The regional employment impacts of renewable energy expenditures: The case for modelling

One aspect of the case for policy support for renewable energy developments is the wider economic benefits that are expected to be generated. Within Scotland, as with other regions of the UK, there is a focus on encouraging domestically‐based renewable technologies. In this paper, we use a regional computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact on the Scottish economy of expenditures relating to marine energy installations. The results illustrate the potential for (considerable) ‘legacy’ effects after expenditures cease. In identifying the specific sectoral expenditures with the largest impact on (lifetime) regional employment, this approach offers important policy guidance.

The regional economic impacts of biofuels: A review of multisectoral modelling techniques and evaluation of applications

The regional economic impact of biofuel production depends upon a number of interrelated factors: the specific biofuels feedstock and production technology employed; the sector’s embeddedness to the rest of the economy, through its demand for local resources; the extent to which new activity is created. These issues can be analysed using multisectoral economic models. Some studies have used (fixed price) Input-Output (IO) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modelling frameworks, whilst a nascent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) literature has also begun to examine the regional (and national) impact of biofuel development. This paper reviews, compares and evaluates these approaches for modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels.

The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions convey signals that communicate information about the exchange rate objectives of central bank. The model is used to analyse the impact of Japanese FX interventions during the period 1999 -2011 on the yen/US dollar dynamics.

The regional economic impacts of biofuels: A review of multisectoral modelling techniques and evaluation of applications

The regional economic impact of biofuel production depends upon a number of interrelated factors: the specific biofuels feedstock and production technology employed; the sector’s embeddedness to the rest of the economy, through its demand for local resources; the extent to which new activity is created. These issues can be analysed using multisectoral economic models. Some studies have used (fixed price) Input-Output (IO) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modelling frameworks, whilst a nascent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) literature has also begun to examine the regional (and national) impact of biofuel development. This paper reviews, compares and evaluates these approaches for modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels.

Ecological-economic modelling of interactions between wild and commercial bees and pesticide use

The decline in extent of wild pollinators in recent years has been partly associated with changing farm practices and in particular with increase of pesticide use. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis of a single farm output under the assumption that both pollination and pest control are essential inputs. We show that the drive to increase farm output can lead to a local decline in the wild bee population. Commercial bees are often considered an alternative to wild pollinators, but we show that their introduction can lead to further decline and finally local extinction of wild bees. The transitions between different outcomes are characterised by threshold behaviour and are potentially difficult to predict and detect in advance. Small changes in economic (input prices) and ecological (wild bees carrying capacity and effect of pesticides on bees) can move the economic-ecological system beyond the extinction threshold. We also show that increasing the pesticide price or decreasing the commercial bee price might lead to reestablishment of wild bees following their local extinction. Thus, we demonstrate the importance of combining ecological modelling with economics to study the provision of ecosystem services and to inform sustainable management of ecosystem service providers.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Applications of the MuSIASEM approach to study changes in the metabolic pattern of Catalonia

This document presents an integrated analysis of the performance of Catalonia based on an analysis of how the energy consumption (measured at the societal level for the Catalan Society) is used within both the productive sectors of the economy and the household, to generate added value, jobs, and to guarantee a given level of material standard of living to the population. The trends found in Catalonia are compared to the trends of other European Countries to contextualize the performance of Catalonia with respect to other societies that have followed different paths of economic development. The first part of the document consists of the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach that has been used to provide this integrated analysis of Catalan Society across different scales (starting from an analysis of the specific sectors of the Catalan economy as an Autonomous Community and scaling up to an intra-regional (European Union 14) comparison) and across different dimensions of analyses of energy consumption coupled with added value generation. Within the scope of this study, we observe the various trajectories of changes in the metabolic pattern for Catalonia and the EU14 countries in the Paid Work Sectors composed of namely, the Agricultural Sector, the Productive Sector and the Services and Government Sector also in comparison with the changes in the household sector. The flow intensities of the exosomatic energy and the added value generated for each specific sector are defined per hour of human activity, thus characterized as exosomatic energy (MJ/hour) (or Exosomatic Metabolic Rate) and added value (€/hour) (Economic Labour Productivity) across multiple levels. Within the second part of the document, the possible usage of the MuSIASEM approach to land use analyses (using a multi-level matrix of categories of land use) has been conducted.

