Development of a food-exchange model to replace saturated fat with MUFAS and n-6 PUFAS in adults at moderate cardiovascular risk

The recommendation to reduce saturated fatty acid (SFA) consumption to ≤10% of total energy (%TE) is a key public health target aimed at lowering cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Replacement of SFA with unsaturated fats may provide greater benefit than replacement with carbohydrates, yet the optimal type of fat is unclear. The aim was to develop a flexible food-exchange model to investigate the effects of substituting SFAs with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or n-6 (ω-6) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) on CVD risk factors. In this parallel study, UK adults aged 21-60 y with moderate CVD risk (50% greater than the population mean) were identified using a risk assessment tool (n = 195; 56% females). Three 16-wk isoenergetic diets of specific fatty acid (FA) composition (%TE SFA:%TE MUFA:%TE n-6 PUFA) were designed using spreads, oils, dairy products, and snacks as follows: 1) SFA-rich diet (17:11:4; n = 65); 2) MUFA-rich diet (9:19:4; n = 64); and 3) n-6 PUFA-rich diet (9:13:10; n = 66). Each diet provided 36%TE total fat. Dietary targets were broadly met for all intervention groups, reaching 17.6 ± 0.4%TE SFA, 18.5 ± 0.3%TE MUFA, and 10.4 ± 0.3%TE n-6 PUFA in the respective diets, with significant overall diet effects for the changes in SFA, MUFA, and n-6 PUFA between groups (P < 0.001). There were no differences in the changes of total fat, protein, carbohydrate, and alcohol intake or anthropometric measures between groups. Plasma phospholipid FA composition showed changes from baseline in the proportions of total SFA, MUFA, and n-6 PUFA for each diet group, with significant overall diet effects for total SFA and MUFA between groups (P < 0.001). In conclusion, successful implementation of the food-exchange model broadly achieved the dietary target intakes for the exchange of SFA with MUFA or n-6 PUFA with minimal disruption to the overall diet in a free-living population. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01478958.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

The risk of water stress

Water resources are under stress in many regions due to increasing demands and, in places, falling quality. Climate change has the potential to change the risks of water stress.1 The focus in this section is on strategic definitions of water stress, which are based on generalized indicators of the amount of water that is available and the demands on that resource. Operational definitions, on the other hand, are typically based on the reliability of the supply of appropriate quality water and are strongly determined by local conditions.

The risk of river flooding

This section of the report outlines the effect of different levels of climate change on exposure to river flood risk, at national and watershed scales.

The risk of drought

This section of the report summarises the effect of different levels of climate change on risk of drought.

Risk of Giardia infection for drinking water and bathing in a peri-urban area in Sao Paulo, Brazil

A high incidence of waterborne diseases is observed worldwide and in order to address contamination problems prior to an outbreak, quantitative microbial risk assessment is a useful tool for estimating the risk of infection. The objective of this paper was to assess the probability of Giardia infection from consuming water from shallow wells in a peri-urban area. Giardia has been described as an important waterborne pathogen and reported in several water sources, including ground waters. Sixteen water samples were collected and examined according to the US EPA (1623, 2005). A Monte Carlo method was used to address the potential risk as described by the exponential dose response model. Giardia cysts occurred in 62.5% of the samples (0.1-36.1 cysts/l). A median risk of 10-1 for the population was estimated and the adult ingestion was the highest risk driver. This study illustrates the vulnerability of shallow well water supply systems in peri-urban areas.

The management of adolescents at risk of suicide by Australian general practitioners: issues in practice and confidence

This study involved an anonymous survey of 41Victorian GPs regarding their diagnostic and treatment practices with adolescent patients with depression and/or suicide ideation. The results indicated that the majority of respondents correctly diagnosed the level of depression and the risk of suicide in a case scenario. Although they commonly asked some of the questions related to an assessment of suicide risk, they rarely conducted a comprehensive risk assessment and the level of referral to telephone and internet crisis services was poor. Most GPs indicated a lack of confidence in their ability to detect and manage depression and suicide in this population and strongly emphasized a need for more training.

Is the risk of illness through consuming vegetables irrigated with reclaimed wastewater different for different population groups?

The use of reclaimed wastewater for irrigation of horticultural crops is commonplace in many parts of the world and is likely to increase. Concerns about risks to human health arising from such practice, especially with respect to infection with microbial pathogens, are common. Several factors need to be considered when attempting to quantify the risk posed to a population, such as the concentration of pathogens in the source water, water treatment efficiency, the volume of water coming into contact with the crop, and the die-off rate of pathogens in the environment. Another factor, which has received relatively less attention, is the amount of food consumed. Plainly, higher consumption rates place one at greater risk of becoming infected. The amount of vegetables consumed is known to vary among ethic groups. We use Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Modelling (QMRA) to see if certain ethnic groups are exposed to higher risks by virtue of their consumption behaviour. The results suggest that despite the disparities in consumption rates by different ethnic groups they generally all faced comparable levels of risks. We conclude by suggesting that QMRA should be used to assess the relative levels of risk faced by groups based on divisions other than ethnicity, such as those with compromised immune systems.

