Designs for phase I clinical trials with multiple courses of subjects at different doses

The goal of this article is to provide a new design framework and its corresponding estimation for phase I trials. Existing phase I designs assign each subject to one dose level based on responses from previous subjects. Yet it is possible that subjects with neither toxicity nor efficacy responses can be treated at higher dose levels, and their subsequent responses to higher doses will provide more information. In addition, for some trials, it might be possible to obtain multiple responses (repeated measures) from a subject at different dose levels. In this article, a nonparametric estimation method is developed for such studies. We also explore how the designs of multiple doses per subject can be implemented to improve design efficiency. The gain of efficiency from "single dose per subject" to "multiple doses per subject" is evaluated for several scenarios. Our numerical study shows that using "multiple doses per subject" and the proposed estimation method together increases the efficiency substantially.

Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Isotonic designs for phase I trials

The purpose of a phase I trial in cancer is to determine the level (dose) of the treatment under study that has an acceptable level of adverse effects. Although substantial progress has recently been made in this area using parametric approaches, the method that is widely used is based on treating small cohorts of patients at escalating doses until the frequency of toxicities seen at a dose exceeds a predefined tolerable toxicity rate. This method is popular because of its simplicity and freedom from parametric assumptions. In this payer, we consider cases in which it is undesirable to assume a parametric dose-toxicity relationship. We propose a simple model-free approach by modifying the method that is in common use. The approach assumes toxicity is nondecreasing with dose and fits an isotonic regression to accumulated data. At any point in a trial, the dose given is that with estimated toxicity deemed closest to the maximum tolerable toxicity. Simulations indicate that this approach performs substantially better than the commonly used method and it compares favorably with other phase I designs.

Sequential allocation in clinical trials

Suppose two treatments with binary responses are available for patients with some disease and that each patient will receive one of the two treatments. In this paper we consider the interests of patients both within and outside a trial using a Bayesian bandit approach and conclude that equal allocation is not appropriate for either group of patients. It is suggested that Gittins indices should be used (using an approach called dynamic discounting by choosing the discount rate based on the number of future patients in the trial) if the disease is rare, and the least failures rule if the disease is common. Some analytical and simulation results are provided.

The accuracy of varietal selection using factor analytic models for multi-environment plant breeding trials

Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.

Exercise and psychosocial interventions in breast cancer survivors: Preliminary results of a randomized controlled trial

Physical and psychological decline is common in the post-treatment breast cancer population, yet the efficacy of concurrent interventions to meet both physical- psychosocial needs in this population has not been extensively examined. PURPOSE: This study explores the effects of a combined exercise and psychosocial intervention model on selected physiological-psychological parameters in post-treated breast cancer. METHODS: Forty-one breast cancer survivors were randomly assigned to one of four groups for an 8-week intervention: exercise only [EX, n=13] (aerobic and resistance training), psychosocial therapy only [PS, n=11] (biofeedback), combined EX and PS [EX+PS, n=11], or to control conditions [CO, n=6]. Mean delta score (post-intervention - baseline) were calculated for each of the following: body weight, % body fat (skin folds), predicted VO2max (Modified Bruce Protocol), overall dynamic muscular endurance [OME] (RMCRI protocol), static balance (Single leg stance test), dynamic balance (360° turn and 4-square step test), fatigue (Revised Piper Scale), and quality of life (FACT-B). A one-way ANOVA was used to analyze the preliminary results of this on-going randomized trial. RESULTS: Overall, there were significant differences in the delta scores for predicted VO2max, OME, and dynamic balance among the 4 groups (p<0.05). The EX+PS group showed a significant improvement in VO2max compared with the PS group (4.2 ± 3.8 vs. -0.9 ± 4.2 mL/kg/min; p<0.05). Both the EX+PS and EX groups showed significant improvements in OME compared with the PS and CO groups (44.5 ± 23.5 and 43.4 ± 22.1 vs. -3.9 ± 15.2 and 2.7 ± 13.7 repetitions; p<0.05). All 3 intervention groups showed significant improvements in dynamic balance compared with the CO group (-0.8 ± 0.6, -0.6 ± 0.8, and -0.6 ±1.0 vs. 0.6 ± 0.6 seconds; p<0.05). Overall, changes in fatigue tended towards significance among the 4 groups (p = 0.08), with decreased fatigue in the intervention groups and increased fatigue in the CO group. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary findings suggest that EX and PS seem to produce greater positive changes in the outcome measures than CO. However, at this point no definite conclusions can be made on the additive effects of combining the EX and PS interventions.

