Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Quality Criteria for Enterprise Modelling in the context of networked Enterprises

The capability for collaboration is a key success factor for networked enterprises. The paper introduces a methodology supporting the application of Enterprise Modelling in order to improve the maturity for collaboration. The methodology considers the current status of maturity for interoperability for deducing the right modelling approach. The approach is combined with quality criteria of the models in order to guide the modelling process. Both the deducing approach and the quality criteria are related to the levels of interoperability proposed by the ATHENA Interoperability Framework.

Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a nonlinear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs

Partial nitritation of landfill leachate in a SBR prior to an anammox reactor : operation and modelling

Els lixiviats d'abocadors urbans són aigües residuals altament contaminades, que es caracteritzen per les elevades concentracions d'amoni i el baix contingut de matèria orgànica biodegradable. El tractament dels lixiviats a través dels processos de nitrificació-desnitrificació convencionals és costós a causa de la seva elevada demanda d'oxigen i la necessitat d'addició d'una font de carboni externa. En els darrers anys, la viabilitat del tractament d'aquest tipus d'afluents per un procés combinat de nitritació parcial-anammox ha estat demostrada. Aquesta tesi es centra en el tractament de lixiviats d'abocador a través d'un procés de nitritació parcial en SBR, com un pas preparatori per a un reactor anammox. Els resultats de l'estudi han demostrat la viabilitat d'aquesta tecnologia per al tractament de lixiviats d'abocador. El treball va evolucionar des d'una escala inicial de laboratori, on el procés va ser testat inicialment, a uns exitosos experiments d'operació a llarg termini a escala pilot. Finalment, la tesi també inclou el desenvolupament, calibració i validació d'un model matemàtic del procés, que té com a objectiu augmentar el coneixement del procés.

