The precipitation climate of Central Asia: intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region

In this study, we systematically compare a wide range of observational and numerical precipitation datasets for Central Asia. Data considered include two re-analyses, three datasets based on direct observations, and the output of a regional climate model simulation driven by a global re-analysis. These are validated and intercompared with respect to their ability to represent the Central Asian precipitation climate. In each of the datasets, we consider the mean spatial distribution and the seasonal cycle of precipitation, the amplitude of interannual variability, the representation of individual yearly anomalies, the precipitation sensitivity (i.e. the response to wet and dry conditions), and the temporal homogeneity of precipitation. Additionally, we carried out part of these analyses for datasets available in real time. The mutual agreement between the observations is used as an indication of how far these data can be used for validating precipitation data from other sources. In particular, we show that the observations usually agree qualitatively on anomalies in individual years while it is not always possible to use them for the quantitative validation of the amplitude of interannual variability. The regional climate model is capable of improving the spatial distribution of precipitation. At the same time, it strongly underestimates summer precipitation and its variability, while interannual variations are well represented during the other seasons, in particular in the Central Asian mountains during winter and spring

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO₂ concentration

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Kerb and urban increment of highly time-resolved trace elements in PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 winter aerosol in London during ClearfLo 2012

Ambient concentrations of trace elements with 2 h time resolution were measured in PM10–2.5, PM2.5–1.0 and PM1.0–0.3 size ranges at kerbside, urban background and rural sites in London during winter 2012. Samples were collected using rotating drum impactors (RDIs) and subsequently analysed with synchrotron radiation-induced X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (SR-XRF). Quantification of kerb and urban increments (defined as kerb-to-urban and urban-to-rural concentration ratios, respectively), and assessment of diurnal and weekly variability provided insight into sources governing urban air quality and the effects of urban micro-environments on human exposure. Traffic-related elements yielded the highest kerb increments, with values in the range of 10.4 to 16.6 for SW winds (3.3–6.9 for NE) observed for elements influenced by brake wear (e.g. Cu, Sb, Ba) and 5.7 to 8.2 for SW (2.6–3.0 for NE) for other traffic-related processes (e.g. Cr, Fe, Zn). Kerb increments for these elements were highest in the PM10–2.5 mass fraction, roughly twice that of the PM1.0–0.3 fraction. These elements also showed the highest urban increments (~ 3.0), although no difference was observed between brake wear and other traffic-related elements. All elements influenced by traffic exhibited higher concentrations during morning and evening rush hours, and on weekdays compared to weekends, with the strongest trends observed at the kerbside site, and additionally enhanced by winds coming directly from the road, consistent with street canyon effects. Elements related to mineral dust (e.g. Al, Si, Ca, Sr) showed significant influences from traffic-induced resuspension, as evidenced by moderate kerb (3.4–5.4 for SW, 1.7–2.3 for NE) and urban (~ 2) increments and increased concentrations during peak traffic flow. Elements related to regional transport showed no significant enhancement at kerb or urban sites, with the exception of PM10–2.5 sea salt (factor of up to 2), which may be influenced by traffic-induced resuspension of sea and/or road salt. Heavy-duty vehicles appeared to have a larger effect than passenger vehicles on the concentrations of all elements influenced by resuspension (including sea salt) and wearing processes. Trace element concentrations in London were influenced by both local and regional sources, with coarse and intermediate fractions dominated by traffic-induced resuspension and wearing processes and fine particles influenced by regional transport.

Glacial lake drainage in Patagonia (13-8 kyr) and response of the adjacent Pacific Ocean

Large freshwater lakes formed in North America and Europe during deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum. Rapid drainage of these lakes into the Oceans resulted in abrupt perturbations in climate, including the Younger Dryas and 8.2 kyr cooling events. In the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere major glacial lakes also formed and drained during deglaciation but little is known about the magnitude, organization and timing of these drainage events and their e ect on regional climate. We use 16 new single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates to de ne three stages of rapid glacial lake drainage in the Lago General Carrera/Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Cohrane/ Pueyrredón basins of Patagonia and provide the rst assessment of the e ects of lake drainage on the Paci c Ocean. Lake drainage occurred between 13 and 8 kyr ago and was initially gradual eastward into the Atlantic, then subsequently reorganized westward into the Paci c as new drainage routes opened up during Patagonian Ice Sheet deglaciation. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments using HadCM3 with an imposed freshwater surface “hosing” to simulate glacial lake drainage suggest that a negative salinity anomaly was advected south around Cape Horn, resulting in brief but signi cant impacts on coastal ocean vertical mixing and regional climate.

