Examining underlying determinants of fertility rates in Zambia: Evidence from the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey

Limited data exits on factors influencing fertility in Zambia. This study examined underlying determinants of fertility patterns and levels in Zambia. Data extracted from the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey was analysed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. Of 7146 women aged 15-49 years, age group 25-29 years experienced the highest prevalence of births (28.5%). Married women accounted for 27% of all births. Women with low education recorded more births (27%) than those with higher education (9.5%) (P<0.001). Fertility was higher among the poorest (28%) compared to the richest (12%) (P<0.001). Though not statistically significant, urban areas recorded more births (25%) than rural areas (15%). Education and wealth significantly influence fertility Zambia. Fertility management strategies should consider these factors and their fertility reducing effects. Improving education and wealth status of women can contribute to fertility reduction, particularly rural women. Lower fertility, with reduced mortality and migration, would provide less pressure on distribution of the limited economic resources of the country.

Studying the Causes and Consequences of Internal Labor Migration Using Survey and Administrative Data Sources

This dissertation comprises three chapters. The first chapter motivates the use of a novel data set combining survey and administrative sources for the study of internal labor migration. By following a sample of individuals from the American Community Survey (ACS) across their employment outcomes over time according to the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) database, I construct a measure of geographic labor mobility that allows me to exploit information about individuals prior to their move. This enables me to explore aspects of the migration decision, such as homeownership and employment status, in ways that have not previously been possible. In the second chapter, I use this data set to test the theory that falling home prices affect a worker’s propensity to take a job in a different metropolitan area from where he is currently located. Employing a within-CBSA and time estimation that compares homeowners to renters in their propensities to relocate for jobs, I find that homeowners who have experienced declines in the nominal value of their homes are approximately 12% less likely than average to take a new job in a location outside of the metropolitan area where they currently reside. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that housing lock-in has contributed to the decline in labor mobility of homeowners during the recent housing bust. The third chapter focuses on a sample of unemployed workers in the same data set, in order to compare the unemployment durations of those who find subsequent employment by relocating to a new metropolitan area, versus those who find employment in their original location. Using an instrumental variables strategy to address the endogeneity of the migration decision, I find that out-migrating for a new job significantly reduces the time to re-employment. These results stand in contrast to OLS estimates, which suggest that those who move have longer unemployment durations. This implies that those who migrate for jobs in the data may be particularly disadvantaged in their ability to find employment, and thus have strong short-term incentives to relocate.

Evidence that risk adjustment is unnecessary in estimates of the User cost of money

Investors value the special attributes of monetary assets (e.g., exchangeability, liquidity, and safety) and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate -- The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the returns on illiquid risky assets and those of safer liquid assets -- A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the differential risk of the assets in question -- We investigate the impact that time non-separable preferences has on the estimation of the risk-adjusted user cost of money -- Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model with money in the utility function and find that the risk adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible -- Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the user cost of money in constructing monetary aggregate indexes

Don’t expect me to vote for you just because I like you, even if you do make me feel warm inside: a comparison of the validity of non-ipsative measures of party support

The inclusion of non-ipsative measures of party preference (in essence ratings for each of the parties of a political system) has become established practice in mass surveys conducted for election studies. They exist in different forms, known as thermometer ratings or feeling scores, likes and dislikes scores, or support propensities. Usually only one of these is included in a single survey, which makes it difficult to assess the relative merits of each. The questionnaire of the Irish National Election Study 2002 (INES2002) contained three different batteries of non-ipsative party preferences. This paper investigates some of the properties of these different indicators. We focus in particular on two phenomena. First, the relationship between non-ipsative preferences and the choices actually made on the ballot. In Ireland this relationship is more revealing than in most other countries owing to the electoral system (STV) which allows voters to cast multiple ordered votes for candidates from different parties. Second, we investigate the latent structure of each of the batteries of party preferences and the relationships between them. We conclude that the three instruments are not interchangeable, that they measure different orientations, and that one –the propensity to vote for a party– is by far preferable if the purpose of the study is the explanation of voters’ actual choice behaviour. This finding has important ramifications for the design of election study questionnaires.