Modelling stereoscopic vision systems for robotic applications

Aquesta tesi s'emmarca dins del projecte CICYT TAP 1999-0443-C05-01. L'objectiu d'aquest projecte és el disseny, implementació i avaluació de robots mòbils, amb un sistema de control distribuït, sistemes de sensorització i xarxa de comunicacions per realitzar tasques de vigilància. Els robots han de poder-se moure per un entorn reconeixent la posició i orientació dels diferents objectes que l'envolten. Aquesta informació ha de permetre al robot localitzar-se dins de l'entorn on es troba per poder-se moure evitant els possibles obstacles i dur a terme la tasca encomanada. El robot ha de generar un mapa dinàmic de l'entorn que serà utilitzat per localitzar la seva posició. L'objectiu principal d'aquest projecte és aconseguir que un robot explori i construeixi un mapa de l'entorn sense la necessitat de modificar el propi entorn. Aquesta tesi està enfocada en l'estudi de la geometria dels sistemes de visió estereoscòpics formats per dues càmeres amb l'objectiu d'obtenir informació geomètrica 3D de l'entorn d'un vehicle. Aquest objectiu tracta de l'estudi del modelatge i la calibració de càmeres i en la comprensió de la geometria epipolar. Aquesta geometria està continguda en el que s'anomena emph{matriu fonamental}. Cal realitzar un estudi del càlcul de la matriu fonamental d'un sistema estereoscòpic amb la finalitat de reduir el problema de la correspondència entre dos plans imatge. Un altre objectiu és estudiar els mètodes d'estimació del moviment basats en la geometria epipolar diferencial per tal de percebre el moviment del robot i obtenir-ne la posició. Els estudis de la geometria que envolta els sistemes de visió estereoscòpics ens permeten presentar un sistema de visió per computador muntat en un robot mòbil que navega en un entorn desconegut. El sistema fa que el robot sigui capaç de generar un mapa dinàmic de l'entorn a mesura que es desplaça i determinar quin ha estat el moviment del robot per tal de emph{localitzar-se} dins del mapa. La tesi presenta un estudi comparatiu dels mètodes de calibració de càmeres més utilitzats en les últimes dècades. Aquestes tècniques cobreixen un gran ventall dels mètodes de calibració clàssics. Aquest mètodes permeten estimar els paràmetres de la càmera a partir d'un conjunt de punts 3D i de les seves corresponents projeccions 2D en una imatge. Per tant, aquest estudi descriu un total de cinc tècniques de calibració diferents que inclouen la calibració implicita respecte l'explicita i calibració lineal respecte no lineal. Cal remarcar que s'ha fet un gran esforç en utilitzar la mateixa nomenclatura i s'ha estandaritzat la notació en totes les tècniques presentades. Aquesta és una de les dificultats principals a l'hora de poder comparar les tècniques de calibració ja què cada autor defineix diferents sistemes de coordenades i diferents conjunts de paràmetres. El lector és introduït a la calibració de càmeres amb la tècnica lineal i implícita proposada per Hall i amb la tècnica lineal i explicita proposada per Faugeras-Toscani. A continuació es passa a descriure el mètode a de Faugeras incloent el modelatge de la distorsió de les lents de forma radial. Seguidament es descriu el conegut mètode proposat per Tsai, i finalment es realitza una descripció detallada del mètode de calibració proposat per Weng. Tots els mètodes són comparats tant des del punt de vista de model de càmera utilitzat com de la precisió de la calibració. S'han implementat tots aquests mètodes i s'ha analitzat la precisió presentant resultats obtinguts tant utilitzant dades sintètiques com càmeres reals. Calibrant cada una de les càmeres del sistema estereoscòpic es poden establir un conjunt de restriccions geomètri ques entre les dues imatges. Aquestes relacions són el que s'anomena geometria epipolar i estan contingudes en la matriu fonamental. Coneixent la geometria epipolar es pot: simplificar el problema de la correspondència reduint l'espai de cerca a llarg d'una línia epipolar; estimar el moviment d'una càmera quan aquesta està muntada sobre un robot mòbil per realitzar tasques de seguiment o de navegació; reconstruir una escena per aplicacions d'inspecció, propotipatge o generació de motlles. La matriu fonamental s'estima a partir d'un conjunt de punts en una imatges i les seves