Previsione di temporali tramite indici di instabilità ed alberi decisionali

La previsione dei temporali rappresenta una delle operazioni più impegnative e complesse per chi svolge il mestiere di meteorologo, soprattutto se effettuata con molte ore di anticipo rispetto all'evento; ciò è riconducibile alla molteplicità di parametri da cui questi fenomeni dipendono ed all'incertezza che si riscontra nella simulazione degli indici di instabilità. In questo elaborato viene presentata ed approfondita una tecnica di elaborazione dei dati provenienti da radiosondaggi previsti, con lo scopo di migliorare la previsione dei temporali relativa al giorno successivo. Nel 1987 Colquhoun elaborò un albero decisionale per la previsione di temporali in Australia, basato sul superamento di soglie degli indici di instabilità. Qui di seguito, si propone di testare la validità dello stesso schema decisionale alla previsione di temporali in Pianura Padana ed in particolare in Emilia Romagna, procedendo ad un confronto tra gli eventi previsti ed i fenomeni osservati; la previsione si basa sull'output dell'albero decisionale utilizzando gli indici di instabilità previsti dai LAM COSMO-I7 e COSMO-I2 nel periodo +24/+48 ore, mentre l'osservazione dei temporali viene ricavata tramite consultazione quotidiana di METAR,SYNOP,SYREP, e mappe di fulminazioni relative al quadriennio 2010-2013. L'indice assunto per valutare l'affidabilità delle previsioni fornite è il Threat Score che presenta due limiti fondamentali: la dipendenza dal numero di eventi e l'incapacità di differenziare i falsi allarmi dai mancati allarmi. Ciò nonostante, questo indice rappresenta il miglior modo per ricavare una informazione complessiva e definire se la previsione fornita corrisponde ad una buona previsione. Lo stesso test viene effettuato sull'albero decisionale in uso presso la sala operativa di ARPA-SIM e dal confronto con l'albero di Colquhoun si deducono i limiti legati alla modellistica numerica che fornisce i dati in input. Infine il test sui parametri termodinamici previsti dai modelli COSMO-I2 e COSMO-I7 dimostra gli errori commessi sulla previsione a +24 e +36 ore dalle simulazioni. Questo lavoro si pone all'interno di un progetto più ampio di verifica della modellistica numerica sviluppata dal consorzio COSMO, al quale l'Italia aderisce attraverso la collaborazione di ARPA Emilia Romagna, ARPA Piemonte ed Aeronautica Militare. In particolare sono sottoposte a test le performances dei due modelli LAM sviluppati completamente in Italia ed utilizzati anche dal Dipartimento della protezione civile nazionale.

Fault detection, diagnosis and active fault tolerant control for a satellite attitude control system

Modern control systems are becoming more and more complex and control algorithms more and more sophisticated. Consequently, Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) and Fault Tolerant Control (FTC) have gained central importance over the past decades, due to the increasing requirements of availability, cost efficiency, reliability and operating safety. This thesis deals with the FDD and FTC problems in a spacecraft Attitude Determination and Control System (ADCS). Firstly, the detailed nonlinear models of the spacecraft attitude dynamics and kinematics are described, along with the dynamic models of the actuators and main external disturbance sources. The considered ADCS is composed of an array of four redundant reaction wheels. A set of sensors provides satellite angular velocity, attitude and flywheel spin rate information. Then, general overviews of the Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI), Fault Estimation (FE) and Fault Tolerant Control (FTC) problems are presented, and the design and implementation of a novel diagnosis system is described. The system consists of a FDI module composed of properly organized model-based residual filters, exploiting the available input and output information for the detection and localization of an occurred fault. A proper fault mapping procedure and the nonlinear geometric approach are exploited to design residual filters explicitly decoupled from the external aerodynamic disturbance and sensitive to specific sets of faults. The subsequent use of suitable adaptive FE algorithms, based on the exploitation of radial basis function neural networks, allows to obtain accurate fault estimations. Finally, this estimation is actively exploited in a FTC scheme to achieve a suitable fault accommodation and guarantee the desired control performances. A standard sliding mode controller is implemented for attitude stabilization and control. Several simulation results are given to highlight the performances of the overall designed system in case of different types of faults affecting the ADCS actuators and sensors.

