Structural dynamics in the global pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. Planted forests (especially eucalyptus) and recovered paper have quickly increased their importance as raw material for paper and paperboard production. Although advances in information and communication technologies could reduce the demand for communication papers, and the growth of paper consumption has indeed flattened in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, the consumption is increasing on a global scale. Moreover, the focal point of production and consumption is moving from the Western world to the rapidly growing markets of Southeast Asia. This study analyzes how the so-called megatrends (globalization, technological development, and increasing environmental awareness) affect the pulp and paper industry’s external environment, and seeks reliable ways to incorporate the impact of the megatrends on the models concerning the demand, trade, and use of paper and pulp. The study expands current research in several directions and points of view, for example, by applying and incorporating several quantitative methods and different models. As a result, the thesis makes a significant contribution to better understand and measure the impacts of structural changes on the pulp and paper industry. It also provides some managerial and policy implications.

Rheological behavior of corn and soy mix as feed ingredients

Foods behave as non-Newtonian fluids, but little is known about how corn and soybean mix behave under viscometric flow. In order to characterize the rheological behavior of animal feed under viscometric flow, a 70:30 (mass:mass) mixture of ground corn and soybean grains was submitted to a capillary rheometer at 3 different temperatures (80, 120, and 160 °C), different moisture levels (26.5 ± 0.08; 30.4 ± 0.31, and 33.4 ± 0.05%), and 4 shear rates (30.4; 72.9; 304.3, and 728.6/second). Different strain rates and die dimensions were used to obtain the target shear rates. The resulting data were fitted to Power Law, Casson, and Bingham models. Based on experimental data, water content, mass temperature, and the effects of shear rate on the apparent shear viscosity of corn-soy mix were fitted to a single expression (p < 0.001, R² = 0.93): η = 18,769.7 (y)-0.86 e (-9.34 U + 935 T), where y is shear rate, U is sample moisture, and T is sample temperature in Kelvin scale. As expected, such mixture presented a pseudoplastic (shear-thinning) behavior.

Chemical pattern of brazilian apples: a chemometric approach based on the Fuji and Gala varieties

The chemical composition of apple juices may be used to discriminate between the varieties for consumption and those for raw material. Fuji and Gala have a chemical pattern that can be used for this classification. Multivariate methods correlate independent continuous chemical descriptors with the categorical apple variety. Three main descriptors of apple juice were selected: malic acid, total reducing sugar and total phenolic compounds. A chemometric approach, employing PCA and SIMCA, was used to classify apple juice samples. PCA was performed with 24 juices from Fuji and Gala, and SIMCA, with 15 juices. The exploratory and predictive models recognized 88% and 64%, respectively, as belonging to a mixed domain. The apple juice from commercial fruits shows a pattern related to cv. Fuji and Gala with boundaries from 0.18 to 0.389 g.100 mL-1 (malic acid), from 8.65 to 15.18 g.100 mL-1 (total reducing sugar) and from 100 to 400 mg.L-1 (total phenolic compounds), but such boundaries were slightly shorter in the remaining set of commercial apple juices, specifically from 0.16 to 0.36 g.100 mL-1, from 9.25 to 15.5 g.100 mL-1 and from 180 to 606 mg.L-1 for acidity, reducing sugar and phenolic compounds, respectively, representing the acid, sweet and bitter tastes.

Effect of air-temperature and diet composition on the drying process of pellets for japanese abalone (Haliotis discus hannai) feeding

The aim of this research was to study the effect of air-temperature and diet composition on the mass transfer kinetics during the drying process of pellets used for Japanese Abalone (Haliotis discus hannai) feeding. In the experimental design, three temperatures were used for convective drying, as well as three different diet compositions (Diets A, B and C), in which the amount of fishmeal, spirulin, algae, fish oil and cornstarch varied. The water diffusion coefficient of the pellets was determined using the equation of Fick's second law, which resulted in values between 0.84-1.94×10-10 m²/s. The drying kinetics was modeled using Page, Modified Page, Root of time, Exponential, Logarithmic, Two-Terms, Modified Henderson-Pabis and Weibull models. In addition, two new models, referred to as 'Proposed' models 1 and 2, were used to simulate this process. According to the statistical tests applied, the models that best fitted the experimental data were Modified Henderson-Pabis, Weibull and Proposed model 2, respectively. Bifactorial analysis of variance ANOVA showed that Diet A (fishmeal 44%, spirulin 9%, fish oil 1% and cornstarch 36%) presented the highest diffusion coefficient values, which were favored by the temperature increase in the drying process.

