The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies (Working Paper 30)

One can view the period since 1970 as one in which the authorities struggled to establish appropriate medium-term anchors for both monetary and fiscal policies. During this time, they learned about the appropriate interaction between those two policies in the context of economic stabilization and growth under a flexible exchange rate regime. This lecture deals with four interrelated topics: the appropriate goals for fiscal and monetary policy, building policy credibility, the appropriate stabilization role for the two policies, and policy cooperation. The transparent medium term frameworks that have been established by the authorities will be extremely helpful in meeting the challenges that the future is sure to bring. These frameworks mean that the required adjustments in the economy will take place against a relatively stable background. Thank you for the invitation to give the Gow Lecture for 2002. Donald Gow had a great interest in public administration and in budgetary reform in the federal government (Gow 1973). He was one in a long line of

Keynes’s "Treatise on Money" and the role of the State

Este artículo hace una reconstrucción crítica de la visión de Keynes sobre la relación entre gasto público, tipo de interés, salarios y desempleo, tal y como se formula en su Tratado sobre el Dinero. El trabajo defiende que el enfoque de Keynes lleva a propuestas de política económica que enfatizan la necesidad de intervención estatal directa en la provisión de bienes y servicios. Esta conclusión se deriva de una interpretación circuitista de su obra.

Pass-through of International food prices to domestic ination during and after the great recession: evidence from a set of Latin American economies

We examined how international food price shocks have impacted local ination processes in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru in the past decade -- Using impulse-response analysis coming from cointegrated VARs, we wind that international food ination shocks take from one to six quarters to pass through to domestic head-line ination, depending on the country -- In addition, by calculating the elasticity of local prices to an international food price shock, we found that this pass-through is not complete -- We also take a closer look at how this type of shock affects local food and core prices separately, and asses the possibility second round effects over core ination stemming from the shock -- We wind that a transmission to headline prices does occur, and that part of the transmission is associated with rising core prices both directly and through possible second round effects, which implies a role for monetary policy when such a shock takes place -- This is especially relevant given that international food prices have recently been on an upward trend after falling considerably during the Great Recession

Some features of the law and order model in Spain

This research is based on the hypothesis that law and order model is displacing the procedura justice system in Spain. After a thorough review of the international literature, one can observe that the traditional structure of the penal system does not seem to be capable of containing the new forms of crime. The new penal model assumes that public opinion is alarmed and unwilling to understand rational approaches to crime, so it will be likely to accept measures aimed at calming the fear of crime, through extensive control policies and penal tools to manage uncivil behavior. Objectives and methodology A measuring instrument has been developed to confirm this hypothesis, consisting of ten features that characterize the law and order model. This instrument has been used to identify examples of its ten features in the rules and practices developed at each phase of the Spanish criminal justice system. The analysis has focused specifically on public discourse about delinquency, criminal policy decisions, legislative processes, police routines, judicial dynamics, and prison system practices. Main results The investigation has shown that there are many processes and practices indicating that the law and order model is consolidating itself in the Spanish penal system. Nevertheless this process has a different intensity at each phase, being stronger at the legislative stage and softer in the penitentiary enforcement phase. One of the main conclusions is, therefore, that the designed instrument is ideal for measuring the degree of penetration of the model throughout the system. Some of the most striking results of the reasearch will be presented at the conference. Finally, proposals arise that could prevent the new model is fully seated in our criminal justice system, finding that the trend toward more severe penalties shown already unsustainable.

