Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

Reproducibility of species lists, visual cover estimates and frequency methods for recording high mountain vegetation

Question: When multiple observers record the same spatial units of alpine vegetation, how much variation is there in the records and what are the consequences of this variation for monitoring schemes to detect change? Location: One test summit in Switzerland (Alps) and one test summit in Scotland (Cairngorm Mountains). Method: Eight observers used the GLORIA protocols for species composition and visual cover estimates in percent on large summit sections (>100 m2) and species composition and frequency in nested quadrats (1 m2). Results: The multiple records from the same spatial unit for species composition and species cover showed considerable variation in the two countries. Estimates of pseudoturnover of composition and coefficients of variation of cover estimates for vascular plant species in 1m x 1m quadrats showed less variation than in previously published reports whereas our results in larger sections were broadly in line with previous reports. In Scotland, estimates for bryophytes and lichens were more variable than for vascular plants. Conclusions: Statistical power calculations indicated that, unless large numbers of plots were used, changes in cover or frequency were only likely to be detected for abundant species (exceeding 10% cover) or if relative changes were large (50% or more). Lower variation could be reached with the point methods and with larger numbers of small plots. However, as summits often strongly differ from each other, supplementary summits cannot be considered as a way of increasing statistical power without introducing a supplementary component of variance into the analysis and hence the power calculations.

Maximized Utility of the Global Positioning System, HR-316, 1991

This report describes a project begun in January 1989 and completed December 1990, with the primary objective of obtaining sufficiently accurate horizontal and vertical control by using Global Positioning System (GPS) for highway applications. The ISU research group studied the operations of the Ashtech GPS receiver in static, pseudo-static, kinematic, and pseudo-kinematic modes. By using the Electronic Distance Measuring Instrument (EDMI) Calibration Baseline at ISU, the GPS receiver was tested for distance measurement accuracy. It was found that GPS measurements differed from the baseline distance by about 5.3 mm. Four projects were undertaken to further evaluate and improve the horizontal as well as the vertical accuracies of the GPS receiver -- (1) The Campus Project: with all points concentrated within a one-mile radius; (2) The Des Moines Project: a typical DOT project with all the points within a five-mile radius; (3) The Iowa Project: with all points within a 100-mile radius in the state of Iowa; and (4) The Mustang Project: an extension of the Iowa project, including a typical DOT project of about 10 miles within the inner 30 mile radius of the Iowa project.

Effect of orthographic processes on letter identity and letter-position encoding in dyslexic children.

The ability to identify letters and encode their position is a crucial step of the word recognition process. However and despite their word identification problem, the ability of dyslexic children to encode letter identity and letter-position within strings was not systematically investigated. This study aimed at filling this gap and further explored how letter identity and letter-position encoding is modulated by letter context in developmental dyslexia. For this purpose, a letter-string comparison task was administered to French dyslexic children and two chronological age (CA) and reading age (RA)-matched control groups. Children had to judge whether two successively and briefly presented four-letter strings were identical or different. Letter-position and letter identity were manipulated through the transposition (e.g., RTGM vs. RMGT) or substitution of two letters (e.g., TSHF vs. TGHD). Non-words, pseudo-words, and words were used as stimuli to investigate sub-lexical and lexical effects on letter encoding. Dyslexic children showed both substitution and transposition detection problems relative to CA-controls. A substitution advantage over transpositions was only found for words in dyslexic children whereas it extended to pseudo-words in RA-controls and to all type of items in CA-controls. Letters were better identified in the dyslexic group when belonging to orthographically familiar strings. Letter-position encoding was very impaired in dyslexic children who did not show any word context effect in contrast to CA-controls. Overall, the current findings point to a strong letter identity and letter-position encoding disorder in developmental dyslexia.