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of Sao Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating The Sources Of Fresh Water Affecting The Hydrological Balance Of Lakes Enriquillo And Azuei (Hispaniola) – Data Analysis

The Enriquillo and Azuei are saltwater lakes located in a closed water basin in the southwestern region of the island of La Hispaniola, these have been experiencing dramatic changes in total lake-surface area coverage during the period 1980-2012. The size of Lake Enriquillo presented a surface area of approximately 276 km2 in 1984, gradually decreasing to 172 km2 in 1996. The surface area of the lake reached its lowest point in the satellite observation record in 2004, at 165 km2. Then the recent growth of the lake began reaching its 1984 size by 2006. Based on surface area measurement for June and July 2013, Lake Enriquillo has a surface area of ~358 km2. Sumatra sizes at both ends of the record are 116 km2 in 1984 and 134 km2in 2013, an overall 15.8% increase in 30 years. Determining the causes of lake surface area changes is of extreme importance due to its environmental, social, and economic impacts. The overall goal of this study is to quantify the changing water balance in these lakes and their catchment area using satellite and ground observations and a regional atmospheric-hydrologic modeling approach. Data analyses of environmental variables in the region reflect a hydrological unbalance of the lakes due to changing regional hydro-climatic conditions. Historical data show precipitation, land surface temperature and humidity, and sea surface temperature (SST), increasing over region during the past decades. Salinity levels have also been decreasing by more than 30% from previously reported baseline levels. Here we present a summary of the historical data obtained, new sensors deployed in the sourrounding sierras and the lakes, and the integrated modeling exercises. As well as the challenges of gathering, storing, sharing, and analyzing this large volumen of data in a remote location from such a diverse number of sources.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

Histórias e relatos sobre Pipa: a praia internacional do Rio Grande do Norte

The overwhelming gear that boosted tourism as the main economic activity of Pipa a district formerly agricultural and fishery, that belongs to the municipality of Tibau do Sul/RN produced significant changes in the social, economic and cultural rights of the native population of the place where social relations were narrow and justified in some cases, the line of kinship in an environment where all residents knew each other. However, we can not observe the emergence of this activity just as voracious disarticulator of old local forms of sociability that in a linear process, destroys the old, replacing it with the new. New compositions are generated by merging elements of past and present. Overcoming opposition to simplistic positive or negative impacts of tourism sought especially in this dissertation, review the history of Pipa (told in narrative form), showing how slowly this district has become a major international tourist destination and how its residents were being swallowed by the "whirlwind" that led to this reality. The research used qualitative methodology and was based on photographic, literature and survey, observation, experience, oral and written reports acquired in the field. We conducted in-depth interviews (oral history) with subjects that are the living memory of the place local residents (mostly natives). We found that before the process of "modernization" resulting from the pressure of globalization itself and the capital investment in tourism resulting from the native population is not passive. On the contrary, natives resist, creating mechanisms of material and symbolic reformulations. The present moment is always dynamic. Because of that, the identity of a place is not the crystallization of its past. Many landscapes still reveal materialities of yesteryear, such as registration of social practices in the construction of the place

Efeitos do ethephon sobre a produção da uva 'Niagara Rosada' (Vitis labrusca L.), produzida na entressafra na região de Jales-SP

A produção de 'Niagara Rosada' na entressafra, embora sendo uma excelente opção para os viticultores de Jales-SP, é problemática devido à dificuldade de emissão e desenvolvimento das brotações após a poda, realizada nos meses de ocorrência de temperaturas inferiores a 10ºC, o que tem causado pequenas produções e desestímulo entre os viticultores. Visando a solucionar este problema, foram conduzidos seis experimentos nos anos de 2001 e 2002, cujo objetivo foi verificar o efeito do ethephon aplicado antes da poda sobre o número de cachos, a produção e a qualidade da uva. Foram testadas as doses 0; 3; 6 e 9L.ha-1 de ethephon aplicado via foliar. Concluiu-se que o uso de ethephon proporcionou aumento do número de cachos e da produtividade de 'Niagara Rosada', especialmente quando da ocorrência de condições climáticas desfavoráveis e com satisfatório grau de enfolhamento. A utilização de ethephon na dose de 9L.ha-1 proporcionou aumento da produtividade da uva 'Niagara Rosada' na entressafra.

