Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

Complex visual hallucinations and attentional performance in eye disease and dementia: a test of the Perception and Attention Deficit model

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to test the prediction from the Perception and Attention Deficit model of complex visual hallucinations (CVH) that impairments in visual attention and perception are key risk factors for complex hallucinations in eye disease and dementia. METHODS Two studies ran concurrently to investigate the relationship between CVH and impairments in perception (picture naming using the Graded Naming Test) and attention (Stroop task plus a novel Imagery task). The studies were in two populations-older patients with dementia (n = 28) and older people with eye disease (n = 50) with a shared control group (n = 37). The same methodology was used in both studies, and the North East Visual Hallucinations Inventory was used to identify CVH. RESULTS A reliable relationship was found for older patients with dementia between impaired perceptual and attentional performance and CVH. A reliable relationship was not found in the population of people with eye disease. CONCLUSIONS The results add to previous research that object perception and attentional deficits are associated with CVH in dementia, but that risk factors for CVH in eye disease are inconsistent, suggesting that dynamic rather than static impairments in attentional processes may be key in this population.

Pharmacogenetics-based population pharmacokinetic analysis of etravirine in HIV-1 infected individuals

Objectives: Etravirine (ETV) is metabolized by cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A, 2C9, and 2C19. Metabolites are glucuronidated by uridine diphosphate glucuronosyltransferases (UGT). To identify the potential impact of genetic and non-genetic factors involved in ETV metabolism, we carried out a two-step pharmacogenetics-based population pharmacokinetic study in HIV-1 infected individuals. Materials and methods: The study population included 144 individuals contributing 289 ETV plasma concentrations and four individuals contributing 23 ETV plasma concentrations collected in a rich sampling design. Genetic variants [n=125 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] in 34 genes with a predicted role in ETV metabolism were selected. A first step population pharmacokinetic model included non-genetic and known genetic factors (seven SNPs in CYP2C, one SNP in CYP3A5) as covariates. Post-hoc individual ETV clearance (CL) was used in a second (discovery) step, in which the effect of the remaining 98 SNPs in CYP3A, P450 cytochrome oxidoreductase (POR), nuclear receptor genes, and UGTs was investigated. Results: A one-compartment model with zero-order absorption best characterized ETV pharmacokinetics. The average ETV CL was 41 (l/h) (CV 51.1%), the volume of distribution was 1325 l, and the mean absorption time was 1.2 h. The administration of darunavir/ritonavir or tenofovir was the only non-genetic covariate influencing ETV CL significantly, resulting in a 40% [95% confidence interval (CI): 13–69%] and a 42% (95% CI: 17–68%) increase in ETV CL, respectively. Carriers of rs4244285 (CYP2C19*2) had 23% (8–38%) lower ETV CL. Co-administered antiretroviral agents and genetic factors explained 16% of the variance in ETV concentrations. None of the SNPs in the discovery step influenced ETV CL. Conclusion: ETV concentrations are highly variable, and co-administered antiretroviral agents and genetic factors explained only a modest part of the interindividual variability in ETV elimination. Opposing effects of interacting drugs effectively abrogate genetic influences on ETV CL, and vice-versa.

Optimizing the size of the area surveyed for monitoring a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) population in the Swiss Alps by means of photographic capture-recapture

We studied the influence of surveyed area size on density estimates by means of camera-trapping in a low-density felid population (1-2 individuals/100 km(2) ). We applied non-spatial capture-recapture (CR) and spatial CR (SCR) models for Eurasian lynx during winter 2005/2006 in the northwestern Swiss Alps by sampling an area divided into 5 nested plots ranging from 65 to 760 km(2) . CR model density estimates (95% CI) for models M0 and Mh decreased from 2.61 (1.55-3.68) and 3.6 (1.62-5.57) independent lynx/100 km(2) , respectively, in the smallest to 1.20 (1.04-1.35) and 1.26 (0.89-1.63) independent lynx/100 km(2) , respectively, in the largest area surveyed. SCR model density estimates also decreased with increasing sampling area but not significantly. High individual range overlaps in relatively small areas (the edge effect) is the most plausible reason for this positive bias in the CR models. Our results confirm that SCR models are much more robust to changes in trap array size than CR models, thus avoiding overestimation of density in smaller areas. However, when a study is concerned with monitoring population changes, large spatial efforts (area surveyed ≥760 km(2) ) are required to obtain reliable and precise density estimates with these population densities and recapture rates.

