Long-Term Care Options, March 26, 2015

Information on when and how best to explore Long-Term Care options on a power point presentation.

Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting

unpublished

Impacts of fishery activities on lake shore environment and options for sustainable management

Over the years, degradation of the lakeshore resources has been going on due to human induced activities. Human activities notably house construction, fish smoking, boat construction and cooking at the landings impact the tree and forest cover along the lakeshore and Islands. The survey was conducted in ten districts surrounding Lake Victoria and the landings sampled were selected with the help of the District Fisheries Officers. Data was obtained from selected fishermen and Key informants at these landing sites. The study examined the extent of knowledge on importance, utilization, threats and conservation of trees/forests at the landings. Results showed that the fishers (98%) were aware of the benefits derived from the trees/forests. According to the respondents, the most commonly used tree species for boat construction were Mvule (40%), Mkibu (20%), Musizi (17%) and Mpewere (11 %). This was mainly because these trees were durable. For house construction, Nsambya (25%), Musizi (24%) and other materials (12%) were the most commonly used. For other activities like fish smoking and cooking at the landing, the Fisherfolk used any type of tree species readily available at the landings. As regards the status of the trees at the landings, most of the respondents (72%) J agreed that due to some fishery related activities some tree species had reduced more than others in the vicinity of most landings. Most respondents said that the, most reduced tree species around the landings were Mvule (36%) and Musizi (22%). Among the fishery related activities that had a significant impact on the trees/forests, construction of houses (44%) and boats (22%) emerged uppermost. Other activities such as fish smoking (14%) and cooking (12%) had the least impact on trees/forests. Generally, there was extensive reduction of trees at the landings. Therefore there was need to regulate cutting of trees and to have specific programmes targeting afforestation at and around fish landings.

A generic method of engagement to elicit regional coastal management options

Stakeholder engagement is important for successful management of natural resources, both to make effective decisions and to obtain support. However, in the context of coastal management, questions remain unanswered on how to effectively link decisions made at the catchment level with objectives for marine biodiversity and fisheries productivity. Moreover, there is much uncertainty on how to best elicit community input in a rigorous manner that supports management decisions. A decision support process is described that uses the adaptive management loop as its basis to elicit management objectives, priorities and management options using two case studies in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The approach described is then generalised for international interest. A hierarchical engagement model of local stakeholders, regional and senior managers is used. The result is a semi-quantitative generic elicitation framework that ultimately provides a prioritised list of management options in the context of clearly articulated management objectives that has widespread application for coastal communities worldwide. The case studies show that demand for local input and regional management is high, but local influences affect the relative success of both engagement processes and uptake by managers. Differences between case study outcomes highlight the importance of discussing objectives prior to suggesting management actions, and avoiding or minimising conflicts at the early stages of the process. Strong contributors to success are a) the provision of local information to the community group, and b) the early inclusion of senior managers and influencers in the group to ensure the intellectual and time investment is not compromised at the final stages of the process. The project has uncovered a conundrum in the significant gap between the way managers perceive their management actions and outcomes, and community's perception of the effectiveness (and wisdom) of these same management actions.

Options for poverty reduction through community empowerment towards sustainable fisheries resource production and equity

The current situation is that, by any measure, most fisheries worldwide are fully over exploited. This is also true of the Uganda's fisheries where the effort needed to catch fish has increased, and the average size of fish and of stocks have both declined. A productive fisheries offers many benefits: food for local consumption; raw materials for industry; employment that generates income, which in turn encourages other industrial, commercial and service activities; export markets that can be identified and met to generate hard currency, The national economy also benefits from import substitution and·opportunities for increased taxation. But for fisheries to be productive it is not enough to produce, products must be marketed. Fishers have to learn the lesson that it is no longer enough to expect production to drive the market; success will come from producing what the market demands. It is hoped that co-management can play a big role in harnessing the various energies for sustainable development and management of the fisheries resources.

Climate Clever Beef: options to improve business performance and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in northern Australia

