Seawater carbonate chemistry and calcification during incubation experiments with Mytilus edulis and Grassostrea gigas, 2006

Ocean acidification resulting from human emissions of carbon dioxide has already lowered and will further lower surface ocean pH. The consequent decrease in calcium carbonate saturation potentially threatens calcareous marine organisms. Here, we demonstrate that the calcification rates of the edible mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) decline linearly with increasing pCO2. Mussel and oyster calcification may decrease by 25 and 10%, respectively, by the end of the century, following the IPCC IS92a scenario (?740 ppmv in 2100). Moreover, mussels dissolve at pCO2 values exceeding a threshold value of ?1800 ppmv. As these two species are important ecosystem engineers in coastal ecosystems and represent a large part of worldwide aquaculture production, the predicted decrease of calcification in response to ocean acidification will probably have an impact on coastal biodiversity and ecosystem functioning as well as potentially lead to significant economic loss.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Effect of the environment on condition and quality of cultured blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) with reference to culture depth and post-harvest practices

The condition and quality of cultured blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) are affected by various environmental characteristics including temperature, salinity, food concentration, composition and year-to-year variability, waves, tides, and currents. Mussels are a keystone species in the ecosystem, affecting the surrounding environment through filtration, biodeposition and nutrient recycling. This study evaluated the effects of culture depth and post-harvest handling on cultured blue mussels in Newfoundland, Canada. Depth was examined over two years; three shallow water (5 m depth) and three deep water sites (15 m depth) were compared for environmental characteristics, mussel physiological stress response, growth, and biochemical composition. The area examined presented complex hydrodynamic characteristics; deep water sites appeared to be located more often near or within the pycnocline than shallow water sites. Deep water sites presented lower temperatures than shallow sites from spring to fall. Physiological stress response varied seasonally, but was unaffected by culture depth. In Year 1 shallow and deep water mussels presented similar growth, while in Year 2 deep water mussels showed better final condition. Lipid and glycogen showed seasonal variation, but no significant differences between shallow and deep water were noted. Fatty acid profiles showed a higher content of omega-3s PUFA in deep water sites at the end of Year 2. Under extreme weather conditions, deep water appeared to provide a more stable environment for mussel growth than shallow water. Harvested mussels were kept under ambient live-holding conditions for one month during the fall, winter, and spring seasons. They were compared to freshly harvested mussels for condition, biochemical profile and palatability. A progressive loss of dry tissue weight and an increase in water content were shown over the holding period during the fall and spring seasons, when compared to field controls. The biochemical analysis suggested seasonal changes; differences in triacylglycerol content were found in the spring season when compared with controls. The palatability data indicated that the panellists were unable to determine a difference between mussels kept in holding and those freshly harvested from the site. This study presents new knowledge for mussel farming, especially in terms of environmental interactions and deep water culture.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and Mytilus edulis biological processes during experiments, 2010

CO2 emissions are leading to an acidification of the oceans. Predicting marine community vulnerability towards acidification is difficult, as adaptation processes cannot be accounted for in most experimental studies. Naturally CO2 enriched sites thus can serve as valuable proxies for future changes in community structure. Here we describe a natural analogue site in the Western Baltic Sea. Seawater pCO2 in Kiel Fjord is elevated for large parts of the year due to upwelling of CO2 rich waters. Peak pCO2 values of >230 Pa (>2300 µatm) and pHNBS values of <7.5 are encountered during summer and autumn, average pCO2 values are ~70 Pa (~700 µatm). In contrast to previously described naturally CO2 enriched sites that have suggested a progressive displacement of calcifying auto- and heterotrophic species, the macrobenthic community in Kiel Fjord is dominated by calcifying invertebrates. We show that blue mussels from Kiel Fjord can maintain control rates of somatic and shell growth at a pCO2 of 142 Pa (1400 µatm, pHNBS = 7.7). Juvenile mussel recruitment peaks during the summer months, when high water pCO2 values of ~100 Pa (~1000 µatm) prevail. Our findings indicate that calcifying keystone species may be able to cope with surface ocean pHNBS values projected for the end of this century when food supply is sufficient. However, owing to non-linear synergistic effects of future acidification and upwelling of corrosive water, peak seawater pCO2 in Kiel Fjord and many other productive estuarine habitats could increase to values >400 Pa (>4000 µatm). These changes will most likely affect calcification and recruitment, and increase external shell dissolution.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and Bathymodiolus brevior shell variables near Eifuku volcano, Japan, 2009

