974 resultados para Rainfall Variability
Resumo:
Increase in sea surface temperature with global warming has an impact on coastal upwelling. Past two decades (1988 to 2007) of satellite observed sea surface temperatures and space borne scatterometer measured winds have provided an insight into the dynamics of coastal upwelling in the southeastern Arabian Sea, in the global warming scenario. These high resolution data products have shown inconsistent variability with a rapid rise in sea surface temperature between 1992 and 1998 and again from 2004 to 2007. The upwelling indices derived from both sea surface temperature and wind have shown that there is an increase in the intensity of upwelling during the period 1998 to 2004 than the previous decade. These indices have been modulated by the extreme climatic events like El–Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole that happened during 1991–92 and 1997–98. A considerable drop in the intensity of upwelling was observed concurrent with these events. Apart from the impact of global warming on the upwelling, the present study also provides an insight into spatial variability of upwelling along the coast. Noticeable fact is that the intensity of offshore Ekman transport off 8oN during the winter monsoon is as high as that during the usual upwelling season in summer monsoon. A drop in the meridional wind speed during the years 2005, 2006 and 2007 has resulted in extreme decrease in upwelling though the zonal wind and the total wind magnitude are a notch higher than the previous years. This decrease in upwelling strength has resulted in reduced productivity too.
Resumo:
Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889–1918 (NP1), 1919–1948 (NP2), 1949–1978 (NP3) and 1979–2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June– September, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889–2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1 mm with a standard deviation of 134.1 mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6 mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2 mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May– October) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during themonth of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During themonth of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November–March) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914– 2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during postmonsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4– 8 years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30–34 years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.
Resumo:
TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) is reported to be a useful sensor to measure the atmospheric and oceanic parameters even in cloudy conditions. Vertically integrated specific humidity, Total Precipitable Water (TPW) retrieved from the water vapour absorption channel (22GHz.) along with 10m wind speed and rain rate derived from TMI is used to investigate the moisture variation over North Indian Ocean. Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISO) of TPW during the summer monsoon seasons 1998, 1999, and 2000 over North Indian Ocean is explored using wavelet analysis. The dominant waves in TPW during the monsoon periods and the differences in ISO over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are investigated. The northward propagation of TPW anomaly and its coherence with the coastal rainfall is also studied. For the diagnostic study of heavy rainfall spells over the west coast, the intrusion of TPW over the North Arabian Sea is seen to be a useful tool.
Resumo:
The Doctoral thesis focuses on the factors that influence the weather and climate over Peninsular Indias. The first chapter provides a general introduction about the climatic features over peninsular India, various factors dealt in subsequent chapters, such as solar forcing on climate, SST variability in the northern Indian Ocean and its influence on Indian monsoon, moisture content of the atmosphere and its importance in the climate system, empirical formulation of regression forecast of climate and some aspects of regional climate modeling. Chapter 2 deals with the variability in the vertically integrated moisture (VIM) over Peninsular India on various time scales. The third Chapter discusses the influence of solar activity in the low frequency variability in the rainfall of Peninsular India. The study also investigates the influence of solar activity on the horizontal and vertical components of wind and the difference in the forcing before and after the so-called regime shift in the climate system before and after mid-1970s.In Chapter 4 on Peninsular Indian Rainfall and its association with meteorological and oceanic parameters over adjoining oceanic region, a linear regression model was developed and tested for the seasonal rainfall prediction of Peninsular India.