INFLACIÓN E INCERTIDUMBRE INFLACIONARIA: EVIDENCIA PARA COSTA RICA

En este documento se estima una medida de la incertidumbre inflacionaria. Un modelo de inflación señala incertidumbre cuando los errores de pronóstico son heteroscedásticos. Por medio de la especificación de una ecuación GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity), para la varianza del término de error de un modelo de inflación, es posible estimar una proxy de incertidumbre inflacionaria. La estimación simultánea del modelo de inflación y de la ecuación GARCH, produce un nuevo modelo de inflación en el cual los errores de pronóstico son homocedásticos. Existe consenso en la literatura económica en que hay una correlación positiva entre incertidumbre inflacionaria y la magnitud de la tasa de inflación, lo cual, como lo señaló Friedman (1977), representa uno de los costos asociados con la persistencia inflacionaria. Esto es porque tal incertidumbre dificulta la toma de decisiones óptimas por parte de los agentes económicos.La evidencia empírica, para el periodo 1954:01-2002:08, apoya la hipótesis de que para el caso de Costa Rica mientras mayor es la inflación mayor es la incertidumbre respecto a esta variable. En los últimos siete años (1997-2002) la incertidumbre presenta la variación media más baja de todo el periodo. Además, se identifica un efecto asimétrico de la inflación sobre la incertidumbre inflacionaria, es decir, la incertidumbre inflacionaria tiende a incrementarse más para el siguiente periodo cuando la inflación pronosticada está por debajo de la inflación actual, que cuando la inflación pronosticada está por arriba de la tasa observada de inflación. Estos resultados tienen una clara implicación para la política monetaria. Para minimizar la dificultad que la inflación causa en la toma óptima de decisiones de los agentes económicos es necesario perseguir no solamente un nivel bajo de inflación sino que también sea estable.AbstractThis paper estimates a measure of inflationary uncertainty. An inflation model signals uncertainty when the forecast errors are heteroskedastic. By the specification of a GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) equation, for the variance of the error term of the inflation model, it is possible to estimate a proxy for inflationary uncertainty. By the simultaneous estimation of the inflation model and the GARCH equation, a new inflation model is obtained in which the forecast errors are homocedastic. Most economists agree that there is a positive correlation between inflationary uncertainty and the magnitude of the inflation rate, which, as was pointed out by Friedman (1977), represents one of costs associated with the persistence of inflation. This is because such uncertainty clouds the decision-making process of consumers and investors.The empirical evidence for the period 1954:01-2002:08 confirms that in the case of Costa Rica inflationary uncertainty increases as inflation rises. In the last seven years(1997-2002) the uncertainty present the mean variation most small of the period. In addition, inflation has an asymmetric effect on inflationary uncertainty. That is, when the inflation forecast is below the actual inflation, inflationary uncertainty increases for the next period. The opposite happens when the inflation forecast is above the observed rate of inflation. Besides, the absolute value of the change on uncertainty is greater in the first case than the second. These results have a clear implication for monetary policy. To minimize the disruptions that inflation causes to the economic decision-making process, it is necessary to pursue, not only a low level of inflation, but a stable one as well.

Technology, mining methods and landscapes of a placer mining district in Fairbanks, Alaska, 1900-1930

Placer miners in Alaska’s interior were part of the last great gold rush in North America. As word of gold in the Fairbanks Mining District traveled down the Yukon River, a wave of miners from the Klondike placer fields in Dawson, along with a assortment of speculators and inexperienced green horns from the Lower 48 converged on the confluence of the Tanana and Chena rivers hoping to strike it rich. The steamers coming from Dawson were integral; they carried miners with experience working the frozen subarctic placer deposits of the Klondike. These miners encountered new environmental challenges that required the development of new technologies and mining methods to efficiently harvest gold. These methods and machines were brought into Fairbanks and further perfected to account for the local conditions. This thesis describes the local mining technologies and methods employed in the Fairbanks district and the landscape patterns created during the placer mining boom years of 1903-1909, decline years of 1910-1923 and recovery of 1923-1930.

