Nominations across gender: An empirical investigation of Brazilian municipal elections

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A diabetes: principais parâmetros para o controlo da diabetes

RESUMO: A Diabetes Mellitus é uma doença metabólica crónica, com deficiência a nível do metabolismo dos hidratos de carbono, lípidos e proteínas, resultante de deficiências na secreção ou ação da insulina, ou de ambas, que quando não tratada antecipadamente e de modo conveniente, pode ter consequências muito graves. Dado a incidência a nível mundial da Diabetes Mellitus, torna-se de elevada importância avaliar toda a sua envolvência e estudar bem quais os critérios a ter em consideração. Este trabalho propõe-se estudar para além dos parâmetros bioquímicos relacionados com a doença - Glicose e Hemoglobina Glicada A1c (HbA1c), analisar os resultados dos últimos cinco anos (2008-2012) dos ensaios interlaboratoriais do PNAEQ, do Departamento de Epidemiologia, do Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge. Foram também analisadas as metodologias utilizadas e as variações interlaboratoriais, de forma a entender qual ou quais são os parâmetros mais adequados para o seu diagnóstico e controlo. Este estudo utilizou a população de laboratórios portugueses, públicos e privados, de Portugal Continental e Ilhas, um laboratório de Angola e outro de Macau que se inscreveram no PNAEQ nestes cinco anos, sendo a amostra composta pelo n.º de participações. No programa de Química Clinica foram distribuídas 38 amostras e no programa de HbA1c foram distribuídas 22 amostras. Para a glicose, o nível de desempenho nos ensaios é na globalidade das amostras de Excelente, no entanto verifica-se que sempre que a concentração da amostra é de nível patológico, que a maioria dos ensaios o desempenho foi inferior – Bom. O método de eleição e com CV% mais baixos foi o método da hexoquinase. Para a HbA1c, o nível de desempenho nos ensaios é na globalidade das amostras de Excelente. O método de eleição e com CV% mais baixos foi o método de HPLC. O CV% para a glicose ronda desde 2010 a 2012, os 3% e para a HbA1c foi de aproximadamente 4,0% em 2012. A HbA1c tem mostrado ser uma ferramenta muito útil, importante e robusta na monitorização da Diabetes, sendo hoje em dia quase sempre requisitada em análises de rotina a diabéticos de modo a prevenir complicações que possam vir a acorrer. No futuro poderá ser um importante, senão o parâmetro de futuro, para o diagnóstico da Diabetes, no entanto, mesmo já tendo sido muito trabalhada a sua padronização, ainda existem questões por responder como quais são na realidade todos os seus interferentes, qual a verdadeira relação da HbA1c com a glicose média estimada, em todas as populações e com estudos epidemiológicos. Também a própria educação do diabético e clínico deve ser aprimorada, pelo que neste momento as PTGO e os doseamentos de glicose em jejum devem ser utilizados e encontrando-se a Norma da DGS N.º 033/2011 de acordo com as necessidades e com o estado da arte deste parâmetro. A implementação da glicose média estimada será uma mais-valia na monitorização dos diabéticos pelo que deverá ser uma das prioridades a ter em conta no futuro desta padronização, uniformizando a decisão clinica baseada nela e minimizando a dificuldade de interpretação de resultados de laboratório para laboratório. --------------ABSTRACT: Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disease, with a deficit in the metabolism of carbohydrates, lipids and proteins, resulting from deficiencies in insulin secretion or action, or both, which if, when not early treated in a proper way, may result in very serious consequences. Given the worldwide incidence of diabetes mellitus, it is highly important to evaluate all its background and study specifically all the criteria to take into consideration. The aim of this thesis is to study and evaluate beyond the biochemical parameters related to the disease - Glucose and Glycated Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), analyze the results of the last five years (2008-2012) of the PNAEQ interlaboratorial tests, in the Department of Epidemiology of National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge. It is also intended to analyze the methodologies used and the interlaboratorial variations, in order to understand the most suitable parameters for the diagnosis and control. This study was based in a population of Portuguese laboratories, public and private, of Portugal mainland and islands, a laboratory of Angola and other from Macau, who enrolled in PNAEQ in these five years, and the sample was composed by the n. º of holdings. In the Clinical Chemistry Program there were distributed 38 samples and in the program HbA1c were distributed 22 samples. For glucose, the level of performance in the total nº of the samples was Excellent; however, it was found that when the concentration level of the sample was pathological, in most of the tests the performance was Good. The most preferred method with the lowest CV% is the hexokinase method. For the HbA1c, as a whole, the samples’ tests were Excellent, at the level of performance. The method of election with the lower CV% was the HPLC. The CV% for glucose was around 3%, from 2010 to 2012 and the HbA1c was approximately 4.0% in 2012. The HbA1c method has demonstrated to be a very useful tool, important and robust for monitoring diabetes, being nowadays, almost always required in routine analysis to prevent future complications. In the future it may be an important parameter, if not the most important, for the diagnosis of diabetes. However, despite it has already been standardized, there are still some questions that need to be answered, such as, which are in fact all their interferences, which is the true connection of HbA1c, when compared with the estimated average glucose, in all populations and epidemiological studies. Moreover, the education of the patient and the doctor concerning diabetes should be improved. Nowadays, the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) and fasting glucose determinations should be used and, the needs and the state of the art of this parameter, should be in accordance with the Standard DGS N. º 033/2011. The Implementation of the estimated average glucose will be an added value in monitoring diabetics and, therefore, should be a priority to consider in its future standardization and clinical decision based on it, will be uniform and the difficulty of interpreting results from laboratory to laboratory will be minimal.