Early consumption of liquids different to breast milk in Mexican infants under 1 year: results of the probabilistic National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012

Introduction: Studies on infant dietary intake do not generally focus on the types of liquids consumed. Objective: To document by age and breastfeeding status, the types of liquids present in the diet of Mexican children under 1 year of age (< 1 y) who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012 (ENSANUT-2012). Methods: Analysis of the infant < 1 y feeding practices from the ENSANUT-2012 survey in non-breastfed (non-BF) and breastfed (BF) infants by status quo for the consumption of liquids grouped in: water, formula, fortified LICONSA milk, nutritive liquids (NL; thin cereal-based gruel with water or milk and coffee with milk) and non-nutritive liquids (non-NL) as sugared water, water-based drinks, tea, beans or chicken broth, aguamiel and coffee. In this infants < 1 y we analyzed the not grouped consumption of liquids in the first three days of life (newborns) from the mother's recall. Percentage and confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated adjusting for survey design. Statistical differences were analyzed by Z test. Results: We observed a high consumption of human milk followed by formula (56.7%) and water (51.1%) in infants under 6 months of age (< 6 mo). The proportion of non-BF infants consuming non-NL was higher than for BF infants (p < 0.05). More than 60% of older infants (6 mo and < 1 y) consumed formula and were non-BF. In newborns formula consumption was predominant, followed by tea or infusion and water. Conclusions: Non-breast milk liquids are present undesirably in Mexican infants' diet and non-NL are consumed earlier than NL, revealing inadequate early dietary practices.

Recherche et analyse d'étoiles naines blanches chimiquement stratiées dans le Sloan Digital Sky Survey

Ce mémoire présente une recherche détaillée et une analyse des étoiles naines blanches hybrides chimiquement stratifiées dans le Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Une seule étoile stratifiée, PG 1305-017, était connue avant notre recherche. L'objectif principal est de confirmer l'existence de plusieurs nouvelles étoiles stratifiées. Pour ce faire, il a fallu dans un premier temps développer une nouvelle génération de modèles d'atmosphère à partir de ceux de Bergeron et al. (1991) et Tremblay & Bergeron (2009). Nous y avons ajouté l'opacité de toutes les raies d'hélium et les calculs nécessaires pour tenir compte de la stratification chimique de l'atmosphère, où une mince quantité d’hydrogène flotte en équilibre diffusif au-dessus d’une enveloppe massive d’hélium. En parallèle, nous avons aussi calculé des modèles standards, chimiquement homogènes. Ensuite, nous avons sélectionné des naines blanches chaudes (Teff > 30,000 K) de type spectral hybride (traces d'hélium et d'hydrogène) parmi les ~38,000 naines blanches répertoriées dans le SDSS. Un total de 52 spectres d'étoile a été retenu dans notre échantillon final. La technique spectroscopique, c'est-à-dire l'ajustement des raies spectrales des modèles sur un spectre observé, a été appliquée à toutes les étoiles de notre échantillon. Nous avons ainsi mesuré la température effective, la gravité de surface et la composition chimique de l'atmosphère de ces étoiles. Par l'ajustement simultané de modèles stratifiés et homogènes, nous avons aussi pu déterminer si les étoiles étaient stratifiées ou non. Nous identifions ainsi 14 naines blanches stratifiées. Nous tirons de ces résultats plusieurs conclusions sur les processus physiques expliquant la présence d'hélium dans l'atmosphère.

