Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Panel Data on G7 Countries

Using the theoretical framework of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), we perform an empirical investigation on how widespread is the predictability of cay {a modi ed consumption-wealth ratio { once we consider a set of important countries from a global perspective. We chose to work with the set of G7 countries, which represent more than 64% of net global wealth and 46% of global GDP at market exchange rates. We evaluate the forecasting performance of cay using a panel-data approach, since applying cointegration and other time-series techniques is now standard practice in the panel-data literature. Hence, we generalize Lettau and Ludvigson's tests for a panel of important countries. We employ macroeconomic and nancial quarterly data for the group of G7 countries, forming an unbalanced panel. For most countries, data is available from the early 1990s until 2014Q1, but for the U.S. economy it is available from 1981Q1 through 2014Q1. Results of an exhaustive empirical investigation are overwhelmingly in favor of the predictive power of cay in forecasting future stock returns and excess returns.

Análise do alongamento das carteiras dos fundos de previdência complementar aberta

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar as durações das carteiras de renda fixa dos fundos previdenciários, que são paradoxalmente curtas em relação aos objetivos de longo prazo inerentes à previdência, e os eventuais efeitos dos incentivos de permanência existentes nos planos coletivos instituídos, como o custeio do instituidor e regras de desligamento – vesting – no alongamento dessas carteiras. Como forma de sobrepujar as dificuldades da observação direta dos prazos de alongamento das carteiras dos fundos analisados, foi proposto um índice de alongamento calcado na Análise de Estilo Baseada nos Retornos desenvolvida por SHARPE (1992) empregando-se as componentes principais dos Índices de Duração Constante da Anbima (IDkA) para a avaliação da sensibilidade dos retornos mensais dos fundos analisados às curvas de juros real e nominal. Os resultados obtidos não mostram evidências de que os fundos que recebem recursos exclusivamente de planos instituídos apresentem duração maior do que daqueles que recebem recursos de planos individuais e coletivos averbados. Por outro lado, os fundos classificados como “Previdência Data Alvo” pela Anbima destacam-se por apresentar índices de alongamento maiores frente à média dos fundos classificados como “Previdência Renda Fixa” ou “Previdência Balanceado” e correlação positiva entre seus índices de alongamento e Ano Alvo do fundo, o que sugere que políticas que trabalhem o conjunto de informação dos agentes, investidores e gestores, são capazes de modificar a alocação dos investimentos. Basta informação para melhorar a alocação.

The distortion of currencies misalignments on trade Instruments: or why currencies wars are not over

The negotiations of mega agreements between the US and the Pacific countries (TPP) and between the US and the EU (TTIP) are raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. TPP and TTIP are proclaimed to be the designers of the rules for the XXI Century. Old trade instruments such as tariffs are said to be no more important for TTIP because tariffs are negligible among those partners but significant to for TPP. Another relevant agreement in negotiation is between the EU and Mercosul, where tariffs are the most important issue in discussion. The main purpose of this paper is to shows that tariff are important for all these agreements, not because of its nominal value, but because the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs are so significant that all concessions can be distorted by overvalued and by devaluated currencies. The article is divided into several sections: the first gives an introduction to the issue; the second explains the methodologies used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents some results for Brazil, US and China; the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication” and examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a basket of currencies (a virtual currency of the World) and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The fifth presents some estimates for the main PTAs. The conclusions are present in the last section

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements

Europe’s financial crisis: the Euro’s flawed design and the consequences of lack of a government banker

This paper argues the euro zone requires a government banker that manages the bond market and helps finance country budget deficits. The euro solved Europe’s problem of exchange rate speculation by creating a unified currency managed by a single central bank, but in doing so it replaced the exchange rate speculation problem with bond market speculation. Remedying this requires a central bank that acts as government banker and maintains bond interest rates at sustainable levels. Because the euro is a monetary union, this must be done in a way that both avoids favoring individual countries and avoids creating incentives for irresponsible country fiscal policy that leads to “bail-outs”. The paper argues this can be accomplished via a European Public Finance Authority (EPFA) that issues public debt which the European Central Bank (ECB) is allowed to trade. The debate over the euro’s financial architecture has significant political implications. The current neoliberal inspired architecture, which imposes a complete separation between the central bank and public finances, puts governments under continuous financial pressures. That will make it difficult to maintain the European social democratic welfare state. This gives a political reason for reforming the euro and creating an EPFA that supplements the economic case for reform.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Soil Solution as Affected by Plant Residues and Nitrogen Rates