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are causing ocean acidification, compromising the ability of some marine organisms to build and maintain support structures as the equilibrium state of inorganic carbon moves away from calcium carbonate. Few marine organisms tolerate conditions where ocean pH falls significantly below today's value of about 8.1 and aragonite and calcite saturation values below 1. Here we report dense clusters of the vent mussel B. brevior in natural conditions of pH values between 5.36 and 7.29 on northwest Eifuku volcano, Mariana arc, where liquid carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide emerge in a hydrothermal setting. We find that both shell thickness and daily growth increments in shells from northwest Eifuku are only about half those recorded from mussels living in water with pH>7.8. Low pH may therefore also be implicated in metabolic impairment. We identify four-decade-old mussels, but suggest that the mussels can survive for so long only if their protective shell covering remains intact: crabs that could expose the underlying calcium carbonate to dissolution are absent from this setting. The mussels' ability to precipitate shells in such low-pH conditions is remarkable. Nevertheless, the vulnerability of molluscs to predators is likely to increase in a future ocean with low pH.

(Table S1) Stable isotope record and growth rates of cultured Mytilus edulis

To study the effects of temperature, salinity, and life processes (growth rates, size, metabolic effects, and physiological/genetic effects) on newly precipitated bivalve carbonate, we quantified shell isotopic chemistry of adult and juvenile animals of the intertidal bivalve Mytilus edulis (Blue mussel) collected alive from western Greenland and the central Gulf of Maine and cultured them under controlled conditions. Data for juvenile and adult M. edulis bivalves cultured in this study, and previously by Wanamaker et al. (2006, doi:10.1029/2005GC001189), yielded statistically identical paleotemperature relationships. On the basis of these experiments we have developed a species-specific paleotemperature equation for the bivalve M. edulis [T °C = 16.28 (±0.10) - 4.57 (±0.15) {d18Oc VPBD - d18Ow VSMOW} + 0.06 (±0.06) {d18Oc VPBD - d18Ow VSMOW}**2; r**2 = 0.99; N = 323; p < 0.0001]. Compared to the Kim and O'Neil (1997) inorganic calcite equation, M. edulis deposits its shell in isotope equilibrium (d18Ocalcite) with ambient water. Carbon isotopes (d13Ccalcite) from sampled shells were substantially more negative than predicted values, indicating an uptake of metabolic carbon into shell carbonate, and d13Ccalcite disequilibrium increased with increasing salinity. Sampled shells of M. edulis showed no significant trends in d18Ocalcite based on size, cultured growth rates, or geographic collection location, suggesting that vital effects do not affect d18Ocalcite in M. edulis. The broad modern and paleogeographic distribution of this bivalve, its abundance during the Holocene, and the lack of an intraspecies physiologic isotope effect demonstrated here make it an ideal nearshore paleoceanographic proxy throughout much of the North Atlantic Ocean.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Mytilus edulis during experiments, 2011

Ocean acidification (OA) resulting from anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) has already lowered and is predicted to further lower surface ocean pH. There is a particular need to study effects of OA on organisms living in cold-water environments due to the higher solubility of CO2 at lower temperatures. Mussel larvae (Mytilus edulis) and shrimp larvae (Pandalus borealis) were kept under an ocean acidification scenario predicted for the year 2100 (pH 7.6) and compared against identical batches of organisms held under the current oceanic pH of 8.1, which acted as a control. The temperature was held at a constant 10°C in the mussel experiment and at 5°C in the shrimp experiment. There was no marked effect on fertilization success, development time, or abnormality to the D-shell stage, or on feeding of mussel larvae in the low-pH (pH 7.6) treatment. Mytilus edulis larvae were still able to develop a shell in seawater undersaturated with respect to aragonite (a mineral form of CaCO3), but the size of low-pH larvae was significantly smaller than in the control. After 2 mo of exposure the mussels were 28% smaller in the pH 7.6 treatment than in the control. The experiment with Pandalus borealis larvae ran from 1 through 35 days post hatch. Survival of shrimp larvae was not reduced after 5 wk of exposure to pH 7.6, but a significant delay in zoeal progression (development time) was observed.