Miglioramento delle performance termiche e energetiche degli edifici rurali: valutazione del retrofit di locali per la conservazione del vino su casi studio

Il presente studio si colloca all’interno di una ricerca più ampia volta alla definizione di criteri progettuali finalizzati all’ottimizzazione delle prestazioni energetiche delle cantine di aziende vitivinicole, di dimensioni produttive medio - piccole. Nello specifico la ricerca riguarda la riqualificazione di fabbricati rurali esistenti di modeste dimensioni, da convertire a magazzini per la conservazione del vino in bottiglia. Lo studio si pone come obiettivo la definizione di criteri di analisi per la valutazione di interventi di retrofit di tali fabbricati, volto sia al miglioramento delle prestazioni energetiche dell’involucro edilizio, sia alla riduzione del fabbisogno energetico legato al funzionamento di eventuali impianti di controllo termico. La ricerca è stata condotta mediante l’utilizzo del software di simulazione termica Energy Plus, per ottenere i valori simulati di temperatura interna relativi ai diversi scenari migliorativi ipotizzati, e mediante la successiva definizione di indicatori che esplicitino l’influenza delle principali variabili progettuali sull’andamento delle temperature interne dei locali di conservazione e sul fabbisogno energetico del fabbricato necessario a garantire l’intervallo di temperatura di comfort del vino. Tra tutti gli interventi possibili per il miglioramento della prestazione energetica degli edifici, quelli analizzati in questo studio prevedono l’aggiunta di un isolamento a cappotto delle pareti esterne, l’isolamento della copertura e l’aggiunta di una struttura ombreggiante vegetale esterna. I risultati ottenuti danno una prima indicazione sugli interventi più efficaci in termini di miglioramento energetico e mettono in luce l’utilità del criterio proposto nell’evidenziare le criticità degli interventi migliorativi ipotizzati. Il metodo definito nella presente ricerca risulta quindi un valido strumento di valutazione a supporto della progettazione degli interventi di retrofit dei fabbricati rurali da convertire a magazzini per la conservazione del vino.

Modelling biogeochemical cycles in forest ecosystems: a Bayesian approach

Forest models are tools for explaining and predicting the dynamics of forest ecosystems. They simulate forest behavior by integrating information on the underlying processes in trees, soil and atmosphere. Bayesian calibration is the application of probability theory to parameter estimation. It is a method, applicable to all models, that quantifies output uncertainty and identifies key parameters and variables. This study aims at testing the Bayesian procedure for calibration to different types of forest models, to evaluate their performances and the uncertainties associated with them. In particular,we aimed at 1) applying a Bayesian framework to calibrate forest models and test their performances in different biomes and different environmental conditions, 2) identifying and solve structure-related issues in simple models, and 3) identifying the advantages of additional information made available when calibrating forest models with a Bayesian approach. We applied the Bayesian framework to calibrate the Prelued model on eight Italian eddy-covariance sites in Chapter 2. The ability of Prelued to reproduce the estimated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) was tested over contrasting natural vegetation types that represented a wide range of climatic and environmental conditions. The issues related to Prelued's multiplicative structure were the main topic of Chapter 3: several different MCMC-based procedures were applied within a Bayesian framework to calibrate the model, and their performances were compared. A more complex model was applied in Chapter 4, focusing on the application of the physiology-based model HYDRALL to the forest ecosystem of Lavarone (IT) to evaluate the importance of additional information in the calibration procedure and their impact on model performances, model uncertainties, and parameter estimation. Overall, the Bayesian technique proved to be an excellent and versatile tool to successfully calibrate forest models of different structure and complexity, on different kind and number of variables and with a different number of parameters involved.

