A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Migration of Husbands, Remittances and Agricultural Production: Impacts when Wives Head Households in Rural Kenya

This paper uses data collected from migrants' wives in the Nyeri district of Kenya. The main objective is to determine whether migration and remittances contribute to the development of agriculture. Our results suggest that most migrants are pushed out of rural areas, belong to the group of low-paid workers in urban areas, send little and irregular remittances to their wives back in rural areas and that these remittances are mainly used for consumption purposes and do not contribute to any significant development in agriculture. Our results also indicate that altruism or social obligation might be the main reason for migrants sending remittances back to their rural wives.

Two Atypical Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli Strains Induce the Production of Secreted and Membrane-Bound Mucins To Benefit Their Own Growth at the Apical Surface of Human Mucin-Secreting Intestinal HT29-MTX Cells

In rabbit ligated ileal loops, two atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (aEPEC) strains, 3991-1 and 0421-1, intimately associated with the cell membrane, forming the characteristic EPEC attachment and effacement lesion of the brush border, induced a mucous hypersecretion, whereas typical EPEC (tEPEC) strain E2348/69 did not. Using cultured human mucin-secreting intestinal HT29-MTX cells, we demonstrate that apically aEPEC infection is followed by increased production of secreted MUC2 and MUC5AC mucins and membrane-bound MUC3 and MUC4 mucins. The transcription of the MUC5AC and MUC4 genes was transiently upregulated after aEPEC infection. We provide evidence that the apically adhering aEPEC cells exploit the mucins` increased production since they grew in the presence of membrane-bound mucins, whereas tEPEC did not. The data described herein report a putative new virulence phenomenon in aEPEC.

Low doses of monocrotaline in rats cause diminished bone marrow cellularity and compromised nitric oxide production by peritoneal macrophages

Monocrotaline (MCT) is a pyrrolizidine alkaloid found in a variety of plants. The main symptoms of MCT toxicosis in livestock are related to hepato- and nephrotoxicity; in rodents and humans, the induction of a pulmonary hypertensive state that progresses to cor pulmonale has received much attention. Although studies have shown that MCT can cause effects on cellular functions that would be critical to those of lymphocytes/macrophages during a normal immune response, no immunotoxicological study on MCT have yet to ever be performed. Thus, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of MCT on different branches of the immune system using the rat - which is known to be sensitive to the effects of MCT - as the model. Rats were treated once a day by gavage with 0.0, 0.3, 1.0, 3.0, or 5.0 mg MCT/kg for 14 days, and then any effects of the alkaloid on lymphoid organs, acquired immune responses, and macrophage activity were evaluated. No alterations in the relative weight of lymphoid organs were observed; however, diminished bone marrow cellularity in rats treated with the alkaloid was observed. MCT did not affect humoral or cellular immune responses. When macrophages were evaluated, treatments with MCT caused no significant alterations in phagocytic function or in hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) production; however, the MCT did cause compromised nitric oxide (NO) release by these cells.

Improved Production of Genetically Modified Fetuses with Homogeneous Transgene Expression After Transgene Integration Site Analysis and Recloning in Cattle

Animal cloning by nuclear transfer (NT) has made the production of transgenic animals using genetically modified donor cells possible and ensures the presence of the gene construct in the offspring. The identification of transgene insertion sites in donor cells before cloning may avoid the production of animals that carry undesirable characteristics due to positional effects. This article compares blastocyst development and competence to establish pregnancies of bovine cloned embryos reconstructed with lentivirus-mediated transgenic fibroblasts containing either random integration of a transgene (random integration group) or nuclear transfer derived transgenic fibroblasts with known transgene insertion sites submitted to recloning (recloned group). In the random integration group, eGFP-expressing bovine fetal fibroblasts were selected by fluorescence activated cell sorting (FACS) and used as nuclei donor cells for NT. In the recloned group, a fibroblast cell line derived from a transgenic cloned fetus was characterized regarding transgene insertion and submitted to recloning. The recloned group had higher blastocyst production (25.38 vs. 14.42%) and higher percentage of 30-day pregnancies (14.29 vs. 2.56%) when compared to the random integration group. Relative eGFP expression analysis in fibroblasts derived from each cloned embryo revealed more homogeneous expression in the recloned group. In conclusion, the use of cell lines recovered from transgenic fetuses after identification of the transgene integration site allowed for the production of cells and fetuses with stable transgene expression, and recloning may improve transgenic animal yields.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

