Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tumour necrosis factor alpha induces rapid reduction in AMPA receptor-mediated calcium entry in motor neurones by increasing cell surface expression of the GluR2 subunit: relevance to neurodegeneration

The AMPA receptor (AMPAR) subunit GluR2, which regulates excitotoxicity and the inflammatory cytokine tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha) have both been implicated in motor neurone vulnerability in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis/Motor Neurone Disease. TNF alpha has been reported to increase cell surface expression of AMPAR subunits to increase synaptic strength and enhance excitotoxicity, but whether this mechanism occurs in motor neurones is unknown. We used primary cultures of mouse motor neurones and cortical neurones to examine the interaction between TNF alpha receptor activation, GluR2 availability, AMPAR-mediated calcium entry and susceptibility to excitotoxicity. Short exposure to a physiologically relevant concentration of TNFalpha (10 ng/ml, 15 min) caused a marked redistribution of both GluR1 and GluR2 to the cell surface as determined by cell surface biotinylation and immunofluorescence. Using Fura-2 AM microfluorimetry we showed that exposure to TNFalpha caused a rapid reduction in the peak amplitude of AMPA-mediated calcium entry in a PI3-kinase and p38 kinase-dependent manner, consistent with increased insertion of GluR2-containing AMPAR into the plasma membrane. This resulted in a protection of motor neurones against kainate-induced cell death. Our data therefore, suggests that TNF alpha acts primarily as a physiological regulator of synaptic activity in motor neurones rather than a pathological drive in ALS

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduction of arsenic uptake by lettuce with ferrous sulfate applied to contaminated soil

Soil contamination by arsenic (As) presents a hazard in many countries and there is a need for techniques to minimize As uptake by plants. A proposed in situ remediation method was tested by growing lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. cv. Kermit) in a greenhouse pot experiment on soil that contained 577 mg As kg(-1), taken from a former As smelter site. All combinations of iron (Fe) oxides, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.22, 0.54, and 1.09% (w/w), and lime, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.27, 0.68, and 1.36% (w/w), were tested in a factorial design. To create the treatments, field-moist soil, commercial-grade FeSO4, and ground agricultural lime were mixed and stored for one week, allowing Fe oxides to precipitate. Iron oxides gave highly significant (P < 0.001) reductions in lettuce As concentrations, down to 11% of the lettuce As concentration for untreated soil. For the Fe oxides and lime treatment combinations where soil pH was maintained nearly constant, the lettuce As concentration declined in an exponential relationship with increasing FeSO4 application rate and lettuce yield was almost unchanged. Iron oxides applied at a concentration of 1.09% did not give significantly lower lettuce As concentrations than the 0.54% treatment. Simultaneous addition of lime with FeSO4 was essential. Ferrous sulfate with insufficient lime lowered soil pH and caused mobilization of Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn. At the highest Fe oxide to lime ratios, Mn toxicity caused severe yield loss.

Microbial perchlorate reduction: A precise laboratory determination of the chlorine isotope fractionation and its possible biochemical basis

Perchlorate-reducing bacteria fractionate chlorine stable isotopes giving a powerful approach to monitor the extent of microbial consumption of perchlorate in contaminated sites undergoing remediation or natural perchlorate containing sites. This study reports the full experimental data and methodology used to re-evaluate the chlorine isotope fractionation of perchlorate reduction in duplicate culture experiments of Azospira suillum strain PS at 37 degrees C (Delta Cl-37(Cr)--ClO4-) previously reported, without a supporting data set by Coleman et al. [Coleman, M.L., Ader, M., Chaudhuri, S., Coates,J.D., 2003. Microbial Isotopic Fractionation of Perchlorate Chlorine. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 69, 4997-5000] in a reconnaissance study, with the goal of increasing the accuracy and precision of the isotopic fractionation determination. The method fully described here for the first time, allows the determination of a higher precision Delta Cl-37(Cl)--ClO4- value, either from accumulated chloride content and isotopic composition or from the residual perchlorate content and isotopic composition. The result sets agree perfectly, within error, giving average Delta Cl-37(Cl)--ClO4- = -14.94 +/- 0.15%omicron. Complementary use of chloride and perchlorate data allowed the identification and rejection of poor quality data by applying mass and isotopic balance checks. This precise Delta Cl-37(Cl)--ClO4-, value can serve as a reference point for comparison with future in situ or microcosm studies but we also note its similarity to the theoretical equilibrium isotopic fractionation between a hypothetical chlorine species of redox state +6 and perchlorate at 37 degrees C and suggest that the first electron transfer during perchlorate reduction may occur at isotopic equilibrium between art enzyme-bound chlorine and perchlorate. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Single versus multiple occupancy - Effects on toxicity parameters measured on Eisenia fetida in lead nitrate-treated soil