Moisture sorption isotherms of fresh and blanched pumpkin (Cucurbita moschata)

Moisture desorption isotherms of fresh and heat blanched pumpkins (Cucurbita moschata) were determined at three temperatures (30, 50 and 70 °C), using the standard, static-gravimetric method. The GAB, Oswin, BET, Halsey, and Henderson models were tested and, with the exception of the Henderson model, showed satisfactory fits to the experimental data. The GAB model was used to analyze the fitting ability to describe the isotherm type. The shape of the desorption isotherms of fresh and blanched pumpkin at 30 and 50 °C was intermediate to types II and III, and at 70 °C it was of type II for the blanched pumpkin and close to type II for the fresh sample. The influence of blanching on the decrease in equilibrium moisture was very small compared to the fresh samples and it was related to the loss of soluble solids during the pre-treatment. The isosteric heat of sorption measures indicated that a larger amount of heat was required to remove the water from the fresh samples than from the blanched ones.

Oxidative stability of cereal bars made with fruit peels and baru nuts packaged in different types of packaging

Food industries have been concerned about managing the waste generated by their production processes in order to minimize environmental impacts and also about the development of formulations with different and innovative ingredients such as fruits from the Brazilian savanna. Seeking to meet the expectations of consumers who desire healthy and practical products, this study aimed to evaluate the oxidative stability and the variations in chemical composition and antioxidant potential of cereal bars made with fruit peels and baru nuts packaged in different types of packaging. The bars formulated were packed in four different types of packaging: laminated without vacuum (LWV), transparent without vacuum (TWV), transparent under vacuum (TV), and laminated under vacuum (LV); they were subsequently analyzed for proximate composition, fatty acid profiles, antioxidant activity, and oxidative capacity. The results showed that the cereal bars made with fruit peel and baru are sources of protein, dietary fiber, and fat, especially unsaturated fatty acids such as oleic and linoleic acids. The cereal bars exhibited oxidative stability up to 120 days of storage, and the type of packaging was not significant for the variables evaluated; therefore, they can be stored in low cost packaging such as transparent packaging without vacuum for a period of 120 days.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

A microanalysis of EMG and EEG changes during the sleep onset period (SOP) : a theoretical investigation with practical applications /

The present study has both theoretical and practical aspects. The theoretical intent of the study was to closely examine the relationship between muscle activity (EMG) and EEG state during the process of falling asleep. Sleep stages during sleep onset (SO) have been generally defined with regards to brain wave activity (Recht schaff en & Kales (1968); and more precisely by Hori, Hayashi, & Morikawa (1994)). However, no previous study has attempted to quantify the changes in muscle activity during this same process. The practical aspect of the study examined the reliability ofa commercially developed wrist-worn alerting device (NovAlert™) that utilizes changes in muscle activity/tension in order to alert its user in the event that he/she experiences reduced wakefulness that may result in dangerous consequences. Twelve female participants (aged 18-42) sp-ent three consecutive nights in the sleep lab ("Adaptation", "EMG", and "NOVA" nights). Each night participants were given 5, twenty-minute nap opportunities. On the EMG night, participants were allowed to fall asleep freely. On the NOV A night, participants wore the Nov Alert™ wrist device that administered a Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) when it detected that muscle activity levels had dropped below baseline. Nap sessions were scored using Hori's 9-stage scoring system (Hori et aI, 1994). Power spectral analyses (FFT) were also performed. Effects ofthe PVT administration on EMG and EEG frequencies were also examined. Both chin and wrist EMG activity showed reliable and significant decline during the early stages ofHori staging (stages HO to H3 characterized by decreases in alpha activity). All frequency bands studied went through significant changes as the participants progressed through each ofHori's 9 SO stages. Delta, theta, and sigma activity increased later in the SO continuum while a clear alpha dominance shift was noted as alpha activity shifted from the posterior regions of the brain (during Hori stages HO to H3) to the anterior portions (during Hori stages H7 to H9). Administration of the PVT produced significant increases in EMG activity and was effective in reversing subjective drowsiness experienced during the later stages of sleep onset. Limitations of the alerting effects of the PVTs were evident following 60 to 75 minutes of use in that PVTs delivered afterwards were no longer able to significantly increase EMG levels. The present study provides a clearer picture of the changes in EMG and EEG during the sleep onset period while testing the efficacy of a commercially developed alerting device. EMG decreases were found to begin during Hori stage 0 when EEG was - dominated by alpha wave activity and were maximal as Hori stages 2 to 5 were traversed (coincident with alpha and beta activity). This signifies that EMG decrements and the loss of resting alpha activity are closely related. Since decreased alpha has long been associated with drowsiness and impending sleep, this investigation links drops in muscle tone with sleepiness more directly than in previous investigations. The EMG changes were reliably demonstrated across participants and the NovAlert™ detected the EMG decrements when Hori stage 3 was entered. The alerting vibrations produced by the NovAlert™ occurred early enough in the SO process to be of practical importance as a sleepiness monitoring and alerting device.