The effects of population density on the spread of disease

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^

Behavioral and psychosocial factors associated with sexual risk in a population of crack cocaine users

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relationship between key psychosocial and behavioral components of the Transtheoretical Model and the Theory of Reasoned Action for sexual risk reduction in a population of crack cocaine smokers and sex workers, not in drug treatment. ^ The first study examined the results of an analysis of the association between two principal constructs in the Transtheoretical Model, the processes of change and the stages of change for condom use, in a high risk population. In the analysis of variance for all respondents, the overall F-test revealed that people in different stages have different levels of experiential process use, F(3,317) = 17.79, p = 0.0001 and different levels of behavioral process use, F(3,317) = 28.59, p = .0001. For the experiential processes, there was a significant difference between the precontemplation/contemplation stage, and both the action, and maintenance, stages.^ The second study explored the relationship between the Theory of Reasoned Action “beliefs” and the stages-of-change in the same population. In the analysis of variance for all participants, the results indicate that people in different stages did value the positive beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 15.38, p = .0001 but did not value the negative beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 2.08, p = .10. ^ The third study explored differences in stage-of-change by gender, partner type drug use, and HIV status. Three discriminant functions emerged, with a combined χ2(12) = 139.57, p = <.0001. The loading matrix of correlations between predictors and discriminant functions demonstrate that the strongest predictor for distinguishing between the precontemplation/contemplation stage and the preparation, action, and maintenance stages (first function) is partner type (.962). The loadings on the second discriminant function suggest that once partner type has been accounted for, ever having HIV/AIDS (.935) was the best predictor for distinguishing between the first three stages and the maintenance stage. ^ These studies demonstrate that behavioral change theories can contribute important insight to researchers and program planners attempting to alter HIV risk behavior in high-risk populations. ^

EVOLUTION OF DOMINANCE UNDER FREQUENCY-DEPENDENT INTRASPECIFIC COMPETITION IN AN ASSORTATIVELY MATING POPULATION

We study the evolution of higher levels of dominance as a response to negative frequency-dependent selection. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on the effect of assortative mating on the evolution of dominance under frequency-dependent intraspecific competition. We analyze a two-locus two-allele model, in which the primary locus has a major effect on a quantitative trait that is under a mixture of frequency-independent stabilizing selection, density-dependent selection, and frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources. The second (modifier) locus determines the degree of dominance at the trait level. Additionally, the population mates assortatively with respect to similarities in the ecological trait. Our analysis shows that the parameter region in which dominance can be established decreases if small levels of assortment are introduced. In addition, the degree of dominance that can be established also decreases. In contrast, if assortment is intermediate, sexual selection for extreme types can be established, which leads to evolution of higher levels of dominance than under random mating. For modifiers with large effects, intermediate levels of assortative mating are most favorable for the evolution of dominance. For large modifiers, the speed of fixation can even be higher for intermediate levels of assortative mating than for random mating.

Model-Based Estimates of Calanus Finmarchicus Abundance in the Gulf of Maine

Ocean observing systems and satellites routinely collect a wealth of information on physical conditions in the ocean. With few exceptions, such as chlorophyll concentrations, information on biological properties is harder to measure autonomously. Here, we present a system to produce estimates of the distribution and abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine. Our system uses satellite-based measurements of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration to determine the developmental and reproductive rates of C. finmarchicus. The rate information then drives a population dynamics model of C. finmarchicus that is embedded in a 2-dimensional circulation field. The first generation of this system produces realistic information on interannual variability in C. finmarchicus distribution and abundance during the winter and spring. The model can also be used to identify key drivers of interannual variability in C. finmarchicus. Experiments with the model suggest that changes in initial conditions are overwhelmed by variability in growth rates after approximately 50 d. Temperature has the largest effect on growth rate. Elevated chlorophyll during the late winter can lead to increased C. finmarchicus abundance during the spring, but the effect of variations in chlorophyll concentrations is secondary to the other inputs. Our system could be used to provide real-time estimates or even forecasts of C. finmarchicus distribution. These estimates could then be used to support management of copepod predators such as herring and right whales.

Model-Based Estimates of Right Whale Habitat Use in the Gulf of Maine

Balancing human uses of the marine environment with the recovery of protected species requires accurate information on when and where species of interest are likely to be present. Here, we describe a system that can produce useful estimates of right whale Eubalaena glacialis presence and abundance on their feeding grounds in the Gulf of Maine. The foundation of our system is a coupled physical-biological model of the copepod Calan us finmarchicus, the preferred prey of right whales. From the modeled prey densities, we can estimate when whales will appear in the Great South Channel feeding ground. Based on our experience with the system, we consider how the relationship between right whales and copepods changes across spatial scales. The scale-dependent relationship between whales and copepods provides insight into how to improve future estimates of the distribution of right whales and other pelagic predators.

