Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in model results. We identify and discuss five areas of enquiry that are of high importance for species distribution modelling: (1) clarification of the niche concept; (2) improved designs for sampling data for building models; (3) improved parameterization; (4) improved model selection and predictor contribution; and (5) improved model evaluation. The challenges discussed in this essay do not preclude the need for developments of other areas of research in this field. However, they are critical for allowing the science of species distribution modelling to move forward.

Neotropical woodlice (isopoda) colonizing leaf-litter of pioneer plants in a coal residue disposal environment

The irregular disposal of coal combustion residues has adverse impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Pioneer plants and soil invertebrates play an important role in the recovery of these areas. The goal of this study was to investigate the colonization patterns of terrestrial isopods (Oniscidea) in leaf litter of three spontaneous pioneer plants (grass - Poaceae, shrub - Euphorbiaceae, tree - Anarcadiaceae) at sites used for fly ash or boiler slag disposal. The experiment consisted of eight blocks (four per disposal site) of 12 litter bags each (four per plant species) that were randomly removed after 6, 35, 70 or 140 days of field exposure. Three isopod species were found in the litter bags: Atlantoscia floridana (van Name, 1940) (Philosciidae; n = 116), Benthana taeniata Araujo & Buckup, 1994 (Philosciidae; n = 817) and Balloniscus sellowii (Brandt, 1833) (Balloniscidae; n = 48). The isopods colonized the three leaf-litter species equally during the exposure period. However, the pattern of leaf-litter colonization by these species suggests a conflict of objectives between high quality food and shelter availability. The occurrence of A. floridana and the abundance and fecundity of B. taeniata were influenced by the residue type, indicating that the isopods have different degrees of tolerance to the characteristics of the studied sites. Considering that terrestrial isopods are abundant detritivores and stimulate the humus-forming processes, it is suggested that they could have an indirect influence on the soil restoration of this area.

Optimal growth strategies when mortality and production rates are size-dependent

Pontryagin's maximum principle from optimal control theory is used to find the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction when lifespan may be finite and the trade-off between growth and reproduction is linear. Analyses of the optimal allocation problem to date have generally yielded bang-bang solutions, i.e. determinate growth: life-histories in which growth is followed by reproduction, with no intermediate phase of simultaneous reproduction and growth. Here we show that an intermediate strategy (indeterminate growth) can be selected for if the rates of production and mortality either both increase or both decrease with increasing body size, this arises as a singular solution to the problem. Our conclusion is that indeterminate growth is optimal in more cases than was previously realized. The relevance of our results to natural situations is discussed.

Gauge transformations in the Lagrangian and Hamilton formalisms of generally covariant theories

We study spacetime diffeomorphisms in the Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formalisms of generally covariant systems. We show that the gauge group for such a system is characterized by having generators which are projectable under the Legendre map. The gauge group is found to be much larger than the original group of spacetime diffeomorphisms, since its generators must depend on the lapse function and shift vector of the spacetime metric in a given coordinate patch. Our results are generalizations of earlier results by Salisbury and Sundermeyer. They arise in a natural way from using the requirement of equivalence between Lagrangian and Hamiltonian formulations of the system, and they are new in that the symmetries are realized on the full set of phase space variables. The generators are displayed explicitly and are applied to the relativistic string and to general relativity.

D-String on near horizon geometries and infinite conformal symmetry

We show that the symmetries of effective D-string actions in constant dilaton backgrounds are directly related to homothetic motions of the background metric. In the presence of such motions, there are infinitely many nonlinearly realized rigid symmetries forming a loop (or looplike) algebra. Near horizon (antideSitter) D3 and D1+D5 backgrounds are discussed in detail and shown to provide 2D interacting field theories with infinite conformal symmetry.

Induction of a geochemical barrier for As, Fe and S immobilization in a sulfide substrate

Acid mine drainage (AMD) is an environmental concern due to the risk of element mobilization, including toxic elements, and inclusion in the food chain. In this study, three cover layers were tested to minimize As, Fe and S mobilization from a substrate from former gold mining, containing pyrite and arsenopyrite. For this purpose, different layers (capillary break, sealant and cover layer) above the substrate and the induction of a geochemical barrier (GB) were used to provide suitable conditions for adsorption and co-precipitation of the mobilized As. Thirteen treatments were established to evaluate the leaching of As, Fe and S from a substrate in lysimeters. The pH, As, Fe, S, Na, and K concentrations and total volume of the leachates were determined. Mineralogical analyses were realized in the substrate at the end of the experimental period. Lowest amounts of As, Fe and S (average values of 5.47, 48.59 and 132.89 g/lysimeter) were leached in the treatments that received Na and K to induce GB formation. Mineralogical analyses indicated jarosite formation in the control treatment and in treatments that received Na and K salts. However, the jarosite amounts in these treatments were higher than in the control, suggesting that these salts accelerated the GB formation. High amounts of As, Fe and S (average values of 11.7, 103.94 and 201.13 g/lysimeter) were observed in the leachate from treatments without capillary break layer. The formation of geochemical barrier and the use of different layers over the sulfide substrate proved to be efficient techniques to decrease As, Fe and S mobilization and mitigate the impact of acid mine drainage.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Ordered structures in rotating ultracold Bose gases

