Online hidden Markov model parameter estimation and minimax robust quickest change detection in uncertain stochastic processes

Stochastic (or random) processes are inherent to numerous fields of human endeavour including engineering, science, and business and finance. This thesis presents multiple novel methods for quickly detecting and estimating uncertainties in several important classes of stochastic processes. The significance of these novel methods is demonstrated by employing them to detect aircraft manoeuvres in video signals in the important application of autonomous mid-air collision avoidance.

The subordinated processes controlled by a family of subordinators and corresponding Fokker-Planck type equations

In this work, we consider subordinated processes controlled by a family of subordinators which consist of a power function of a time variable and a negative power function of an α-stable random variable. The effect of parameters in the subordinators on the subordinated process is discussed. By suitable variable substitutions and the Laplace transform technique, the corresponding fractional Fokker–Planck-type equations are derived. We also compute their mean square displacements in a free force field. By choosing suitable ranges of parameters, the resulting subordinated processes may be subdiffusive, normal diffusive or superdiffusive

A process mining-based investigation of adverse events in care processes

This paper proposes the Clinical Pathway Analysis Method (CPAM) approach that enables the extraction of valuable organisational and medical information on past clinical pathway executions from the event logs of healthcare information systems. The method deals with the complexity of real-world clinical pathways by introducing a perspective-based segmentation of the date-stamped event log. CPAM enables the clinical pathway analyst to effectively and efficiently acquire a profound insight into the clinical pathways. By comparing the specific medical conditions of patients with the factors used for characterising the different clinical pathway variants, the medical expert can identify the best therapeutic option. Process mining-based analytics enables the acquisition of valuable insights into clinical pathways, based on the complete audit traces of previous clinical pathway instances. Additionally, the methodology is suited to assess guideline compliance and analyse adverse events. Finally, the methodology provides support for eliciting tacit knowledge and providing treatment selection assistance.

Monitoring care processes in the gynecologic oncology department

The care processes of healthcare providers are typically considered as human-centric, flexible, evolving, complex and multi-disciplinary. Consequently, acquiring an insight in the dynamics of these care processes can be an arduous task. A novel event log based approach for extracting valuable medical and organizational information on past executions of the care processes is presented in this study. Care processes are analyzed with the help of a preferential set of process mining techniques in order to discover recurring patterns, analyze and characterize process variants and identify adverse medical events.

Separable spatiotemporal priors for convex reconstruction of time-varying 3D point clouds

Reconstructing 3D motion data is highly under-constrained due to several common sources of data loss during measurement, such as projection, occlusion, or miscorrespondence. We present a statistical model of 3D motion data, based on the Kronecker structure of the spatiotemporal covariance of natural motion, as a prior on 3D motion. This prior is expressed as a matrix normal distribution, composed of separable and compact row and column covariances. We relate the marginals of the distribution to the shape, trajectory, and shape-trajectory models of prior art. When the marginal shape distribution is not available from training data, we show how placing a hierarchical prior over shapes results in a convex MAP solution in terms of the trace-norm. The matrix normal distribution, fit to a single sequence, outperforms state-of-the-art methods at reconstructing 3D motion data in the presence of significant data loss, while providing covariance estimates of the imputed points.

Milling innovations at Rocky Point

This paper reviews the innovations that have been introduced in the milling train at Rocky Point mill since 2001 and provides some operational, performance and maintenance comparisons of the technologies in use. The decision to install BHEM mills in the #2 and #3 mill positions to complement the six-roll mills in the #1 and #4 mill positions has proven a good one. Satisfactory performance is being obtained by these mills while maintenance costs are significantly less. Very good #1 mill extraction and final bagasse moisture content are being achieved. The innovation of using Hägglunds hydraulic drives at higher speed…

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Conceptualising recognition of prior learning processes in the age of open learning

This chapter interrogates what recognition of prior learning (RPL) can and does mean in the higher education sector—a sector in the grip of the widening participation agenda and an open access age. The chapter discusses how open learning is making inroads into recognition processes and examines two studies in open learning recognition. A case study relating to e-portfolio-style RPL for entry into a Graduate Certificate in Policy and Governance at a metropolitan university in Queensland is described. In the first instance, candidates who do not possess a relevant Bachelor degree need to demonstrate skills in governmental policy work in order to be eligible to gain entry to a Graduate Certificate (at Australian Qualifications Framework Level 8) (Australian Qualifications Framework Council, 2013, p. 53). The chapter acknowledges the benefits and limitations of recognition in open learning and those of more traditional RPL, anticipating future developments in both (or their convergence).

Doing Digital Composition on the Social Web: Knowledge Processes in Literacy Learning

The power to influence others in ever-expanding social networks in the new knowledge economy is tied to capabilities with digital media production. This chapter draws on research in elementary classrooms to examine the repertoires of cross-disciplinary knowledge that literacy learners need to produce innovative digital media via the “social web”. It focuses on the knowledge processes that occurred when elementary students engaged in multimodal text production with new digital media. It draws on Kalantzis and Cope’s (2008) heuristic for theorizing “Knowledge Processes” in the Learning by Design approach to pedagogy. Learners demonstrate eight “Knowledge Processes” across different subject domains, skills areas, and sensibilities. Drawing data from media-based lessons across several classroom and schools, this chapter examines what kinds of knowledge students utilize when they produce digital, multimodal texts in the classroom. The Learning by Design framework is used as an analytic tool to theorize how students learn when they engaged in a specific domain of learning – digital media production.