The mortality (7 and 14 d), weight change (7 and 14 d), and metal uptake of Eisenia fetida (Savigny, 1826) kept in Pb(NO3)(2)-treated Kettering loam soil in single- and multiple-occupancy (10 earthworms) test containers were determined. The number of earthworms to dry mass (g) ratio of soil was 1:50 in both sets of test containers. Lead concentrations were in the nominal range of 0 to 10,000 mg Pb/kg soil (mg/kg hereafter). Levels of mortality at a given concentration were statistically identical between the single- and multiple-occupancy tests, except at 1,800 mg/kg, at which significantly (p less than or equal to 0.05) more mortality occurred in the multiple-occupancy tests. Death of individual earthworms in the multiple-occupancy tests did not trigger death of the other earthworms in that soil. The LC50 values (concentration statistically likely to kill 50% of the population) were identical between the multiple- and single-occupancy soils: 2,662 mg/kg (2,598-2,984, 7 d) and 2,589 mg/kg (2,251-3,013, 14 d) for the multiple-occupancy soils and 2,827 mg/kg (2,443-3,168, both 7 and 14 d) for the single-occupancy soils (values in brackets represent the 95% confidence intervals). Data were insufficient to calculate the concentration statistically likely to reduce individual earthworm mass by 50% (EC50), but after 14 d, the decrease in earthworm weight in the 1,800 and 3,000 mg/kg tests was significantly greater in the multiple- than in the single-occupancy soils. At 1,000, 1,800, and 3,000 mg/kg tests, earthworm Pb tissue concentration was significantly (p less than or equal to 0.05) greater in earthworms from the multiple-occupancy soils. The presence of earthworms increased the NH3 content of the soil; earthworm mortality increased NH3 concentrations further but not to toxic levels.

Is the OECD acute worm toxicity test environmentally relevant? The effect of mineral form on calculated lead toxicity

In a series of experiments the toxicity of lead to worms in soil was determined following the draft OECD earthworm reproduction toxicity protocol except that lead was added as solid lead nitrate, carbonate and sulphide rather than as lead nitrate solution as would normally be the case. The compounds were added to the test soil to give lead concentrations of 625-12500 pg Pb g-1 of soil. Calculated toxicities of the lead decreased in the order nitrate > carbonate > sulphide, the same order as the decrease in the solubility of the metal compounds used. The 7-day LC50 (lethal concentration when 50% of the population is killed) for the nitrate was 5321 +/- 275 mug Pb g(-1) of soil and this did not change with time. The LC50 values for carbonate and sulphide could not be determined at the concentration ranges used. The only parameter sensitive enough to distinguish the toxicities of the three compounds was cocoon (egg) production. The EC50S for cocoon production (the concentration to produce a 50% reduction in cocoon production) were 993, 8604 and 10 246 mug Pb g(-1) of soil for lead nitrate, carbonate and sulphide, respectively. Standard toxicity tests need to take into account the form in which the contaminant is present in the soil to be of environmental relevance. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling stream and soil water nitrate dynamics during experimentally increased nitrogen deposition in a coniferous forest catchment at Gardsjon, Sweden

Increased atmospheric deposition of inorganic nitrogen (N) may lead to increased leaching of nitrate (NO3-) to surface waters. The mechanisms responsible for, and controls on, this leaching are matters of debate. An experimental N addition has been conducted at Gardsjon, Sweden to determine the magnitude and identify the mechanisms of N leaching from forested catchments within the EU funded project NITREX. The ability of INCA-N, a simple process-based model of catchment N dynamics, to simulate catchment-scale inorganic N dynamics in soil and stream water during the course of the experimental addition is evaluated. Simulations were performed for 1990-2002. Experimental N addition began in 1991. INCA-N was able to successfully reproduce stream and soil water dynamics before and during the experiment. While INCA-N did not correctly simulate the lag between the start of N addition and NO 2 3 breakthrough, the model was able to simulate the state change resulting from increased N deposition. Sensitivity analysis showed that model behaviour was controlled primarily by parameters related to hydrology and vegetation dynamics and secondarily by in-soil processes.

Nitrate transport in Chalk catchments: monitoring, modelling and policy implications

Rising nitrate levels have been observed in UK Chalk catchments in recent decades, with concentrations now approaching or exceeding legislated maximum values in many areas. In response, strategies seeking to contain concentrations through appropriate land management are now in place. However, there is an increasing consensus that Chalk systems, a predominant landscape type over England and indeed northwest Europe, can retard decades of prior nitrate loading within their deep unsaturated zones. Current levels may not fully reflect the long-term impact of present-day practices, and stringent land management controls may not be enough to avert further medium-term rises. This paper discusses these issues in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive, drawing on data from recent experimental work and a new model (INCA-Chalk) that allows the impacts of different land use management practices to be explored. Results strongly imply that timelines for water quality improvement demanded by the Water Framework directive are not realistic for the Chalk, and give an indication of time-scales over which improvements might be achieved. However, important unresolved scientific issues remain, and further monitoring and targeted data collection is recommended to reduce prediction uncertainties and allow cost effective strategies for mitigation to be designed and implemented. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.