The Rangeland Journal – Climate Clever Beef special issue examines options for the beef industry in northern Australia to contribute to the reduction in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to engage in the carbon economy. Relative to its gross value (A$5 billion), the northern beef industry is responsible for a sizable proportion of national reportable GHG emissions (8–10%) through enteric methane, savanna burning, vegetation clearing and land degradation. The industry occupies large areas of land and has the potential to impact the carbon cycle by sequestering carbon or reducing carbon loss. Furthermore, much of the industry is currently not achieving its productivity potential, which suggests that there are opportunities to improve the emissions intensity of beef production. Improving the industry’s GHG emissions performance is important for its environmental reputation and may benefit individual businesses through improved production efficiency and revenue from the carbon economy. The Climate Clever Beef initiative collaborated with beef businesses in six regions across northern Australia to better understand the links between GHG emissions and carbon stocks, land condition, herd productivity and profitability. The current performance of businesses was measured and alternate management options were identified and evaluated. Opportunities to participate in the carbon economy through the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) were also assessed. The initiative achieved significant producer engagement and collaboration resulting in practice change by 78 people from 35 businesses, managing more than 1 272 000 ha and 132 000 cattle. Carbon farming opportunities were identified that could improve both business performance and emissions intensity. However, these opportunities were not without significant risks, trade-offs and limitations particularly in relation to business scale, and uncertainty in carbon price and the response of soil and vegetation carbon sequestration to management. This paper discusses opportunities for reducing emissions, improving emission intensity and carbon sequestration, and outlines the approach taken to achieve beef business engagement and practice change. The paper concludes with some considerations for policy makers.

An evaluation of carbon offset supplementation options for beef production systems on coastal speargrass in central Queensland, Australia

In 2014, the Australian Government implemented the Emissions Reduction Fund to offer incentives for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by following approved methods. Beef cattle businesses in northern Australia can participate by applying the 'reducing GHG emissions by feeding nitrates to beef cattle' methodology and the 'beef cattle herd management' methods. The nitrate (NO3) method requires that each baseline area must demonstrate a history of urea use. Projects earn Australian carbon credit units (ACCU) for reducing enteric methane emissions by substituting NO3 for urea at the same amount of fed nitrogen. NO3 must be fed in the form of a lick block because most operations do not have labour or equipment to manage daily supplementation. NO3 concentrations, after a 2-week adaptation period, must not exceed 50 g NO3/adult animal equivalent per day or 7 g NO3/kg dry matter intake per day to reduce the risk of NO3 toxicity. There is also a 'beef cattle herd management' method, approved in 2015, that covers activities that improve the herd emission intensity (emissions per unit of product sold) through change in the diet or management. The present study was conducted to compare the required ACCU or supplement prices for a 2% return on capital when feeding a low or high supplement concentration to breeding stock of either (1) urea, (2) three different forms of NO3 or (3) cottonseed meal (CSM), at N concentrations equivalent to 25 or 50 g urea/animal equivalent, to fasten steer entry to a feedlot (backgrounding), in a typical breeder herd on the coastal speargrass land types in central Queensland. Monte Carlo simulations were run using the software @risk, with probability functions used for (1) urea, NO3 and CSM prices, (2) GHG mitigation, (3) livestock prices and (4) carbon price. Increasing the weight of steers at a set turnoff month by feeding CSM was found to be the most cost-effective option, with or without including the offset income. The required ACCU prices for a 2% return on capital were an order of magnitude higher than were indicative carbon prices in 2015 for the three forms of NO3. The likely costs of participating in ERF projects would reduce the return on capital for all mitigation options. © CSIRO 2016.

Bioeconomic modelling of woody regrowth carbon offset options in productive grazing systems

Agricultural land has been identified as a potential source of greenhouse gas emissions offsets through biosequestration in vegetation and soil. In the extensive grazing land of Australia, landholders may participate in the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund and create offsets by reducing woody vegetation clearing and allowing native woody plant regrowth to grow. This study used bioeconomic modelling to evaluate the trade-offs between an existing central Queensland grazing operation, which has been using repeated tree clearing to maintain pasture growth, and an alternative carbon and grazing enterprise in which tree clearing is reduced and the additional carbon sequestered in trees is sold. The results showed that ceasing clearing in favour of producing offsets produces a higher net present value over 20 years than the existing cattle enterprise at carbon prices, which are close to current (2015) market levels (~$13 t–1 CO2-e). However, by modifying key variables, relative profitability did change. Sensitivity analysis evaluated key variables, which determine the relative profitability of carbon and cattle. In order of importance these were: the carbon price, the gross margin of cattle production, the severity of the tree–grass relationship, the area of regrowth retained, the age of regrowth at the start of the project, and to a lesser extent the cost of carbon project administration, compliance and monitoring. Based on the analysis, retaining regrowth to generate carbon income may be worthwhile for cattle producers in Australia, but careful consideration needs to be given to the opportunity cost of reduced cattle income.

Status of kariba weed (Salvinia molesta) infestation, its impacts and control options on Uganda’s water systems

Kariba weed (Salvinia molesta) is an invasive alien waterweed that was first recorded in Uganda in sheltered bays of Lake Kyoga in June 2013. This waterweed has become a common feature on Lake Kyoga and its associated rivers, streams and swamps, and has spread to other lakes notably Kwania and Albert in addition to Lake Kimira in Bugiri district.

Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects

This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making -- Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented -- A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method -- Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options

The meaning of implied volatility in pricing stock options traded in options markets

Ph.D. in the Faculty of Business Administration

The initial phase of sodium sulfite pulping of softwood : A comparison of different pulping options

Single stage and two-stage sodium sulfite cooking were carried out on either spruce, pine or pure pine heartwood chips to investigate the influence of several process parameters on the initial phase of such a cook down to about 60 % pulp yield. The cooking experiments were carried out in the laboratory with either a lab-prepared or a mill-prepared cooking acid and the temperature and time were varied. The influences of dissolved organic and inorganic components in the cooking liquor on the final pulp composition and on the extent of side reactions were investigated. Kinetic equations were developed and the activation energies for delignification and carbohydrate dissolution were calculated using the Arrhenius equation. A better understanding of the delignification mechanisms during bisulfite and acid sulfite cooking was obtained by analyzing the lignin carbohydrate complexes (LCC) present in the pulp when different cooking conditions were used. It was found that using a mill-prepared cooking acid beneficial effect with respect to side reactions, extractives removal and higher stability in pH during the cook were observed compared to a lab-prepared cooking acid. However, no significant difference in degrees of delignification or carbohydrate degradation was seen.  The cellulose yield was not affected in the initial phase of the cook however; temperature had an influence on the rates of both delignification and hemicellulose removal. It was also found that the  corresponding activation energies increased in the order:  xylan, glucomannan, lignin and cellulose. The cooking temperature could thus be used to control the cook to a given carbohydrate composition in the final pulp. Lignin condensation reactions were observed during acid sulfite cooking, especially at higher temperatures. The LCC studies indicated the existence of covalent bonds between lignin and hemicellulose components with respect to xylan and glucomannan. LCC in native wood showed the presence of phenyl glycosides, ϒ-esters and α-ethers; whereas the α-ethers  were affected during sulfite pulping. The existence of covalent bonds between lignin and wood polysaccharides might be the rate-limiting factor in sulfite pulping.

Techno-economic analysis of three HVAC retrofitting options

Accounting for around 40% of the total final energy consumption, the building stock is an important area of focus on the way to reaching the energy goals set for the European Union. The relatively small share of new buildings makes renovation of existing buildings possibly the most feasible way of improving the overall energy performance of the building stock. This of course involves improvements on the climate shell, for example by additional insulation or change of window glazing, but also installation of new heating systems, to increase the energy efficiency and to fit the new heat load after renovation. In the choice of systems for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), it is important to consider their performance for space heating as well as for domestic hot water (DHW), especially for a renovated house where the DHW share of the total heating consumption is larger. The present study treats the retrofitting of a generic single family house, which was defined as a reference building in a European energy renovation project. Three HVAC retrofitting options were compared from a techno-economic point of view: A) Air-to-water heat pump (AWHP) and mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR), B) Exhaust air heat pump (EAHP) with low-temperature ventilation radiators, and C) Gas boiler and ventilation with MVHR. The systems were simulated for houses with two levels of heating demand and four different locations: Stockholm, Gdansk, Stuttgart and London. They were then evaluated by means of life cycle cost (LCC) and primary energy consumption. Dynamic simulations were done in TRNSYS 17. In most cases, system C with gas boiler and MVHR was found to be the cheapest retrofitting option from a life cycle perspective. The advantage over the heat pump systems was particularly clear for a house in Germany, due to the large discrepancy between national prices of natural gas and electricity. In Sweden, where the price difference is much smaller, the heat pump systems had almost as low or even lower life cycle costs than the gas boiler system. Considering the limited availability of natural gas in Sweden, systems A and B would be the better options. From a primary energy point of view system A was the best option throughout, while system B often had the highest primary energy consumption. The limited capacity of the EAHP forced it to use more auxiliary heating than the other systems did, which lowered its COP. The AWHP managed the DHW load better due to a higher capacity, but had a lower COP than the EAHP in space heating mode. Systems A and C were notably favoured by the air heat recovery, which significantly reduced the heating demand. It was also seen that the DHW share of the total heating consumption was, as expected, larger for the house with the lower space heating demand. This confirms the supposition that it is important to include DHW in the study of HVAC systems for retrofitting.

Deniable Authenticated Key Establishment for Internet Protocols

We propose two public-key schemes to achieve “deniable authentication” for the Internet Key Exchange (IKE). Our protocols can be implemented using different concrete mechanisms and we discuss different options; in particular we suggest solutions based on elliptic curve pairings. The protocol designs use the modular construction method of Canetti and Krawczyk which provides the basis for a proof of security. Our schemes can, in some situations, be more efficient than existing IKE protocols as well as having stronger deniability properties.