Uncertainty, electoral incentives and political myopia

We study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build aframework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectlyobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies withfuture returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability.Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, undersome conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewardscan be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limitto governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised factsand with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better fiscal discipline in a panel of 20 OECDcountries.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):field study handbook

This handbook describes the peer review methodology that was applied at the GODIAC project fi eld studies1. The peer review evaluation method as initiated by Otto Adang in the Netherlands and further developed in a European football context (Adang & Brown, 2008) involves experienced police offi cers cooperating with researchers to perform observational fi eld studies to identify good practices and learning points for public order management. The handbook builds on the GODIAC seminars and workshops, for the fi eld study members, which took place in September 2010, January 2012 and January 2013. The handbook has been discussed in the project group and in the steering committee. It is primarily written for the GODIAC fi eld study members as background material for understanding the fi eld study process and for clarifying the different responsibilities that enable active participation in the fi eld study. The handbook has been developed during the project period and incorporates learning points and developments of the peer review method. The handbook aims at promoting the use of fi eld studies for evaluation of policing major events.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):the anthology

The volume is divided into two parts; the fi rst deals with issues related to the police, and the second addresses issues related to demonstrators and protesters. We hope that this volume will provide further insight into issues associated with policing at major events and shed light on the complexity of the organisations, motives, and strategies in play whenever protester groups are involved.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):recommendations for policing political manifestations in Europe

This report summarises the fi eld study results of the project ’Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principles for policing political manifestations in Europe’ (GODIAC).1 The overall idea was to integrate operative police work, research and training within the fi eld and to build international and institutional networks, ensuring and recognising the responsibilities of the organisers. The purpose of the GODIAC project was to contribute to the development of a European approach to policing political manifestations.

What can we learn from international comparisons of costs by DRG ?

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare costs data by diagnosis related group (DRG) between Belgium and Switzerland. Our hypotheses were that differences between countries can probably be explained by methodological differences in cost calculations, by differences in medical practices and by differences in cost structures within the two countries. METHODS: Classifications of DRG used in the two countries differ (AP-DRGs version 1.7 in Switzerland and APR-DRGs version 15.0 in Belgium). The first step of this study was to transform Belgian summaries into Swiss AP-DRGs. Belgian and Swiss data were calculated with a clinical costing methodology (full costing). Belgian and Swiss costs were converted into US$ PPP (purchasing power parity) in order to neutralize differences in purchasing power between countries. RESULTS: The results of this study showed higher costs in Switzerland despite standardization of cost data according to PPP. The difference is not explained by the case-mix index because this was similar for inliers between the two countries. The length of stay (LOS) was also quite similar for inliers between the two countries. The case-mix index was, however, higher for high outliers in Belgium, as reflected in a higher LOS for these patients. Higher costs in Switzerland are thus probably explained mainly by the higher number of agency staff by service in this country or because of differences in medical practices. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to make international comparisons but only if there is standardization of the case-mix between countries and only if comparable accountancy methodologies are used. Harmonization of DRGs groups, nomenclature and accountancy is thus required.

Kinship, ritual kinship and political milieus in an alpine Valley in 19th century

In my paper I will present some results about ritual kinship and political mobilization of popular groups in an alpine Valley: the Val de Bagnes, in the Swiss canton of Valais. There are two major reasons to choose the Val de Bagnes for our inquiry about social networks: the existence of sharp political and social conflicts during the 18th and the 19th century and the availability of almost systematic genealogical data between 1700 and 1900. The starting point of my research focuses on this question: what role did kinship and ritual kinship play in the political mobilization of popular groups and in the organization of competing factions? This question allows us to shed light on some other uses and meanings of ritual kinship in the local society. Was ritual kinship a significant instrument for economic cooperation? Or was it a channel for patronage or for privileged social contacts? The analysis highlights the importance of kinship and godparentage for the building of homogeneous social and political networks. If we consider transactions between individuals, the analysis of 19th century Val de Bagnes gives the impression of quite open networks. Men and women tried to diversify their relations in order to avoid strong dependency from powerful patrons. Nevertheless, when we consider the family networks, we can notice that most relations took place in a structured social space or a specific "milieu", were intense contacts enhanced trust, although political allegiances and social choices were not fully predictable on the basis of such preferential patterns. In a politically conflictual society, like 19th century Bagnes, ritual kinship interacted with kinship solidarities and ideological factors shaping dense social networks mostly based on a common political orientation. Such milieus sustained the building of political factions, which show surprising stability over time. In this sense, milieus are important factors to understand political and religious polarization in 19th century Switzerland.