On the microstructure, growth pattern and original porosity of belemnite rostra: insights from calcitic Jurassic belemnites

Calcitic belemnite rostra are usually employed to perform paleoenvironmental studies based on geochemical data. However, several questions, such as their original porosity and microstructure, remain open, despite they are essential to make accurate interpretations based on geochemical analyses.This paper revisits and enlightens some of these questions. Petrographic data demonstrate that calcite crystals of the rostrum solidum of belemnites grow from spherulites that successively develop along the apical line, resulting in a “regular spherulithic prismatic” microstructure. Radially arranged calcite crystals emerge and diverge from the spherulites: towards the apex, crystals grow until a new spherulite is formed; towards the external walls of the rostrum, the crystals become progressively bigger and prismatic. Adjacent crystals slightly vary in their c-axis orientation, resulting in undulose extinction. Concentric growth layering develops at different scales and is superimposed and traversed by a radial pattern, which results in the micro-fibrous texture that is observed in the calcite crystals in the rostra.Petrographic data demonstrate that single calcite crystals in the rostra have a composite nature, which strongly suggests that the belemnite rostra were originally porous. Single crystals consistently comprise two distinct zones or sectors in optical continuity: 1) the inner zone is fluorescent, has relatively low optical relief under transmitted light (TL) microscopy, a dark-grey color under backscatter electron microscopy (BSEM), a commonly triangular shape, a “patchy” appearance and relatively high Mg and Na contents; 2) the outer sector is non-fluorescent, has relatively high optical relief under TL, a light-grey color under BSEM and low Mg and Na contents. The inner and fluorescent sectors are interpreted to have formed first as a product of biologically controlled mineralization during belemnite skeletal growth and the non-fluorescent outer sectors as overgrowths of the former, filling the intra- and inter-crystalline porosity. This question has important implications for making paleoenvironmental and/or paleoclimatic interpretations based on geochemical analyses of belemnite rostra.Finally, the petrographic features of composite calcite crystals in the rostra also suggest the non-classical crystallization of belemnite rostra, as previously suggested by other authors.

Development of release methods for critically endangered freshwater pearl mussels (Margaritifera margaritifera)

Biodiversity loss is a global problem with freshwater bivalves considered amongst the most
endangered biota. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, is declining
throughout its range owing to habitat degradation and overexploitation. In most of its range,
populations are regarded as reproductively non-functional which has led to the development
of captive breeding programmes. A novel method of releasing M. margaritifera was trialled,
with captive-bred juveniles being released into the rivers caged in ‘mussels silos’ (protective
concrete domes with ventilation creating upwelling to ensure water through flow). We
released 240 juvenile mussels and survival and growth rates were monitored for 18 months
post-release for three size classes: A (13.01-20.00mm); B (10.01-13.00mm); and C (4.01-
10.00mm). We explicitly tested two experimental treatments; one where sediment was added
to each silo (allowing mussels to orientate and burrow) and one without sediment. Survival
by the end of the experiment at month 18 was significantly higher for the largest size class at
97% (though growth was lowest in this cohort), and lowest for the smallest size class at 61%
(though growth was highest in this cohort). Survival and growth were unaffected by the
experimental treatment suggesting that adding sediment offered no advantage. Growth was
positively correlated with both water temperature and the particle size of suspended solids
(both of which were collinear, peaking in summer). There are a large number of ex situ
breeding programmes for freshwater pearl mussels throughout Europe and our finding
suggest that the use of ‘mussel silos’ could be a useful tool to protecting juvenile mussels
allowing them to be released at a relatively early stage of development, minimising the risk of
domestication.