Voting and Peer Effects: Experimental Evidence from Mozambique*

Voter education campaigns often aim to increase voter particpation and political accountability. We follow randomized interventions implemented nationwide during the 2009 Mozambican elections using a free newspaper, leaflets, and text messaging. We investigate whether treatment effects were transmitted through social networks (kinship and chatting) and geographical proximity. For individuals personally targeted by the campaign, we estimate the reinforcement effect of proximity to other targeted individuals. For untargeted individuals, we estimate the diffusion of the campaign depending on a proximity to targeted individuals. We find evidence for both effects, similar across the different treatments and across the different connectedness measures. We observe that the treatments worked through the networks by raising the levels of information and interest about the election, in line with the average treatment effects of voter education on voter participation. We interpret this result as a free riding effect, likely to occur for costly actions

The impact of national and international observers in democratic elections: A randomized control trial from the Mozambican elections of 2009

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Health expenditures in the OECD: A political economy analysis using structural breaks

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of reelection in Portuguese municipal elections

This Work Project investigates the determinants of reelection using data on the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1976-2009. We implement a logit fixed effect model to control for the municipalities’ unobserved characteristics that remain constant over time. Political variables, such as the vote share of the incumbent’s party in previous election, the number of mayor’s consecutive mandates and abstention rate, are found to be relevant in explaining incumbent’s reelection. Moreover, as to the mayor’s individual characteristics, age and education contribute to explain reelection prospects. We also provide weak evidence that a higher degree of fiscal autonomy increases political turnover and that the good economic prospects of the municipality positively affect reelection. Finally, the residents’ level of education and the size of the municipal population have an explanatory power on mayor’s reelection. We perform several robustness checks to confirm these results.

Relatório de estágio no Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa

This report is the outcome of an internship that took place in Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa and its completion is an essential part of the path towards obtaining the Master’s Degree in Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa. This report has been structured in two stages – firstly, the presentation of the Centro de Arbitragem Comercial, focusing on its field of expertise, organic structure, principles and advantages. Then, the description of the activities developed within the Secretariat over the several stages of the arbitration procedure – since the reception of the arbitration requirement in institutional proceedings, terms of reference in ad hoc procedures, through the monitoring of the arbitral tribunal sessions (preliminary hearings, submission of evidence and final allegations) and the notification of the arbitration award. The second stage of this report is related to the description of the functions and powers of the President of Centro de Arbitragem Comercial. Firstly, it defines those powers by analyzing the statutes and rules of proceedings of the Centro de Arbitragem, drawing comparisons between the above mention and the rules of proceedings of others arbitral institutional centres, some of them are international references. The report assesses and describes the presidential powers, such as: configuration and composition of the arbitral tribunal (including arbitrator’s replacements, excuses and refusals); deadline extensions; determination of procedural rules and decision-making on any procedural incidents which arise before the constitution of the arbitral tribunal; definition of arbitration costs and fees; joinder of parties and consolidation of proceedings admission; and appointment of an emergency arbitrator. Lastly, this report analyzes some decisions delivered by the President in the respective institutional procedures which took place in the Centre.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

US fiscal dynamics in political perspective

Given the importance of fiscal balance for ensuring a sustainable fiscal policy, we conduct an empirical examination of fiscal dynamics in the United States in response to unsustainable budget deviations. We concentrate on the role of political factors, namely the Republican - Democrat presidential divide, in determining the fiscal response to budget disequilibria. Making use of an asymmetric cointegration framework, we explore politically motivated fiscal asymmetries in the US, from Eisenhower to Obama. We conclude that political factors such as the government’s political quadrant and the timing of elections are important determinants of the fiscal response to unsustainable budget deviations.

Electoral observation: Evidence from Mozambique

Electoral fraud is a common problem in young democracies. Election observers constitute one possible remedy. Yet, quantitative evidence of the exact effects of observers is scarce. Data on the random assignment of observers during Mozambique’s 2009 general elections is used to estimate the impact that observers have on ballot fraud. It is shown that the presence of national observers reduces high levels of turnout and manipulation of ballots. The findings contribute to the understanding of the behavior of politicians and have implications for the implementation of observer missions.