Study of the performances of the H->ZZ*->4l analysis with the CMS phase-II upgrade

The performances of the H → ZZ* → 4l analysis are studied in the context of the High Luminosity upgrade of the LHC collider, with the CMS detector. The high luminosity (up to L = 5 × 10^34 cm−2s−1) of the accelerator poses very challenging experimental con- ditions. In particular, the number of overlapping events per bunch crossing will increase to 140. To cope with this difficult environment, the CMS detector will be upgraded in two stages: Phase-I and Phase-II. The tools used in the analysis are the CMS Full Simulation and the fast parametrized Delphes simulation. A validation of Delphes with respect to the Full Simulation is performed, using reference Phase-I detector samples. Delphes is then used to simulate the Phase-II detector response. The Phase-II configuration is compared with the Phase-I detector and the same Phase-I detector affected by aging processes, both modeled with the Full Simulation framework. Conclusions on these three scenarios are derived: the degradation in performances observed with the “aged” scenario shows that a major upgrade of the detector is mandatory. The specific upgrade configuration studied allows to keep the same performances as in Phase-I and, in the case of the four-muons channel, even to exceed them.

Synthesis, characterization and catalytic performances of ruthenium-based catalysts for the acceptorless dehydrogenative coupling of butanol

A growing interest towards new sources of energy has led in recent years to the development of a new generation of catalysts for alcohol dehydrogenative coupling (ADC). This green, atom-efficient reaction is capable of turning alcohol derivatives into higher value and chemically more attractive ester molecules, and it finds interesting applications in the transformation of the large variety of products deriving from biomass. In the present work, a new series of ruthenium-PNP pincer complexes are investigated for the transformation of 1-butanol, one of the most challenging substrates for this type of reactions, into butyl butyrate, a short-chain symmetrical ester widely used in flavor industries. Since the reaction kinetics depends on hydrogen diffusion, the study aimed at identifying proper reactor type and right catalyst concentration to avoid mass transfer interferences and to get dependable data. A comparison between catalytic activities and productivities has been made to establish the role of the different ligands bonded both to the PNP binder and to the ruthenium metal center, and hence to find the best catalyst for this type of reaction.

L'influenza della preferenza manuale nell'interpretazione di conferenza: un contributo sperimentale

This study is based on a former student’s work, aimed at examining the influence of handedness on conference interpreting. In simultaneous interpreting (IS) both cerebral hemispheres participate in the decoding of the incoming message and in the activation of the motor functions for the production of the output signal. In right-handers language functions are mainly located in the left hemisphere, while left-handers have a more symmetrical representation of language functions. Given that with the development of interpreting skills and a long work experience the interpreters’ brain becomes less lateralized for language functions, in an initial phase left-handers may be «neurobiologically better suited for interpreting tasks» (Gran and Fabbro 1988: 37). To test this hypothesis, 9 students (5 right-handers and 4 left-handers) participated in a dual test of simultaneous and consecutive interpretation (CI) from English into Italian. The subjects were asked to interpret one text with their preferred ear and the other with the non-preferred one, since according neuropsychology aural symmetry reflects cerebral symmetry. The aim of this study was to analyze:1) the differences between the number of errors in consecutive and simultaneous interpretation with the preferred and non-preferred ear; 2) the differences in performance (in terms of number of errors) between right-handed and left-handed, both with the preferred and non-preferred ear; 3) the most frequent types of errors in right and left-handers; 4) the influence of the degree of handedness on interpreting quality. The students’ performances were analyzed in terms of errors of meaning, errors of numbers, omissions of text, omissions of numbers, inaccuracies, errors of nexus, and unfinished sentences. The results showed that: 1) in SI subjects committed fewer errors interpreting with the preferred ear, whereas in CI a slight advantage of the non-preferred ear was observed. Moreover, in CI, right-handers committed fewer mistakes with the non-preferred ear than with the preferred one. 2) The total performance of left-handers proved to be better than that of right-handers. 3) In SI left-handers committed fewer errors of meaning and fewer errors of number than right-handers, whereas in CI left-handers committed fewer errors of meaning and more errors of number than right-handers 4) As the degree of left-handedness increases, the number of errors committed also increases. Moreover, there is a statistically significant left-ear advantage for right-handers and a right-ear one for left-handers. Finally, those who interpreted with their right ear committed fewer errors of number than those who have used their left ear or both ears.