Développement de matériaux à base de protéines extraites du byssus de la moule bleue Mytilus edulis

Le byssus est un amas de fibres que les moules produisent afin de s’ancrer aux surfaces immergées sous l’eau. Ces fibres sont pourvues de propriétés mécaniques impressionnantes combinant rigidité, élasticité et ténacité élevées. De plus, elles possèdent un comportement d’auto-guérison de leurs propriétés mécaniques en fonction du temps lorsque la contrainte initialement appliquée est retirée. Les propriétés mécaniques de ces fibres sont le résultat de l’agencement hiérarchique de protéines de type copolymère blocs riches en collagène et de la présence de métaux formant des liens sacrificiels réversibles avec certains acides aminés comme les DOPA et les histidines. Bien que cette fibre soit très intéressante pour la production de matériaux grâce à son contenu élevé en collagène potentiellement biocompatible, cette ressource naturelle est traitée comme un déchet par les mytiliculteurs. L’objectif de cette thèse était de valoriser cette fibre en extrayant les protéines pour générer une nouvelle classe de matériaux biomimétiques. Un hydrolysat de protéines de byssus (BPH) riche en acides aminés chargés, i.e. ~30 % mol, et permettant de former des films a pu être généré. Lorsque solubilisé à pH 10.5, le BPH forme un hydrogel contenant des structures en triple hélice de collagène et des feuillets β anti-parallèles intra- et inter-moléculaires. Suite à l’évaporation de l’eau, le film de BPH résultant est insoluble en milieu aqueux à cause des structures secondaires très stables agissant comme points de réticulation effectifs. Les propriétés mécaniques des films de BPH sont modulables en fonction du pH. Au point isoélectrique (pI = 4.5), les interactions électrostatiques entre les charges opposées agissent comme points de réticulation et augmentent la rigidité des films et leur contrainte à la rupture sans affecter la déformation à la rupture. À pH plus élevé ou plus bas que le pI, les performances mécaniques des films sont plus faibles à cause de la répulsion entre les groupements fonctionnels de même charge qui interagissent plutôt avec les molécules d’eau et causent le gonflement de la matrice protéique des films. Le BPH contenant un nombre élevé d’acides aminés chargés et réactifs, nous avons pu réticuler les films de manière covalente à l’aide d’EDC ou de glutaraldéhyde. Les propriétés mécaniques des films sont modulables en fonction de la concentration d’EDC utilisée lors de la réticulation ou en employant du glutaraldéhyde comme agent réticulant. Les films sont à la fois plus rigides et plus forts avec un degré de réticulation élevé, mais perdent leur extensibilité à mesure que les segments libres de s’étirer lors d’une traction deviennent entravés par les points de réticulation. La réticulation augmente également la résistance à la dégradation enzymatique par la collagénase, les films les plus fortement réticulés lui étant pratiquement insensibles. La spectroscopie infrarouge montre enfin que la réticulation entraîne une transition de feuillets β anti-parallèles inter-moléculaires vers des structures de type hélices de collagène/PPII hydratées. Des liens sacrificiels ont été formés dans les films de BPH par traitement au pI et/ou avec différents métaux, i.e. Na+, Ca2+, Fe3+, afin de moduler les propriétés mécaniques statiques et d’évaluer le rôle de ces traitements sur le comportement d’auto-guérison lors de tests mécaniques cycliques avec différents temps de repos. Plus la valence des ions métalliques ajoutés augmente, plus les propriétés mécaniques statiques affichent un module, une contrainte à la rupture et une ténacité élevés sans toutefois affecter la déformation à la rupture, confirmant la formation de liens sacrificiels. Les tests mécaniques cycliques montrent que les traitements au pI ou avec Ca2+ créent des liens sacrificiels ioniques réversibles qui mènent à un processus d’auto-guérison des performances mécaniques dépendant du pH. L’ajout de Fe3+ à différentes concentrations module les performances mécaniques sur un plus large intervalle et la nature plus covalente de son interaction avec les acides aminés permet d’atteindre des valeurs nettement plus élevées que les autres traitements étudiés. Le Fe3+ permet aussi la formation de liens sacrificiels réversibles menant à l’auto-guérison des propriétés mécaniques. Les spectroscopies Raman et infrarouge confirment que le fer crée des liaisons avec plusieurs acides aminés, dont les histidines et les DOPA. Les résultats dans leur ensemble démontrent que les films de BPH sont des hydrogels biomimétiques du byssus qui peuvent être traités ou réticulés de différentes façons afin de moduler leurs performances mécaniques. Ils pourraient ainsi servir de matrices pour des applications potentielles dans le domaine pharmaceutique ou en ingénierie tissulaire.

