Mapping financial stability

The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of a systemwide, or macroprudential, approach to safeguarding financial stability. An essential part of macroprudential oversight concerns the tasks of early identification and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities that eventually may lead to a systemic financial crisis. Thriving tools are crucial as they allow early policy actions to decrease or prevent further build-up of risks or to otherwise enhance the shock absorption capacity of the financial system. In the literature, three types of systemic risk can be identified: i ) build-up of widespread imbalances, ii ) exogenous aggregate shocks, and iii ) contagion. Accordingly, the systemic risks are matched by three categories of analytical methods for decision support: i ) early-warning, ii ) macro stress-testing, and iii ) contagion models. Stimulated by the prolonged global financial crisis, today's toolbox of analytical methods includes a wide range of innovative solutions to the two tasks of risk identification and risk assessment. Yet, the literature lacks a focus on the task of risk communication. This thesis discusses macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of all three tasks: Within analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment, the focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. The overall task of this thesis is to represent high-dimensional data concerning financial entities on lowdimensional displays. The low-dimensional representations have two subtasks: i ) to function as a display for individual data concerning entities and their time series, and ii ) to use the display as a basis to which additional information can be linked. The final nuance of the task is, however, set by the needs of the domain, data and methods. The following ve questions comprise subsequent steps addressed in the process of this thesis: 1. What are the needs for macroprudential oversight? 2. What form do macroprudential data take? 3. Which data and dimension reduction methods hold most promise for the task? 4. How should the methods be extended and enhanced for the task? 5. How should the methods and their extensions be applied to the task? Based upon the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), this thesis not only creates the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), but also lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. This thesis also introduces three extensions to the standard SOM for enhancing the visualization and extraction of information: i ) fuzzifications, ii ) transition probabilities, and iii ) network analysis. Thus, the SOFSM functions as a display for risk identification, on top of which risk assessments can be illustrated. In addition, this thesis puts forward the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) to provide means for visual dynamic clustering, which in the context of macroprudential oversight concerns the identification of cross-sectional changes in risks and vulnerabilities over time. Rather than automated analysis, the aim of visual means for identifying and assessing risks is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence, as well as external risk communication.

Design and validation of stateful composite RESTful web services

A web service is a software system that provides a machine-processable interface to the other machines over the network using different Internet protocols. They are being increasingly used in the industry in order to automate different tasks and offer services to a wider audience. The REST architectural style aims at producing scalable and extensible web services using technologies that play well with the existing tools and infrastructure of the web. It provides a uniform set of operation that can be used to invoke a CRUD interface (create, retrieve, update and delete) of a web service. The stateless behavior of the service interface requires that every request to a resource is independent of the previous ones facilitating scalability. Automated systems, e.g., hotel reservation systems, provide advanced scenarios for stateful services that require a certain sequence of requests that must be followed in order to fulfill the service goals. Designing and developing such services for advanced scenarios with REST constraints require rigorous approaches that are capable of creating web services that can be trusted for their behavior. Systems that can be trusted for their behavior can be termed as dependable systems. This thesis presents an integrated design, analysis and validation approach that facilitates the service developer to create dependable and stateful REST web services. The main contribution of this thesis is that we provide a novel model-driven methodology to design behavioral REST web service interfaces and their compositions. The behavioral interfaces provide information on what methods can be invoked on a service and the pre- and post-conditions of these methods. The methodology uses Unified Modeling Language (UML), as the modeling language, which has a wide user base and has mature tools that are continuously evolving. We have used UML class diagram and UML state machine diagram with additional design constraints to provide resource and behavioral models, respectively, for designing REST web service interfaces. These service design models serve as a specification document and the information presented in them have manifold applications. The service design models also contain information about the time and domain requirements of the service that can help in requirement traceability which is an important part of our approach. Requirement traceability helps in capturing faults in the design models and other elements of software development environment by tracing back and forth the unfulfilled requirements of the service. The information about service actors is also included in the design models which is required for authenticating the service requests by authorized actors since not all types of users have access to all the resources. In addition, following our design approach, the service developer can ensure that the designed web service interfaces will be REST compliant. The second contribution of this thesis is consistency analysis of the behavioral REST interfaces. To overcome the inconsistency problem and design errors in our service models, we have used semantic technologies. The REST interfaces are represented in web ontology language, OWL2, that can be part of the semantic web. These interfaces are used with OWL 2 reasoners to check unsatisfiable concepts which result in implementations that fail. This work is fully automated thanks to the implemented translation tool and the existing OWL 2 reasoners. The third contribution of this thesis is the verification and validation of REST web services. We have used model checking techniques with UPPAAL model checker for this purpose. The timed automata of UML based service design models are generated with our transformation tool that are verified for their basic characteristics like deadlock freedom, liveness, reachability and safety. The implementation of a web service is tested using a black-box testing approach. Test cases are generated from the UPPAAL timed automata and using the online testing tool, UPPAAL TRON, the service implementation is validated at runtime against its specifications. Requirement traceability is also addressed in our validation approach with which we can see what service goals are met and trace back the unfulfilled service goals to detect the faults in the design models. A final contribution of the thesis is an implementation of behavioral REST interfaces and service monitors from the service design models. The partial code generation tool creates code skeletons of REST web services with method pre and post-conditions. The preconditions of methods constrain the user to invoke the stateful REST service under the right conditions and the post condition constraint the service developer to implement the right functionality. The details of the methods can be manually inserted by the developer as required. We do not target complete automation because we focus only on the interface aspects of the web service. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated with a pedagogical example of a hotel room booking service and a relatively complex worked example of holiday booking service taken from the industrial context. The former example presents a simple explanation of the approach and the later worked example shows how stateful and timed web services offering complex scenarios and involving other web services can be constructed using our approach.

