Essays in Empirical Operations Management: Bayesian Learning of Service Quality and Structural Estimation of Complementary Product Pricing and Inventory Management

This dissertation contributes to the rapidly growing empirical research area in the field of operations management. It contains two essays, tackling two different sets of operations management questions which are motivated by and built on field data sets from two very different industries --- air cargo logistics and retailing.

The first essay, based on the data set obtained from a world leading third-party logistics company, develops a novel and general Bayesian hierarchical learning framework for estimating customers' spillover learning, that is, customers' learning about the quality of a service (or product) from their previous experiences with similar yet not identical services. We then apply our model to the data set to study how customers' experiences from shipping on a particular route affect their future decisions about shipping not only on that route, but also on other routes serviced by the same logistics company. We find that customers indeed borrow experiences from similar but different services to update their quality beliefs that determine future purchase decisions. Also, service quality beliefs have a significant impact on their future purchasing decisions. Moreover, customers are risk averse; they are averse to not only experience variability but also belief uncertainty (i.e., customer's uncertainty about their beliefs). Finally, belief uncertainty affects customers' utilities more compared to experience variability.

The second essay is based on a data set obtained from a large Chinese supermarket chain, which contains sales as well as both wholesale and retail prices of un-packaged perishable vegetables. Recognizing the special characteristics of this particularly product category, we develop a structural estimation model in a discrete-continuous choice model framework. Building on this framework, we then study an optimization model for joint pricing and inventory management strategies of multiple products, which aims at improving the company's profit from direct sales and at the same time reducing food waste and thus improving social welfare.

Collectively, the studies in this dissertation provide useful modeling ideas, decision tools, insights, and guidance for firms to utilize vast sales and operations data to devise more effective business strategies.

University Teaching of entrepreneurship: a practitioner's analysis

This is a practitioner doctorate aimed at both Universities about to introduce Entrepreneurship as a subject and practitioners who may be turning to teaching what they know building on their business experience. In this Portfolio the transition from Entrepreneur to Lecturer in Entrepreneurship is explored and several approaches were used to support the transition. A Professional Development Memoir offers a review of the life of an entrepreneur through the lens of Meaning Making Systems in order to bring clarity to the theories used by the Entrepreneur implicitly in his practice. Reflecting on these theories offers insight as to how the entrepreneur perceived and acted on market opportunities. Imparting some of the knowledge accumulated from practice is one goal in teaching. Economics and pedagogical theories were identified, researched and applied to inform the structure, design and delivery of a module in Entrepreneurship within a post graduate programme that focussed on business practice. Theories of Entrepreneurship grounded in Economics indicate the importance of this business function within the broad Economic System for economic development. The role of theory is to offer students ways of organising how they think about entrepreneurship. Gardner’s Teaching for Understanding framework is used to bring structure to the development of the module. Several leading exemplars on the teaching of Entrepreneurship are attended to offer a context both for the content of the Module and its subsequent implementation within a framework of best practice in the teaching of Entrepreneurship. The practical running of a business by the students as a central element of the Module provided a deep and valuable learning experience allowing them to experience Entrepreneurship in a real way for themselves.

(Table 1) Experimental details and results

Factor-of-safety analyses of submarine slope failure depend critically on the shear strength of the slope material, which is often evaluated with residual strength values and for normally consolidated sediments. Here, we report on direct measurements of both shear strength and cohesion for a quartz-clay mixture over a wide range of overconsolidation ratios (OCRs). For normally consolidated sediment at low stresses, cohesion is the dominant source of shear strength compared to friction. Significant increases in peak shear strength occur for OCR > 4, and the primary source of this strength increase is due to increased cohesion, rather than friction. The proportion of added shear strength due to cohesion depends log-linearly on the OCR. We show that at shallow depths where OCR values can be high, overconsolidated clays can be stronger than pure or nearly pure quartz sediments, which are cohesionless under near-surface conditions. Our data also suggest that areas which have experienced significant unroofing due to previous mass movements are less likely to experience subsequent failure at shallow depths due to increased peak strength, and if failure occurs it is expected to be deeper where the OCR is lower. In seismically active areas, this is one potential explanation for the general observation of lower slope failure recurrence compared to rates expected from triggering due to local earthquakes.