Serotype epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in Swiss adults: A nationwide population-based study.

BACKGROUND In Switzerland, the heptavalent (PCV7) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) were recommended for all infants aged <2 years in 2007 and 2011, respectively. Due to herd effects, a protective impact on the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates in adults had been expected. METHODS Within this study, data from the nationwide mandatory surveillance was analyzed for all adult patients ≥16 years with IPD of known serotype/serogroup during 2003-2012. Trend (for IPD cases from 2003 to 2012) and logistic regression analyses (2007-2010) were performed to identify changes in serotype distribution and to identify the association of serotypes with age, clinical manifestations, comorbidities and case fatality, respectively. FINDINGS The proportion of PCV7 serotypes among all IPD cases (n=7678) significantly declined in adults from 44.7% (2003) before to 16.7% (2012) after the recommendation of PCV7 (P<0.001). In contrast, the proportion of non-PCV7 serogroup/serotypes increased for non-PCV13 but also PCV13 serotypes (not included in PCV7) at the same time. Serotype distribution varied significantly across ages, clinical manifestations and comorbidities. Serotype was furthermore associated with case fatality (P=0.001). In a multivariable logistic regression model, analyzing single serotypes showed that case-fatality was increased for the serotypes 3 (P=0.008), 19A (P=0.03) and 19F (P=0.005), compared to serotype 1 and 7F. CONCLUSION There was a significant decline in PCV7 serotypes among adults with IPD in Switzerland after introduction of childhood vaccination with PCV7. Pneumococcal serotypes were associated with case fatality, age, clinical manifestation and comorbidities of IPD in adults. These results may prove useful for future vaccine recommendations for adults in Switzerland.

Local changes in neocortical circuit dynamics coincide with the spread of seizures to thalamus in a model of epilepsy

During the generalization of epileptic seizures, pathological activity in one brain area recruits distant brain structures into joint synchronous discharges. However, it remains unknown whether specific changes in local circuit activity are related to the aberrant recruitment of anatomically distant structures into epileptiform discharges. Further, it is not known whether aberrant areas recruit or entrain healthy ones into pathological activity. Here we study the dynamics of local circuit activity during the spread of epileptiform discharges in the zero-magnesium in vitro model of epilepsy. We employ high-speed multi-photon imaging in combination with dual whole-cell recordings in acute thalamocortical (TC) slices of the juvenile mouse to characterize the generalization of epileptic activity between neocortex and thalamus. We find that, although both structures are exposed to zero-magnesium, the initial onset of focal epileptiform discharge occurs in cortex. This suggests that local recurrent connectivity that is particularly prevalent in cortex is important for the initiation of seizure activity. Subsequent recruitment of thalamus into joint, generalized discharges is coincident with an increase in the coherence of local cortical circuit activity that itself does not depend on thalamus. Finally, the intensity of population discharges is positively correlated between both brain areas. This suggests that during and after seizure generalization not only the timing but also the amplitude of epileptiform discharges in thalamus is entrained by cortex. Together these results suggest a central role of neocortical activity for the onset and the structure of pathological recruitment of thalamus into joint synchronous epileptiform discharges.

New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population.

BACKGROUND Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. The current reference values for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion rely on observations performed in the 1960s and 1970s in relatively small and mostly selected groups, and may thus poorly fit to the present-day general European population. The aim of this study was to establish and validate anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion on adult populations with preserved renal function. METHODS We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). Based on current reference values (177 to 221 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 133 to 177 μmol/kg/24 hours in women), 56% of the urinary collections in the whole population and 67% in people >60 years old would have been considered as inaccurate. A linear regression model with sex, BMI and age as predictor variables was found to provide the best prediction of the observed values and showed a good fit when applied to the validation population. CONCLUSIONS We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

General distress, hopelessness—suicidal ideation and worrying in adolescence: Concurrent and predictive validity of a symptom-level bifactor model for clinical diagnoses