Studio e realizzazione di un "timing circuit" e "output circuit" per pacemaker

Nell'elaborato è stato svolto uno studio su più livelli degli elementi essenziali del pacemaker asincrono secondo la realizzazione circuitale proposta da Wilson Greatbatch nel 1960. Un primo livello ha riguardato l’analisi teorica del circuito. Un secondo livello ha riguardato un’analisi svolta con LTSPICE. Con questo stesso programma, si è analizzato il segnale di temporizzazione e la forma d’onda sul carico al variare del valore di alcuni componenti chiave del circuito. Infine, si è proceduto alla sua realizzazione su breadboard.

Investigation of petabyte-scale data transfer performances with PhEDEx for the CMS experiment

PhEDEx, the CMS transfer management system, during the first LHC Run has moved about 150 PB and currently it is moving about 2.5 PB of data per week over the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLGC). It was designed to complete each transfer required by users at the expense of the waiting time necessary for its completion. For this reason, after several years of operations, data regarding transfer latencies has been collected and stored into log files containing useful analyzable informations. Then, starting from the analysis of several typical CMS transfer workflows, a categorization of such latencies has been made with a focus on the different factors that contribute to the transfer completion time. The analysis presented in this thesis will provide the necessary information for equipping PhEDEx in the future with a set of new tools in order to proactively identify and fix any latency issues. PhEDEx, il sistema di gestione dei trasferimenti di CMS, durante il primo Run di LHC ha trasferito all’incirca 150 PB ed attualmente trasferisce circa 2.5 PB di dati alla settimana attraverso la Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG). Questo sistema è stato progettato per completare ogni trasferimento richiesto dall’utente a spese del tempo necessario per il suo completamento. Dopo svariati anni di operazioni con tale strumento, sono stati raccolti dati relativi alle latenze di trasferimento ed immagazzinati in log files contenenti informazioni utili per l’analisi. A questo punto, partendo dall’analisi di una ampia mole di trasferimenti in CMS, è stata effettuata una suddivisione di queste latenze ponendo particolare attenzione nei confronti dei fattori che contribuiscono al tempo di completamento del trasferimento. L’analisi presentata in questa tesi permetterà di equipaggiare PhEDEx con un insieme di utili strumenti in modo tale da identificare proattivamente queste latenze e adottare le opportune tattiche per minimizzare l’impatto sugli utenti finali.

Comparison of calibrated and uncalibrated arterial pressure-based cardiac output monitors during orthotopic liver transplantation

Arterial pressure-based cardiac output monitors (APCOs) are increasingly used as alternatives to thermodilution. Validation of these evolving technologies in high-risk surgery is still ongoing. In liver transplantation, FloTrac-Vigileo (Edwards Lifesciences) has limited correlation with thermodilution, whereas LiDCO Plus (LiDCO Ltd.) has not been tested intraoperatively. Our goal was to directly compare the 2 proprietary APCO algorithms as alternatives to pulmonary artery catheter thermodilution in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). The cardiac index (CI) was measured simultaneously in 20 OLT patients at prospectively defined surgical landmarks with the LiDCO Plus monitor (CI(L)) and the FloTrac-Vigileo monitor (CI(V)). LiDCO Plus was calibrated according to the manufacturer's instructions. FloTrac-Vigileo did not require calibration. The reference CI was derived from pulmonary artery catheter intermittent thermodilution (CI(TD)). CI(V)-CI(TD) bias ranged from -1.38 (95% confidence interval = -2.02 to -0.75 L/minute/m(2), P = 0.02) to -2.51 L/minute/m(2) (95% confidence interval = -3.36 to -1.65 L/minute/m(2), P < 0.001), and CI(L)-CI(TD) bias ranged from -0.65 (95% confidence interval = -1.29 to -0.01 L/minute/m(2), P = 0.047) to -1.48 L/minute/m(2) (95% confidence interval = -2.37 to -0.60 L/minute/m(2), P < 0.01). For both APCOs, bias to CI(TD) was correlated with the systemic vascular resistance index, with a stronger dependence for FloTrac-Vigileo. The capability of the APCOs for tracking changes in CI(TD) was assessed with a 4-quadrant plot for directional changes and with receiver operating characteristic curves for specificity and sensitivity. The performance of both APCOs was poor in detecting increases and fair in detecting decreases in CI(TD). In conclusion, the calibrated and uncalibrated APCOs perform differently during OLT. Although the calibrated APCO is less influenced by changes in the systemic vascular resistance, neither device can be used interchangeably with thermodilution to monitor cardiac output during liver transplantation.