Mutagenesis and modelling of the alpha(1b)-adrenergic receptor highlight the role of the helix 3/helix 6 interface in receptor activation.

Computer simulations on a new model of the alpha1b-adrenergic receptor based on the crystal structure of rhodopsin have been combined with experimental mutagenesis to investigate the role of residues in the cytosolic half of helix 6 in receptor activation. Our results support the hypothesis that a salt bridge between the highly conserved arginine (R143(3.50)) of the E/DRY motif of helix 3 and a conserved glutamate (E289(6.30)) on helix 6 constrains the alpha1b-AR in the inactive state. In fact, mutations of E289(6.30) that weakened the R143(3.50)-E289(6.30) interaction constitutively activated the receptor. The functional effect of mutating other amino acids on helix 6 (F286(6.27), A292(6.33), L296(6.37), V299(6.40,) V300(6.41), and F303(6.44)) correlates with the extent of their interaction with helix 3 and in particular with R143(3.50) of the E/DRY sequence.

Effects of anxiety on visuospatial pattern discrimination and decision-making processes: what can we learn from brain dynamics ?

Detection and discrimination of visuospatial input involve at least extracting, selecting and encoding relevant information and decision-making processes allowing selecting a response. These two operations are altered, respectively, by attentional mechanisms that change discrimination capacities, and by beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events. Information processing is tuned by the attentional level that acts like a filter on perception, while decision-making processes are weighed by subjective probability of risk. In addition, it has been shown that anxiety could affect the detection of unexpected events through the modification of the level of arousal. Consequently, purpose of this study concerns whether and how decision-making and brain dynamics are affected by anxiety. To investigate these questions, the performance of women with either a high (12) or a low (12) STAI-T (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Spielberger, 1983) was examined in a decision-making visuospatial task where subjects have to recognize a target visual pattern from non-target patterns. The target pattern was a schematic image of furniture arranged in such a way as to give the impression of a living room. Non-target patterns were created by either the compression or the dilatation of the distances between objects. Target and non-target patterns were always presented in the same configuration. Preliminary behavioral results show no group difference in reaction time. In addition, visuo-spatial abilities were analyzed trough the signal detection theory for quantifying perceptual decisions in the presence of uncertainty (Green and Swets, 1966). This theory treats detection of a stimulus as a decision-making process determined by the nature of the stimulus and cognitive factors. Astonishingly, no difference in d' (corresponding to the distance between means of the distributions) and c (corresponds to the likelihood ratio) indexes was observed. Comparison of Event-related potentials (ERP) reveals that brain dynamics differ according to anxiety. It shows differences in component latencies, particularly a delay in anxious subjects over posterior electrode sites. However, these differences are compensated during later components by shorter latencies in anxious subjects compared to non-anxious one. These inverted effects seem indicate that the absence of difference in reaction time rely on a compensation of attentional level that tunes cortical activation in anxious subjects, but they have to hammer away to maintain performance.

Distinct expression pattern of microtubule-associated protein-2 in human oligodendrogliomas and glial precursor cells.

Microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2), a protein linked to the neuronal cytoskeleton in the mature central nervous system (CNS), has recently been identified in glial precursors indicating a potential role during glial development. In the present study, we systematically analyzed the expression of MAP2 in a series of 237 human neuroepithelial tumors including paraffin-embedded specimens and tumor tissue microarrays from oligodendrogliomas, mixed gliomas, astrocytomas, glioblastomas, ependymomas, as well as dysembryoplastic neuroepithelial tumors (DNT), and central neurocytomas. In addition, MAP2-immunoreactive precursor cells were studied in the developing human brain. Three monoclonal antibodies generated against MAP2A-B or MAP2A-D isoforms were used. Variable immunoreactivity for MAP2 could be observed in all gliomas with the exception of ependymomas. Oligodendrogliomas exhibited a consistently strong and distinct pattern of expression characterized by perinuclear cytoplasmic staining without significant process labeling. Tumor cells with immunoreactive bi- or multi-polar processes were mostly encountered in astroglial neoplasms, whereas the small cell component in neurocytomas and DNT was not labeled. These features render MAP2 immunoreactivity a helpful diagnostic tool for the distinction of oligodendrogliomas and other neuroepithelial neoplasms. RT-PCR, Western blot analysis, and in situ hybridization confirmed the expression of MAP2A-C (including the novel MAP2+ 13 transcript) in both oligodendrogliomas and astrocytomas. Double fluorescent laser scanning microscopy showed that GFAP and MAP2 labeled different tumor cell populations. In embryonic human brains, MAP2-immunoreactive glial precursor cells were identified within the subventricular or intermediate zones. These precursors exhibit morphology closely resembling the immunolabeled neoplastic cells observed in glial tumors. Our findings demonstrate MAP2 expression in astrocytic and oligodendroglial neoplasms. The distinct pattern of immunoreactivity in oligodendrogliomas may be useful as a diagnostic tool. Since MAP2 expression occurs transiently in migrating immature glial cells, our findings are in line with an assumed origin of diffuse gliomas from glial precursors.

Assessing the quality of alternative energy sources: Energy Return On the Investment (EROI), the metabolic pattern of societies and energy statistics

This paper presents an initial challenge to tackle the every so "tricky" points encountered when dealing with energy accounting, and thereafter illustrates how such a system of accounting can be used when assessing for the metabolic changes in societies. The paper is divided in four main sections. The first three, present a general discussion on the main issues encountered when conducting energy analyses. The last section, subsequently, combines this heuristic approach to the actual formalization of it, in quantitative terms, for the analysis of possible energy scenarios. Section one covers the broader issue of how to account for the relevant categories used when accounting for Joules of energy; emphasizing on the clear distinction between Primary Energy Sources (PES) (which are the physical exploited entities that are used to derive useable energy forms (energy carriers)) and Energy Carriers (EC) (the actual useful energy that is transmitted for the appropriate end uses within a society). Section two sheds light on the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Here, it is emphasized that, there must already be a certain amount of energy carriers available to be able to extract/exploit Primary Energy Sources to thereafter generate a net supply of energy carriers. It is pointed out that this current trend of intense energy supply has only been possible to the great use and dependence on fossil energy. Section three follows up on the discussion of EROI, indicating that a single numeric indicator such as an output/input ratio is not sufficient in assessing for the performance of energetic systems. Rather an integrated approach that incorporates (i) how big the net supply of Joules of EC can be, given an amount of extracted PES (the external constraints); (ii) how much EC needs to be invested to extract an amount of PES; and (iii) the power level that it takes for both processes to succeed, is underlined. Section four, ultimately, puts the theoretical concepts at play, assessing for how the metabolic performances of societies can be accounted for within this analytical framework.

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Post-traumatic mutism in children: clinical characteristics, pattern of recovery and clinicopathological correlations.

Among the numerous clinical syndromes observed after severe traumatic head injury, post-traumatic mutism is a disorder rarely reported in adults and not studied in any detail in children. We report seven children between the ages of 3 1/2 and 14 years who sustained severe head injury and developed post-traumatic mutism. We aim to give a precise clinical characterization of this disorder, discuss differential diagnosis and correlations with brain imaging and suggest its probable neurological substrate. After a coma lasting from 5 to 25 days, the seven patients who suffered from post-traumatic mutism went through a period of total absence of verbal production lasting from 5 to 94 days, associated with the recovery of non-verbal communication skills and emotional vocalization. During the first days after the recovery of speech, all patients were able to produce correct small sentences with a hypophonic and monotonous voice, moderate dysarthria, word finding difficulties but no signs of aphasia, and preserved oral comprehension. The neurological signs in the acute phase (III nerve paresis in three of seven patients, signs of autonomic dysfunctions in five of seven patients), the results of the brain imaging and the experimental animal data all suggest the involvement of mesencephalic structures as playing a key role in the aetiology of post-traumatic mutism.