BACKGROUND: Clinical disorders often share common symptoms and aetiological factors. Bifactor models acknowledge the role of an underlying general distress component and more specific sub-domains of psychopathology which specify the unique components of disorders over and above a general factor. METHODS: A bifactor model jointly calibrated data on subjective distress from The Mood and Feelings Questionnaire and the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale. The bifactor model encompassed a general distress factor, and specific factors for (a) hopelessness-suicidal ideation, (b) generalised worrying and (c) restlessness-fatigue at age 14 which were related to lifetime clinical diagnoses established by interviews at ages 14 (concurrent validity) and current diagnoses at 17 years (predictive validity) in a British population sample of 1159 adolescents. RESULTS: Diagnostic interviews confirmed the validity of a symptom-level bifactor model. The underlying general distress factor was a powerful but non-specific predictor of affective, anxiety and behaviour disorders. The specific factors for hopelessness-suicidal ideation and generalised worrying contributed to predictive specificity. Hopelessness-suicidal ideation predicted concurrent and future affective disorder; generalised worrying predicted concurrent and future anxiety, specifically concurrent generalised anxiety disorders. Generalised worrying was negatively associated with behaviour disorders. LIMITATIONS: The analyses of gender differences and the prediction of specific disorders was limited due to a low frequency of disorders other than depression. CONCLUSIONS: The bifactor model was able to differentiate concurrent and predict future clinical diagnoses. This can inform the development of targeted as well as non-specific interventions for prevention and treatment of different disorders.

CYP17A1 Enzyme Activity Is Linked to Ambulatory Blood Pressure in a Family-Based Population Study

BACKGROUND Genome-wide association studies have linked CYP17A1 coding for the steroid hormone synthesizing enzyme 17α-hydroxylase (CYP17A1) to blood pressure (BP). We hypothesized that the genetic signal may translate into a correlation of ambulatory BP (ABP) with apparent CYP17A1 activity in a family-based population study and estimated the heritability of CYP17A1 activity. METHODS In the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension, day and night urinary excretions of steroid hormone metabolites were measured in 518 participants (220 men, 298 women), randomly selected from the general population. CYP17A1 activity was assessed by 2 ratios of urinary steroid metabolites: one estimating the combined 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase activity (ratio 1) and the other predominantly 17α-hydroxylase activity (ratio 2). A mixed linear model was used to investigate the association of ABP with log-transformed CYP17A1 activities exploring effect modification by urinary sodium excretion. RESULTS Daytime ABP was positively associated with ratio 1 under conditions of high, but not low urinary sodium excretion (P interaction <0.05). Ratio 2 was not associated with ABP. Heritability estimates (SE) for day and night CYP17A1 activities were 0.39 (0.10) and 0.40 (0.09) for ratio 1, and 0.71 (0.09) and 0.55 (0.09) for ratio 2 (P values <0.001). CYP17A1 activities, assessed with ratio 1, were lower in older participants. CONCLUSIONS Low apparent CYP17A1 activity (assessed with ratio 1) is associated with elevated daytime ABP when salt intake is high. CYP17A1 activity is heritable and diminished in the elderly. These observations highlight the modifying effect of salt intake on the association of CYP17A1 with BP.

Evaluation of a Novel Screw Position in a Type III Distal Phalanx Fracture Model: An Ex Vivo Study

OBJECTIVE: Mechanical evaluation of a novel screw position used for repair in a type III distal phalanx fracture model and assessment of solar canal penetration (SCP). STUDY DESIGN: Experimental study. SAMPLE POPULATION: Disarticulated equine hooves (n = 24) and 24 isolated distal phalanges. METHODS: Hooves/distal phalanges cut in a sagittal plane were repaired with 1 of 2 different cortical screw placements in lag fashion. In group 1 (conventional screw placement), the screw was inserted halfway between the proximal border of the solar canal (SC) and the subchondral bone surface on a line parallel to the dorsal cortex, whereas in group 2, the screw was inserted more palmar/plantar, where a perpendicular line drawn from the group 1 position reached the palmar/plantar cortex. Construct strength was evaluated by 3-point bending to failure. SCP was assessed by CT imaging and macroscopically. RESULTS: Screws were significantly longer in group 2 and in forelimbs. Group 2 isolated distal phalanges had a significantly more rigid fixation compared with the conventional screw position (maximum point at failure 31%, bending stiffness 41% higher). Lumen reduction of the SC was observed in 13/52 specimens (all from group 2), of which 9 were forelimbs. CONCLUSIONS: More distal screw positioning compared with the conventionally recommended screw position for internal fixation of type III distal phalangeal fractures allows placement of a longer screw and renders a more rigid fracture fixation. The novel screw position, however, carries a higher risk of SCP