953 resultados para Prediction Models for Air Pollution
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ABSTRACT Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) is a fast and cheap alternative for soil clay, but needs further investigation to assess the scope of application. The purpose of the study was to develop a linear regression model to predict clay content from DRS data, to classify the soils into three textural classes, similar to those defined by a regulation of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. The DRS data of 412 soil samples, from the 0.0-0.5 m layer, from different locations in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, were measured at wavelengths of 350 to 2,500 nm in the laboratory. The fitting of the linear regression model developed to predict soil clay content from the DRS data was based on a R2 value of 0.74 and 0.75, with a RMSE of 7.82 and 8.51 % for the calibration and validation sets, respectively. Soil texture classification had an overall accuracy of 79.0 % (calibration) and 80.9 % (validation). The heterogeneity of soil samples affected the performance of the prediction models. Future studies should consider a previous classification of soil samples in different groups by soil type, parent material and/or sampling region.
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After some success with a small asphalt pavement recycling project in 1975, Kossuth County, Iowa programmed a much larger undertaking during the 1976 construction season. The work performed in 1975 indicated that a quality product could be produced with some modifications to conventional equipment. As anticipated , the major problem encountered was the excessive air pollution created during the heating and mixing process. As part of its 1976 road program, Kossuth County developed plans for recycling sixteen miles of existing asphalt pavements using the "hot mix" recycling process. One project, ten miles in length, was selected by the Federal Highway Authority as part of "Demonstration Project No. 39, Recycling Asphalt Pavements." The FHWA provided a $29,500 grant t o the project to be used for project testing and evaluation. Cooperation and input into the work proposed for 1976 was received from many sources. The people and organizations contributing were the Federal Highway Authority, the Iowa Department of Environmental Quality, the Federal Environmental Protection Agency, several contractors, and personnel from the Kossuth County Engineer's Office.
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In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered numerous landslides (mainly debris flows) in Honduras and Nicaragua, resulting in a high death toll and in considerable damage to property. The potential application of relatively simple and affordable spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping in developing countries was studied. Our attention was focused on a region in NW Nicaragua, one of the most severely hit places during the Mitch event. A landslide map was obtained at 1:10 000 scale in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment from the interpretation of aerial photographs and detailed field work. In this map the terrain failure zones were distinguished from the areas within the reach of the mobilized materials. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 20 m×20 m of pixel size was also employed in the study area. A comparative analysis of the terrain failures caused by Hurricane Mitch and a selection of 4 terrain factors extracted from the DEM which, contributed to the terrain instability, was carried out. Land propensity to failure was determined with the aid of a bivariate analysis and GIS tools in a terrain failure susceptibility map. In order to estimate the areas that could be affected by the path or deposition of the mobilized materials, we considered the fact that under intense rainfall events debris flows tend to travel long distances following the maximum slope and merging with the drainage network. Using the TauDEM extension for ArcGIS software we generated automatically flow lines following the maximum slope in the DEM starting from the areas prone to failure in the terrain failure susceptibility map. The areas crossed by the flow lines from each terrain failure susceptibility class correspond to the runout susceptibility classes represented in a runout susceptibility map. The study of terrain failure and runout susceptibility enabled us to obtain a spatial prediction for landslides, which could contribute to landslide risk mitigation.
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This study investigated the contribution of sources and establishment characteristics, on the exposure to fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) in the non-smoking sections of bars, cafes, and restaurants in central Zurich. PM(2.5)-exposure was determined with a nephelometer. A random sample of hospitality establishments was investigated on all weekdays, from morning until midnight. Each visit lasted 30 min. Numbers of smokers and other sources, such as candles and cooking processes, were recorded, as were seats, open windows, and open doors. Ambient air pollution data were obtained from public authorities. Data were analysed using robust MM regression. Over 14 warm, sunny days, 102 establishments were measured. Average establishment PM(2.5) concentrations were 64.7 microg/m(3) (s.d. = 73.2 microg/m(3), 30-min maximum 452.2 microg/m(3)). PM(2.5) was significantly associated with the number of smokers, percentage of seats occupied by smokers, and outdoor PM. Each smoker increased PM(2.5) on average by 15 microg/m(3). No associations were found with other sources, open doors or open windows. Bars had more smoking guests and showed significantly higher concentrations than restaurants and cafes. Smokers were the most important PM(2.5)-source in hospitality establishments, while outdoor PM defined the baseline. Concentrations are expected to be even higher during colder, unpleasant times of the year. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Smokers and ambient air pollution are the most important sources of fine airborne particulate matter (PM(2.5)) in the non-smoking sections of bars, restaurants, and cafes. Other sources do not significantly contribute to PM(2.5)-levels, while opening doors and windows is not an efficient means of removing pollutants. First, this demonstrates the impact that even a few smokers can have in affecting particle levels. Second, it implies that creating non-smoking sections, and using natural ventilation, is not sufficient to bring PM(2.5) to levels that imply no harm for employees and non-smoking clients. [Authors]
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.