Resumo:
This thesis entitled seasonal and interannual variability of sea level and associated surface meteorological parameters at cochin.The interesting aspect of studying sea level variability on different time scales can be attributed to the diversity of its applications.Study of tides could perhaps be the oldest branch of physical oceanography.The thesis is presented in seven chapters. The first chapter gives, apart from a general introduction, a survey of literature on sea level variability on different time scales - tidal, seasonal and interannual (geological scales excluded), with particular emphasis on the work carried out in the Indian waters. The second chapter is devoted to the study of observed tides at Cochin on seasonal and interannual time scales using hourly water level data for the period 1988-1993. The third chapter describes the long-term climatology of some important surface oceanographic and meteorological parameters (at Cochin) which are supposed to affect the sea level. The fourth chapter addresses the problem of seasonal forecasting of the meteorological and oceanographic parameters at Cochin using autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average techniques and testing their accuracy with the observed data for the period 1991-1993. The fifth chapter describes the seasonal cycles of sea level and the driving forces at 16 stations along the Indian subcontinent. It also addresses the observed interannual variability of sea level at 15 stations using available multi-annual data sets. The sixth chapter deals with the problem of coastal trapped waves between Cochin and Beypore off the Kerala coast using sea level and atmospheric pressure data sets for the year 1977. The seventh and the last chapter contains the summary and conclusions and future outlook based on this study.
Resumo:
The intention of the present thesis work is to understand the physical processes responsible for climatic variability and predictability of the Indian subcontinent. The study is expected to delineate and emphasize the various boundaries and areas of transition and bring out the regional and temporal characteristics of the meteorological distribution of the country. The results obtained from the study is expected to provide a better understanding the physics of Indian cl imate, which can be incorporated for numerical weather prediction. The results obtained from the present study can be incorporated for climate modelling and long-term prediction of the meteorological parameters over Indian subcontinent
Resumo:
In the present study, the land use over Kerala State and its spatial and temporal variations, spatio-temporal variations of water budget elements, climatic shifts, incidence of droughts and the influence of inter-annual fluctuations of rainfall on area. production and yield of selected crops, have been studied in detail. The thesis consists of seven chapters including the introduction. The first section of the Second Chapter deals with the importance of agrocliinatological studies in general and its application in agricultural land use in particular. It also gives an overview of the short term climatic fluctuations, water balance studies, crop weather relationships, land use patterns and various agricultural indices. This includes a detailed review of available literature in this field. The basic concepts. data used and the methodology adopted in the study forms, the second section of this Chapter. The Third Chapter gives the details of the physical features of the State such as the relief, geology, geomorphologysoils, drainage, and vegetation. The agroclimatology of the State is discussed in detail in Chapter Four. The first Section presents annual and seasonal variations of temperature and rainfall of the State along with a discussion on the water balance of the State. The secondSection of this Chapter deals with the influence of rainfall and water balance elements on various crops. The district-wise general land use pattern of theState and its spatio-temporal variations are discussed in Chapter Five. The first Section of Chapter Six gives an overview of the agricultural land use pattern of the State, cropping patterns, cropping intensity, crop combination and their spatio-temporal variations. The inter-annual variability of water balances of various stations of the State computed using the method of Thornthwaite (1948) and Thornthwaite & Mather (1955) is presented in the second Section of Chapter Six. This also includes a discussion of how the climatic shifts have occurred over the State and the influence of variations of climatic and water balance elements on the crops. The Seventh Chapter gives the summary of the work carried out and the results obtained from the study. Interpretations of the results, conclusions and suggestions made,based on the observations of the study are incorporated in this Chapter.