Cation mobility in acidic soils with low organic-matter contents depends not only on sorption intensity but also on the solubility of the species present in soil solution. In general, the following leaching gradient is observed: potassium (K+) magnesium (Mg2+) calcium (Ca2+) aluminum (Al3+). To minimize nutrient losses and ameliorate the subsoil, soil solution must be changed, favoring higher mobility of M2+ (metal ions) forms. This would be theoretically possible if plant residues were kept on the soil surface. An experiment was conducted in pots containing a Distroferric Red Latosol, with soil solution extractors installed at two depths. Pearl millet, black oat, and oilseed radish residues were laid on the soil surface, and nitrogen (as ammonium nitrate) was applied at rates ranging from 0 to 150mgkg-1. Corn was grown for 52 days. Except for K+ and ammonium (NH4 +), nitrogen rates and plant residues had little effect upon the concentrations and forms of the elements in the soil solution. Presence of cover crop residues on soil surface decreased the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on Ca leaching. More than 90% of the Ca2+, Mg2+, and K+ were found as free ions. The Al3+ was almost totally complexed as Al(OH3)0. Nitrogen application increased the concentrations of almost all the ions in soil solution, including Al3+, although there was no modification in the leaching gradient.

Growth Regulation and Other Secondary Effects of Herbicides

As all herbicides act on pathways or processes crucial to plants, in an inhibitory or stimulatory way, low doses of any herbicide might be used to beneficially modulate plant growth, development, or composition. Glyphosate, the most used herbicide in the world, is widely applied at low rates to ripen sugarcane. Low rates of glyphosate also can stimulate plant growth (this effect is called hormesis). When applied at recommended rates for weed control, glyphosate can inhibit rust diseases in glyphosate-resistant wheat and soybean. Fluridone blocks carotenoid biosynthesis by inhibition of phytoene desaturase and is effective in reducing the production of abscisic acid in drought-stressed plants. Among the acetolactate synthase inhibitors, sulfometuron-methyl is widely used to ripen sugarcane and imidazolinones can be used to suppress turf species growth. The application of protoporphyrinogen oxidase inhibitors can trigger plant defenses against pathogens. Glufosinate, a glutamine syntherase inhibitor, is also known to improve the control of plant diseases. Auxin agonists (i.e., dicamba and 2,4-D) are effective, low-cost plant growth regulators. Currently, auxin agonists are still used in tissue cultures to induce somatic embryogenesis and to control fruit ripening, to reduce drop of fruits, to enlarge fruit size, or to extend the harvest period in citrus orchards. At low doses, triazine herbicides stimulate growth through beneficial effects on nitrogen metabolism and through auxin-like effects. Thus, sublethal doses of several herbicides have applications other than weed control.

Understanding the effects of isolation on seed and pollen flow, spatial genetic structure and effective population size of the dioecious tropical tree species Myracrodruon urundeuva

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of chronic acetazolamide administration on gas exchange and acid-base control in pulmonary circulation in exercising horses