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Résumé Objectifs : Alors que de nombreuses études suggèrent que l'exposition au tabagisme passif représente un danger pour la santé des non-fumeurs, la plupart des études s'intéressant aux effets néfastes du tabagisme passif sur la santé respiratoire de sujets adultes étaient des études transversales. Les résultats d'études longitudinales restent rares et controversés. Le but de notre étude était de mesurer les effets d'une exposition antérieure au tabagisme passif sur l'évolution journalière de quatre catégories de symptômes respiratoires dans une étude journalière incluant des adultes n'ayant jamais fumé. Méthodes : Dans le cadre de l'étude SAPALDIA (Swiss study on air pollution and lung diseases in adults), nous avons mené une étude de cohorte prospective et multicentrique. 1421 adultes n'ayant jamais fumé étaient suivis durant deux ans sur la base de questionnaires journaliers remplis durant une à six périodes de quatre semaines répartis sur deux années (1992-1993). Nous avons ensuite déterminé le risque relatif (RR) de développer ou de s'amender de symptômes respiratoires en association avec une exposition antérieure au tabagisme passif. Résultats : Dans un échantillon d'adultes n'ayant jamais fumé, nous avons trouvé une association entre une exposition antérieure au tabagisme passif et une évolution péjorée de tous les symptômes respiratoires étudiés, montrant un risque relatif de 1.09 à 1.21 de développer les symptômes respiratoires, et un risque relatif de 0.91 à 0.83 de s'amender de ces symptômes. Une exposition au tabagisme passif sur la place de travail était associée à une diminution de la durée des intervalles libres sans symptômes bronchitiques (RR 1.33) et asthmatiques (RR 1.27), alors qu'une exposition uniquement en-dehors de la place de travail était associée avec un allongement de la durée des épisodes avec symptômes respiratoires des voies aériennes hautes ou basses (RR 0.78-0.77). Conclusion : Nos résultats suggèrent que l'exposition au tabagisme passif a des effets néfastes sur la dynamique journalière symptômes respiratoires, et que l'importance et le type d'effet sont influencés par le lieu d'exposition.
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L’objecte d’aquest estudi consisteix en determinar la influència de l’ús del biodièsel en:1.- Les variacions en comparació amb el combustible convencional(gasoil A) en les emissions de gasos i partícules contaminants enmotors de vehicles pesants de transport de mercaderies.2.- Les variacions en comparació amb el combustible convencional(gasoil A) en el nivell de so emès per motors de vehicles pesants detransport de mercaderies.3.- Els canvis en el consum de combustible en vehicles pesants encomparació amb la utilització de gasoil A.4.- Els problemes tècnics observats en motors de vehicles pesants detransport de mercaderies durant un període de funcionament elevat
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The main goal of this paper is to obtain a granular material formulated with Municipal Solid Waste Incinerarion (MSWI) bottom ash (BA) and air pollution control (APC) ash to be used as secondary building material. Previously, an optimum concrete mixture using both MSWI residues as aggregates was formulated. A compromise between the environmental behaviour and the economy of the process was considered. Unconfined compressive strength and abrasion resistance values were measured in order to evaluate the mechanical properties. From these results, the granular mixture was not suited for certain applications owing to the high BA/APC content and low cement percentages used to reduce the costs of the final product. Nevertheless, the leaching test performed showed that the concentrations of all heavy metals were below the limits established by the current Catalan legislation for their reutilization. Therefore, the material studied might be mainly used in embankments, where high mechanical properties are not needed and environmental safety is assured.