Padrões de liberação de urediniósporos e desenvolvimento da ferrugem do jambeiro

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar padrões epidemiológicos de campo do fungo (Puccinia psidii Winter) que causa a ferrugem em jambeiro (Syzygium jambos). Entre 29/3 e 31/12/1988, levantou-se a incidência da doença e a população aérea de urediniósporos, na Universidade de Brasília, DF. Avaliaram-se dez plantas, sendo que, entre duas delas, instalou-se uma armadilha Burkard caça-esporos de sete dias. A maior quantidade de urediniósporos capturada foi de 23 de junho a 6 de julho. A principal carga de esporos ocorreu de maio a julho, entre as 10h e as 13 horas. Os maiores números de brotos de jambeiro com pústulas esporulantes ocorreram entre 28 de abril e 20 de julho. O número de brotos terminais infectados foi positivamente correlacionado com a quantidade de esporos. A temperatura (às 12h) foi negativamente correlacionada com a quantidade de urediniósporos dispersos no ar. O número de dias com umidade relativa (UR) do ar (às 24h) > ou = 80% foi positivamente correlacionado com a quantidade de brotos deformados. A quantidade de urediniósporos foi positivamente correlacionada com o número de dias com temperatura <=20ºC e UR(24h) > ou = 80%. Ao maior pico de urediniósporos capturados precedeu um período sem precipitação, porém com vários dias de UR(24h) > ou = 80% e temperatura <=20ºC. Estes dados mostraram que a doença foi favorecida por temperaturas <=20ºC e por UR noturna > ou = 80%.

Troubles psychiques et épilepsies [Mental disorders and epilepsies]

Mental disorders in patients having difficulties to treat their epilepsy are without a doubt more frequent than those presented by patients with controlled epilepsies or within a general population. These problems are especially affective disorders; clinical presentations of these troubles are often particular and difficult to classify through the current admitted classification guidelines. We speak generally about an interictal dysphoric disorder. The relationship between observed troubles in seizures is in some cases very particular: postictal depressions and psychosis are very peculiar disorders, self limited, difficult to detect and to treat. Some considerations are made about certain topics related to severe epilepsies: suicide, pseudo seizures and therapeutic attitude.

Novo método de classificação de coeficientes de variação para a cultura do arroz de terras altas

A avaliação de coeficientes de variação (CV) como medida de precisão em experimentos tem sido realizada em diversas culturas, com alguns trabalhos propondo métodos para obtenção de faixas de classificação de CV, e outros trabalhos definindo as faixas de classificação, sempre com base na média e no desvio-padrão dos CVs, e pressupondo que os mesmos têm distribuição normal, o que nem sempre é verdadeiro. Este trabalho teve por objetivo propor um método para definir faixas de classificação de CV, independentemente da distribuição que possam apresentar; o método é baseado no uso da mediana (Md) e do pseudo-sigma (PS). Utilizaramse, para este estudo, dados de 110 experimentos com arroz de terras altas, delineados em blocos completos casualizados, blocos incompletos generalizados, e reticulados quadrados, selecionandose os caracteres relacionados às doenças, ao acamamento, ao rendimento de grãos e a alguns componentes da produção. Foram construídas faixas de classificação de CV de cada caráter estudado, de forma geral e considerando o delineamento experimental empregado em experimentos com 30 a 100 tratamentos. O método proposto é eficiente para a definição de faixas dos CVs, independentemente de sua distribuição, e a variação nos valores do CV evidencia a importância de se considerar não só a variável em estudo, mas também o delineamento experimental utilizado. Experimentos que apresentaram menores CVs foram aqueles em que se empregaram os Delineamentos de Blocos Incompletos. As variáveis relacionadas às doenças e ao acamamento apresentam maiores coeficientes de variação.

Guidelines for Cleaning up Former Methamphetamine Labs, June 2009

Methamphetamine (meth) drug labs are not a new hazard to Iowa. In 2004, federal, state and local authorities seized more than 1,400 Iowa labs. These labs are discovered in houses, apartments, motel rooms, motor vehicles, and even an occasional combine. A dramatic decrease in the number of meth labs occurred in 2005 when a law restricting the purchase of pseudo-ephedrine was implemented. Although the number of meth labs has decreased, they continue to exist. Since there is currently no official federal guidance or regulations on how to clean up a former meth lab, the Iowa Department of Public Health, Division of Environmental Health, has created these basic guidelines to assist public health officials, property owners and the general public in cleaning up former meth lab properties.

Mineralogia, química e estabilidade de agregados do tamanho de silte de solos da Região Sudeste do Brasil

Com o objetivo de avaliar a relação da composição mineralógica e química do solo com a estabilidade de agregados do tamanho de silte, foram realizados estudos utilizando-se amostras de horizontes A e B de diversos solos da Região Sudeste do Brasil. Amostras de TFSA foram dispersas a 12.000 rpm por 20 minutos e a fração silte foi separada por esgotamento da fração argila, constituindo-se na fração denominada pseudo-silte, a qual foi sonificada, separando-se a fração argila desagregada (por sifonamento) da fração silte propriamente dita. Estudos de correlação mostraram que as composições mineralógica e química dos solos têm efeito marcante na dispersão de argila, com reflexos na fração silte. Maiores teores de gibbsita refletem em maior estabilidade dos agregados do tamanho de silte ao passo que a caulinita proporciona efeito inverso. As formas de Al determinadas na fração pseudo-silte estão associadas à maior dificuldade de dispersão da fração argila dos solos.