Cost-efficient virtual machine management : provisioning, admission control, and consolidation

One of the main challenges in Software Engineering is to cope with the transition from an industry based on software as a product to software as a service. The field of Software Engineering should provide the necessary methods and tools to develop and deploy new cost-efficient and scalable digital services. In this thesis, we focus on deployment platforms to ensure cost-efficient scalability of multi-tier web applications and on-demand video transcoding service for different types of load conditions. Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) clouds provide Virtual Machines (VMs) under the pay-per-use business model. Dynamically provisioning VMs on demand allows service providers to cope with fluctuations on the number of service users. However, VM provisioning must be done carefully, because over-provisioning results in an increased operational cost, while underprovisioning leads to a subpar service. Therefore, our main focus in this thesis is on cost-efficient VM provisioning for multi-tier web applications and on-demand video transcoding. Moreover, to prevent provisioned VMs from becoming overloaded, we augment VM provisioning with an admission control mechanism. Similarly, to ensure efficient use of provisioned VMs, web applications on the under-utilized VMs are consolidated periodically. Thus, the main problem that we address is cost-efficient VM provisioning augmented with server consolidation and admission control on the provisioned VMs. We seek solutions for two types of applications: multi-tier web applications that follow the request-response paradigm and on-demand video transcoding that is based on video streams with soft realtime constraints. Our first contribution is a cost-efficient VM provisioning approach for multi-tier web applications. The proposed approach comprises two subapproaches: a reactive VM provisioning approach called ARVUE and a hybrid reactive-proactive VM provisioning approach called Cost-efficient Resource Allocation for Multiple web applications with Proactive scaling. Our second contribution is a prediction-based VM provisioning approach for on-demand video transcoding in the cloud. Moreover, to prevent virtualized servers from becoming overloaded, the proposed VM provisioning approaches are augmented with admission control approaches. Therefore, our third contribution is a session-based admission control approach for multi-tier web applications called adaptive Admission Control for Virtualized Application Servers. Similarly, the fourth contribution in this thesis is a stream-based admission control and scheduling approach for on-demand video transcoding called Stream-Based Admission Control and Scheduling. Our fifth contribution is a computation and storage trade-o strategy for cost-efficient video transcoding in cloud computing. Finally, the sixth and the last contribution is a web application consolidation approach, which uses Ant Colony System to minimize the under-utilization of the virtualized application servers.

Visual analytics for behavioral and niche market segmentation

Companies require information in order to gain an improved understanding of their customers. Data concerning customers, their interests and behavior are collected through different loyalty programs. The amount of data stored in company data bases has increased exponentially over the years and become difficult to handle. This research area is the subject of much current interest, not only in academia but also in practice, as is shown by several magazines and blogs that are covering topics on how to get to know your customers, Big Data, information visualization, and data warehousing. In this Ph.D. thesis, the Self-Organizing Map and two extensions of it – the Weighted Self-Organizing Map (WSOM) and the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) – are used as data mining methods for extracting information from large amounts of customer data. The thesis focuses on how data mining methods can be used to model and analyze customer data in order to gain an overview of the customer base, as well as, for analyzing niche-markets. The thesis uses real world customer data to create models for customer profiling. Evaluation of the built models is performed by CRM experts from the retailing industry. The experts considered the information gained with help of the models to be valuable and useful for decision making and for making strategic planning for the future.

