Flow pattern analysis in a highly stenotic patient-specific carotid bifurcation model using a turbulence model

The aim of this study is to investigate the blood flow pattern in carotid bifurcation with a high degree of luminal stenosis, combining in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A newly developed two-equation transitional model was employed to evaluate wall shear stress (WSS) distribution and pressure drop across the stenosis, which are closely related to plaque vulnerability. A patient with an 80% left carotid stenosis was imaged using high resolution MRI, from which a patient-specific geometry was reconstructed and flow boundary conditions were acquired for CFD simulation. A transitional model was implemented to investigate the flow velocity and WSS distribution in the patient-specific model. The peak time-averaged WSS value of approximately 73Pa was predicted by the transitional flow model, and the regions of high WSS occurred at the throat of the stenosis. High oscillatory shear index values up to 0.50 were present in a helical flow pattern from the outer wall of the internal carotid artery immediately after the throat. This study shows the potential suitability of a transitional turbulent flow model in capturing the flow phenomena in severely stenosed carotid arteries using patient-specific MRI data and provides the basis for further investigation of the links between haemodynamic variables and plaque vulnerability. It may be useful in the future for risk assessment of patients with carotid disease.

How critical is fibrous cap thickness to carotid plaque stability? A flow-plaque interaction model

Background and Purpose Acute cerebral ischemic events are associated with rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis. Factors such as luminal stenosis and fibrous cap thickness have been thought to be important risk factors for plaque rupture. We used a flow-structure interaction model to simulate the interaction between blood flow and atheromatous plaque to evaluate the effect of the degree of luminal stenosis and fibrous cap thickness on plaque vulnerability. Methods A coupled nonlinear time-dependent model with a flow-plaque interaction simulation was used to perform flow and stress/strain analysis in a stenotic carotid artery model. The stress distribution within the plaque and the flow conditions within the vessel were calculated for every case when varying the fibrous cap thickness from 0.1 to 2 mm and the degree of luminal stenosis from 10% to 95%. A rupture stress of 300 kPa was chosen to indicate a high risk of plaque rupture. A 1-sample t test was used to compare plaque stresses with the rupture stress. Results High stress concentrations were found in the plaques in arteries with >70% degree of stenosis. Plaque stresses in arteries with 30% to 70% stenosis increased exponentially as fibrous cap thickness decreased. A decrease of fibrous cap thickness from 0.4 to 0.2 mm resulted in an increase of plaque stress from 141 to 409 kPa in a 40% degree stenotic artery. Conclusions There is an increase in plaque stress in arteries with a thin fibrous cap. The presence of a moderate carotid stenosis (30% to 70%) with a thin fibrous cap indicates a high risk for plaque rupture. Patients in the future may be risk stratified by measuring both fibrous cap thickness and luminal stenosis.

Graze to grain - measuring and modelling the effects of grazed pasture leys on soil nitrogen and sorghum yield on a Vertosol soil in the Australian subtropics

Highly productive sown pasture systems can result in high growth rates of beef cattle and lead to increases in soil nitrogen and the production of subsequent crops. The nitrogen dynamics and growth of grain sorghum following grazed annual legume leys or a grass pasture were investigated in a no-till system in the South Burnett district of Queensland. Two years of the tropical legumes Macrotyloma daltonii and Vigna trilobata (both self regenerating annual legumes) and Lablab purpureus (a resown annual legume) resulted in soil nitrate N (0-0.9 m depth), at sorghum sowing, ranging from 35 to 86 kg/ha compared with 4 kg/ha after pure grass pastures. Average grain sorghum production in the 4 cropping seasons following the grazed legume leys ranged from 2651 to 4012 kg/ha. Following the grass pasture, grain sorghum production in the first and second year was < 1900 kg/ha and by the third year grain yield was comparable to the legume systems. Simulation studies utilising the farming systems model APSIM indicated that the soil N and water dynamics following 2-year ley phases could be closely represented over 4 years and the prediction of sorghum growth during this time was reasonable. In simulated unfertilised sorghum crops grown from 1954 to 2004, grain yield did not exceed 1500 kg/ha in 50% of seasons following a grass pasture, while following 2-year legume leys, grain exceeded 3000 kg/ha in 80% of seasons. It was concluded that mixed farming systems that utilise short term legume-based pastures for beef production in rotation with crop production enterprises can be highly productive.

Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using APSIM: Model parameterisation and evaluation

Assessing the sustainability of crop and soil management practices in wheat-based rotations requires a well-tested model with the demonstrated ability to sensibly predict crop productivity and changes in the soil resource. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) suite of models was parameterised and subsequently used to predict biomass production, yield, crop water and nitrogen (N) use, as well as long-term soil water and organic matter dynamics in wheat/chickpea systems at Tel Hadya, north-western Syria. The model satisfactorily simulated the productivity and water and N use of wheat and chickpea crops grown under different N and/or water supply levels in the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 experimental seasons. Analysis of soil-water dynamics showed that the 2-stage soil evaporation model in APSIM's cascading water-balance module did not sufficiently explain the actual soil drying following crop harvest under conditions where unused water remained in the soil profile. This might have been related to evaporation from soil cracks in the montmorillonitic clay soil, a process not explicitly simulated by APSIM. Soil-water dynamics in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations (1987-98) were nevertheless well simulated when the soil water content in 0-0.45 m soil depth was set to 'air dry' at the end of the growing season each year. The model satisfactorily simulated the amounts of NO3-N in the soil, whereas it underestimated the amounts of NH 4-N. Ammonium fixation might be part of the soil mineral-N dynamics at the study site because montmorillonite is the major clay mineral. This process is not simulated by APSIM's nitrogen module. APSIM was capable of predicting long-term trends (1985-98) in soil organic matter in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya as reported in literature. Overall, results showed that the model is generic and mature enough to be extended to this set of environmental conditions and can therefore be applied to assess the sustainability of wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya.

Development of profitable milk production systems for northern Australia: a field assessment of the productivity of five potential farming systems using farmlets.

Farmlets, each of 20 cows, were established to field test five milk production systems and provide a learning platform for farmers and researchers in a subtropical environment. The systems were developed through desktop modelling and industry consultation in response to the need for substantial increases in farm milk production following deregulation of the industry. Four of the systems were based on grazing and the continued use of existing farmland resource bases, whereas the fifth comprised a feedlot and associated forage base developed as a greenfield site. The field evaluation was conducted over 4 years under more adverse environmental conditions than anticipated with below average rainfall and restrictions on irrigation. For the grazed systems, mean annual milk yield per cow ranged from 6330 kg/year (1.9 cows/ha) for a herd based on rain-grown tropical pastures to 7617 kg/year (3.0 cows/ha) where animals were based on temperate and tropical irrigated forages. For the feedlot herd, production of 9460 kg/cow.year (4.3 cows/ha of forage base) was achieved. For all herds, the level of production achieved required annual inputs of concentrates of similar to 3 t DM/animal and purchased conserved fodder from 0.3 to 1.5 t DM/animal. This level of supplementary feeding made a major contribution to total farm nutrient inputs, contributing 50% or more of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium entering the farming system, and presents challenges to the management of manure and urine that results from the higher stocking rates enabled. Mean annual milk production for the five systems ranged from 88 to 105% of that predicted by the desktop modelling. This level of agreement for the grazed systems was achieved with minimal overall change in predicted feed inputs; however, the feedlot system required a substantial increase in inputs over those predicted. Reproductive performance for all systems was poorer than anticipated, particularly over the summer mating period. We conclude that the desktop model, developed as a rapid response to assist farmers modify their current farming systems, provided a reasonable prediction of inputs required and milk production. Further model development would need to consider more closely climate variability, the limitations summer temperatures place on reproductive success and the feed requirements of feedlot herds.

Egg production in furnished cages

In the European Union, conventional cages for laying hens will be faded out at the beginning of 2012. The rationale behind this is a public concern over animal welfare in egg production. As alternatives to conventional cages, the European Union Council Directive 1999/74/EC allows non-cage systems and enriched (furnished) cages. Layer performance, behavior, and welfare in differently sized furnished cages have been investigated quite widely during recent decades, but nutrition of hens in this production system has received less attention. This thesis aims to compare production and feed intake of laying hens in furnished and conventional cages and to study the effects of different dietary treatments in these production systems, thus contributing to the general knowledge of furnished cages as an egg production system. A furnished cage model for 8 hens was compared with a 3-hen conventional cage. Three consecutive experiments each studied one aspect of layer diet: The first experiment investigated the effects of dietary protein/energy ratio, the second dietary energy levels, and the third the effects of extra limestone supplementation. In addition, a fourth experiment evaluated the effects of perches on feed consumption and behavior of hens in furnished cages. The dietary treatments in experiments 1 3 generally had similar effects in the two cage types. Thus, there was no evidence supporting a change in nutrient requirements for laying hens when conventional cages are replaced with small-group furnished cages. Moreover, the results from nutritional experiments conducted in conventional cages can be applied to small-group furnished cage systems. These results support the view that production performance comparable with conventional cages can be achieved in furnished cages. All of the advantages of cages for bird welfare are sustained in the small-group furnished cages used here. In addition, frequent use of perches and nests implies a wider behavioral repertoire in furnished cages than in conventional cages. The increase observed in bone ash content may improve bird welfare in furnished cages. The presence of perches diminished feed consumption during the prelaying period and enhanced the feed conversion ratio during the early laying period in furnished cages. However, as the presence or absence of perches in furnished cages had no significant effect on feed consumption after the prelaying period, the lower feed consumption observed in furnished cages than in conventional cages could be attributed to other factors, such as the presence of wood shavings or a nest box. The wider feed trough space per hen in conventional than in furnished cages may partly explain the higher feed consumption observed in conventional cages.