Relations entre apports terrigènes et conchyliculture dans les Pertuis Charentais

This work presents interactions between quantitative and qualitative river freshwater inputs and the shellfish farming (oyster and mussel) in the Pertuis Charentais. The quantity of freshwater (i.e. salinity) seems to have a weak influence on the shellfish farming contrarily to its quality determined by particulate and dissolved matters contained in the water. In autumn and winter, large precipitations have a "globally positive" effect amending the coastal ecosystem. Associated dissolved nutriments and the organic matter largely determine the quality of the coming spring growth for bred shellfish, itself controlling in turn the annual yield efficiencies. However, in winter their effects are postponed because of strong mineral load, low luminosity and temperature, then limiting the primary production. The spring contributions, directly linked to territorial practices, agriculture and tourism are more variable in quantity and quality from one year to another. They often correspond to high-risk inflows since numerous substances from anthropogenic watersheds can be found diluted in the coastal zone as in the Pertuis Charentais. Their impacts on in situ estuarine ecosystems are still poorly known since these substances are mainly studied and estimated in laboratory in controlled conditions. Several studies showed anthropogenic contaminations (i.e. cadmium, pesticides) could have significant direct or indirect effects on shellfish farming. For instance, the "summer" mortalities between 1990 and 2000 in the South of the Marennes-Oléron bay (MOB), that induced environmental and physiological oyster disorders, could be linked to pesticide effects, measured during consecutive years on the oyster bed of Ronce Perquis in the South of the MOB. The weak results from the spring larval rearing of the IFREMER experimental hatchery in the South of the bay, and chromosomal abnormalities measured on the stocks of wild oysters of the Pertuis could confirm a high-risk spring environment for the shellfish farming. In summer terrestrial inputs are reduced by low precipitations, anthropogenic water removals (drinking water, irrigation) and by plant evapotranspiration. Consequently certain years, a significant salinity increase in water masses of the Pertuis Charentais is observed. However, based on long-term observations, the significant interannual variability noticed in freshwater contributions constitutes one of the most important facts of these last years. When contributions are weak (i.e. 1991 and 2011), the mean annual salinity is 34.5 in the MOB. To the contrary, other years (i.e. 1977, 1981, 1983 and 1988), the mean salinity reduced to 30.5 shows the significant freshwater contributions to the bay. Elsewhere, particularly in the mediterranean region, oyster breeding water conditions characterized by high salinity values show the freshwater does not seem to be necessary for biological functions of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Indeed, the oyster embryonic life in particular is well adapted to high salinity values as long as trophic resources are substantial and temperatures remain high. These two factors firstly condition the embryonic survival before the water salinity. Besides, in the Pertuis Charentais, wind conditions and the geographical bloodstock position rather determine the success of the larvae capture than seawater physic-chemical conditions. Finally, a misunderstanding still remains on summer freshwater contributions to the oyster larvae food supply.

Climate Change Influences Carrying Capacity in a Coastal Embayment Dedicated to Shellfish Aquaculture