Agent-based management systems for many-core platforms : rigorous design and efficient implementation

Due to various advantages such as flexibility, scalability and updatability, software intensive systems are increasingly embedded in everyday life. The constantly growing number of functions executed by these systems requires a high level of performance from the underlying platform. The main approach to incrementing performance has been the increase of operating frequency of a chip. However, this has led to the problem of power dissipation, which has shifted the focus of research to parallel and distributed computing. Parallel many-core platforms can provide the required level of computational power along with low power consumption. On the one hand, this enables parallel execution of highly intensive applications. With their computational power, these platforms are likely to be used in various application domains: from home use electronics (e.g., video processing) to complex critical control systems. On the other hand, the utilization of the resources has to be efficient in terms of performance and power consumption. However, the high level of on-chip integration results in the increase of the probability of various faults and creation of hotspots leading to thermal problems. Additionally, radiation, which is frequent in space but becomes an issue also at the ground level, can cause transient faults. This can eventually induce a faulty execution of applications. Therefore, it is crucial to develop methods that enable efficient as well as resilient execution of applications. The main objective of the thesis is to propose an approach to design agentbased systems for many-core platforms in a rigorous manner. When designing such a system, we explore and integrate various dynamic reconfiguration mechanisms into agents functionality. The use of these mechanisms enhances resilience of the underlying platform whilst maintaining performance at an acceptable level. The design of the system proceeds according to a formal refinement approach which allows us to ensure correct behaviour of the system with respect to postulated properties. To enable analysis of the proposed system in terms of area overhead as well as performance, we explore an approach, where the developed rigorous models are transformed into a high-level implementation language. Specifically, we investigate methods for deriving fault-free implementations from these models into, e.g., a hardware description language, namely VHDL.

Hierarchy and Expansiveness in Two-Dimensional Subshifts of Finite Type

Subshifts are sets of configurations over an infinite grid defined by a set of forbidden patterns. In this thesis, we study two-dimensional subshifts offinite type (2D SFTs), where the underlying grid is Z2 and the set of for-bidden patterns is finite. We are mainly interested in the interplay between the computational power of 2D SFTs and their geometry, examined through the concept of expansive subdynamics. 2D SFTs with expansive directions form an interesting and natural class of subshifts that lie between dimensions 1 and 2. An SFT that has only one non-expansive direction is called extremely expansive. We prove that in many aspects, extremely expansive 2D SFTs display the totality of behaviours of general 2D SFTs. For example, we construct an aperiodic extremely expansive 2D SFT and we prove that the emptiness problem is undecidable even when restricted to the class of extremely expansive 2D SFTs. We also prove that every Medvedev class contains an extremely expansive 2D SFT and we provide a characterization of the sets of directions that can be the set of non-expansive directions of a 2D SFT. Finally, we prove that for every computable sequence of 2D SFTs with an expansive direction, there exists a universal object that simulates all of the elements of the sequence. We use the so called hierarchical, self-simulating or fixed-point method for constructing 2D SFTs which has been previously used by Ga´cs, Durand, Romashchenko and Shen.

Examining human-centered design practice in the mobile apps era

Human-Centered Design (HCD) is a well-recognized approach to the design of interactive computing systems that supports everyday and professional lives of people. To that end, the HCD approach put central emphasis on the explicit understanding of users and context of use by involving users throughout the entire design and development process. With mobile computing, the diversity of users as well as the variety in the spatial, temporal, and social settings of the context of use has notably expanded, which affect the effort of interaction designers to understand users and context of use. The emergence of the mobile apps era in 2008 as a result of structural changes in the mobile industry and the profound enhanced capabilities of mobile devices, further intensify the embeddedness of technology in the daily life of people and the challenges that interaction designers face to cost-efficiently understand users and context of use. Supporting interaction designers in this challenge requires understanding of their existing practice, rationality, and work environment. The main objective of this dissertation is to contribute to interaction design theories by generating understanding on the HCD practice of mobile systems in the mobile apps era, as well as to explain the rationality of interaction designers in attending to users and context of use. To achieve that, a literature study is carried out, followed by a mixed-methods research that combines multiple qualitative interview studies and a quantitative questionnaire study. The dissertation contributes new insights regarding the evolving HCD practice at an important time of transition from stationary computing to mobile computing. Firstly, a gap is identified between interaction design as practiced in research and in the industry regarding the involvement of users in context; whereas the utilization of field evaluations, i.e. in real-life environments, has become more common in academic projects, interaction designers in the industry still rely, by large, on lab evaluations. Secondly, the findings indicate on new aspects that can explain this gap and the rationality of interaction designers in the industry in attending to users and context; essentially, the professional-client relationship was found to inhibit the involvement of users, while the mental distance between practitioners and users as well as the perceived innovativeness of the designed system are suggested in explaining the inclination to study users in situ. Thirdly, the research contributes the first explanatory model on the relation between the organizational context and HCD; essentially, innovation-focused organizational strategies greatly affect the cost-effective usage of data on users and context of use. Last, the findings suggest a change in the nature of HCD in the mobile apps era, at least with universal consumer systems; evidently, the central attention on the explicit understanding of users and context of use shifts from an early requirements phase and continual activities during design and development to follow-up activities. That is, the main effort to understand users is by collecting data on their actual usage of the system, either before or after the system is deployed. The findings inform both researchers and practitioners in interaction design. In particular, the dissertation suggest on action research as a useful approach to support interaction designers and further inform theories on interaction design. With regard to the interaction design practice, the dissertation highlights strategies that encourage a more cost-effective user- and context-informed interaction design process. With the continual embeddedness of computing into people’s life, e.g. with wearable devices and connected car systems, the dissertation provides a timely and valuable view on the evolving humancentered design.