Comparison of non-calibrated pulse-contour analysis with continuous thermodilution for cardiac output assessment in patients with induced hypothermia after cardiac arrest

Induced mild hypothermia after cardiac arrest interferes with clinical assessment of the cardiovascular status of patients. In this situation, non-invasive cardiac output measurement could be useful. Unfortunately, arterial pulse contour is altered by temperature, and the performance of devices using arterial blood pressure contour analysis to derive cardiac output may be insufficient.

Early non-invasive cardiac output monitoring in hemodynamically unstable intensive care patients: A multi-center randomized controlled trial

Introduction Acute hemodynamic instability increases morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether early non-invasive cardiac output monitoring enhances hemodynamic stabilization and improves outcome. Methods A multicenter, randomized controlled trial was conducted in three European university hospital intensive care units in 2006 and 2007. A total of 388 hemodynamically unstable patients identified during their first six hours in the intensive care unit (ICU) were randomized to receive either non-invasive cardiac output monitoring for 24 hrs (minimally invasive cardiac output/MICO group; n = 201) or usual care (control group; n = 187). The main outcome measure was the proportion of patients achieving hemodynamic stability within six hours of starting the study. Results The number of hemodynamic instability criteria at baseline (MICO group mean 2.0 (SD 1.0), control group 1.8 (1.0); P = .06) and severity of illness (SAPS II score; MICO group 48 (18), control group 48 (15); P = .86)) were similar. At 6 hrs, 45 patients (22%) in the MICO group and 52 patients (28%) in the control group were hemodynamically stable (mean difference 5%; 95% confidence interval of the difference -3 to 14%; P = .24). Hemodynamic support with fluids and vasoactive drugs, and pulmonary artery catheter use (MICO group: 19%, control group: 26%; P = .11) were similar in the two groups. The median length of ICU stay was 2.0 (interquartile range 1.2 to 4.6) days in the MICO group and 2.5 (1.1 to 5.0) days in the control group (P = .38). The hospital mortality was 26% in the MICO group and 21% in the control group (P = .34). Conclusions Minimally-invasive cardiac output monitoring added to usual care does not facilitate early hemodynamic stabilization in the ICU, nor does it alter the hemodynamic support or outcome. Our results emphasize the need to evaluate technologies used to measure stroke volume and cardiac output--especially their impact on the process of care--before any large-scale outcome studies are attempted.

Co2-dependent vasomotor reactivity of cerebral arteries in patients with severe traumatic brain injury: time course and effect of augmentation of cardiac output with dobutamine

Failing cerebral blood flow (CBF) autoregulation may contribute to cerebral damage after traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose of this study was to describe the time course of CO(2)-dependent vasoreactivity, measured as CBF velocity in response to hyperventilation (vasomotor reactivity [VMR] index). We included 13 patients who had had severe TBI, 8 of whom received norepinephrine (NE) based on clinical indication. In these patients, measurements were also performed after dobutamine administration, with a goal of increasing cardiac output by 30%. Blood flow velocity was measured with transcranial Doppler ultrasound in both hemispheres. All patients except one had an abnormal VMR index in at least one hemisphere within the first 24 h after TBI. In those patients who did not receive catecholamines, mean VMR index recovered within the first 48 to 72 h. In contrast, in patients who received NE within the first 48 h period, VMR index did not recover on the second day. Cardiac output and mean CBF velocity increased significantly during dobutamine administration, but VMR index did not change significantly. In conclusion, CO(2) vasomotor reactivity was abnormal in the first 24 h after TBI in most of the patients, but recovered within 48 h in those patients who did not receive NE, in contrast to those eventually receiving the drug. Addition of dobutamine to NE had variable but overall insignificant effects on CO(2) vasomotor reactivity.