A spatially explicit coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was developed to study a coastal ecosystem under the combined effects of mussel aquaculture, nutrient loading and climate change. The model was applied to St Peter's Bay (SPB), Prince Edward Island, Eastern Canada. Approximately 40 % of the SPB area is dedicated to mussel (Mytilus edulis) longline culture. Results indicate that the two main food sources for mussels, phytoplankton and organic detritus, are most depleted in the central part of the embayment. Results also suggest that the system is near its ultimate capacity, a state where the energy cycle is restricted to nitrogen-phytoplankton-detritus-mussels with few resources left to be transferred to higher trophic levels. Annually, mussel meat harvesting extracts nitrogen (N) resources equivalent to 42 % of river inputs or 46.5 % of the net phytoplankton primary production. Under such extractive pressure, the phytoplankton biomass is being curtailed to 1980's levels when aquaculture was not yet developed and N loading was half the present level. Current mussel stocks also decrease bay-scale sedimentation rates by 14 %. Finally, a climate change scenario (year 2050) predicted a 30 % increase in mussel production, largely driven by more efficient utilization of the phytoplankton spring bloom. However, the predicted elevated summer temperatures (> 25 A degrees C) may also have deleterious physiological effects on mussels and possibly increase summer mortality levels. In conclusion, cultivated bivalves may play an important role in remediating the negative impacts of land-derived nutrient loading. Climate change may lead to increases in production and ecological carrying capacity as long as the cultivated species can tolerate warmer summer conditions.

High resolution mass spectrometry for quantitative analysis and untargeted screening of algal toxins in mussels and passive samplers

Measurement of marine algal toxins has traditionally focussed on shellfish monitoring while, over the last decade, passive sampling has been introduced as a complementary tool for exploratory studies. Since 2011, liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has been adopted as the EU reference method (No.15/2011) for detection and quantitation of lipophilic toxins. Traditional LC-MS approaches have been based on low-resolution mass spectrometry (LRMS), however, advances in instrument platforms have led to a heightened interest in the use of high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) for toxin detection. This work describes the use of HRMS in combination with passive sampling as a progressive approach to marine algal toxin surveys. Experiments focused on comparison of LRMS and HRMS for determination of a broad range of toxins in shellfish and passive samplers. Matrix effects are an important issue to address in LC-MS; therefore, this phenomenon was evaluated for mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) and passive samplers using LRMS (triple quadrupole) and HRMS (quadrupole time-of-flight and Orbitrap) instruments. Matrix-matched calibration solutions containing okadaic acid and dinophysistoxins, pectenotoxin, azaspiracids, yessotoxins, domoic acid, pinnatoxins, gymnodimine A and 13-desmethyl spirolide C were prepared. Similar matrix effects were observed on all instruments types. Most notably, there was ion enhancement for pectenotoxins, okadaic acid/dinophysistoxins on one hand, and ion suppression for yessotoxins on the other. Interestingly, the ion selected for quantitation of PTX2 also influenced the magnitude of matrix effects, with the sodium adduct typically exhibiting less susceptibility to matrix effects than the ammonium adduct. As expected, mussel as a biological matrix, quantitatively produced significantly more matrix effects than passive sampler extracts, irrespective of toxin. Sample dilution was demonstrated as an effective measure to reduce matrix effects for all compounds, and was found to be particularly useful for the non-targeted approach. Limits of detection and method accuracy were comparable between the systems tested, demonstrating the applicability of HRMS as an effective tool for screening and quantitative analysis. HRMS offers the advantage of untargeted analysis, meaning that datasets can be retrospectively analysed. HRMS (full scan) chromatograms of passive samplers yielded significantly less complex data sets than mussels, and were thus more easily screened for unknowns. Consequently, we recommend the use of HRMS in combination with passive sampling for studies investigating emerging or hitherto uncharacterised toxins.

Informing Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) with numerical modelling: A case-study on shellfish aquaculture in Malpeque Bay (Eastern Canada)

A moratorium on further bivalve leasing was established in 1999–2000 in Prince Edward Island (Canada). Recently, a marine spatial planning process was initiated explore potential mussel culture expansion in Malpeque Bay. This study focuses on the effects of a projected expansion scenario on productivity of existing leases and available suspended food resources. The aim is to provide a robust scientific assessment using available datasets and three modelling approaches ranging in complexity: (1) a connectivity analysis among culture areas; (2) a scenario analysis of organic seston dynamics based on a simplified biogeochemical model; and (3) a scenario analysis of phytoplankton dynamics based on an ecosystem model. These complementary approaches suggest (1) new leases can affect existing culture both through direct connectivity and through bay-scale effects driven by the overall increase in mussel biomass, and (2) a net reduction of phytoplankton within the bounds of its natural variation in the area.