Can sustainable cotton production systems be developed for tropical northern Australia?

This article reviews research coordinated by the Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) that investigated production issues for irrigated cotton at five targeted sites in tropical northern Australia, north of 21°S from Broome in Western Australia to the Burdekin in Queensland. The biotic and abiotic issues for cotton production were investigated with the aim of defining the potential limitations and, where appropriate, building a sustainable technical foundation for a future industry if it were to follow. Key lessons from the Cotton CRC research effort were: (1) limitations thought to be associated with cotton production in northern Australia can be overcome by developing a deep understanding of biotic and environmental constraints, then tailoring and validating production practices; and (2) transplanting of southern farming practices without consideration of local pest, soil and climatic factors is unlikely to succeed. Two grower guides were published which synthesised the research for new growers into a rational blueprint for sustainable cotton production in each region. In addition to crop production and environmental impact issues, the project identified the following as key elements needed to establish new cropping regions in tropical Australia: rigorous quantification of suitable land and sustainable water yields; support from governments; a long-term funding model for locally based research; the inclusion of traditional owners; and development of human capacity.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Output feedback control of networked systems with a stochastic communication protocol

This paper addresses an output feedback control problem for a class of networked control systems (NCSs) with a stochastic communication protocol. Under the scenario that only one sensor is allowed to obtain the communication access at each transmission instant, a stochastic communication protocol is first defined, where the communication access is modelled by a discrete-time Markov chain with partly unknown transition probabilities. Secondly, by use of a network-based output feedback control strategy and a time-delay division method, the closed-loop system is modeled as a stochastic system with multi time-varying delays, where the inherent characteristic of the network delay is well considered to improve the control performance. Then, based on the above constructed stochastic model, two sufficient conditions are derived for ensuring the mean-square stability and stabilization of the system under consideration. Finally, two examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Non-linear couette flow with heat transfer using the B-G-K model

In recent years a large number of investigators have devoted their efforts to the study of flow and heat transfer in rarefied gases, using the BGK [1] model or the Boltzmann kinetic equation. The velocity moment method which is based on an expansion of the distribution function as a series of orthogonal polynomials in velocity space, has been applied to the linearized problem of shear flow and heat transfer by Mott-Smith [2] and Wang Chang and Uhlenbeck [3]. Gross, Jackson and Ziering [4] have improved greatly upon this technique by expressing the distribution function in terms of half-range functions and it is this feature which leads to the rapid convergence of the method. The full-range moments method [4] has been modified by Bhatnagar [5] and then applied to plane Couette flow using the B-G-K model. Bhatnagar and Srivastava [6] have also studied the heat transfer in plane Couette flow using the linearized B-G-K equation. On the other hand, the half-range moments method has been applied by Gross and Ziering [7] to heat transfer between parallel plates using Boltzmann equation for hard sphere molecules and by Ziering [83 to shear and heat flow using Maxwell molecular model. Along different lines, a moment method has been applied by Lees and Liu [9] to heat transfer in Couette flow using Maxwell's transfer equation rather than the Boltzmann equation for distribution function. An iteration method has been developed by Willis [10] to apply it to non-linear heat transfer problems using the B-G-K model, with the zeroth iteration being taken as the solution of the collisionless kinetic equation. Krook [11] has also used the moment method to formulate the equivalent continuum equations and has pointed out that if the effects of molecular collisions are described by the B-G-K model, exact numerical solutions of many rarefied gas-dynamic problems can be obtained. Recently, these numerical solutions have been obtained by Anderson [12] for the non-linear heat transfer in Couette flow,

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Hysteresis in model spin systems

The authors study the hysteretic response of model spin systems to periodic time-varying fields H(t) as a function of the amplitude H0 and the frequency Omega . At fixed H0, they find conventional, squarish hysteresis loops at low Omega , and rounded, roughly elliptical loops at high Omega , in agreement with experiment. For the O(N to infinity ), d=3, ( Phi 2)2 model with Langevin dynamics, they find a novel scaling behaviour for the area A of the hysteresis loop, of the form (valid for low fields) A approximately=H0066 Omega 0.33.