Recherche et analyse d'étoiles naines blanches chimiquement stratiées dans le Sloan Digital Sky Survey

Ce mémoire présente une recherche détaillée et une analyse des étoiles naines blanches hybrides chimiquement stratifiées dans le Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Une seule étoile stratifiée, PG 1305-017, était connue avant notre recherche. L'objectif principal est de confirmer l'existence de plusieurs nouvelles étoiles stratifiées. Pour ce faire, il a fallu dans un premier temps développer une nouvelle génération de modèles d'atmosphère à partir de ceux de Bergeron et al. (1991) et Tremblay & Bergeron (2009). Nous y avons ajouté l'opacité de toutes les raies d'hélium et les calculs nécessaires pour tenir compte de la stratification chimique de l'atmosphère, où une mince quantité d’hydrogène flotte en équilibre diffusif au-dessus d’une enveloppe massive d’hélium. En parallèle, nous avons aussi calculé des modèles standards, chimiquement homogènes. Ensuite, nous avons sélectionné des naines blanches chaudes (Teff > 30,000 K) de type spectral hybride (traces d'hélium et d'hydrogène) parmi les ~38,000 naines blanches répertoriées dans le SDSS. Un total de 52 spectres d'étoile a été retenu dans notre échantillon final. La technique spectroscopique, c'est-à-dire l'ajustement des raies spectrales des modèles sur un spectre observé, a été appliquée à toutes les étoiles de notre échantillon. Nous avons ainsi mesuré la température effective, la gravité de surface et la composition chimique de l'atmosphère de ces étoiles. Par l'ajustement simultané de modèles stratifiés et homogènes, nous avons aussi pu déterminer si les étoiles étaient stratifiées ou non. Nous identifions ainsi 14 naines blanches stratifiées. Nous tirons de ces résultats plusieurs conclusions sur les processus physiques expliquant la présence d'hélium dans l'atmosphère.

Sources of Information about Dietary Fibre: A Cross-Country Survey

Dietary fibre (DF) has been recognized as a major determinant for improvement of health. Hence the means of information through which people become aware of its benefits are crucial. This work aimed at studying the sources of information about DF, as a means to educate people about aspects related to healthy eating. Factors such as gender, level of education, living environment or country were evaluated as to their effect on the selection of sources and preferences. For this, a descriptive cross-sectional study by means of a questionnaire, applied to a non-probabilistic sample of 6010 participants from 10 countries in different continents (Europe, Africa and America), answered after informed consent by all participants. For the analysis were used several descriptive statistics tools, crosstabs and chi square test to assess the relations between some of the variables under study. The results showed that mostly the information about DF comes from the internet, but the participants recognize that television might be a most suitable way to disseminate information about DF. The results also indicated differences between genders, levels of education, living environments and countries. The internet, the preferred source of information, got highest scores for Hungary, for urban areas, for university level of education and for female gender. The radio, the least scored source of information, was preferred in Egypt, for men and with lower education (primary school). As a conclusion, people get information through the internet due to easy access. However, it is to some extent a risk given the impossibility to control de information made public on the internet. The role of health centers and hospitals as well as schools should definitely be increased, as a responsible way to ensure correct information.

Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964), and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

Asociación de las violencias física, sexual y comunitaria con el embarazo en adolescentes: análisis multinivel