Availability of soil water under tillage systems, mulch management and citrus rootstocks

The increased availability of soil water is important for the management of non-irrigated orange orchards. The objective of this study was to evaluate the availability of soil water in a Haplorthox (Rhodic Ferralsol) under different tillage systems used for orchard plantation, mulch management and rootstocks in a "Pera" orange orchard in northwest Parana, Brazil. An experiment in a split-split-plot design was established in 2002, in an area cultivated with Brachiaria brizantha grass in which three tillage systems (no tillage, conventional tillage and strip-tillage) were used for orchard plantation. This grass was mowed twice a year between the rows, representing two mulch managements in the split plots (no mulching and mulching in the plant rows). The split-split-plots were represented by two rootstocks ("Rangpur" lime and "Cleopatra" mandarin). The soil water content in the plant rows was evaluated in the 0-20 cm layer in 2007 and at 0-20 and 20-40 cm in 2008-2009. The effect of soil tillage systems prior to implantation of orange orchards on soil water availability was less pronounced than mulching and the rootstocks. The soil water availability was lower when "Pera" orange trees were grafted on "Cleopatra" mandarin than on "Rangpur" lime rootstocks. Mulching had a positive influence on soil water availability in the sandy surface layer (020 cm) and sandy clay loam subsurface (20-40 cm) of the soil in the spring. The production of B. brizantha between the rows and residue disposal in the plant rows as mulch increased water availability to the "Pera" orange trees.

Integration of a regional GPS network within ITRF using precise point positioning

GPS precise point positioning (PPP) can provide high precision 3-D coordinates. Combined pseudorange and carrier phase observables, precise ephemeris and satellite clock corrections, together with data from dual frequency receivers, are the key factors for providing such levels of precision (few centimeters). In general, results obtained from PPP are referenced to an arbitrary reference frame, realized from a previous free network adjustment, in which satellite state vectors, station coordinates and other biases are estimated together. In order to obtain consistent results, the coordinates have to be transformed to the relevant reference frame and the appropriate daily transformation parameters must be available. Furthermore, the coordinates have to be mapped to a chosen reference epoch. If a velocity field is not available, an appropriated model, such as NNR-NUVEL-IA, has to be used. The quality of the results provided by this approach was evaluated using data from the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of the Global Positioning System (RBMC), which was processed using GIPSY-OASIS 11 software. The results obtained were compared to SIRGAS 1995.4 and ITRF2000, and reached precision better than 2cm. A description of the fundamentals of the PPP approach and its application in the integration of regional GPS networks with ITRF is the main purpose of this paper.

Atuação e interação de stakeholders no processo de implantação do turismo: um estudo no município de Sitio Novo/RN

The present work is a study which deals about the stakeholder approach towards the issue of tourism development in a city of Rio Grande do Norte state: Sítio Novo. As a goal, we sought to understand the stakeholders action and interaction mechanisms in the implementation process and, consequently, tourism planning in the municipality. Regarding to the methodology, the study is characterized as an exploratory and descriptive research with a qualitative approach, given the intention of trying to understand meanings and situational characteristics presented by the research subjects. The interview was the instrument used to collect information, and it was performed with 10 (ten) actors of tourism in the municipality, documents about tourism development (Proceedings of the Regional Council of Polo Agreste Trairi were analyzed Sítio Novo municipality incorporates the Polo, and the Strategic Plan for Tourism). The study shows that public actors are the majority in the destination, notes that there is a minimal involvement of civil society in actions for tourism in the municipality, highlights that representatives of the municipality participate effectively in meetings of the Regional Council of Tourism Polo Agreste Trairi, to discuss actions related to the development of the activity in the locality, and attests that local actors interviewed, mostly understand their functions regarding to tourism development, however, do not perform actions consistent with the role they have, which have as purpose the planning and development of tourism. For that matter, this paper concludes that the participation and coordination among the stakeholders of the municipality should be reconsidered in order to seek and/or propose alternatives that gather in a more adequate way the local actors, so that something more effective about the tourism development in the destination could be done