Quality improvement within nonprofit social service providers

As a relatively new phenomenon in 2009, Swedish nonprofit social service providers proposed quality improvement as a way to reduce mistakes, use resources more effectively and meet the needs and expectations of clients in a better way. Although similar experiences have been studied in health care, the transfer of quality improvement to nonprofit social services gives a possibility for more knowledge on what enables, and constrains, systematic quality improvement in this specific context. This thesis is based on five years of supporting quality improvement in the Swedish nonprofit welfare sector. Specifically, it builds knowledge on which active mechanisms and enabling or constraining structures exist for nonprofit social service quality improvement. By studying quality improvement projects that have been conducted in the development program Forum for Values, critical cases and broad overviews are found valuable. These cases have resulted in four papers on quality improvement in nonprofit social services. The papers include: critical cases from a nursing home for elderly and a daycare for disabled children (Paper I); a critical case from a sheltered housing (Paper II); an overview of performance measurements in 127 quality improvement projects (Paper III); and an analytical model of how improvement policy and practice are bridged by intermediaries (Paper IV). In this thesis, enabled or constrained events and activities related to Deming's system of profound knowledge are identified from the papers and elaborated upon. As a basis for transforming practice into continuous improvement, profound knowledge includes the four knowledge domains: appreciation of a system, theory of knowledge, understanding of variation and psychology of change. From a realist perspective, the identified events are seen as enabled or constrained by mechanisms and underlying regularities, or structures, in the context of nonprofit social services. The emerging mechanisms found in this thesis are: describing and reflecting upon project relations; forming and testing a theory of action; collecting and displaying measurable results over time; and engaging and participating in a development program. The structures that enable these mechanisms are: connecting projects to shared values such as client needs; local ownership of what should be measured; and translating quality improvement into a single practice. Constraining structures identified are: a lack of generalizable scientific knowledge and inappropriate or missing infrastructure for measurements. Reflecting upon the emergent structures of nonprofit social services, the role of political macro structures, reflective practice, competence in statistical methods and areas of expertise becomes important. From this discussion and the findings some hypotheses for future work can be formulated. First, the identified mechanisms and structures form a framework that helps explain why intended actions of quality improvement occur or not. This frameworkcan be part of formulating a program theory of quality improvement in nonprofit social services. With this theory, quality improvement can be evaluated, reflected upon and further developed in future interventions. Second,new quality improvement interventions can be reproduced more regularly by active work with known enablers and constraints from this program theory. This means that long-lasting interventions can be performed and studied in a second generation of improvement efforts. Third, if organizations integrate quality improvement as a part of their everyday practice they also develop context-specific knowledge about their services. This context-specific knowledge can be adopted and further developed through dedicated management and understanding of variation. Thus, if enabling structures are invoked and constraining structures handled, systematic quality improvement could be one way to integrate generalizable scientific knowledge as part of an evidence-creating practice.

Prevalencia e incidencia de cáncer en habitantes de Sibaté, y georeferenciación de casos 2010-2014

Introducción: El Cáncer es prevenible en algunos casos, si se evita la exposición a sustancias cancerígenas en el medio ambiente. En Colombia, Cundinamarca es uno de los departamentos con mayores incrementos en la tasa de mortalidad y en el municipio de Sibaté, habitantes han manifestado preocupación por el incremento de la enfermedad. En el campo de la salud ambiental mundial, la georreferenciación aplicada al estudio de fenómenos en salud, ha tenido éxito con resultados válidos. El estudio propuso usar herramientas de información geográfica, para generar análisis de tiempo y espacio que hicieran visible el comportamiento del cáncer en Sibaté y sustentaran hipótesis de influencias ambientales sobre concentraciones de casos. Objetivo: Obtener incidencia y prevalencia de casos de cáncer en habitantes de Sibaté y georreferenciar los casos en un periodo de 5 años, con base en indagación de registros. Metodología: Estudio exploratorio descriptivo de corte transversal,sobre todos los diagnósticos de cáncer entre los años 2010 a 2014, encontrados en los archivos de la Secretaria de Salud municipal. Se incluyeron unicamente quienes tuvieron residencia permanente en el municipio y fueron diagnosticados con cáncer entre los años de 2010 a 2104. Sobre cada caso se obtuvo género, edad, estrato socioeconómico, nivel académico, ocupación y estado civil. Para el análisis de tiempo se usó la fecha de diagnóstico y para el análisis de espacio, la dirección de residencia, tipo de cáncer y coordenada geográfica. Se generaron coordenadas geográficas con un equipo GPS Garmin y se crearon mapas con los puntos de la ubicación de las viviendas de los pacientes. Se proceso la información, con Epi Info 7 Resultados: Se encontraron 107 casos de cáncer registrados en la Secretaria de Salud de Sibaté, 66 mujeres, 41 hombres. Sin división de género, el 30.93% de la población presento cáncer del sistema reproductor, el 18,56% digestivo y el 17,53% tegumentario. Se presentaron 2 grandes casos de agrupaciones espaciales en el territorio estudiado, una en el Barrio Pablo Neruda con 12 (21,05%) casos y en el casco Urbano de Sibaté con 38 (66,67%) casos. Conclusión: Se corroboro que el análisis geográfico con variables espacio temporales y de exposición, puede ser la herramienta para generar hipótesis sobre asociaciones de casos de cáncer con factores ambientales.

A double chance to investigate populist influence: The Five Star Movement.