Two-dimentional systems of trapped samples of few cold bosonic atoms submitted to strong rotation around the perpendicular axis may be realized in optical lattices and microtraps. We investigate theoretically the evolution of ground state structures of such systems as the rotational frequency Omega increases. Various kinds of ordered structures are observed. In some cases, hidden interference patterns exhibit themselves only in the pair correlation function; in some other cases explicit broken-symmetry structures appear that modulate the density. For N < 10 atoms, the standard scenario, valid for large sytems is absent, and is only gradually recovered as N increases. On the one hand, the Laughlin state in the strong rotational regime contains ordered structures much more similar to a Wigner molecule than to a fermionic quantum liquid. On the other hand, in the weak rotational regime, the possibility to obtain equilibrium states, whose density reveals an array of vortices, is restricted to the vicinity of some critical values of the rotational frequency Omega.

Carotid sparing in definitive irradiation of T1N0 squamous cell larnyx cancer using helical tomotherapy

Objective: To implement a carotid sparing protocol using helical Tomotherapy(HT) in T1N0 squamous-cell laryngeal carcinoma.Materials/Methods: Between July and August 2010, 7 men with stage T1N0 laryngeal carcinoma were included in this study. Age ranged from 47-74 years. Staging included endoscopic examination, CT-scan and MRI when indicated.Planned irradiation dose was 70 Gy in 35 fractions over 7 weeks. A simple treatment planning algorithm for carotidsparing was used: maximum point dose to the carotids 35 Gy, to the spinal cord 30 Gy, and 100% PTV volume to becovered with 95% of the prescribed dose. Carotid volume of interest extended to 1 cm above and below of the PTV.Doses to the carotid arteries, critical organs, and planned target volume (PTV) with our standard laryngealirradiation protocol was compared. Daily megavoltage scans were obtained before each fraction. When necessary, thePlanned Adaptive? software (TomoTherapy Inc., Madison, WI) was used to evaluate the need for a re-planning,which has never been indicated. Dose data were extracted using the VelocityAI software (Atlanta, GA), and datanormalization and dosevolume histogram (DVH) interpolation were realized using the Igor Pro software (Portland,OR).Results: A significant (p < 0.05) carotid dose sparing compared to our standard protocol with an average maximum point dose of 38.3 Gy (standard devaition [SD] 4.05 Gy), average mean dose of 18.59 Gy (SD 0.83 Gy) was achieved.In all patients, 95% of the carotid volume received less than 28.4 Gy (SD 0.98 Gy). The average maximum point doseto the spinal cord was 25.8 Gy (SD 3.24 Gy). PTV was fully covered with more than 95% of the prescribed dose forall patients with an average maximum point dose of 74.1 Gy and the absolute maximum dose in a single patient of75.2 Gy. To date, the clinical outcomes have been excellent. Three patients (42%) developed stage 1 mucositis that was conservatively managed, and all the patients presented a mild to moderate dysphonia. All adverse effectsresolved spontaneously in the month following the end of treatment. Early local control rate is 100% considering a 4-5months post treatment follow-up.Conclusions: HT allows a clinically significant decrease of carotid irradiation dose compared tostandard irradiation protocols with an acceptable spinal cord dose tradeoff. Moreover, this technique allows the PTV to be homogenously covered with a curative irradiation dose. Daily control imaging brings added security marginsespecially when working with high dose gradients. Further investigations and follow-up are underway to better evaluatethe late clinical outcomes especially the local control rate, late laryngeal and vascular toxicity, and expected potentialimpact on cerebrovascular events.

Origin-related, environmental, sex, and age determinants of immunocompetence, susceptibility to ectoparasites, and disease symptoms in the barn owl