correspondències en una segona imatge. La tesi presenta un estat de l'art de les tècniques d'estimació de la matriu fonamental. Comença pels mètode lineals com el dels set punts o el mètode dels vuit punts, passa pels mètodes iteratius com el mètode basat en el gradient o el CFNS, fins arribar las mètodes robustos com el M-Estimators, el LMedS o el RANSAC. En aquest treball es descriuen fins a 15 mètodes amb 19 implementacions diferents. Aquestes tècniques són comparades tant des del punt de vista algorísmic com des del punt de vista de la precisió que obtenen. Es presenten el resultats obtinguts tant amb imatges reals com amb imatges sintètiques amb diferents nivells de soroll i amb diferent quantitat de falses correspondències. Tradicionalment, l'estimació del moviment d'una càmera està basada en l'aplicació de la geometria epipolar entre cada dues imatges consecutives. No obstant el cas tradicional de la geometria epipolar té algunes limitacions en el cas d'una càmera situada en un robot mòbil. Les diferencies entre dues imatges consecutives són molt petites cosa que provoca inexactituds en el càlcul de matriu fonamental. A més cal resoldre el problema de la correspondència, aquest procés és molt costós en quant a temps de computació i no és gaire efectiu per aplicacions de temps real. En aquestes circumstàncies les tècniques d'estimació del moviment d'una càmera solen basar-se en el flux òptic i en la geometria epipolar diferencial. En la tesi es realitza un recull de totes aquestes tècniques degudament classificades. Aquests mètodes són descrits unificant la notació emprada i es remarquen les semblances i les diferencies entre el cas discret i el cas diferencial de la geometria epipolar. Per tal de poder aplicar aquests mètodes a l'estimació de moviment d'un robot mòbil, aquest mètodes generals que estimen el moviment d'una càmera amb sis graus de llibertat, han estat adaptats al cas d'un robot mòbil que es desplaça en una superfície plana. Es presenten els resultats obtinguts tant amb el mètodes generals de sis graus de llibertat com amb els adaptats a un robot mòbil utilitzant dades sintètiques i seqüències d'imatges reals. Aquest tesi finalitza amb una proposta de sistema de localització i de construcció d'un mapa fent servir un sistema estereoscòpic situat en un robot mòbil. Diverses aplicacions de robòtica mòbil requereixen d'un sistema de localització amb l'objectiu de facilitar la navegació del vehicle i l'execució del les trajectòries planificades. La localització es sempre relativa al mapa de l'entorn on el robot s'està movent. La construcció de mapes en un entorn desconegut és una tasca important a realitzar per les futures generacions de robots mòbils. El sistema que es presenta realitza la localització i construeix el mapa de l'entorn de forma simultània. A la tesi es descriu el robot mòbil GRILL, que ha estat la plataforma de treball emprada per aquesta aplicació, amb el sistema de visió estereoscòpic que s'ha dissenyat i s'ha muntat en el robot. També es descriu tots el processos que intervenen en el sistema de localització i construcció del mapa. La implementació d'aquest processos ha estat possible gràcies als estudis realitzats i presentats prèviament (calibració de càmeres, estimació de la matriu fonamental, i estimació del moviment) sense els quals no s'hauria pogut plantejar aquest sistema. Finalment es presenten els mapes en diverses trajectòries realitzades pel robot GRILL en el laboratori. Les principals contribucions d'aquest treball són: ·Un estat de l'art sobre mètodes de calibració de càmeres. El mètodes són comparats tan des del punt de vista del model de càmera utilitzat com de la precisió dels mètodes. ·Un estudi dels mètodes d'estimació de la matriu fonamental. Totes les tècniques estudiades són classificades i descrites des d'un punt de vista algorísmic. ·Un recull de les tècniques d'estimació del moviment d'una càmera centrat en el mètodes basat en la geometria epipolar diferencial. Aquestes tècniques han estat adaptades per tal d'estimar el moviment d'un robot mòbil. ·Una aplicació de robòtica mòbil per tal de construir un mapa dinàmic de l'entorn i localitzar-se per mitja d'un sistema estereoscòpic. L'aplicació presentada es descriu tant des del punt de vista del maquinari com del programari que s'ha dissenyat i implementat.