Dynamic Facility Location with Modular Capacities : Models, Algorithms and Applications in Forestry

Les décisions de localisation sont souvent soumises à des aspects dynamiques comme des changements dans la demande des clients. Pour y répondre, la solution consiste à considérer une flexibilité accrue concernant l’emplacement et la capacité des installations. Même lorsque la demande est prévisible, trouver le planning optimal pour le déploiement et l'ajustement dynamique des capacités reste un défi. Dans cette thèse, nous nous concentrons sur des problèmes de localisation avec périodes multiples, et permettant l'ajustement dynamique des capacités, en particulier ceux avec des structures de coûts complexes. Nous étudions ces problèmes sous différents points de vue de recherche opérationnelle, en présentant et en comparant plusieurs modèles de programmation linéaire en nombres entiers (PLNE), l'évaluation de leur utilisation dans la pratique et en développant des algorithmes de résolution efficaces. Cette thèse est divisée en quatre parties. Tout d’abord, nous présentons le contexte industriel à l’origine de nos travaux: une compagnie forestière qui a besoin de localiser des campements pour accueillir les travailleurs forestiers. Nous présentons un modèle PLNE permettant la construction de nouveaux campements, l’extension, le déplacement et la fermeture temporaire partielle des campements existants. Ce modèle utilise des contraintes de capacité particulières, ainsi qu’une structure de coût à économie d’échelle sur plusieurs niveaux. L'utilité du modèle est évaluée par deux études de cas. La deuxième partie introduit le problème dynamique de localisation avec des capacités modulaires généralisées. Le modèle généralise plusieurs problèmes dynamiques de localisation et fournit de meilleures bornes de la relaxation linéaire que leurs formulations spécialisées. Le modèle peut résoudre des problèmes de localisation où les coûts pour les changements de capacité sont définis pour toutes les paires de niveaux de capacité, comme c'est le cas dans le problème industriel mentionnée ci-dessus. Il est appliqué à trois cas particuliers: l'expansion et la réduction des capacités, la fermeture temporaire des installations, et la combinaison des deux. Nous démontrons des relations de dominance entre notre formulation et les modèles existants pour les cas particuliers. Des expériences de calcul sur un grand nombre d’instances générées aléatoirement jusqu’à 100 installations et 1000 clients, montrent que notre modèle peut obtenir des solutions optimales plus rapidement que les formulations spécialisées existantes. Compte tenu de la complexité des modèles précédents pour les grandes instances, la troisième partie de la thèse propose des heuristiques lagrangiennes. Basées sur les méthodes du sous-gradient et des faisceaux, elles trouvent des solutions de bonne qualité même pour les instances de grande taille comportant jusqu’à 250 installations et 1000 clients. Nous améliorons ensuite la qualité de la solution obtenue en résolvent un modèle PLNE restreint qui tire parti des informations recueillies lors de la résolution du dual lagrangien. Les résultats des calculs montrent que les heuristiques donnent rapidement des solutions de bonne qualité, même pour les instances où les solveurs génériques ne trouvent pas de solutions réalisables. Finalement, nous adaptons les heuristiques précédentes pour résoudre le problème industriel. Deux relaxations différentes sont proposées et comparées. Des extensions des concepts précédents sont présentées afin d'assurer une résolution fiable en un temps raisonnable.