Switching studies and the effect of irradiation on ferroelectric properties of TAAP and DTAAP

Polarization switching processes in TAAP and DTAAP have been studied by the Merz method. The switching process in DTAAP is slower than in TAAP. The temperature dependence of switching time indicates that the crystal might contain groups of domain nuclei with different activation energies. X-ray irradiation causes an increase in the threshold field below which switching could not occur and decrease in the mobility of domain walls. Irradiation decreases the peak value of dielectric constant, Tc and increases the value of coercive field. Domain structure studies on TAAP crystals have shown that the crystals grow as both predominantly single domain and multi domains, depending on which the internal bias increases or remains unaffected upon irradiation.

Production process of Scots pine.

The accompanying collective research report is the result of the research project in 1986­90 between The Finnish Academy and the former Soviet Academy of Sciences. The project was organized around common field work in Finland and in the former Soviet Union and theoretical analyses of tree growth determining processes. Based on theoretical analyses, dynamic stand growth models were made and their parameters were determined utilizing the field results. Annual cycle affects the tree growth. Our theoretical approach was based on adaptation to local climate conditions from Lapland to South Russia. The initiation of growth was described as a simple low and high temperature accumulation driven model. Linking the theoretical model with long term temperature data allowed us to analyze what type of temperature response produced favorable outcome in different climates. Initiation of growth consumes the carbohydrate reserves in plants. We measured the dynamics of insoluble and soluble sugars in the very northern and Karelian conditions. Clear cyclical pattern was observed but the differences between locations were surprisingly small. Analysis of field measurements of CO2 exchange showed that irradiance is the dominating factor causing variation in photosynthetic rate in natural conditions during summer. The effect of other factors is so small that they can be omitted without any considerable loss of accuracy. A special experiment carried out in Hyytiälä showed that the needle living space, defined as the ratio between the shoot cylindric volume and needle surface area, correlates with the shoot photosynthesis. The penetration of irradiance into Scots pine canopy is a complicated phenomenon because of the movement of the sun on the sky and the complicated structure of branches and needles. A moderately simple but balanced forest radiation regime submodel was constructed. It consists of the tree crown and forest structure, the gap probability calculation and the consideration of spatial and temporal variation of radiation inside the forest. The common field excursions in different geographical regions resulted in a lot of experimental data of regularities of woody structures. The water transport seems to be a good common factor to analyse these properties of tree structure. There are evident regressions between cross-sectional areas measured at different locations along the water pathway from fine roots to needles. The observed regressions have clear geographical trends. For example, the same cross-sectional area can support three times higher needle mass in South Russia than in Lapland. Geographical trends can also be seen in shoot and needle structure. Analysis of data published by several Russian authors show, that one ton of needles transpire 42 ton of water a year. This annual amount of transpiration seems to be independent of geographical location, year and site conditions. The produced theoretical and experimental material is utilised in the development of stand growth model that describes the growth and development of Scots pine stands in Finland and the former Soviet Union. The core of the model is carbon and nutrient balances. This means that carbon obtained in photosynthesis is consumed for growth and maintenance and nutrients are taken according to the metabolic needs. The annual photosynthetic production by trees in the stand is determined as a function of irradiance and shading during the active period. The utilisation of the annual photosynthetic production to the growth of different components of trees is based on structural regularities. Since the fundamental metabolic processes are the same in all locations the same growth model structure can be applied in the large range of Scots pine. The annual photosynthetic production and structural regularities determining the allocation of resources have geographical features. The common field measurements enable the application of the model to the analysis of growth and development of stands growing on the five locations of experiments. The model enables the analysis of geographical differences in the growth of Scots pine. For example, the annual photosynthetic production of a 100-year-old stand at Voronez is 3.5 times higher than in Lapland. The share consumed to needle growth (30 %) and to growth of branches (5 %) seems to be the same in all locations. In contrast, the share of fine roots is decreasing when moving from north to south. It is 20 % in Lapland, 15 % in Hyytiälä Central Finland and Kentjärvi Karelia and 15 % in Voronez South Russia. The stem masses (115­113 ton/ha) are rather similar in Hyytiälä, Kentjärvi and Voronez, but rather low (50 ton/ha) in Lapland. In Voronez the height of the trees reach 29 m being in Hyytiälä and Kentjärvi 22 m and in Lapland only 14 m. The present approach enables utilization of structural and functional knowledge, gained in places of intensive research, in the analysis of growth and development of any stand. This opens new possibilities for growth research and also for applications in forestry practice.