Modelling, control and supervision for a class of hybrid systems

The aim of this thesis is to narrow the gap between two different control techniques: the continuous control and the discrete event control techniques DES. This gap can be reduced by the study of Hybrid systems, and by interpreting as Hybrid systems the majority of large-scale systems. In particular, when looking deeply into a process, it is often possible to identify interaction between discrete and continuous signals. Hybrid systems are systems that have both continuous, and discrete signals. Continuous signals are generally supposed continuous and differentiable in time, since discrete signals are neither continuous nor differentiable in time due to their abrupt changes in time. Continuous signals often represent the measure of natural physical magnitudes such as temperature, pressure etc. The discrete signals are normally artificial signals, operated by human artefacts as current, voltage, light etc. Typical processes modelled as Hybrid systems are production systems, chemical process, or continuos production when time and continuous measures interacts with the transport, and stock inventory system. Complex systems as manufacturing lines are hybrid in a global sense. They can be decomposed into several subsystems, and their links. Another motivation for the study of Hybrid systems is the tools developed by other research domains. These tools benefit from the use of temporal logic for the analysis of several properties of Hybrid systems model, and use it to design systems and controllers, which satisfies physical or imposed restrictions. This thesis is focused in particular types of systems with discrete and continuous signals in interaction. That can be modelled hard non-linealities, such as hysteresis, jumps in the state, limit cycles, etc. and their possible non-deterministic future behaviour expressed by an interpretable model description. The Hybrid systems treated in this work are systems with several discrete states, always less than thirty states (it can arrive to NP hard problem), and continuous dynamics evolving with expression: with Ki ¡ Rn constant vectors or matrices for X components vector. In several states the continuous evolution can be several of them Ki = 0. In this formulation, the mathematics can express Time invariant linear system. By the use of this expression for a local part, the combination of several local linear models is possible to represent non-linear systems. And with the interaction with discrete events of the system the model can compose non-linear Hybrid systems. Especially multistage processes with high continuous dynamics are well represented by the proposed methodology. Sate vectors with more than two components, as third order models or higher is well approximated by the proposed approximation. Flexible belt transmission, chemical reactions with initial start-up and mobile robots with important friction are several physical systems, which profits from the benefits of proposed methodology (accuracy). The motivation of this thesis is to obtain a solution that can control and drive the Hybrid systems from the origin or starting point to the goal. How to obtain this solution, and which is the best solution in terms of one cost function subject to the physical restrictions and control actions is analysed. Hybrid systems that have several possible states, different ways to drive the system to the goal and different continuous control signals are problems that motivate this research. The requirements of the system on which we work is: a model that can represent the behaviour of the non-linear systems, and that possibilities the prediction of possible future behaviour for the model, in order to apply an supervisor which decides the optimal and secure action to drive the system toward the goal. Specific problems can be determined by the use of this kind of hybrid models are: - The unity of order. - Control the system along a reachable path. - Control the system in a safe path. - Optimise the cost function. - Modularity of control The proposed model solves the specified problems in the switching models problem, the initial condition calculus and the unity of the order models. Continuous and discrete phenomena are represented in Linear hybrid models, defined with defined eighth-tuple parameters to model different types of hybrid phenomena. Applying a transformation over the state vector : for LTI system we obtain from a two-dimensional SS a single parameter, alpha, which still maintains the dynamical information. Combining this parameter with the system output, a complete description of the system is obtained in a form of a graph in polar representation. Using Tagaki-Sugeno type III is a fuzzy model which include linear time invariant LTI models for each local model, the fuzzyfication of different LTI local model gives as a result a non-linear time invariant model. In our case the output and the alpha measure govern the membership function. Hybrid systems control is a huge task, the processes need to be guided from the Starting point to the desired End point, passing a through of different specific states and points in the trajectory. The system can be structured in different levels of abstraction and the control in three layers for the Hybrid systems from planning the process to produce the actions, these are the planning, the process and control layer. In this case the algorithms will be applied to robotics ¡V a domain where improvements are well accepted ¡V it is expected to find a simple repetitive processes for which the extra effort in complexity can be compensated by some cost reductions. It may be also interesting to implement some control optimisation to processes such as fuel injection, DC-DC converters etc. In order to apply the RW theory of discrete event systems on a Hybrid system, we must abstract the continuous signals and to project the events generated for these signals, to obtain new sets of observable and controllable events. Ramadge & Wonham¡¦s theory along with the TCT software give a Controllable Sublanguage of the legal language generated for a Discrete Event System (DES). Continuous abstraction transforms predicates over continuous variables into controllable or uncontrollable events, and modifies the set of uncontrollable, controllable observable and unobservable events. Continuous signals produce into the system virtual events, when this crosses the bound limits. If this event is deterministic, they can be projected. It is necessary to determine the controllability of this event, in order to assign this to the corresponding set, , controllable, uncontrollable, observable and unobservable set of events. Find optimal trajectories in order to minimise some cost function is the goal of the modelling procedure. Mathematical model for the system allows the user to apply mathematical techniques over this expression. These possibilities are, to minimise a specific cost function, to obtain optimal controllers and to approximate a specific trajectory. The combination of the Dynamic Programming with Bellman Principle of optimality, give us the procedure to solve the minimum time trajectory for Hybrid systems. The problem is greater when there exists interaction between adjacent states. In Hybrid systems the problem is to determine the partial set points to be applied at the local models. Optimal controller can be implemented in each local model in order to assure the minimisation of the local costs. The solution of this problem needs to give us the trajectory to follow the system. Trajectory marked by a set of set points to force the system to passing over them. Several ways are possible to drive the system from the Starting point Xi to the End point Xf. Different ways are interesting in: dynamic sense, minimum states, approximation at set points, etc. These ways need to be safe and viable and RchW. And only one of them must to be applied, normally the best, which minimises the proposed cost function. A Reachable Way, this means the controllable way and safe, will be evaluated in order to obtain which one minimises the cost function. Contribution of this work is a complete framework to work with the majority Hybrid systems, the procedures to model, control and supervise are defined and explained and its use is demonstrated. Also explained is the procedure to model the systems to be analysed for automatic verification. Great improvements were obtained by using this methodology in comparison to using other piecewise linear approximations. It is demonstrated in particular cases this methodology can provide best approximation. The most important contribution of this work, is the Alpha approximation for non-linear systems with high dynamics While this kind of process is not typical, but in this case the Alpha approximation is the best linear approximation to use, and give a compact representation.

Modelling the global coastal ocean

Shelf and coastal seas are regions of exceptionally high biological productivity, high rates of biogeochemical cycling and immense socio-economic importance. They are, however, poorly represented by the present generation of Earth system models, both in terms of resolution and process representation. Hence, these models cannot be used to elucidate the role of the coastal ocean in global biogeochemical cycles and the effects global change (both direct anthropogenic and climatic) are having on them. Here, we present a system for simulating all the coastal regions around the world (the Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System) in a systematic and practical fashion. It is based on automatically generating multiple nested model domains, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System coupled to the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model. Preliminary results from the system are presented. These demonstrate the viability of the concept, and we discuss the prospects for using the system to explore key areas of global change in shelf seas, such as their role in the carbon cycle and climate change effects on fisheries.