P>Reasons for performing study:Carbonic anhydrase (CA) catalyses the hydration/dehydration reaction of CO(2) and increases the rate of Cl- and HCO(3)- exchange between the erythrocytes and plasma. Therefore, chronic inhibition of CA has a potential to attenuate CO(2) output and induce greater metabolic and respiratory acidosis in exercising horses.Objectives:To determine the effects of Carbonic anhydrase inhibition on CO(2) output and ionic exchange between erythrocytes and plasma and their influence on acid-base balance in the pulmonary circulation (across the lung) in exercising horses with and without CA inhibition.Methods:Six horses were exercised to exhaustion on a treadmill without (Con) and with CA inhibition (AczTr). CA inhibition was achieved with administration of acetazolamide (10 mg/kg bwt t.i.d. for 3 days and 30 mg/kg bwt before exercise). Arterial, mixed venous blood and CO(2) output were sampled at rest and during exercise. An integrated physicochemical systems approach was used to describe acid base changes.Results:AczTr decreased the duration of exercise by 45% (P < 0.0001). During the transition from rest to exercise CO(2) output was lower in AczTr (P < 0.0001). Arterial PCO(2) (P < 0.0001; mean +/- s.e. 71 +/- 2 mmHg AczTr, 46 +/- 2 mmHg Con) was higher, whereas hydrogen ion (P = 0.01; 12.8 +/- 0.6 nEq/l AczTr, 15.5 +/- 0.6 nEq/l Con) and bicarbonate (P = 0.007; 5.5 +/- 0.7 mEq/l AczTr, 10.1 +/- 1.3 mEq/l Con) differences across the lung were lower in AczTr compared to Con. No difference was observed in weak electrolytes across the lung. Strong ion difference across the lung was lower in AczTr (P = 0.0003; 4.9 +/- 0.8 mEq AczTr, 7.5 +/- 1.2 mEq Con), which was affected by strong ion changes across the lung with exception of lactate.Conclusions:CO(2) and chloride changes in erythrocytes across the lung seem to be the major contributors to acid-base and ions balance in pulmonary circulation in exercising horses.

Timed artificial insemination in beef cattle using GnRH agonist, PGF2alpha and estradiol benzoate (EB)

The present work evaluated low-cost protocols for timed artificial insemination (TAI) in beef cattle. In Experiment 1, cycling nonlactating Nelore cows (Bos indicus, n=98) were assigned to the following groups: GnRH-PGF (GP) and GnRH-PGF-GnRH (GPG), whereas cycling (n=328, Experiment 2) or anestrus (n = 225, Experiment 3) lactating (L) cows were divided into 3 groups: GP-L, GPG-L and GnRH-PCF-Estradiol benzoate (GPE-L). In Experiment 4, lactating cows (n=201) were separated into 3 groups: GP-L, GPE-L and G 1/2PE-L. Animals from Experiment 1, 3 and 4 were treated (Day 0), at random stages of the estrous cycle, with 8 mug of buserelin acetate (GnRH agonist) intramuscularly (im), whereas in Experiment 2 half of the cows received 8 and the other half 12 mug of GnRH (im). Seven days later (D 7) all animals were treated with 25 mg of dinoprost trometamine (PGF2 alpha, im) except those cows from the G 1/2PE-L group which received only 1/2 dose of PGF2 alpha (12.5 mg) via intravulvo-submucosa (ivsm). Alter PGF2 alpha injection the animals from the control groups (GP and GP-L) were observed twice daily to detect estrus and Al was performed 12 h afterwards. The cows from the other groups received a second GnRH injection (D 8 in GPG-L and d9 in GPG groups) or one injection of estradiol benzoate (EB, 1.0 mg, D 8 in GPE-L group). All cows from GPG and GPG-L or GPE-L groups were AI 20 to 24 or 30 to 34 h, respectively, after the last hormonal injection. Pregnancy was determined by ultrasonography or rectal palpation 30 to 50 days after AI. In the control groups (GP and GP-L) percentage of animals detected in heat (44.5 to 70.3%) and pregnancy rate (20 to 42%) varied according to the number of animals with corpus luteum (CL) at the beginning of treatment. The administration of a second dose of GnRH either 24 (Experiment 2) or 48 h (Experiment 1) after PGF2 alpha resulted in 47.7 and 44.9% pregnancy rates, respectively, after TAI in cycling animals. However, in anestrus cows the GPG treatment induced a much lower pregnancy rate (14.9%) after TAI. The replacement of the second dose of GnRH by EB (GPE-L) resulted in a pregnancy rate (43.3%) comparable to that obtained after GnRH treatment (GPG-L, 47.7%, Experiment 2). Furthermore, the use of 1/2 dose of PGF2 alpha (12.5 mg ivms, Experiment 4) resulted in pregnancy rate (43.5%) similar to that observed with the full dose (im). Both protocols GPG and GPE were effective in synchronizing ovulation in cycling Nelore cows and allowed approximately a 45% pregnancy rate after TAI. Additionally, the GPE treatment is a promising alternative to the use of GPG in timed Al of beef cattle, due to the low cost of EB when compared to GnRH agonists. (C) 2001 by Elsevier B.V.