Knowledge of the role of origin-related, environmental, sex, and age factors on host defence mechanisms is important to understand variation in parasite intensity. Because alternative components of parasite defence may be differently sensitive to various factors, they may not necessarily covary. Many components should therefore be considered to tackle the evolution of host-parasite interactions. In a population of barn owls (Tyto alba), we investigated the role of origin-related, environmental (i.e. year, season, nest of rearing, and body condition), sex, and age factors on 12 traits linked to immune responses [humoral immune responses towards sheep red blood cells (SRBC), human serum albumin (HSA) and toxoid toxin TT, T-cell mediated immune response towards the mitogen phytohemagglutinin (PHA)], susceptibility to ectoparasites (number and fecundity of Carnus haemapterus, number of Ixodes ricinus), and disease symptoms (size of the bursa of Fabricius and spleen, proportion of proteins that are immunoglobulins, haematocrit and blood concentration in leucocytes). Cross-fostering experiments allowed us to detect a heritable component of variation in only four out of nine immune and parasitic parameters (i.e. SRBC- and HSA-responses, haematocrit, and number of C. haemapterus). However, because nestlings were not always cross-fostered just after hatching, the finding that 44% of the immune and parasitic parameters were heritable is probably an overestimation. These experiments also showed that five out of these nine parameters were sensitive to the nest environment (i.e. SRBC- and PHA-responses, number of C. haemapterus, haematocrit and blood concentration in leucocytes). Female nestlings were more infested by the blood-sucking fly C. haemapterus than their male nestmates, and their blood was less concentrated in leucocytes. The effect of year, season, age (i.e. reflecting the degree of maturation of the immune system), brood size, position in the within-brood age hierarchy, and body mass strongly differed between the 12 parameters. Different components of host defence mechanisms are therefore not equally heritable and sensitive to environmental, sex, and age factors, potentially explaining why most of these components did not covary.

Nonlinear filtering in object and Fourier space in a joint transform optical correlator: comparison and experimental realization

The use of different kinds of nonlinear filtering in a joint transform correlator are studied and compared. The study is divided into two parts, one corresponding to object space and the second to the Fourier domain of the joint power spectrum. In the first part, phase and inverse filters are computed; their inverse Fourier transforms are also computed, thereby becoming the reference in the object space. In the Fourier space, the binarization of the power spectrum is realized and compared with a new procedure for removing the spatial envelope. All cases are simulated and experimentally implemented by a compact joint transform correlator.

Mental Health Institute Task Force, December 2009

The Department shall staff a task force to be appointed by the governor consisting of knowledgeable citizen to perform an in-depth review of the four state mental health institutes, services provided, public benefits of the services provided, economic effects connected to the presence of the institutes that are realized by the communities in the areas served and the families of personnel and other public costs and benefits associated with the presence and availability of the four institutes. the review shall be coordinated with the proposal to be developed by the department under this section and shall submit a report providing findings and recommendations to the governor and general assembly on or before December, 15. 2009

Supersymmetric black rings and three-charge supertubes

We present supergravity solutions for 1/8-supersymmetric black supertubes with three charges and three dipoles. Their reduction to five dimensions yields supersymmetric black rings with regular horizons and two independent angular momenta. The general solution contains seven independent parameters and provides the first example of nonuniqueness of supersymmetric black holes. In ten dimensions, the solutions can be realized as D1-D5-P black supertubes. We also present a worldvolume construction of a supertube that exhibits three dipoles explicitly. This description allows an arbitrary cross section but captures only one of the angular momenta.

MORM--a Petri net based model for assessing OH&S risks in industrial processes: modeling qualitative aspects.

Because of the increase in workplace automation and the diversification of industrial processes, workplaces have become more and more complex. The classical approaches used to address workplace hazard concerns, such as checklists or sequence models, are, therefore, of limited use in such complex systems. Moreover, because of the multifaceted nature of workplaces, the use of single-oriented methods, such as AEA (man oriented), FMEA (system oriented), or HAZOP (process oriented), is not satisfactory. The use of a dynamic modeling approach in order to allow multiple-oriented analyses may constitute an alternative to overcome this limitation. The qualitative modeling aspects of the MORM (man-machine occupational risk modeling) model are discussed in this article. The model, realized on an object-oriented Petri net tool (CO-OPN), has been developed to simulate and analyze industrial processes in an OH&S perspective. The industrial process is modeled as a set of interconnected subnets (state spaces), which describe its constitutive machines. Process-related factors are introduced, in an explicit way, through machine interconnections and flow properties. While man-machine interactions are modeled as triggering events for the state spaces of the machines, the CREAM cognitive behavior model is used in order to establish the relevant triggering events. In the CO-OPN formalism, the model is expressed as a set of interconnected CO-OPN objects defined over data types expressing the measure attached to the flow of entities transiting through the machines. Constraints on the measures assigned to these entities are used to determine the state changes in each machine. Interconnecting machines implies the composition of such flow and consequently the interconnection of the measure constraints. This is reflected by the construction of constraint enrichment hierarchies, which can be used for simulation and analysis optimization in a clear mathematical framework. The use of Petri nets to perform multiple-oriented analysis opens perspectives in the field of industrial risk management. It may significantly reduce the duration of the assessment process. But, most of all, it opens perspectives in the field of risk comparisons and integrated risk management. Moreover, because of the generic nature of the model and tool used, the same concepts and patterns may be used to model a wide range of systems and application fields.