Bio-inspired optimization & sampling technique for side-chain packing in MCCE

The prediction of proteins' conformation helps to understand their exhibited functions, allows for modeling and allows for the possible synthesis of the studied protein. Our research is focused on a sub-problem of protein folding known as side-chain packing. Its computational complexity has been proven to be NP-Hard. The motivation behind our study is to offer the scientific community a means to obtain faster conformation approximations for small to large proteins over currently available methods. As the size of proteins increases, current techniques become unusable due to the exponential nature of the problem. We investigated the capabilities of a hybrid genetic algorithm / simulated annealing technique to predict the low-energy conformational states of various sized proteins and to generate statistical distributions of the studied proteins' molecular ensemble for pKa predictions. Our algorithm produced errors to experimental results within .acceptable margins and offered considerable speed up depending on the protein and on the rotameric states' resolution used.

Extending relAPS to first order logic

RelAPS is an interactive system assisting in proving relation-algebraic theorems. The aim of the system is to provide an environment where a user can perform a relation-algebraic proof similar to doing it using pencil and paper. The previous version of RelAPS accepts only Horn-formulas. To extend the system to first order logic, we have defined and implemented a new language based on theory of allegories as well as a new calculus. The language has two different kinds of terms; object terms and relational terms, where object terms are built from object constant symbols and object variables, and relational terms from typed relational constant symbols, typed relational variables, typed operation symbols and the regular operations available in any allegory. The calculus is a mixture of natural deduction and the sequent calculus. It is formulated in a sequent style but with exactly one formula on the right-hand side. We have shown soundness and completeness of this new logic which verifies that the underlying proof system of RelAPS is working correctly.

Evolution of architectural floor plans

Layout planning is a process of sizing and placing rooms (e.g. in a house) while a t t empt ing to optimize various criteria. Often the r e are conflicting c r i t e r i a such as construction cost, minimizing the distance between r e l a t ed activities, and meeting the area requirements for these activities. The process of layout planning ha s mostly been done by hand, wi th a handful of a t t empt s to automa t e the process. Thi s thesis explores some of these pa s t a t t empt s and describes several new techniques for automa t ing the layout planning process using evolutionary computation. These techniques a r e inspired by the existing methods, while adding some of the i r own innovations. Additional experimenLs are done to t e s t the possibility of allowing polygonal exteriors wi th rectilinear interior walls. Several multi-objective approaches are used to evaluate and compare fitness. The evolutionary r epr e s ent a t ion and requirements specification used provide great flexibility in problem scope and depth and is worthy of considering in future layout and design a t t empt s . The system outlined in thi s thesis is capable of evolving a variety of floor plans conforming to functional and geometric specifications. Many of the resulting plans look reasonable even when compared to a professional floor plan. Additionally polygonal and multi-floor buildings were also generated.

Improving Short DNA Sequence Alignment with Parallel Computing

Variations in different types of genomes have been found to be responsible for a large degree of physical diversity such as appearance and susceptibility to disease. Identification of genomic variations is difficult and can be facilitated through computational analysis of DNA sequences. Newly available technologies are able to sequence billions of DNA base pairs relatively quickly. These sequences can be used to identify variations within their specific genome but must be mapped to a reference sequence first. In order to align these sequences to a reference sequence, we require mapping algorithms that make use of approximate string matching and string indexing methods. To date, few mapping algorithms have been tailored to handle the massive amounts of output generated by newly available sequencing technologies. In otrder to handle this large amount of data, we modified the popular mapping software BWA to run in parallel using OpenMPI. Parallel BWA matches the efficiency of multithreaded BWA functions while providing efficient parallelism for BWA functions that do not currently support multithreading. Parallel BWA shows significant wall time speedup in comparison to multithreaded BWA on high-performance computing clusters, and will thus facilitate the analysis of genome sequencing data.