Characterization of polycystin-1 in ADPKD pathogenetic mechanism : biogenesis and functional implications by genetic approaches in mouse

La polykystose rénale autosomique dominante (ADPKD) est une des maladies génétiques les plus communes. ADPKD se manifeste le plus souvent au stade adulte par la présence de kystes rénaux, et bien souvent de kystes hépatiques, avec une progression très variable. ADPKD mène à une insuffisance rénale: les seuls recours sont la dialyse puis la transplantation rénale. Les mutations dispersées sur les gènes PKD1 (majoritairement; la protéine polycystine-1, PC1) et PKD2 (la protéine polycystine-2, PC2) sont responsables de l’ADPKD. Le mécanisme pathogénétique de perte de fonction (LOF) et donc d’un effet récessif cellulaire est évoqué comme causatif de l’ADPKD. LOF est en effet supporté par les modèles murins d’inactivation de gènes PKD1/PKD2, qui développent de kystes, quoique in utéro et avec une rapidité impressionnante dans les reins mais pas dans le foie. Malgré de nombreuses études in vitro, le rôle de PC1/PC2 membranaire/ciliaire reste plutôt hypothétique et contexte-dépendant. Ces études ont associé PC1/PC2 à une panoplie de voies de signalisation et ont souligné une complexité structurelle et fonctionnelle exceptionnelle, dont l’implication a été testée notamment chez les modèles de LOF. Toutefois, les observations patho-cellulaires chez l’humain dont une expression soutenue, voire augmentée, de PKD1/PC1 et l’absence de phénotypes extrarénaux particuliers remet en question l’exclusivité du mécanisme de LOF. Il était donc primordial 1) d’éclaircir le mécanisme pathogénétique, 2) de générer des outils in vivo authentiques d’ADPKD en terme d’initiation et de progression de la maladie et 3) de mieux connaitre les fonctions des PC1/PC2 indispensables pour une translation clinique adéquate. Cette thèse aborde tous ces points. Tout d’abord, nous avons démontré qu’une augmentation de PKD1 endogène sauvage, tout comme chez l’humain, est pathogénétique en générant et caractérisant en détail un modèle murin transgénique de Pkd1 (Pkd1TAG). Ce modèle reproduit non seulement les caractéristiques humaines rénales, associées aux défauts du cil primaire, mais aussi extrarénales comme les kystes hépatiques. La sévérité du phénotype corrèle avec le niveau d’expression de Pkd1 ce qui supporte fortement un modèle de dosage. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons démontré par les études de complémentations génétiques que ces deux organes reposent sur une balance du clivage GPS de Pc1, une modification post-traductionelle typique des aGPCR, et dont l’activité et l’abondance semblent strictement contrôlées. De plus, nous avons caractérisé extensivement la biogénèse de Pc1 et de ses dérivés in vivo générés suite au clivage GPS. Nous avons identifié une toute nouvelle forme et prédominante à la membrane, la forme Pc1deN, en plus de confirmer deux fragments N- et C-terminal de Pc1 (NTF et CTF, respectivement) qui eux s’associent de manière non-covalente. Nous avons démontré de façon importante que le trafic de Pc1deN i.e., une forme NTF détachée du CTF, est toutefois dépendant de l’intégrité du fragment CTF in vivo. Par la suite, nous avons généré un premier modèle humanisant une mutation PKD1 non-sens tronquée au niveau du domaine NTF(E3043X) en la reproduisant chez une souris transgénique (Pkd1extra). Structurellement, cette mutation, qui mimique la forme Pc1deN, s’est également avérée causative de PKD. Le modèle Pkd1extra a permis entre autre de postuler l’existence d’une cross-interaction entre différentes formes de Pc1. De plus, nos deux modèles murins sont tous les deux associés à des niveaux altérés de c-Myc et Pc2, et soutiennent une implication réelle de ces derniers dans l’ADPKD tou comme une interaction fonctionnelle entre les polycystines. Finalement, nous avons démontré un chevauchement significatif entre l’ADPKD et le dommage rénal aigüe (ischémie/AKI) dont une expression augmentée de Pc1 et Pc2 mais aussi une stimulation de plusieurs facteurs cystogéniques tel que la tubérine, la β-caténine et l’oncogène c-Myc. Nos études ont donc apporté des évidences cruciales sur la contribution du gène dosage dans l’ADPKD. Nous avons développé deux modèles murins qui serviront d’outil pour l’analyse de la pathologie humaine ainsi que pour la validation préclinique ADPKD. L’identification d’une nouvelle forme de Pc1 ajoute un niveau de complexité supplémentaire expliquant en partie une capacité de régulation de plusieurs voies de signalisation par Pc1. Nos résultats nous amènent à proposer de nouvelles approches thérapeutiques: d’une part, le ciblage de CTF i.e., de style chaperonne, et d’autre part le ciblage de modulateurs intracellulaires (c-Myc, Pc2, Hif1α). Ensemble, nos travaux sont d’une importance primordiale du point de vue informatif et pratique pour un avancement vers une thérapie contre l’ADPKD. Le partage de voies communes entre AKI et ADPKD ouvre la voie aux approches thérapeutiques parallèles pour un traitement assurément beaucoup plus rapide.