A review of dissolved oxygen modelling techniques for lowland rivers

This review introduces the methods used to simulate the processes affecting dissolved oxygen (DO) in lowland rivers. The important processes are described and this provides a modelling framework to describe those processes in the context of a mass-balance model. The process equations that are introduced all require (reaction) rate parameters and a variety of common procedures for identifying those parameters are reviewed. This is important because there is a wide range of estimation techniques for many of the parameters. These different techniques elicit different estimates of the parameter value and so there is the potential for a significant uncertainty in the model's inputs and therefore in the output too. Finally, the data requirements for modelling DO in lowland rivers are summarised on the basis of modelling the processes described in this review using a mass-balance model. This is reviewed with regard to what data are available and from where they might be obtained. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Human exposure modelling for chemical risk assessment: a review of current approaches and research and policy implications

A wide variety of exposure models are currently employed for health risk assessments. Individual models have been developed to meet the chemical exposure assessment needs of Government, industry and academia. These existing exposure models can be broadly categorised according to the following types of exposure source: environmental, dietary, consumer product, occupational, and aggregate and cumulative. Aggregate exposure models consider multiple exposure pathways, while cumulative models consider multiple chemicals. In this paper each of these basic types of exposure model are briefly described, along with any inherent strengths or weaknesses, with the UK as a case study. Examples are given of specific exposure models that are currently used, or that have the potential for future use, and key differences in modelling approaches adopted are discussed. The use of exposure models is currently fragmentary in nature. Specific organisations with exposure assessment responsibilities tend to use a limited range of models. The modelling techniques adopted in current exposure models have evolved along distinct lines for the various types of source. In fact different organisations may be using different models for very similar exposure assessment situations. This lack of consistency between exposure modelling practices can make understanding the exposure assessment process more complex, can lead to inconsistency between organisations in how critical modelling issues are addressed (e.g. variability and uncertainty), and has the potential to communicate mixed messages to the general public. Further work should be conducted to integrate the various approaches and models, where possible and regulatory remits allow, to get a coherent and consistent exposure modelling process. We recommend the development of an overall framework for exposure and risk assessment with common approaches and methodology, a screening tool for exposure assessment, collection of better input data, probabilistic modelling, validation of model input and output and a closer working relationship between scientists and policy makers and staff from different Government departments. A much increased effort is required is required in the UK to address these issues. The result will be a more robust, transparent, valid and more comparable exposure and risk assessment process. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling stream and soil water nitrate dynamics during experimentally increased nitrogen deposition in a coniferous forest catchment at Gardsjon, Sweden

Increased atmospheric deposition of inorganic nitrogen (N) may lead to increased leaching of nitrate (NO3-) to surface waters. The mechanisms responsible for, and controls on, this leaching are matters of debate. An experimental N addition has been conducted at Gardsjon, Sweden to determine the magnitude and identify the mechanisms of N leaching from forested catchments within the EU funded project NITREX. The ability of INCA-N, a simple process-based model of catchment N dynamics, to simulate catchment-scale inorganic N dynamics in soil and stream water during the course of the experimental addition is evaluated. Simulations were performed for 1990-2002. Experimental N addition began in 1991. INCA-N was able to successfully reproduce stream and soil water dynamics before and during the experiment. While INCA-N did not correctly simulate the lag between the start of N addition and NO 2 3 breakthrough, the model was able to simulate the state change resulting from increased N deposition. Sensitivity analysis showed that model behaviour was controlled primarily by parameters related to hydrology and vegetation dynamics and secondarily by in-soil processes.

The turnover of organic carbon in subsoils. Part 2. Modelling carbon turnover

A new model, RothPC-1, is described for the turnover of organic C in the top metre of soil. RothPC-1 is a version of RothC-26.3, an earlier model for the turnover of C in topsoils. In RothPC-1 two extra parameters are used to model turnover in the top metre of soil: one, p, which moves organic C down the profile by an advective process, and the other, s, which slows decomposition with depth. RothPC-1 is parameterized and tested using measurements (described in Part 1, this issue) of total organic C and radiocarbon on soil profiles from the Rothamsted long-term field experiments, collected over a period of more than 100 years. RothPC-1 gives fits to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon in the 0-23, 23-46, 46-69 and 69-92 cm layers of soil that are almost all within (or close to) measurement error in two areas of regenerating woodland (Geescroft and Broadbalk Wildernesses) and an area of cultivated land from the Broadbalk Continuous Wheat Experiment. The fits to old grassland (the Park Grass Experiment) are less close. Two other sites that provide the requisite pre- and post-bomb data are also fitted; a prairie Chernozem from Russia and an annual grassland from California. Roth-PC-1 gives a close fit to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon down the Chernozem profile, provided that allowance is made for soil age; with the annual grassland the fit is acceptable in the upper part of the profile, but not in the clay-rich Bt horizon below. Calculations suggest that treating the top metre of soil as a homogeneous unit will greatly overestimate the effects of global warming in accelerating the decomposition of soil C and hence on the enhanced release of CO2 from soil organic matter; more realistic estimates will be obtained from multi-layer models such as RothPC-1.