Proposta de classificação dos coeficientes de variação em relação à produtividade e altura da planta de soja

O objetivo deste trabalho foi definir classificações de coeficientes de variação para produtividade e altura da planta de soja. Os dados foram obtidos de ensaios intermediários e finais realizados nos estados do Paraná e do Mato Grosso. Foram realizadas classificações distintas para cada localização e ciclo reprodutivo. Considerando-se a média e o desvio-padrão dos coeficientes de variação obtidos das análises de variância dos ensaios, os coeficientes foram classificados como baixo, médio, alto e muito alto. Uma classificação adicional foi feita utilizando a mediana e o pseudo-sigma, em substituição à média e ao desvio-padrão, respectivamente. A classificação dos coeficientes de variação dependeu do caráter e da localização, mas não variou muito em razão do ciclo reprodutivo. Os critérios adotados (média e desvio-padrão ou mediana e pseudo-sigma) foram semelhantes (independentemente da distribuição dos coeficientes de variação) e satisfatórios para determinar a precisão experimental. O limite máximo de coeficiente de variação aceitável para produtividade é de 16% e para altura da planta é de 12%.

Genetic linkage maps of 'Pêra' sweet orange and 'Cravo' mandarin with RAPD markers

The objective of this work was to construct linkage maps of 'Pêra' sweet orange [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck] and 'Cravo' mandarin (Citrus reticulata Blanco) using RAPD markers and the pseudo-testcross strategy. The parents were chosen according to the resistance/susceptibility to citrus variegate chlorosis (CVC). The segregation of 176 markers was analyzed in 94 progeny of F1 hybrids, which were obtained from controlled crossings. The linkage map of 'Pêra' sweet orange had 117 markers defined by 12 linkage groups, which spanned 612.1 cM. Only six markers could not be linked to the linkage group and 48.7% of the markers showed segregation distortion. The linkage map of 'Cravo' mandarin had 51 markers defined by 12 linkage groups, which spanned 353.3 cM. Only two markers did not link to the groups and 15.7% showed segregation distortion. The construction of linkage maps is relevant to future mapping studies of the inheritance of CVC, citrus canker and leprosis.

Dyslexia in a French-Spanish bilingual girl: behavioural and neural modulations following a visual attention span intervention.

We report the case study of a French-Spanish bilingual dyslexic girl, MP, who exhibited a severe visual attention (VA) span deficit but preserved phonological skills. Behavioural investigation showed a severe reduction of reading speed for both single items (words and pseudo-words) and texts in the two languages. However, performance was more affected in French than in Spanish. MP was administered an intensive VA span intervention programme. Pre-post intervention comparison revealed a positive effect of intervention on her VA span abilities. The intervention further transferred to reading. It primarily resulted in faster identification of the regular and irregular words in French. The effect of intervention was rather modest in Spanish that only showed a tendency for faster word reading. Text reading improved in the two languages with a stronger effect in French but pseudo-word reading did not improve in either French or Spanish. The overall results suggest that VA span intervention may primarily enhance the fast global reading procedure, with stronger effects in French than in Spanish. MP underwent two fMRI sessions to explore her brain activations before and after VA span training. Prior to the intervention, fMRI assessment showed that the striate and extrastriate visual cortices alone were activated but none of the regions typically involved in VA span. Post-training fMRI revealed increased activation of the superior and inferior parietal cortices. Comparison of pre- and post-training activations revealed significant activation increase of the superior parietal lobes (BA 7) bilaterally. Thus, we show that a specific VA span intervention not only modulates reading performance but further results in increased brain activity within the superior parietal lobes known to housing VA span abilities. Furthermore, positive effects of VA span intervention on reading suggest that the ability to process multiple visual elements simultaneously is one cause of successful reading acquisition.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

Methods for Estimating Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Streams in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2010, TR-519, 2013

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance- probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedanceprobability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized leastsquares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized leastsquares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97.9 percent for flood region 2, and 92.4 to 96.0 percent for flood region 3. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the eight selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided by the Web-based tool. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these eight selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.