Monitoring of Dynamic Bridge Behaviour Using Digital Image Correlation

Bridges are a critical part of North America’s transportation network that need to be assessed frequently to inform bridge management decision making. Visual inspections are usually implemented for this purpose, during which inspectors must observe and report any excess displacements or vibrations. Unfortunately, these visual inspections are subjective and often highly variable and so a monitoring technology that can provide quantitative measurements to supplement inspections is needed. Digital Image Correlation (DIC) is a novel monitoring technology that uses digital images to measure displacement fields without any contact with the bridge. In this research, DIC and accelerometers were used to investigate the dynamic response of a railway bridge reported to experience large lateral displacements. Displacements were estimated using accelerometer measurements and were compared to DIC measurements. It was shown that accelerometers can provide reasonable estimates of displacement for zero-mean lateral displacements. By comparing measurements in the girder and in the piers, it was shown that for the bridge monitored, the large lateral displacements originated in the steel casting bearings positioned above the piers, and not in the piers themselves. The use of DIC for evaluating the effectiveness of rehabilitation of the LaSalle Causeway lift bridge in Kingston, Ontario was also investigated. Vertical displacements were measured at midspan and at the lifting end of the bridge during a static test and under dynamic live loading. The bridge displacements were well within the operating limits, however a gap at the lifting end of the bridge was identified. Rehabilitation of the bridge was conducted and by comparing measurements before and after rehabilitation, it was shown that the gap was successfully closed. Finally, DIC was used to monitor the midspan vertical and lateral displacements in a monitoring campaign of five steel rail bridges. DIC was also used to evaluate the effectiveness of structural rehabilitation of the lateral bracing of a bridge. Simple finite element models are developed using DIC measurements of displacement. Several lessons learned throughout this monitoring campaign are discussed in the hope of aiding future researchers.

Mitigating Social Risk in the Extractive Sector: Developing Intercultural Competence as a Tool for Negotiating Western-Indigenous Perspectives within the Undergraduate Mining Engineering Curriculum

Drawing upon critical, communications, and educational theories, this thesis develops a novel framing of the problem of social risk in the extractive sector, as it relates to the building of respectful relationships with indigenous peoples. Building upon Bakhtin’s dialogism, the thesis demonstrates the linkage of this aspect of social risk to professional education, and specifically, to the undergraduate mining engineering curriculum, and develops a framework for the development of skills related to intercultural competence in the education of mining engineers. The knowledge of social risk, as well as the level of intercultural competence, of students in the mining engineering program, is investigated through a mixture of surveys and focus groups – as is the impact of specific learning interventions. One aspect of this investigation is whether development of these attributes alters graduates’ conception of their identity as mining engineers, i.e. the range and scope of responsibilities, and understanding of to whom responsibilities are owed, and their role in building trusting relationships with communities. Survey results demonstrate that student openness to the perspectives of other cultures increases with exposure to the second year curriculum. Students became more knowledgeable about social dimensions of responsible mining, but not about cultural dimensions. Analysis of focus group data shows that students are highly motivated to improve community perspectives and acceptance. It is observed that students want to show respect for diverse peoples and communities where they will work, but they are hampered by their inability to appreciate the viewpoints of people who do not share their values. They embrace benefit sharing and environmental protection as norms, but they mistakenly conclude that opposition to mining is rooted in a lack of education rather than in cultural values. Three, sequential, threshold concepts are identified as impeding development of intercultural competence: Awareness and Acknowledgement of Different Forms of Knowledge; Recognition that Value Systems are a Function of Culture; Respect for varied perceptions of Social Wellbeing and Quality of Life. Future curriculum development in the undergraduate mining engineering program, as well as in other educational programs relevant to the extractive sector, can be effectively targeted by focusing on these threshold concepts.

Sleep Quality as a Mediator of the Relationship Between Attachment Anxiety and Health Outcomes During Romantic Conflict