Evaluating the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient losses at field and catchment scales

A semi-distributed model, INCA, has been developed to determine the fate and distribution of nutrients in terrestrial and aquatic systems. The model simulates nitrogen and phosphorus processes in soils, groundwaters and river systems and can be applied in a semi-distributed manner at a range of scales. In this study, the model has been applied at field to sub-catchment to whole catchment scale to evaluate the behaviour of biosolid-derived losses of P in agricultural systems. It is shown that process-based models such as INCA, applied at a wide range of scales, reproduce field and catchment behaviour satisfactorily. The INCA model can also be used to generate generic information for risk assessment. By adjusting three key variables: biosolid application rates, the hydrological connectivity of the catchment and the initial P-status of the soils within the model, a matrix of P loss rates can be generated to evaluate the behaviour of the model and, hence, of the catchment system. The results, which indicate the sensitivity of the catchment to flow paths, to application rates and to initial soil conditions, have been incorporated into a Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM).

Modelling the inorganic nitrogen behaviour in a small Mediterranean forested catchment, Fuirosos (Catalonia)

The aim of this work was to couple a nitrogen (N) sub-model to already existent hydrological lumped (LU4-N) and semi-distributed (LU4-R-N and SD4-R-N) conceptual models, to improve our understanding of the factors and processes controlling nitrogen cycling and losses in Mediterranean catchments. The N model adopted provides a simplified conceptualization of the soil nitrogen cycle considering mineralization, nitrification, immobilization, denitrification, plant uptake, and ammonium adsorption/desorption. It also includes nitrification and denitrification in the shallow perched aquifer. We included a soil moisture threshold for all the considered soil biological processes. The results suggested that all the nitrogen processes were highly influenced by the rain episodes and that soil microbial processes occurred in pulses stimulated by soil moisture increasing after rain. Our simulation highlighted the riparian zone as a possible source of nitrate, especially after the summer drought period, but it can also act as an important sink of nitrate due to denitrification, in particular during the wettest period of the year. The riparian zone was a key element to simulate the catchment nitrate behaviour. The lumped LU4-N model (which does not include the riparian zone) could not be validated, while both the semi-distributed LU4-R-N and SD4-R-N model (which include the riparian zone) gave satisfactory results for the calibration process and acceptable results for the temporal validation process.

Very large inverse problems in atmosphere and ocean modelling

For the very large nonlinear dynamical systems that arise in a wide range of physical, biological and environmental problems, the data needed to initialize a numerical forecasting model are seldom available. To generate accurate estimates of the expected states of the system, both current and future, the technique of ‘data assimilation’ is used to combine the numerical model predictions with observations of the system measured over time. Assimilation of data is an inverse problem that for very large-scale systems is generally ill-posed. In four-dimensional variational assimilation schemes, the dynamical model equations provide constraints that act to spread information into data sparse regions, enabling the state of the system to be reconstructed accurately. The mechanism for this is not well understood. Singular value decomposition techniques are applied here to the observability matrix of the system in order to analyse the critical features in this process. Simplified models are used to demonstrate how information is propagated from observed regions into unobserved areas. The impact of the size of the observational noise and the temporal position of the observations is examined. The best signal-to-noise ratio needed to extract the most information from the observations is estimated using Tikhonov regularization theory. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

PRISM and ENES: a European approach to Earth system modelling

Europe's widely distributed climate modelling expertise, now organized in the European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES), is both a strength and a challenge. Recognizing this, the European Union's Program for Integrated Earth System Modelling (PRISM) infrastructure project aims at designing a flexible and friendly user environment to assemble, run and post-process Earth System models. PRISM was started in December 2001 with a duration of three years. This paper presents the major stages of PRISM, including: (1) the definition and promotion of scientific and technical standards to increase component modularity; (2) the development of an end-to-end software environment (graphical user interface, coupling and I/O system, diagnostics, visualization) to launch, monitor and analyse complex Earth system models built around state-of-art community component models (atmosphere, ocean, atmospheric chemistry, ocean bio-chemistry, sea-ice, land-surface); and (3) testing and quality standards to ensure high-performance computing performance on a variety of platforms. PRISM is emerging as a core strategic software infrastructure for building the European research area in Earth system sciences. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.