Pressure injury: an exploration of the relationship between risk factors and interface pressure

Pressure injuries are a serious risk for patients admitted to hospital and are thought to result from a number of forces operating on skin tissue (pressure, shear and friction). Most research on interface pressure (IP) has taken place using healthy volunteers or mannequins. Little is currently known about the relationship between pressure injury risk and IP for hospital patients. This relationship was investigated with a sample of 121 adult hospital patients. Pressure injury risk was evaluated using the Waterlow Risk Assessment Tool (WRAT) and IP was measured at the sacrum using a Tekscan ClinSeatTM IP sensor mat. Other factors considered were body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, reason for hospital admission, comorbidities and admission route to hospital. Patients were classified according to WRAT categories (‘low risk’, ‘at risk’, ‘high risk’, ‘very high risk’) and then remained still on a standard hospital mattress for 10 minutes while IP was measured. Participants in the ‘low risk’ group were significantly younger than all other groups (p<0.001) and there were some group differences in BMI. IP readings were compared between the ‘low risk’ group and all of the participants at greater risk. The ‘low risk’ group had significantly lower IP at the sacrum on a standard hospital mattress than those at greater risk (p=0.002). Those at greater risk tended to have IP readings at the low end of the compromised IP range. This study is significant because it describes a new, clinically relevant methodology and presents findings that challenge clinician assumptions about the relationships between pressure injury risk assessment and IP.

Health impact assessment : environmental management vs healthy public policy perspective - exploring the nexus between the two

This paper will explore the links between the traditional role of HIA in an environmental management context and the new and emerging trend internationally to subject government policy to prospective HIA.  The goal of this new iteration of HIA is to develop healthy public policy across all sectors of government creating a more inclusive and evidence-based approach to public policy formation.  The risk-based, health protection approach is more widely understood, as it draws on existing health protection experience and is allied with risk assessment theory.  The new model is based on the health promotion perspective, and emphasizes social determinants of public health.  This latter approach draws on the foundations of the former.  It is vital that the links between the two are therefore considered especially from the perspective of transfer of knowledge between the two.  The paper will explore the similarities, the differences, the tensions and the lessons that can be learned.  It will report on the progress of a national study being conducted by Mary Mahoney and Gillian Durham that is looking at what is happening (or has happened) in other countires including Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom

Risk items associated with patient falls in oncology and medical settings

The aim of this study was to determine whether items on a falls risk-assessment tool, made up of brief cognitive and physical measures that nurses use in practice, differentiated fallers and nonfallers in oncology and medical settings. A measure of leg muscle strength clearly distinguished between fallers and nonfallers, with the latter having stronger leg muscles. For nursing practice, the assessment of patients' muscle strength seems to be the most useful scale for identifying potential fallers.

Knowledge, risk perceptions and condom usage in male sex workers from three Australian cities

The study identifies factors associated with knowledge and perception of risk of HIV/AIDS, as well as attitudes to and usage of condoms by a sample of male sex workers (MSW). One hundred and eighty-five male sex workers completed a self-reported questionnaire, including knowledge about HIV transmission, attitudes to condom use and perceptions and personal susceptibility to HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk, and a two-week diary recording use of condom during commercial sex encounters. The findings reveal that condom use was found in 77.7% of the encounters with clients and the majority of the respondents perceived themselves to be at no risk for HIV because of sex work. Independent sex workers from Melbourne and workers who owned their place of residence used condoms in a significant lower proportion. Generally speaking, knowledge about the risks associated with AIDS was high, with respondents showing lower knowledge about the risks associated with unprotected receptive or active oral sex. Participants held a positive attitude to condom use; most considered the provisions of condoms to be their responsibility rather than clients; and they were more worried about contracting an STI than HIV. Those who scored higher on the knowledge scale had more positive attitudes to condom use and those who had a more positive attitude to condom use recorded a perceived lower risk of contracting STI but not HIV. The study discusses the relevance of these findings for public health risk reduction and sexual health education campaigns.

Fire fighters' assessments of fireground risk

Fire fighters are often required to work in dynamic and hazardous environments involving a high level of uncertainty. The present study investigated 110 volunteer fire fighters’ assessments of levels of risk associated with a photographic depiction of a typical grassland fire situation. The fire fighters used a standard fire agency risk-rating matrix procedure requiring them to specify the severity of the hazards depicted and the probability of a mishap in order to rate overall level of risk (1 = Low; 4 = Extreme). The risk ratings made by the fire fighters varied greatly. The overall rate of agreement with the risk level rating of the situation made by a panel of expert fire officers (=1, Low) was only 27%. It seems that use of a standard risk-rating matrix procedure by fire fighters at incidents, as recommended currently by many fire agencies, is likely to result in unreliable risk assessments, at least in the absence of effective training in the risk assessment procedure. The 110 volunteers were also asked to identify the total number of potential hazards apparent in five photographs depicting different kinds of emergency incidents. Identifying more hazards was found to be associated with (a) previous personal experience of a ‘near-miss’; and (b) higher levels of education. The findings imply that when faced with identical fire ground situations, individual fire fighters are likely to differ in their situational awareness of hazards and consequent risk assessments.

Sculpting fog: attempting to define "acceptable risk" in emergency services.

There is currently no consensus as to how “acceptable risk” should be defined in emergency service response. Attempts to address this have relied upon the assumption that a probabilistic model of risk can be calculated and that acceptable levels of risk can be determined. Examples of this process can be seen in a number of emergency services, e.g. dynamic risk assessment utilised by a number of fire services.

Safeguarding Australia from cyber-terrorism : a proposed cyber-terrorism SCADA risk framework for Australia

Terrorist groups are currently using information and communication technologies (ICTs) to orchestrate their conventional physical attacks. More recently, terrorists have been developing a new form of capability within the cyber-arena to coordinate cyber-based attacks. This paper identifies that cyber-terrorism capabilities are an integral, imperative, yet under-researched component in establishing, and enhancing cyber-terrorism risk assessment models for SCADA systems. This paper is an extension of work previously published by Beggs and
Warren 2008, it presents a high level overview of a cyber-terrorism SCADA risk framework that has been adopted and validated by SCADA industry practitioners. The paper proposes a managerial framework which is designed to measure and protect SCADA systems from the threat of cyber-terrorism within Australia. The findings and results of an industry focus group are presented in support of the developed framework for SCADA industry adoption and acceptance.