Assessment of permeable covers for odour reduction in piggery effluent ponds. 1. Laboratory-scale trials

A variety of materials were trialed as supported permeable covers using a series of laboratory-scale anaerobic digesters. Efficacy of cover performance was assessed in terms of impact on odour and greenhouse gas emission rate, and the characteristics of anaerobic liquor. Data were collected over a 12-month period. Initially the covers reduced the rate of odour emission 40-100 times relative to uncovered digesters. After about three months, this decreased to about a threefold reduction in odour emission rate, which was maintained over the remainder of the trial. The covers did not alter methane emission rates. Carbon dioxide emission rates varied according to cover type. Performance of the covers was attributed to the physical characteristics of the cover materials and changes in liquor composition. The reductions in odour emission indicate that these covers offer a cost-effective method for odour control.

Assessment of permeable covers for odour reduction in piggery effluent ponds. 2. Field-scale trials

The efficacy of supported covers was investigated under field conditions using a series of prototypes deployed on an anaerobic pond treating typical piggery waste. Research focused on identifying effective cover support materials and deployment methods, quantifying odour reduction, and estimating the life expectancy of various permeable cover materials. Over a 10-month period, median odour emission rates were five to eight times lower from supported straw cover surfaces and a non-woven, spun fibre polypropylene weed control material than from the adjacent uncovered pond surface. While the straw covers visually appeared to degrade very rapidly, they continued to reduce odour emissions effectively. The polypropylene cover appeared to offer advantages from the perspectives of cost, reduced maintenance and ease of manufacture.

Systematic analysis of changes in cannabis use among participants in control conditions of randomised controlled trials

Introduction Cannabis remains the most used illegal substance across the globe, and negative outcomes and disorders are common. A spotlight therefore falls on reductions in cannabis use in people with cannabis use disorder. Current estimates of unassisted cessation or reduction in cannabis use rely on community surveys, and few studies focus on individuals with disorder. A key interest of services and researchers is to estimate effect size of reductions in consumption among treatment seekers who do not obtain treatment. Effects within waiting list or information-only control conditions of randomised controlled trials offer an opportunity to study this question. Method This paper examines the extent of reductions in days of cannabis use in the control groups of randomised controlled trials on treatment of cannabis use disorders. A systematic literature search was performed to identify trials that reported days of cannabis use in the previous 30 (or equivalent). Results Since all but one of the eight identified studies had delayed treatment controls, results could only be summarised across 2–4 months. Average weighted days of use in the previous 30 days fell from 24.5 to 19.9, and a meta-analysis using a random effects model showed an average reduction of 0.442 SD. However, every study had at least one significant methodological issue. Conclusions While further high-quality data is needed to confirm the observed effects, these results provide a baseline from which researchers and practitioners can estimate the extent of change required to detect effects of cannabis treatments in services or treatment trials.

The acceptability, usability and short-term outcomes of Get Real: A web-based program for psychotic-like experiences (PLEs)

Background Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are subclinical delusional ideas and perceptual disturbances that have been associated with a range of adverse mental health outcomes. This study reports a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the acceptability, usability and short term outcomes of Get Real, a web program for PLEs in young people. Methods Participants were twelve respondents to an online survey, who reported at least one PLE in the previous 3 months, and were currently distressed. Ratings of the program were collected after participants trialled it for a month. Individual semi-structured interviews then elicited qualitative feedback, which was analyzed using Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR) methodology. PLEs and distress were reassessed at 3 months post-baseline. Results User ratings supported the program's acceptability, usability and perceived utility. Significant reductions in the number, frequency and severity of PLE-related distress were found at 3 months follow-up. The CQR analysis identified four qualitative domains: initial and current understandings of PLEs, responses to the program, and context of its use. Initial understanding involved emotional reactions, avoidance or minimization, limited coping skills and non-psychotic attributions. After using the program, participants saw PLEs as normal and common, had greater self-awareness and understanding of stress, and reported increased capacity to cope and accept experiences. Positive responses to the program focused on its normalization of PLEs, usefulness of its strategies, self-monitoring of mood, and information putting PLEs into perspective. Some respondents wanted more specific and individualized information, thought the program would be more useful for other audiences, or doubted its effectiveness. The program was mostly used in low-stress situations. Conclusions The current study provided initial support for the acceptability, utility and positive short-term outcomes of Get Real. The program now requires efficacy testing in randomized controlled trials.

