Cahuc (2010) argue that “inherited trust” is a key factor in explaining growth rates across countries. They derive a measure of inherited trust by linking respondents’ “home countries: in the United States General Social Survey (1972-2004) and the 2000 wave of the World Values Survey. Algan and Cahuc then estimate trust levels for people born before 1910 (inherited trust in 1935) and afterwards (inherited trust in 2000). They show a strong link between economic growth rates and inherited trust. We do not challenge this result, but we do argue that: (1) The 2000 World Values Survey has many anomalous results; (2) the estimates for inherited trust in 1935 are mostly based upon tiny samples for most ethnic heritage groups in the General Social Survey; and (3) Algan and Cahuc’s findings are based upon two-tailed rather than one-tailed tests. We reestimate their model using the more reliable waves of the World Values Survey and find much weaker relationships between inherited trust in 1935 and trust in the home country. We also suggest caution in the overall measure of inherited trust in 1935.

Information support for health management in regional Sri Lanka : health managers’ perspectives

Good management, supported by accurate, timely and reliable health information, is vital for increasing the effectiveness of Health Information Systems (HIS). When it comes to managing the under resourced health systems of developing countries, information-based decision making is particularly important. This paper reports findings of a self-report survey that investigated perceptions of local health managers (HMs) of their own regional HIS in Sri Lanka. Data were collected through a validated, pre-tested postal questionnaire, and distributed among a selected group of HMs to elicit their perceptions of the current HIS in relation to information generation, acquisition and use, required reforms to the information system and application of information and communication technology (ICT). Results based on descriptive statistics indicated that the regional HIS was poorly organised and in need of reform; that management support for the system was unsatisfactory in terms of relevance, accuracy, timeliness and accessibility; that political pressure and community and donor requests took precedence over vital health information when management decisions were made; and use of ICT was unsatisfactory. HIS strengths included user-friendly paper formats, a centralised planning system and an efficient disease notification system; weaknesses were lack of comprehensiveness, inaccuracy, and lack of a feedback system. Responses of participants indicated that HIS would be improved by adopting an internationally accepted framework and introducing ICT applications. Perceived barriers to such improvements were high initial cost of educating staff to improve computer literacy, introduction of ICTs, and HIS restructure. We concluded that the regional HIS of Central Province, Sri Lanka had failed to provide much needed information support to HMs. These findings are consistent with similar research in other developing countries and reinforce the need for further research to verify causes of poor performance and to design strategic reforms to improve HIS in regional Sri Lanka.