Attachment anxiety, or a fear of abandonment by those close to you, is an important predictor of many individual and interpersonal outcomes. Individuals high in attachment anxiety are more likely to experience physical illness due to disrupted immune functioning and deregulated stress responses. I was interested in examining potential mechanisms accounting for why individuals high in attachment anxiety are more likely to become ill. One variable that has been demonstrated to mediate the relationship between stress and health is sleep quality. As attachment anxiety is characterized by the experience of stress and worry over abandonment by romantic partners, I predicted sleep quality would mediate the relationship between attachment anxiety and health. Further, I predicted attachment anxiety would interact with romantic threat, in that individuals high in attachment anxiety who perceive threat to their relationships would have poor sleep quality (compared with individuals low in attachment anxiety and individuals high in anxiety who do not perceive threat) which would mediate the most unhealthy outcomes. I tested these hypotheses using three online diary studies. In the first two studies, participants completed a seven-night diary describing their sleep quality, health, and interaction with their partner. In Study 3, I surveyed participants once a week for eight weeks to examine longer-term health outcomes. Sleep quality did indeed mediate the relationship between attachment anxiety and various health outcomes over one week (Study 2), and showed a trend towards mediating effects over two months (Study 3). Interestingly, however, attachment anxiety did not interact with perceived romantic threat to predict health in the mediation analyses. Implications for sleep as a mediating variable are discussed, as well as the lack of attachment anxiety by romantic threat interaction.

Organic Surveillance: Security and Myth in the Rural

This project looks at the ways Northeastern Ontario citizens in rural communities regulate their private property through traditional and contemporary surveillance means. Through art and objects, this project allows viewers the opportunity to experience surveillance in rural areas through visual and creative ways that encourage interaction and critique. This project defines organic surveillance by looking at the ways ruralists in Markstay Ontario practice surveillance and deterrence which is influenced by characteristics of land, risks and other determining factors such as psychology, resourcefulness, sustainability, technology and private property. Organic surveillance argues that surveillance and deterrence is prevalent far beyond datamining, GPS tracking and social media. Surveillance and deterrence as methods of survival are found everywhere, even in the farthest, most “wild” and forested areas.

Unrecognized Exodus, Unaccepted Accountability : The Looming Shortage of Principals and Vice Principals in Ontario Public School Boards (Working Paper 24)

To the apparent surprise of policy makers at the provincial and school board levels, Ontario’s public schools are about to experience a massive exodus of principals and vice principals. This report, funded by a grant from the Ontario Principals’ Council, details the scale of the retirement wave currently hitting Ontario’s public school boards. Data collected from 946 practicing school administrators suggest that the retirement rates will be almost 20 per cent higher than provincial estimates. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the pool of qualified candidates for these positions is also shrinking. Already, fewer individuals are applying for each available vacancy. The study examines the major dissatisfiers in the current role of school principal as experienced by incumbents. Interviews were also conducted with 92 individuals identified as exceptional candidates for the principalship who had opted not to follow that career path in order to determine what factors they found most important in their decision making. The report concludes with recommendations for the province, school boards and principals' organizations.

Structural and Functional Lung Impairment in Adult Survivors of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia

RATIONALE: As more preterm infants recover from severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), it is critical to understand the clinical consequences of this condition on the lung health of adult survivors.

OBJECTIVES: To assess structural and functional lung parameters in young adult BPD survivors and preterm and term controls Methods: Young adult survivors of BPD (mean age 24) underwent spirometry, lung volumes, transfer factor, lung clearance index and fractional exhaled nitric oxide measurements together with high-resolution chest tomographic (CT) imaging and cardiopulmonary exercise testing.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: 25 adult BPD survivors, (mean ± SD gestational age 26.8 ± 2.3 weeks; birth weight 866 ± 255 g), 24 adult prematurely born non-BPD controls (gestational age 30.6 ± 1.9 weeks; birth weight 1234 ± 207 g) and 25 adult term birth control subjects (gestational age 38.5 ± 0.9 weeks; and birth weight 3569 ± 2979 g) were studied. BPD subjects were more likely to be wakened by cough (OR 9.7, 95% CI: 1.8 to 52.6), p<0.01), wheeze and breathlessness (OR 12.2, 95%CI: 1.3 to 112), p<0.05) than term controls after adjusting for sex and current smoking. Preterm subjects had greater airways obstruction than term subjects. BPD subjects had significantly lower values for FEV1 and FEF25-75 (% predicted and z scores) than term controls (both p<0.001). Although non-BPD subjects also had lower spirometric values than term controls, none of the differences reached statistical significance. More BPD subjects (25%) had fixed airflow obstruction than non-BPD (12.5%) and term (0%) subjects (p=0.004). Both BPD and non-BPD subjects had significantly greater impairment in gas transfer (KCO % predicted) than term subjects (both p<0.05). Eighteen (37%) preterm participants were classified as small for gestational age (birth weight < 10th percentile for gestational age). These subjects had significantly greater impairment in FEV1 (% predicted and z scores) than those born appropriate for gestational age. BPD survivors had significantly more severe radiographic structural lung impairment than non-BPD subjects. Both preterm groups had impaired exercise capacity compared to term controls. There was a trend for greater limitation and leg discomfort in BPD survivors.