"On-the-go" NIT technology to assess protein and moisture during harvest of wheat breeding trials.

In this study, we investigated the application of “on-the-go” assessment of wheat protein and moisture under a breeding trial situation.

Immunomodulatory effects of probiotic bacteria in healthy adults

Probiooteilla kantakohtaisia vaikutuksia ihmisen immuunijärjestelmään terveillä aikuisilla Probiooteilla on kantakohtaisia tulehduksen välittäjäaineita vähentäviä vaikutuksia ja probioottien yhdistelmien vaikutukset eroavat yksittäisten kantojen vaikutuksista selviää TtM Riina Kekkosen tuoreesta väitöstutkimuksesta. TtM Riina Kekkonen on selvittänyt väitöskirjassaan eri probioottikantojen vaikutuksia immuunivasteeseen valkosolumallissa sekä terveillä aikuisilla lumekontrolloiduissa kliinisissä tutkimuksissa. Aikaisemmin probioottien vaikutuksia on tutkittu lähinnä allergian ja erilaisten vatsavaivojen ehkäisyssä ja hoidossa. Probiootteja sisältäviä tuotteita käyttävät kuluttajat ovat kuitenkin useimmiten terveitä aikuisia, ja probioottien vaikutus terveiden aikuisten immuunijärjestelmään on ollut puutteellisesti selvitettyä. Valkosolumallissa probioottikantojen havaittiin poikkeavan toisistaan niiden kyvyssä aktivoida immuunivasteen välittäjäaineiden, sytokiinien, tuotantoa. Anti-inflammatorisia, eli tulehdusta lievittäviä vaikutuksia nähtiin lähinnä Bifidobacterium ja Propionibacterium sukuihin kuuluvilla kannoilla. Streptococcus ja Leuconostoc sukuihin kuuluvat kannat puolestaan aktivoivat Th1 tyyppistä, soluvälitteistä immuunivastetta. Eri probioottien kombinaatiot eivät saaneet aikaan voimakkaampaa aktivaatiota yksittäisiin kantoihin verrattuna, joka viittaa probioottien keskinäiseen kilpailuun niiden ollessa kontaktissa ihmisen solujen kanssa. Probioottikantojen valinta kliinisiin tutkimuksiin tehtiin niiden anti-inflammatoristen ominaisuuksien perusteella. Parhaita anti-inflammatorisia kantoja olivat B. lactis ssp. animalis Bb12 ja P. freudenreichii ssp. shermanii JS, joiden lisäksi tutkimuksiin valittiin myös L. rhamnosus GG (LGG) hyvin tutkittuna referenssikantana. Solutöiden tulokset eivät olleet täysin verrannollisia kliinisen työn tuloksiin, koska LGG näytti omaavan parhaat anti-inflammatoriset ominaisuudet kliinisissä tutkimuksissa vaikka solutyössä sen aikaansaamat vasteet olivat melko vaimeita. Kolmen viikon kliinisessä tutkimuksessa terveillä aikuisilla LGG alensi mm. tulehdusta kuvaavan C-reaktiivisen proteiinin ja inflammatoristen sytokiinien määrää. Pidemmässä kolmen kuukauden pituisessa kliinisessä tutkimuksessa LGG:llä ei ollut vaikutusta terveiden aikuisten infektiosairastavuuteen, mutta LGG lyhensi vatsavaivojen kestoa. Probioottien vaikutukset immuunijärjestelmään näyttävät olevan kantakohtaisia ja erityisesti Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG:llä havaittiin anti-inflammatorisia vaikutuksia. Valkosolumallia ei tulisi käyttää ainoana probioottikantojen skriinausmenetelmänä niiden immunologisia vaikutuksia selvitettäessä, koska solutöiden tulokset eivät olleet täysin verrannollisia kliinisten tutkimusten tuloksiin. Sen sijaan veren perifeeristen lymfosyyttien eristäminen ja niiden aktivoitumisen selvittäminen lyhytaikaisessa kliinisessä tutkimuksessa voisi toimia suhteellisen helppona skiinausmenetelmänä.