Relatório de estágio curricular no Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria portuguesa

This report is the outcome of an internship that took place in Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa and its completion is an essential part of the path towards obtaining the Master’s Degree in Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa. This report has been structured in two stages – firstly, the presentation of the Centro de Arbitragem Comercial, focusing on its field of expertise, organic structure, principles and advantages. Then, the description of the activities developed within the Secretariat over the several stages of the arbitration procedure – since the reception of the arbitration requirement in institutional proceedings, terms of reference in ad hoc procedures, through the monitoring of the arbitral tribunal sessions (preliminary hearings, submission of evidence and final allegations) and the notification of the arbitration award. The second stage of this report is related to the description of the functions and powers of the President of Centro de Arbitragem Comercial. Firstly, it defines those powers by analyzing the statutes and rules of proceedings of the Centro de Arbitragem, drawing comparisons between the above mention and the rules of proceedings of others arbitral institutional centres, some of them are international references. The report assesses and describes the presidential powers, such as: configuration and composition of the arbitral tribunal (including arbitrator’s replacements, excuses and refusals); deadline extensions; determination of procedural rules and decision-making on any procedural incidents which arise before the constitution of the arbitral tribunal; definition of arbitration costs and fees; joinder of parties and consolidation of proceedings admission; and appointment of an emergency arbitrator. Lastly, this report analyzes some decisions delivered by the President in the respective institutional procedures which took place in the Centre.

Portugal no conselho de segurança das Nações Unidas

The United Nations is an international organization that was created after World War II, whose main objective is to promote cooperation, social and economic development, as well as to ensure international peace and security. The Member States are key actors in the international political system. For that reason they have strategic interests in what regards taking part in the international organizations. They see it as an opportunity to achieve those goals. The United Nations Security Council has a very important role in preserving international peace and security. It is the organ of the United Nations in which fifteen member states are represented: five permanently and ten non-permanently, being that the latter are elected for two years. Participating in the Security Council is a unique opportunity for middle powers like Portugal to promote their national interests and to increase their international visibility. In addition, they can contribute to the world’s destiny during their mandate period. Portugal has exercised his third term as a non-permanent member of the Security Council in 2011-2012 biennium, defeating Canada after a successful campaign carried out by the Portuguese diplomacy. This study analyses the participation of Portugal in the Security Council´s 2011-2012 biennium. It will focus the application process and election and the role of Portugal in the Security Council, especially in its the presidency and its intervention in the presidency of the Sanctions Committee on Libya. Its aim is to show the impact of Portuguese participation in the Security Council for international peace and security, as well as the geopolitical importance for the country of being part of the Security Council.

As peculiaridades da democratização da região do Cáucaso do Sul no contexto da Política Europeia de Vizinhança

O período após o colapso da União Soviética foi o tempo da procura de novas identidades na nova realidade e de escolha de novos parceiros e aliados, o tempo da construção de novos estados e de formulação das regras e normas nacionais. Após o desmoronamento da ideologia soviética - um facto reconhecido oficialmente durante o período da Perestroika –, as pessoas sentiram uma necessidade de preencher o vácuo ideológico e desenvolver uma nova identidade. Foi proclamada a rejeição da estrutura política administrativa herdada da União Soviética e do sistema de economia planificada, e desenvolvida a tendência para a construção do estado democrático fundado numa economia de mercado. As expectativas relativas às transformações no período pós-soviético estavam relacionadas com o Ocidente (EUA e UE), e a construção do estado soberano foi fundada em modelos ocidentais de estado de direito, ‘boa governança’ e a economia de mercado. A UE desempenhou um papel importante na democratização dos estados da região do Sul do Cáucaso através de vários projetos e programas bilaterais e multilaterais no âmbito da Política Europeia de Vizinhança e da Parceria Oriental. Embora as reformas democráticas tenham sido realizadas com vista ao estabelecimento de uma Constituição democrática, à implementação de eleições democráticas e ao desenvolvimento da sociedade civil, fortaleceram, também, ainda mais, a natureza autoritária do poder, impediram a criação de um estado de direito, reforçaram violação dos direitos e das liberdades humanas. (NODIYA, 2003: 30; BAKHMAN, 2003: 17; BADALOV, 2003: 20). Deste modo, o processo da promoção da democracia através das reformas nos três estados do Sul do Cáucaso conduziu à criação de estados de “conteúdo autocrático misto, mas de forma democrática” (CHETERYAN, 2003: 41). Embora seja possível identificar as semelhanças entre os três estados da região do Sul do Cáucaso nas reformas do processo de desenvolvimento, os métodos e meios de implementação de reformas nas realidades dos estados regionais pela administração nacional foram bastante diferentes, por razões associadas às especificidades de cada um (DELCOUR e WOLCZUK, 2013: 3). Cada país é caracterizado pelas suas peculiaridades ao nível da situação geopolítica e diversidade do potencial económico – fatores que definem a trajetória política e económica do estado no período pós-soviético e, em certa medida, influenciam o modo como se desenvolvem as relações com a UE e, portanto, o processo de adoção das reformas e a sua introdução a nível nacional.

Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: in depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures

NIPE - WP 02/2016

A Reorganização Administrativa do Território das Freguesias 2013 enquanto determinante de voto: estudo caso do Concelho de Braga e Guimarães

Dissertação de mestrado em Administração Pública