Resumo:
Ozone present in the atmosphere not only absorbs the biologically harmful ultraviolet radiation but also is an important ingredient of the climate system. The radiative absorption properties of ozone make it a determining factor in the structure of the atmosphere. Ozone in the troposphere has many negative impacts on humans and other living beings. Another significant aspect is the absorption of outgoing infrared radiation by ozone thus acting as a greenhouse gas. The variability of ozone in the atmosphere involves many interconnections with the incoming and outgoing radiation, temperature circulation etc. Hence ozone forms an important part of chemistry-climate as well as radiative transfer models. This aspect also makes the quantification of ozone more important. The discovery of Antarctic ozone hole and the role of anthropogenic activities in causing it made it possible to plan and implement necessary preventive measures. Continuous monitoring of ozone is also necessary to identify the effect of these preventive steps. The reactions involving the formation and destruction of ozone are influenced significantly by the temperature fluctuations of the atmosphere. On the other hand the variations in ozone can change the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Indian subcontinent is a region having large weather and climate variability which is evident from the large interannual variability of monsoon system over the region. Nearly half of Indian region comprises the tropical region. Most of ozone is formed in the tropical region and transported to higher latitudes. The formation and transport of ozone can be influenced by changes in solar radiation and various atmospheric circulation features. Besides industrial activities and vehicular traffic is more due to its large population. This may give rise to an increase in the production of tropospheric ozone which is greenhouse gas. Hence it becomes necessary to monitor the atmospheric ozone over this region. This study probes into the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of ozone over Indian subcontinent and discusses the contributing atmospheric parameters.
Resumo:
Satellite remote sensing is being effectively used in monitoring the ocean surface and its overlying atmosphere. Technical growth in the field of satellite sensors has made satellite measurement an inevitable part of oceanographic and atmospheric research. Among the ocean observing sensors, ocean colour sensors make use of visible band of electromagnetic spectrum (shorter wavelength). The use of shorter wavelength ensures fine spatial resolution of these parameters to depict oceanographic and atmospheric characteristics of any region having significant spaio-temporal variability. Off the southwest coast of India is such an area showing very significant spatio-temporal oceanographic and atmospheric variability due to the seasonally reversing surface winds and currents. Consequently, the region is enriched with features like upwelling, sinking, eddies, fronts, etc. Among them, upwelling brings nutrient-rich waters from subsurface layers to surface layers. During this process primary production enhances, which is measured in ocean colour sensors as high values of Chl a. Vertical attenuation depth of incident solar radiation (Kd) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) are another two parameters provided by ocean colour sensors. Kd is also susceptible to undergo significant seasonal variability due to the changes in the content of Chl a in the water column. Moreover, Kd is affected by sediment transport in the upper layers as the region experiences land drainage resulting from copious rainfall. The wide range of variability of wind speed and direction may also influence the aerosol source / transport and consequently AOD. The present doctoral thesis concentrates on the utility of Chl a, Kd and AODprovided by satellite ocean colour sensors to understand oceanographic and atmospheric variability off the southwest coast of India. The thesis is divided into six Chapters with further subdivisions
Resumo:
The Arabian Sea is an area of complex air-sea interaction processes with seasonal reversing monsoons. The associated thermohaline variability in the upper layers appears to control the large scale monsoon flow which is not yet completely understood. The variability in the thermohaline fields is known to occur in temporal domain ranging from intra-diurnal to inter-annual time scales and on spatial domains of few tens of kilometers to few thousands of kilometers. In the Arabian Sea though the surface temperature was routinely measured by both conventional measurements and satellites, the corresponding information on the subsurface thermohaline field is very sparse due to the lack cw adequate measurements. In such cases the numerical models offer promise in providing information on the subsurface features given an initial thermohaline field and surface heat flux boundary conditions. This thesis is an outcome of investigations carried out on the various aspects of the thermohaline variability on different time scales. In addition to the description of the mean annual cycle. the one dimensional numerical models of Miller (1976) and Price et a1 (1986) are utilised to simulate the observed mixed layer characteristics at selected locations in the Arabian Sea on time scales ranging from intra-diurnal to synoptic scales under variable atmospheric forcing.