Evidence-based perspective on CP rehabilitation : Reviews on physiotherapy, physiotherapy-related motor-based interventions and orthotic devices

This thesis utilises an evidence-based approach to critically evaluate and summarize effectiveness research on physiotherapy, physiotherapy-related motor-based interventions and orthotic devices in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP). It aims to assess the methodological challenges of the systematic reviews and trials, to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in current use, and to make suggestions for future trials Methods: Systematic reviews were searched from computerized bibliographic databases up to August 2007 for physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions, and up to May 2003 for orthotic devices. Two reviewers independently identified, selected, and assessed the quality of the reviews using the Overview Quality Assessment Questionnaire complemented with decision rules. From a sample of 14 randomized controlled trials (RCT) published between January 1990 and June 2003 we analysed the methods of sampling, recruitment, and comparability of groups; defined the components of a complex intervention; identified outcome measures based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF); analysed the clinical interpretation of score changes; and analysed trial reporting using a modified 33-item CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) checklist. The effectiveness of physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions in children with diagnosed CP was evaluated in a systematic review of randomised controlled trials that were searched from computerized databases from January 1990 up to February 2007. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality, extracted the data, classified the outcomes using the ICF, and considered the level of evidence according to van Tulder et al. (2003). Results: We identified 21 reviews on physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions and five on orthotic devices. These reviews summarized 23 or 5 randomised controlled trials and 104 or 27 observational studies, respectively. Only six reviews were of high quality. These found some evidence supporting strength training, constraint-induced movement therapy or hippotherapy, and insufficient evidence on comprehensive interventions. Based on the original studies included in the reviews on orthotic devices we found some short-term effects of lower limb casting on passive range of movement, and of ankle-foot orthoses on equinus walk. Long term effects of lower limb orthoses have not been studied. Evidence of upper limb casting or orthoses is conflicting. In the sample of 14 RCTs, most trials used simple randomisation, complemented with matching or stratification, but only three specified the concealed allocation. Numerous studies provided sufficient details on the components of a complex intervention, but the overlap of outcome measures across studies was poor and the clinical interpretation of observed score changes was mostly missing. Almost half (48%) of the applicable CONSORT-based items (range 28 32) were reported adequately. Most reporting inadequacies were in outcome measures, sample size determination, details of the sequence generation, allocation concealment and implementation of the randomization, success of assessor blinding, recruitment and follow-up dates, intention-to-treat analysis, precision of the effect size, co-interventions, and adverse events. The systematic review identified 22 trials on eight intervention categories. Four trials were of high quality. Moderate evidence of effectiveness was established for upper extremity treatments on attained goals, active supination and developmental status, and of constraint-induced therapy on the amount and quality of hand use and new emerging behaviours. Moderate evidence of ineffectiveness was found for strength training's effect on walking speed and stride length. Conflicting evidence was found for strength training's effect on gross motor function. For the other intervention categories the evidence was limited due to the low methodological quality and the statistically insignificant results of the studies. Conclusions: The high-quality reviews provide both supportive and insufficient evidence on some physiotherapy interventions. The poor quality of most reviews calls for caution, although most reviews drew no conclusions on effectiveness due to the poor quality of the primary studies. A considerable number of RCTs of good to fair methodological and reporting quality indicate that informative and well-reported RCTs on complex interventions in children and adolescents with CP are feasible. Nevertheless, methodological improvement is needed in certain areas of the trial design and performance, and the trial authors are encouraged to follow the CONSORT criteria. Based on RCTs we established moderate evidence for some effectiveness of upper extremity training. Due to limitations in methodological quality and variations in population, interventions and outcomes, mostly limited evidence on the effectiveness of most physiotherapy interventions is available to guide clinical practice. Well-designed trials are needed, especially for focused physiotherapy interventions.