A new two point method of obtaining Cv from a consolidation test: Discussion

Careful study of various aspects presented in the note reveals basic fallacies in the concept and final conclusions.The Authors claim to have presented a new method of determining C-v. However, the note does not contain a new method. In fact, the method proposed is an attempt to generate settlement vs. time data using only two values of (t,8). The Authors have used a rectangular hyperbola method to determine C-v from the predicated 8- t data. In this context, the title of the paper itself is misleading and questionable. The Authors have compared C-v values predicated with measured values, both of them being the results of the rectangular hyperbola method.

Study of the processes occurring when sputtering YBa2Cu3O7-x in pure oxygen

The sputter deposition of YBa2Cu3O7-x in a de-diode was performed in pure oxygen medium and an optical spectroscopic study of the resultant discharge revealed strong emissions from both metal atoms and oxygen ions. Emission intensities were studied in pressure range from 0.5 to 3 mbar, with substrate temperatures from 150 to 850 degrees C. Raising the substrate temperature to 850 degrees C increased the number of positive ions and excited neutral atoms. Raising the pressure decreased the emission intensities of excited neutral and ionic species. The results have been compared with those obtained from Langmuir probe measurements. The rise in emission intensities of excited neutrals and ions with temperature suggested the possibility of chemically enhanced physical sputtering of YBa2Cu3O7-x. The effect of process conditions on film composition and quality is also discussed.

Temperature dependent vibrational lifetimes in supercritical fluids near the critical point

Vibrational relaxation measurements on the CO asymmetric stretching mode (similar to 1980 cm(-1)) of tungsten hexacarbonyl (W(CO)(6)) as a function of temperature at constant density in several supercritical solvents in the vicinity of the critical point are presented. In supercritical ethane, at the critical density, there is a region above the critical temperature (Tc) in which the lifetime increases with increasing temperature. When the temperature is raised sufficiently (similar to T-c + 70 degrees C), the lifetime decreases with further increase in temperature. A recent hydrodynamic/thermodynamic theory of vibrational relaxation in supercritical fluids reproduces this behavior semiquantitatively. The temperature dependent data for fixed densities somewhat above and below the critical density is in better agreement with the theory. In fluoroform solvent at the critical density, the vibrational lifetime also initially increases with increasing temperature. However, in supercritical CO2 at the critical density, the temperature dependent vibrational lifetime decreases approximately linearly with temperature beginning almost immediately above T-c. The theory does not reproduce this behavior. A comparison between the absolute lifetimes in the three solvents and the temperature trends is made.

Unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a rotating sphere

The unsteady free convection boundary-layer flow in the forward stagnation-point region of a sphere, which is rotating with time-dependent angular velocity in an ambient fluid, has been studied. Both constant wall temperature and constant hear flux conditions have been considered. The non-linear coupled parabolic partial differential equations governing the flow have been solved numerically using an implicit finite-difference scheme. The skin friction and the heat transfer are enhanced by the buoyancy force. The effect of the buoyancy force is found to be more pronounced for smaller Prandtl numbers than for larger Prandtl numbers. For a given buoyancy force, the heat transfer increases with an increase in Prandtl number, but the skin friction decreases.

Unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a three-dimensional body

The unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a heated three-dimensional body placed in an ambient fluid is studied under boundary layer approximations. We have considered the case where there is an initial steady state that is perturbed by a step-change in the wall temperature. The non-linear coupled partial differential equations governing the free convection flow are solved numerically using a finite difference scheme. The presented results show the temporal development of the momentum and thermal boundary layer characteristics.

An Investigation of Friction During Friction Stir Welding of Metallic Materials

The technique of friction stir welding (FSW) puts effective use frictional heat for the purpose of joining metallic materials. In this research article, we present and discuss an experimental method to determine the coefficient of friction during FSW. The experiments were conducted to study the interaction between the FSW tool (a die steel) and the base metal (a high strength aluminum alloy) at various contact pressures (13MPa, 26MPa, and 39MPa) and rotation speeds (200rpm, 600rpm, 1000rpm, and 1400rpm). The experimental results, the microstructure, and the process temperature reveal the experimental setup to be capable of simulating the conditions during FSW. The coefficient of friction was found to vary from 0.15 to 1.4, and the temperature increased to as high as 450C. The coefficient of friction was found to increase with temperature. There exists a critical temperature at which point a steep increase in the coefficient of friction was observed. The critical temperature decreases from 250C at a contact pressure of 26MPa to 200C at contact pressure of 34MPa. Below the critical temperature at a specific contact pressure the maximum coefficient of friction is 0.6, and above the critical temperature it reaches a value as high as 1.4. The steep increase in the coefficient of friction is found to be due to the seizure phenomenon and the contact condition during FSW between the tool and the workpiece (base metal) is found to be sticking.