The costs of disorders of the brain in Switzerland: an update from the European Brain Council Study for 2010.

BACKGROUND: In 2005, findings of the first "cost of disorders of the brain in Europe" study of the European Brain Council (EBC) showed that these costs cause a substantial economic burden to the Swiss society. In 2010 an improved update with a broader range of disorders has been analysed. This report shows the new findings for Switzerland and discusses changes. METHODS: Data are derived from the EBC 2010 census study that estimates 12-month prevalence of 12 groups of disorders of the brain and calculates costs (direct health-care costs, direct non-medical costs and indirect costs) by combining top-down and bottom up cost approaches using existing data. RESULTS: The most frequent disorder was headache (2.3 million). Anxiety disorders were found in 1 million persons and sleep disorders in 700,000 persons. Annual costs for all assessed disorders total to 14.5 billion Euro corresponding to about 1,900 EUR per inhabitant per year. Mood, psychotic disorders and dementias (appr. 2 billion EUR each) were most costly. Costs per person were highest for neurological/neurosurgery-relevant disorders, e.g. neuromuscular disorders, brain tumour and multiple sclerosis (38,000 to 24,000 EUR). CONCLUSION: The estimates of the EBC 2010 study for Switzerland provide a basis for health care planning. Increase in size and costs compared to 2005 are mostly due to the inclusion of new disorders (e.g., sleep disorders), or the re-definition of others (e.g., headache) and to an increase in younger cohorts. We suggest coordinated research and preventive measures coordinated between governmental bodies, private health-care and pharmaceutical companies.

Issue review : state of Iowa full-time-equivalent positions and personnel costs.

This issue review provides background on the establishment of full-time-equivalent, or FTE, positions and examines how FTE positions are used in the state's budgeting process. This issue review also provides historical information regarding FTE positions and personnel costs and the current status and outlook of FTE positions and salary expenditures for fiscal year 2011. In addition, this issue review outlines the new requirements included in Senate File 2088, Government Reorganization Efficiency Act, that will impact FTE levels and expenditure of salary dollars for fiscal 2011.

Prevalence and costs of multinutrution in hospitalized patients; the PREDyCES study

Justificación y objetivos: El estudio PREDyCES® tuvo dos objetivos principales. Primero, analizar la prevalencia de desnutrición hospitalaria (DH) en España tanto al ingreso como al alta, y segundo, estimar sus costes asociados. Métodos: Estudio nacional, transversal, observacional, multicéntrico, en condiciones de práctica clínica habitual que evaluó la presencia de desnutrición hospitalaria al ingreso y al alta mediante el NRS-2002®. Una extensión del estudio analizó la incidencia de complicaciones asociadas a la desnutrición, el exceso de estancia hospitalaria y los costes sanitarios asociados a la DH. Resultados: La prevalencia de desnutrición observada según el NRS-2002® fue del 23.7%. El análisis multivariante mostró que la edad, el género, la presencia de enfermedad oncológica, diabetes mellitus, disfagia y la polimedicación fueron los factores principales que se asociaron a la presencia de desnutrición. La DH se asoció a un incremento de la estancia hospitalaria, especialmente en aquellos pacientes que ingresaron sin desnutrición y que presentaron desnutrición al alta (15.2 vs 8.0 días; p < 0.001), con un coste adicional asociado de 5.829€ por paciente. Conclusiones: Uno de cada cuatro pacientes en los hospitales españoles se encuentra desnutrido. Esta condición se asocia a un exceso de estancia hospitalaria y costes asociados, especialmente en pacientes que se desnutren durante su hospitalización. Se debería generalizar el cribado nutricional sistemático con el objetivo de implementar intervenciones nutricionales de conocida eficacia.

Issue review : state of Iowa fiscal year 2011 FTE positions and personnel costs.

This issue review provides updated information on an issue review published in December 2010, concerning the full-time-equivalent, or FTE, positions in state government. The background information provides a general explanation and understanding of the various aspects of FTE positions. This issue review includes year-end FTE and salary data for fiscal year 2011 and compares the data to prior years.

Issue review : construction status and operating costs of new corrections beds.

This issue review provides information on the Department of Corrections construction and of proposed staffing for additional beds in the prison system and community-based corrections.