Resumo:
In general Indian summer monsoon rainfall did not show any significant trend in all Indian summer monsoon rainfall series, however, it was reported that the ISMR is subjected to spatial trends. This paper made an attempt to bring out long term trends of different intensity classes of summer monsoon rainfall in different regions of Indian subcontinent. The long term trend of seasonal and monthly rainfall were also made using the India Meteorological Department gridded daily rainfall data with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid for the period from 1st January, 1901 to 31st December, 2003. The summer monsoon rainfall shows an increasing trend in southeast, northwest and northeast regions, whereas decreasing trend in the central and west coastal regions. In monthly scale, July rainfall shows decreasing trend over west coastal and central Indian regions and significant increasing trend over northeast region at 0.1% significant level. During the month August, decreasing trend is observed in the west coastal stations at 10% significant level. In most of the stations, mean daily rainfall shows an increasing trend for low and very high intense rainfall. For the moderate rainfall, the trend is different for different regions. In the central and southern regions the trend of moderate and moderately high classes show increasing trend. And for the high and very high intensity classes, the trend is decreasing significantly. In the northeastern regions, above 10 mm/day rainfall shows significantly increasing trend with 0.1% significant level.
Resumo:
Heavy metals in the surface sediments of the two coastal ecosystems of Cochin, southwest India were assessed. The study intends to evaluate the degree of anthropogenic influence on heavy metal concentration in the sediments of the mangrove and adjacent estuarine stations using enrichment factor and geoaccumulation index. The inverse relationship of Cd and Zn with texture in the mangrove sediments suggested the anthropogenic enrichment of these metals in the mangrove systems. In the estuarine sediments, the absence of any significant correlation of the heavy metals with other sedimentary parameters and their strong interdependence revealed the possibility that the input is not through the natural weathering processes. The analysis of enrichment factor indicated a minor enrichment for Pb and Zn in mangrove sediments. While, extremely severe enrichment for Cd, moderate enrichment for Zn and minor enrichment of Pb were observed in estuarine system. The geo accumulation index exhibited very low values for all metals except Zn, indicating the sediments of the mangrove ecosystem are unpolluted to moderately polluted by anthropogenic activities. However, very strongly polluted condition for Cd and a moderately polluted condition for Zn were evident in estuarine sediments
Resumo:
The mangroves of Kerala are fast disappearing due to developmental activities.There are very few studies conducted in the chemical aspects of these ecosystems.The main objective of this study is to assess the spatial and seasonal variation of hydrographical as well as nutrients in mangrove ecosystems along Kerala coast. Five sampling sites least intervened by industries were selected for the study. Sampling was done for a period of six months in monthly intervals. A monsoonal hike of dissolved nutrients was observed in all ecosystems except in the constructed mangrove wetland. The constructed wetland exhibited a different hydrography and nutrient level in all seasons. The mangrove forest in this area consists of the species Bruguiera gymnorrhiza which has been planted since forty years.
Resumo:
Maize production in smallholder farming systems in Kenya is largely limited by low soil fertility. As mineral fertilizer is expensive, green manuring using leguminous cover crops could be an alternative strategy for farmers to enhance farm productivity. However due to variability in soil type and crop management, the effects of green manure are likely to differ with farms. The objectives of this study were to evaluate Mucuna pruriens and Arachis pintoi on (i) biomass and nitrogen fixation (^15N natural abundance), (ii) soil carbon and nitrogen stocks and (iii) their effects on maize yields over two cropping seasons in Kakamega, Western Kenya. Mucuna at 6 weeks accumulated 1–1.3 Mg ha^{-1} of dry matter and 33–56 kg ha^{-1} nitrogen of which 70% was nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (Ndfa). Arachis after 12 months accumulated 2–2.7 Mg ha^{-1} of dry matter and 51–74 kg N ha^{-1} of which 52-63 % was from Ndfa. Soil carbon and nitrogen stocks at 0–15 cm depth were enhanced by 2-4 Mg C ha^{-1} and 0.3–1.0 Mg N ha^{-1} under Mucuna and Arachis fallow, irrespective of soil type. Maize yield increased by 0.5-2 Mg ha^{-1} in Mucuna and 0.5–3 Mg ha^{-1} in Arachis and the response was stronger on Nitisol than on Acrisol or Ferralsol. We concluded that leguminous cover crops seem promising in enhancing soil fertility and maize yields in Kenya, provided soil conditions and rainfall are suitable.