Human granulocyte colony stimulating factor (hG-CSF): cloning, overexpression, purification and characterization

Background: Biopharmaceutical drugs are mainly recombinant proteins produced by biotechnological tools. The patents of many biopharmaceuticals have expired, and biosimilars are thus currently being developed. Human granulocyte colony stimulating factor (hG-CSF) is a hematopoietic cytokine that acts on cells of the neutrophil lineage causing proliferation and differentiation of committed precursor cells and activation of mature neutrophils. Recombinant hG-CSF has been produced in genetically engineered Escherichia coli ( Filgrastim) and successfully used to treat cancer patients suffering from chemotherapy-induced neutropenia. Filgrastim is a 175 amino acid protein, containing an extra N-terminal methionine, which is needed for expression in E. coli. Here we describe a simple and low-cost process that is amenable to scaling-up for the production and purification of homogeneous and active recombinant hG-CSF expressed in E. coli cells.Results: Here we describe cloning of the human granulocyte colony-stimulating factor coding DNA sequence, protein expression in E. coli BL21(DE3) host cells in the absence of isopropyl-beta-D-thiogalactopyranoside ( IPTG) induction, efficient isolation and solubilization of inclusion bodies by a multi-step washing procedure, and a purification protocol using a single cationic exchange column. Characterization of homogeneous rhG-CSF by size exclusion and reverse phase chromatography showed similar yields to the standard. The immunoassay and N-terminal sequencing confirmed the identity of rhG-CSF. The biological activity assay, in vivo, showed an equivalent biological effect (109.4%) to the standard reference rhG-CSF. The homogeneous rhG-CSF protein yield was 3.2 mg of bioactive protein per liter of cell culture.Conclusion: The recombinant protein expression in the absence of IPTG induction is advantageous since cost is reduced, and the protein purification protocol using a single chromatographic step should reduce cost even further for large scale production. The physicochemical, immunological and biological analyses showed that this protocol can be useful to develop therapeutic bioproducts. In summary, the combination of different experimental strategies presented here allowed an efficient and cost-effective protocol for rhG-CSF production. These data may be of interest to biopharmaceutical companies interested in developing biosimilars and healthcare community.

A ficção científica e o ensino de ciências: o imaginário como formador do real e do racional

Este artigo apresenta uma reflexão sobre a inserção da ficção científica no ensino de Ciências, no qual buscamos identificar como a ficção científica incorpora elementos na estrutura conceitual dos educandos partindo do pressuposto de que teria um papel de desencadeadora e/ou organizadora da aprendizagem. O filme Jurassic Park foi estudado como constitutivo do conhecimento, transmutando o ficcional no real/racional, possibilitando a organização hierárquica dos conceitos, acrescendo novos elementos na estrutura conceitual dos educandos e atuando, também, na mediação do conhecimento - ora organizando, ora desencadeando.

Chemical properties of soils treated with biological sludge from gelatin industry

O impacto dos resíduos orgânicos agroindustriais no ambiente pode ser reduzido com o seu uso agrícola. do ponto de vista da fertilidade do solo, o que se deseja com a aplicação dos resíduos é aumentar o teor de matéria orgânica e fornecer nutrientes para as plantas. Neste trabalho, objetivou-se avaliar o efeito do lodo biológico de indústria de gelatina em atributos químicos de dois Argissolos Vermelho-Amarelos (PVA-arenoso e PVA-textura média) e de um Latossolo Vermelho (LV-argiloso). O experimento foi conduzido por 120 dias em laboratório, em delineamento inteiramente casualizado e esquema fatorial combinando os três solos e seis doses de lodo (0, 100, 200, 300, 400 e 500 m³ ha-1), com três repetições. A aplicação de até 500 m³ ha-1 de lodo diminui a acidez do solo e aumenta a CTC efetiva e a disponibilidade de N, Ca, Mg e P, sem ultrapassar o limite de tolerância para Na. O aumento do teor de bases, maior do que o da CTC efetiva, indica que a maior parte dos cátions adicionados pelo lodo permanece em solução e pode ser perdida por lixiviação.

Melatonin in maturation media fails to improve oocyte maturation, embryo development rates and DNA damage of bovine embryos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)