CONCLUSIONS: Adult preterm birth survivors, especially those who developed BPD, continue to experience respiratory symptoms and exhibit clinically important levels of pulmonary impairment.

Creating New Design-Build-Test Experiences as Outputs of Undergraduate Design-Build-Test Projects

This paper describes a methodology of using individual engineering undergraduate student projects as a means of effectively and efficiently developing new Design-Build-Test (DBT) learning experiences and challenges.
A key aspect of the rationale for this approach is that it benefits all parties. The student undertaking the individual project gets an authentic experience of producing a functional artefact, which has been the result of a design process that addresses conception, design, implementation and operation. The supervising faculty member benefits from live prototyping of new curriculum content and resources with a student who is at a similar level of knowledge and experience as the intended end users of the DBT outputs. The multiple students who ultimately undertake the DBT experiences / challenges benefit from the enhanced nature of a learning experience which has been “road tested” and optimised.
To demonstrate the methodology the paper will describe a case study example of an individual project completed in 2015. This resulted in a DBT design challenge with a theme of designing a catapult for throwing table tennis balls, the device being made from components laser cut from medium density fibreboard (MDF). Further three different modes of operation will be described which use the same resource materials but operate over different timescales and with different learning outcomes, from an icebreaker exercise focused on developing team dynamics through to full DBT where students get an opportunity to experience the full impact of their design decisions by competing against other students with a catapult they have designed and built themselves.

Individual differences in speech and language ability profiles in areas of high deprivation

Speech and language ability is not a unitary concept; rather, it is made up of multiple abilities such as grammar, articulation and vocabulary. Young children from socio-economically deprived areas are more likely to experience language difficulties than those living in more affluent areas. However, less is known about individual differences in language difficulties amongst young children from socio-economically deprived backgrounds. The present research examined 172 four-year-old children from socio-economically deprived areas on standardised measures of core language, receptive vocabulary, articulation, information conveyed and grammar. Of the total sample, 26% had difficulty in at least one area of language. While most children with speech and language difficulty had generally low performance in all areas, around one in 10 displayed more uneven language abilities. For example, some children had generally good speech and language ability, but had specific difficulty with grammar. In such cases their difficulty is masked somewhat by good overall performance on language tests but they could still benefit from intervention in a specific area. The analysis also identified a number of typically achieving children who were identified as having borderline speech and language difficulty and should be closely monitored

Choreographies of Irish Modernity

Although movement is often viewed as forming the ‘kinetic basis’ of the modern age, the analysis of movement practices such as dance is often neglected in theories of modernity. Dance theorists such as André Lepecki (2006) and Randy Martin (1998) have argued for an awareness of how the kinaesthetic politics of modernity perform a colonization of space and bodies in their constant drive toward movement and mobility. This chapter examines how an analysis of two dance works by Irish artists, one from the early twentieth century and one from the early twenty-first century, can contribute to these discussions of modernity and dance, and how the works might illuminate connections between dance and politics in Ireland in their alternative approaches to these modernist kinaesthetic politics. Taking a brief, contextualizing look at an early dance play by William Butler Yeats, the chapter then focuses on what echoes, or afterlives, can be found from this early modernist work in a piece by contemporary dance theatre choreographer Fearghus Ó’Conchúir. In both works we see the ability of dance to create an alternative space within the pervading discourses (or movements) of a sociopolitical and cultural landscape that allows the spectator – through a visceral connection with a dancer – to experience a different perspective on the ‘idea of a nation’.