Development of practical methodology and indicators for on-farm animal welfare assessment

163 p.

Monitoring present day changes in water vapour and the radiative energy balance using satellite data, reanalyses and models

A combination of satellite data, reanalysis products and climate models are combined to monitor changes in water vapour, clear-sky radiative cooling of the atmosphere and precipitation over the period 1979-2006. Climate models are able to simulate observed increases in column integrated water vapour (CWV) with surface temperature (Ts) over the ocean. Changes in the observing system lead to spurious variability in water vapour and clear-sky longwave radiation in reanalysis products. Nevertheless all products considered exhibit a robust increase in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling from the atmosphere to the surface; clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere is found to increase with Ts at the rate of ~4 Wm-2 K-1 over tropical ocean regions of mean descending vertical motion. Precipitation (P) is tightly coupled to atmospheric radiative cooling rates and this implies an increase in P with warming at a slower rate than the observed increases in CWV. Since convective precipitation depends on moisture convergence, the above implies enhanced precipitation over convective regions and reduced precipitation over convectively suppressed regimes. To quantify this response, observed and simulated changes in precipitation rate are analysed separately over regions of mean ascending and descending vertical motion over the tropics. The observed response is found to be substantially larger than the model simulations and climate change projections. It is currently not clear whether this is due to deficiencies in model parametrizations or errors in satellite retrievals.

Prediction leaching of potassium using the convective-dispersive and the convective log-normal transfer function models

There is increasing concern about soil enrichment with K+ and subsequent potential losses following long-term application of poor quality water to agricultural land. Different models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing water flow and chemical transport in soils and groundwater. The convective-dispersive equation (CDE) and the convective log-normal transfer function (CLT) models were fitted to the potassium (K+) leaching data. The CDE and CLT models produced equivalent goodness of fit. Simulated breakthrough curves for a range of CaCl2 concentration based on parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 were characterised by an early peak position associated with higher K+ concentration as the CaCl2 concentration used in leaching experiments decreased. In another method, the parameters estimated from 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 solution were used for all other CaCl2 concentrations, and the best value of retardation factor (R) was optimised for each data set. A better prediction was found. With decreasing CaCl2 concentration the value of R is required to be more than that measured (except for 10 mmol l(-1) CaCl2), if the estimated parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 are used. The two models suffer from the fact that they need to be calibrated against a data set, and some of their parameters are not measurable and cannot be determined independently.

Mesozoic climates: General circulation models and the rock record

General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses. They are objective in character. However, they tend to require powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless, it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.). GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols). They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites. Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection, cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data. The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible changes in future climate. The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were warm (8 degrees C or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew 10 degrees of latitude further north and south than at the present time. The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6 degrees C or more, giving more atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrological cycle. Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character, often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved. The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous, and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes and other climatically sensitive facies for that time. The message from the geological record is clear. Through the Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states, usually baldly referred to as "greenhouse" and "icehouse", although these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes. Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent rate of climatic change is exceptional). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.