Genetic Programming for Non-Photorealistic Rendering

This thesis focuses on developing an evolutionary art system using genetic programming. The main goal is to produce new forms of evolutionary art that filter existing images into new non-photorealistic (NPR) styles, by obtaining images that look like traditional media such as watercolor or pencil, as well as brand new effects. The approach permits GP to generate creative forms of NPR results. The GP language is extended with different techniques and methods inspired from NPR research such as colour mixing expressions, image processing filters and painting algorithm. Colour mixing is a major new contribution, as it enables many familiar and innovative NPR effects to arise. Another major innovation is that many GP functions process the canvas (rendered image), while is dynamically changing. Automatic fitness scoring uses aesthetic evaluation models and statistical analysis, and multi-objective fitness evaluation is used. Results showed a variety of NPR effects, as well as new, creative possibilities.

Region Connection Calculus: Composition Tables and Constraint Satisfaction Problems

Qualitative spatial reasoning (QSR) is an important field of AI that deals with qualitative aspects of spatial entities. Regions and their relationships are described in qualitative terms instead of numerical values. This approach models human based reasoning about such entities closer than other approaches. Any relationships between regions that we encounter in our daily life situations are normally formulated in natural language. For example, one can outline one's room plan to an expert by indicating which rooms should be connected to each other. Mereotopology as an area of QSR combines mereology, topology and algebraic methods. As mereotopology plays an important role in region based theories of space, our focus is on one of the most widely referenced formalisms for QSR, the region connection calculus (RCC). RCC is a first order theory based on a primitive connectedness relation, which is a binary symmetric relation satisfying some additional properties. By using this relation we can define a set of basic binary relations which have the property of being jointly exhaustive and pairwise disjoint (JEPD), which means that between any two spatial entities exactly one of the basic relations hold. Basic reasoning can now be done by using the composition operation on relations whose results are stored in a composition table. Relation algebras (RAs) have become a main entity for spatial reasoning in the area of QSR. These algebras are based on equational reasoning which can be used to derive further relations between regions in a certain situation. Any of those algebras describe the relation between regions up to a certain degree of detail. In this thesis we will use the method of splitting atoms in a RA in order to reproduce known algebras such as RCC15 and RCC25 systematically and to generate new algebras, and hence a more detailed description of regions, beyond RCC25.

L-Fuzzy Relations in Coq

Heyting categories, a variant of Dedekind categories, and Arrow categories provide a convenient framework for expressing and reasoning about fuzzy relations and programs based on those methods. In this thesis we present an implementation of Heyting and arrow categories suitable for reasoning and program execution using Coq, an interactive theorem prover based on Higher-Order Logic (HOL) with dependent types. This implementation can be used to specify and develop correct software based on L-fuzzy relations such as fuzzy controllers. We give an overview of lattices, L-fuzzy relations, category theory and dependent type theory before describing our implementation. In addition, we provide examples of program executions based on our framework.

Network Similarity Measures and Automatic Construction of Graph Models using Genetic Programming

A complex network is an abstract representation of an intricate system of interrelated elements where the patterns of connection hold significant meaning. One particular complex network is a social network whereby the vertices represent people and edges denote their daily interactions. Understanding social network dynamics can be vital to the mitigation of disease spread as these networks model the interactions, and thus avenues of spread, between individuals. To better understand complex networks, algorithms which generate graphs exhibiting observed properties of real-world networks, known as graph models, are often constructed. While various efforts to aid with the construction of graph models have been proposed using statistical and probabilistic methods, genetic programming (GP) has only recently been considered. However, determining that a graph model of a complex network accurately describes the target network(s) is not a trivial task as the graph models are often stochastic in nature and the notion of similarity is dependent upon the expected behavior of the network. This thesis examines a number of well-known network properties to determine which measures best allowed networks generated by different graph models, and thus the models themselves, to be distinguished. A proposed meta-analysis procedure was used to demonstrate how these network measures interact when used together as classifiers to determine network, and thus model, (dis)similarity. The analytical results form the basis of the fitness evaluation for a GP system used to automatically construct graph models for complex networks. The GP-based automatic inference system was used to reproduce existing, well-known graph models as well as a real-world network. Results indicated that the automatically inferred models exemplified functional similarity when compared to their respective target networks. This approach also showed promise when used to infer a model for a mammalian brain network.