Investigation of the effects of flow conditions at rotor inlet on mixed flow turbine performance for automotive applications

Current trends in the automotive industry have placed increased importance on engine downsizing for passenger vehicles. Engine downsizing often results in reduced power output and turbochargers have been relied upon to restore the power output and maintain drivability. As improved power output is required across a wide range of engine operating conditions, it is necessary for the turbocharger to operate effectively at both design and off-design conditions. One off-design condition of considerable importance for turbocharger turbines is low velocity ratio operation, which refers to the combination of high exhaust gas velocity and low turbine rotational speed. Conventional radial flow turbines are constrained to achieve peak efficiency at the relatively high velocity ratio of 0.7, due the requirement to maintain a zero inlet blade angle for structural reasons. Several methods exist to potentially shift turbine peak efficiency to lower velocity ratios. One method is to utilize a mixed flow turbine as an alternative to a radial flow turbine. In addition to radial and circumferential components, the flow entering a mixed flow turbine also has an axial component. This allows the flow to experience a non-zero inlet blade angle, potentially shifting peak efficiency to a lower velocity ratio when compared to an equivalent radial flow turbine.
This study examined the effects of varying the flow conditions at the inlet to a mixed flow turbine and evaluated the subsequent impact on performance. The primary parameters examined were average inlet flow angle, the spanwise distribution of flow angle across the inlet and inlet flow cone angle. The results have indicated that the inlet flow angle significantly influenced the degree of reaction across the rotor and the turbine efficiency. The rotor studied was a custom in-house design based on a state-of-the-art radial flow turbine design. A numerical approach was used as the basis for this investigation and the numerical model has been validated against experimental data obtained from the cold flow turbine test rig at Queen’s University Belfast. The results of the study have provided a useful insight into how the flow conditions at rotor inlet influence the performance of a mixed flow turbine.

Land, Power and Technology : Essays on Political Economy and Historical Development

Land Ownership and Development: Evidence from Postwar Japan This paper analyzes the effect of land ownership on technology adoption and structural transformation. A large-scale land reform in postwar Japan enforced a large number of tenant farmers who were cultivating land to become owners of this land. I find that the municipalities which had many owner farmers after the land reform tended to experience a quick entry of new agricultural machines which became available after the reform. The adoption of the machines reduced the dependence on family labor, and led to a reallocation of labor from agriculture to industries and service sectors in urban centers when these sectors were growing. I also analyze the aggregate impact of labor reallocation on economic growth by using a simple growth model and micro data. I find that it increased GDP by about 12 percent of the GDP in 1974 during 1955-74. I also find a large and positive effect on agricultural productivity. Loyalty and Treason: Theory and Evidence from Japan's Land Reform A historically large-scale land reform in Japan after World War II enforced by the occupation forces redistributed a large area of farmlands to tenant farmers. The reform demolished hierarchical structures by weakening landlords' power in villages and towns. This paper investigates how the change in the social and economic structure of small communities affects electoral outcomes in the presence of clientelism. I find that there was a considerable decrease in the vote share of conservative parties in highly affected areas after the reform. I find the supporting evidence that the effect was driven by the fact that the tenant farmers who had obtained land exited from the long-term tenancy contract and became independent landowners. The effect was relatively persistent. Finally, I also find the surprising result that there was a decrease, rather than an increase, in turnout in these areas after the reform.  Geography and State Fragmentation We examine how geography affects the location of borders between sovereign states in Europe and surrounding areas from 1500 until today at the grid-cell level. This is motivated by an observation that the richest places in this region also have the highest historical border presence, suggesting a hitherto unexplored link between geography and modern development, working through state fragmentation. The raw correlations show that borders tend to be located on mountains, by rivers, closer to coasts, and in areas suitable for rainfed, but not irrigated, agriculture. Many of these patterns also hold with rigorous spatial controls. For example, cells with more rivers and more rugged terrain than their neighboring cells have higher border densities. However, the fragmenting effects of suitability for rainfed agriculture are reversed with such neighbor controls. Moreover, we find that borders are less likely to survive over time when they separate large states from small, but this size-difference effect is mitigated by, e.g., rugged terrain.

Body Mass Index as a measure of obesity

This Q and A style briefing paper provides an overview of the use of body mass index (BMI) for the measurement of obesity. BMI is a person’s weight in kilograms divided by the square of their height in metres. It is one of the most commonly used ways of estimating whether a person is overweight and hence more likely to experience health problems than someone with a healthy weight. It is used to measure population prevalence of overweight and obesity. It is also a relatively easy, cheap and non-invasive method for establishing weight status. However, BMI is only a proxy for body fatness. Factors such as fitness, ethnic origin and puberty can alter the relation between BMI and body fatness and must be taken into consideration. Other measurements such as waist circumference and skin thickness can be collected to indicate a person’s weight status or body fatness. None of these is as widely used as BMI.