In the last decade, new kinds of European populist parties and movements characterized by a left wing, right wing or “eclectic” attitude have succeeded in entering in governments where they could exert a direct populist influence on their coalition partners or, conversely, become victims themselves of the influence of the institutional background. Such a scenario brought this research to formulate two questions: (i) “To what extent did populist parties succeed in influencing their government coalition partners, leading them to adopt populist rhetoric and change their policy positions?” and (ii) “Have populist parties been able to retain their populist “outside mainstream politics” identity, or have they been assimilated to mainstream parties?”. As a case study this project chose the Italian Five Star Movement. Since 2018 this eclectic populist actor has experienced three different governments first with the radical right wing populist League (2018-2019) and then with the mainstream center left Democratic Party (2019-2021). In addition to this, currently the Five Star Movement is a coalition partner of the ongoing Draghi’s government. Theoretically based on the ideological definition of populism (Mudde, 2004), on a new “revised” model of the inclusionary - exclusionary framework to classify populist parties and on a novel definition of “populist influence”,this research made use of both quantitative (bidimensional and text analysis) and qualitative methods (semi-structured interviews) and mainly focuses on the years 2017- 2020.The importance of this study is threefold. First it contributes to the study of populist influence in government in relation to the ideological attachment of the political actors involved. Second, it contributes to understand if populists in power necessarily need to tone down their anti-system character in order to survive. Third, this study introduces conceptual and methodological novelties within the study of populism and populist influence in government.

Disequilibrium Coefficient: A Bayesian Perspective

Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) is an important genetic property that populations should have whenever they are not observing adverse situations as complete lack of panmixia, excess of mutations, excess of selection pressure, etc. HWE for decades has been evaluated; both frequentist and Bayesian methods are in use today. While historically the HWE formula was developed to examine the transmission of alleles in a population from one generation to the next, use of HWE concepts has expanded in human diseases studies to detect genotyping error and disease susceptibility (association); Ryckman and Williams (2008). Most analyses focus on trying to answer the question of whether a population is in HWE. They do not try to quantify how far from the equilibrium the population is. In this paper, we propose the use of a simple disequilibrium coefficient to a locus with two alleles. Based on the posterior density of this disequilibrium coefficient, we show how one can conduct a Bayesian analysis to verify how far from HWE a population is. There are other coefficients introduced in the literature and the advantage of the one introduced in this paper is the fact that, just like the standard correlation coefficients, its range is bounded and it is symmetric around zero (equilibrium) when comparing the positive and the negative values. To test the hypothesis of equilibrium, we use a simple Bayesian significance test, the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST); see Pereira, Stern andWechsler (2008) for a complete review. The disequilibrium coefficient proposed provides an easy and efficient way to make the analyses, especially if one uses Bayesian statistics. A routine in R programs (R Development Core Team, 2009) that implements the calculations is provided for the readers.

Simple Excitation Model for Coaxial Driven Monopole Antennas

A new excitation model for the numerical solution of field integral equation (EFIE) applied to arbitrarily shaped monopole antennas fed by coaxial lines is presented. This model yields a stable solution for the input impedance of such antennas with very low numerical complexity and without the convergence and high parasitic capacitance problems associated with the usual delta gap excitation.

Model for facilities or vendors location in a global scale considering several echelons in the Chain

The facilities location problem for companies with global operations is very complex and not well explored in the literature. This work proposes a MILP model that solves the problem through minimization of the total logistic cost. Main contributions of the model are the pioneer carrying cost calculation, the treatment given to the take-or-pay costs and to the international tax benefits such as drawback and added value taxes in Brazil. The model was successfully applied to a real case of a chemical industry with industrial plants and sales all over the world. The model application recommended a totally new sourcing model for the company.

Identification of protein coding regions using the modified Gabor-wavelet transform

An important topic in genomic sequence analysis is the identification of protein coding regions. In this context, several coding DNA model-independent methods based on the occurrence of specific patterns of nucleotides at coding regions have been proposed. Nonetheless, these methods have not been completely suitable due to their dependence on an empirically predefined window length required for a local analysis of a DNA region. We introduce a method based on a modified Gabor-wavelet transform (MGWT) for the identification of protein coding regions. This novel transform is tuned to analyze periodic signal components and presents the advantage of being independent of the window length. We compared the performance of the MGWT with other methods by using eukaryote data sets. The results show that MGWT outperforms all assessed model-independent methods with respect to identification accuracy. These results indicate that the source of at least part of the identification errors produced by the previous methods is the fixed working scale. The new method not only avoids this source of errors but also makes a tool available for detailed exploration of the nucleotide occurrence.

The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.