Human immature dental pulp stem cells` contribution to developing mouse embryos: production of human/mouse preterm chimaeras

In this study, we aimed at determining whether human immature dental pulp stem cells (hIDPSC) would be able to contribute to different cell types in mouse blastocysts without damaging them. Also, we analysed whether these blastocysts would progress further into embryogenesis when implanted to the uterus of foster mice, and develop human/mouse chimaera with retention of hIDPSC derivates and their differentiation. hIDPSC and mouse blastocysts were used in this study. Fluorescence staining of hIDPSC and injection into mouse blastocysts, was performed. Histology, immunohistochemistry, fluorescence in situ hybridization and confocal microscopy were carried out. hIDPSC showed biological compatibility with the mouse host environment and could survive, proliferate and contribute to the inner cell mass as well as to the trophoblast cell layer after introduction into early mouse embryos (n = 28), which achieved the hatching stage following 24 and 48 h in culture. When transferred to foster mice (n = 5), these blastocysts with hIDPSC (n = 57) yielded embryos (n = 3) and foetuses (n = 6); demonstrating presence of human cells in various organs, such as brain, liver, intestine and hearts, of the human/mouse chimaeras. We verified whether hIDPSC would also be able to differentiate into specific cell types in the mouse environment. Contribution of hIDPSC in at least two types of tissues (muscles and epithelial), was confirmed. We showed that hIDPSC survived, proliferated and differentiated in mouse developing blastocysts and were capable of producing human/mouse chimaeras.

Notes on market failure and the Paretian (Kaldor-Hicks) relevance and irrelevance of unfavourable externalities

The following are notes that have been distributed by me over the last few years to students in Environmental Economics at The University of Queensland. They give particular attention to whether externalities are Pareto or Kaldor-Hicks relevant from a policy point of view. Externalities are Kaldor-Hicks or Pareto irrelevant if no change is possible for which gainers could compensate losers. Both absolute and marginal externalities may be Kaldor-Hicks relevant. Infra-marginal negative externalities are often, but not always, Kaldor-Hicks irrelevant. There are at least two cases where such externalities can be relevant. First, the absolute impact of the negative externality may be so great that the source of the externality should be eliminated. Secondly, if the externality arises from production, its nature may depend on the type of production technique adopted. Although for the technique adopted, an infra-marginal negative externality occurs. That is Paretian irrelevant given that choice of this technique is the only available possibility, alternative techniques may actually be available in practice. Some of these may generate even smaller total external effects and be socially preferable. Both cases are outlined and illustrated in these notes. The analysis reveals the dangers of relying on marginalism for deciding on environmental policy. Total (external) effects are often of great social and economic importance and appropriate social choices cannot be made on the basis of marginalism alone.

Marital status, farm size and other influences on the extent of cash cropping in Kenya: A household case study

This article examines the effects of marital status, farm size and other factors on the extent of cash cropping (and allocation of land use) by means of a case study in the Nyeri district in Kenya. It was found that married women are involved in the production of a relatively greater amount of output of cash crops than unmarried women since husbands prefer to have more land under cash crops than food crops. Farmers with better quality land allocate a high proportion of it to non-food cash crops, which may expose some households to greater risks of possible famine. The proportion of land allocated to food crops declines as the farm size increases while the proportion of land allocated to non-food cash crops rises as the size of farm increases. Age is also inversely associated with subsistence. Education, though inversely associated with subsistence farming does not appear to be statistically very significant as an influence on the composition of land use and composition of farm output. With growing commercialisation, married women work more hours than unmarried ones, working not only on non-cash food crops but also on non-food cash crops. Married women seem to lose their decision-making ability with growth of agricultural commercialisation, as husbands make most decisions to do with cash crops. Married women in Kenya also have little or no power to change the way land is allocated between food and non-food cash crops.