Objetivos Determinar si existe asociación entre la exposición a violencia, experimentada a nivel individual o municipal, y el embarazo adolescente en mujeres Colombianas entre 13 y 19 años de edad que contestaron la Encuesta de Demografía y Salud en el año 2010. Métodos Estudio de corte transversal, nacional y multinivel. Se tomaron datos de dos niveles jerárquicos: Nivel- 1: Datos individuales de una muestra representativa de 13.313 mujeres entre 13 y 19 años de edad provenientes de La Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud del año 2010 y Nivel- 2: Datos municipales de 258 municipios provenientes de las estadísticas vitales del DANE. Resultados La prevalencia del embarazo adolescente fue del 16.8% IC 95% [16.2-17.4]. El análisis mostró que la asociación entre embarazo adolescente y violencia tanto individual, representada como violencia sexual [OR= 6.99 IC99% 4.80-10.10] y violencia física [OR= 1.74 IC99% 1.47-2.05] así como la violencia municipal medida con tasas de homicidios altas [OR= 1.99 IC99% 1.29-3.07] y muy altas [OR= 2.10 IC99% 1.21-3.61] se mantuvo estadísticamente significativa después de ajustar por las variables: Edad [OR= 1.81 IC99% 1.71-1.91], ocupación [OR= 1.62 IC99% 1.37-1.93], educación primaria o sin educación [OR= 2.20 IC99% 1.47-3.30], educación secundaria [OR= 1.70 IC99% 1.24-2.32], asistir al colegio [OR= 0.18 IC99% 0.15-0.21], conocimiento en la fisiología reproductiva [OR= 1.28 IC99% 1.06-1.54], el índice de riqueza Q1, Q2, Q3 [OR= 2.18 IC99% 1.42-3.34], [OR= 2.00 IC99% 1.39-2.28], [OR= 1.82 IC99% 1.92-2.25] y alto porcentaje de Necesidades básicas insatisfechas a nivel municipal [OR= 2.34 IC99% 1.55-3.52]. Conclusiones Este estudio mostró una relación significativamente estadística entre la violencia sexual y física con el inicio de relaciones sexuales y embarazo adolescente después de controlar por factores sociodemográficos y conocimientos en reproducción sexual en mujeres colombianas de 13 a 19 años en el año 2010. Esta asociación debe continuar siendo estudiada para lograr optimizar las estrategias de prevención y disminuir la tasa actual de embarazos adolescentes en el país y sus consecuencias.

Convergence time to equilibrium distributions of autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs

We present some estimates of the time of convergence to the equilibrium distribution in autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs, with ergodic stochastic adjacency matrices, using the eigenvalues of these matrices. On this way we generalize previous results from several authors, that only considered reversible matrices.

Effect of inclusion or non-inclusion of short lactations and cow and/or dam genetic group on genetic evaluation of Girolando dairy cattle.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of inclusion or non-inclusion of short lactations and cow (CGG) and/or dam (DGG) genetic group on the genetic evaluation of 305-day milk yield (MY305), age at first calving (AFC), and first calving interval (FCI) of Girolando cows. Covariance components were estimated by the restricted maximum likelihood method in an animal model of single trait analyses. The heritability estimates for MY305, AFC, and FCI ranged from 0.23 to 0.29, 0.40 to 0.44, and 0.13 to 0.14, respectively, when short lactations were not included, and from 0.23 to 0.28, 0.39 to 0.43, and 0.13 to 0.14, respectively, when short lactations were included. The inclusion of short lactations caused little variation in the variance components and heritability estimates of traits, but their non-inclusion resulted in the re-ranking of animals. Models with CGG or DGG fixed effects had higher heritability estimates for all traits compared with models that consider these two effects simultaneously. We recommend using the model with fixed effects of CGG and inclusion of short lactations for the genetic evaluation of Girolando cattle.

Factor Endowment of Dairy and Non-Dairy Farmers in Banyumas Region

Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui kondisi factor pendukung usaha oleh peternak sapi perah pada tiga tipe rumah tangga petani-peternak, yakni petani-peternak yang memiliki skala usaha sapi perah yang kecil, yang lebih besar, dan yang tidak memiliki sapi perah. Pengumpulan data menggunakan metode survey pada delapan desa terpilih, kemudian 80 responden dipilih secara acak sebagai sample yang berasal dari kedelapan desa tersebut. Data yang terkumpul dianalisis menggunakan analitis deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai paddy-land ratio lebih tinggi pada petani-peternak sapi perah. Meskipun jumlah pemilikan lahan sama, namun petani yang tidak memiliki sapi perah memiliki lahan padi yang lebih luas. Peternak yang memiliki sapi perah lebih banyak, menggunakan tenaga kerja keluarga yang lebih banyak pula. (Animal Production 5(2): 57-62 (2003) Kata Kunci : Sapi Perah, Faktor Pendukung, Peternakan Rakyat, Banyumas