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BACKGROUND: Particulate air pollution is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke. Although the precise mechanisms underlying this association are still unclear, the induction of systemic inflammation following particle inhalation represents a plausible mechanistic pathway.¦METHODS: We used baseline data from the CoLaus Study including 6183 adult participants residing in Lausanne, Switzerland. We analyzed the association of short-term exposure to PM10 (on the day of examination visit) with continuous circulating serum levels of high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin 1-beta (IL-1β), interleukin 6 (IL-6), and tumor-necrosis-factor alpha (TNF-α) by robust linear regressions, controlling for potential confounding factors and assessing effect modification.¦RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, for every 10 μg/m3 elevation in PM10, IL-1ß increased by 0.034 (95 % confidence interval, 0.007-0.060) pg/mL, IL-6 by 0.036 (0.015-0.057) pg/mL, and TNF-α by 0.024 (0.013-0.035) pg/mL, whereas no significant association was found with hs-CRP levels.¦CONCLUSIONS: Short-term exposure to PM10 was positively associated with higher levels of circulating IL-1ß, IL-6 and TNF-α in the adult general population. This positive association suggests a link between air pollution and cardiovascular risk, although further studies are needed to clarify the mechanistic pathway linking PM10 to cardiovascular risk.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of heat waves on the evolution of bud dormancy, in apple trees with contrasting chilling requirements. Twigs of 'Castel Gala' and 'Royal Gala' were collected in orchards in Papanduva, state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, and were exposed to constant (3°C) or alternating (3 and 15°C for 12/12 hours) temperature, combined with zero, one or two days a week at 25°C. Two additional treatments were evaluated: constant temperature (3°C), with a heat wave of seven days at 25°C, in the beginning or in the middle of the experimental period. Periodically, part of the twigs was transferred to 25°C for daily budburst evaluation of apical and lateral buds. Endodormancy (dormancy induced by cold) was overcome with less than 330 chilling hours (CH) of constant cold in 'Castel Gala' and less than 618 CH in 'Royal Gala'. A daily 15°C-temperature cycle did not affect the endodormancy process. Heat waves during endodormancy resulted in an increased CH to achieve bud requirements. The negative effect of high temperature depended on the lasting of this condition. Chilling was partly cancelled during dormancy when the heat wave lasted 36 continuous hours or more. Therefore, budburst prediction models need adjustments, mainly for regions with mild and irregular winters, such as those of Southern Brazil.
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ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Prospective epidemiologic studies have consistently shown that levels of circulating androgens in postmenopausal women are positively associated with breast cancer risk. However, data in premenopausal women are limited. METHODS: A case-control study nested within the New York University Women's Health Study was conducted. A total of 356 cases (276 invasive and 80 in situ) and 683 individually-matched controls were included. Matching variables included age and date, phase, and day of menstrual cycle at blood donation. Testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were measured using direct immunoassays. Free testosterone was calculated. RESULTS: Premenopausal serum testosterone and free testosterone concentrations were positively associated with breast cancer risk. In models adjusted for known risk factors of breast cancer, the odds ratios for increasing quintiles of testosterone were 1.0 (reference), 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.9 to 2.3), 1.2 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.9), 1.4 (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.3) and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.9; Ptrend = 0.04), and for free testosterone were 1.0 (reference), 1.2 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.8), 1.5 (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.3), 1.5 (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.3), and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.8, Ptrend = 0.01). A marginally significant positive association was observed with androstenedione (P = 0.07), but no association with DHEAS or SHBG. Results were consistent in analyses stratified by tumor type (invasive, in situ), estrogen receptor status, age at blood donation, and menopausal status at diagnosis. Intra-class correlation coefficients for samples collected from 0.8 to 5.3 years apart (median 2 years) in 138 cases and 268 controls were greater than 0.7 for all biomarkers except for androstenedione (0.57 in controls). CONCLUSIONS: Premenopausal concentrations of testosterone and free testosterone are associated with breast cancer risk. Testosterone and free testosterone measurements are also highly reliable (that is, a single measurement is reflective of a woman's average level over time). Results from other prospective studies are consistent with our results. The impact of including testosterone or free testosterone in breast cancer risk prediction models for women between the ages of 40 and 50 years should be assessed. Improving risk prediction models for this age group could help decision making regarding both screening and chemoprevention of breast cancer.
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Short-term exposure to ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm were found to be positively associated with blood pressure. Yet, little information exists regarding the association between particles and circadian rhythm of blood pressure. Hence, we analyzed the association of exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm on the day of examination and ≤7 days before with ambulatory blood pressure and with sodium excretion in 359 adults from the general population using multiple linear regression. After controlling for potential confounders, a 10-µg/m3 increase in particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm levels was associated with nighttime systolic blood pressure (β=1.32 mm Hg 95% CI, 0.06-2.58 mm Hg at lag 0; P=0.04), nighttime diastolic blood pressure (0.72 mm Hg 95% CI, 0.03-1.42 mm Hg at lag 2; P=0.04), nocturnal systolic blood pressure dipping (-0.96 mm Hg 95% CI, -1.89 to -0.03 mm Hg at lag 0; P=0.044), and daytime urinary sodium excretion (-0.05 log-mmol/min 95% CI, -0.10 to -0.01 log-mmol/min at lag 0; P=0.027) but not with nighttime sodium excretion. The associations with blood pressure rapidly diminished with increasing lag days, and the associations with daytime sodium excretion were maximal with particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm in exposures 2 to 5 days before. The associations of short-term increases in particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm with higher nighttime blood pressure and blunted systolic blood pressure dipping were preceded by associations with reduced ability of the kidney to excrete sodium during daytime. The underlying mechanism linking air pollution to increased cardiovascular risk may include disturbed circadian rhythms of renal sodium handling and blood pressure.