890 resultados para Nelson and Siegel model


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This is a novel investigation of whether, and how, a single close supportive friendship may facilitate psychological resilience in socio-economically vulnerable British adolescents. A total of 409 adolescents (160 boys, 245 girls, four unknown), aged between 11 and 19 years, completed self-report measures of close friendship quality, psychological resilience, social support, and other resources. Findings revealed a significant positive association between perceived friendship quality and resilience. This relationship was facilitated through inter-related mechanisms of developing a constructive coping style (comprised of support-seeking and active coping), effort, a supportive friendship network, and reduced disengaged and externalising coping. While protective processes were encouragingly significantly present across genders, boys were more vulnerable to the deleterious effects of disengaged and externalizing coping than girls. We suggest that individual close friendships are an important potential protective mechanism accessible to most adolescents. We discuss implications of the resulting Adolescent Friendship and Resilience Model for resilience theories and integration into practice.

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The testing of novel biomaterials for percutaneous vertebroplasty depends on suitable animal models. The aim of this study was to develop ex vivo a reproducible and feasible model of percutaneous vertebroplasty, for ulterior application in vivo. A large animal model was used (Merino sheep), due to its translational properties. Vertebroplasty was performed under tactile and fluoroscopic control, through a bilateral modified parapedicular access in lumbar vertebrae (n=12). Care was taken in order to avoid disruption of the vertebral foramen. The average defect volume was 1234±240 mm3. This mean volume ensures practical defects to test novel injectable biomaterials. 6 vertebrae were injected with a commercial cement (Cerament®, Bone Support, Sweden). Adequate defect filling was observed in all vertebrae. All vertebrae were assessed by microCT, prior to and post defect creation and after biomaterial injection. All vertebrae were mechanical tested. No mechanical failure was observed under loads higher than the physiological. Ultimately, this model is considered suitable for pre-clinical in vivo studies, mimicking clinical application.

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A glicosilação não-enzimática e o stress oxidativo representam dois processos importantes visto desempenharem um papel importante no que respeita às complicações de vários processos patofisiológicos. No presente, a associação entre a glicosilação não-enzimática e a oxidação de proteínas é reconhecida como sendo um dos principais responsáveis pela acumulação de proteínas não-funcionais que, por sua vez, promove uma contínua sensibilização para um aumento do stress oxidativo ao nível celular. Embora esteja disponível bastante informação no que respeita aos dois processos e suas consequências ao nível estrutural e funcional, permanecem questões por esclarecer acerca do que se desenvolve ao nível molecular. Com o objectivo de contribuir para uma melhor compreensão da relação entre a glicosilação não-enzimática e a oxidação, proteínas modelo (albumina, insulina e histonas H2B e H1) foram submetidas a sistemas in vitro de glicosilação não-enzimática e oxidação em condições controladas e durante um período de tempo específico. A identificação dos locais de glicosilação e oxidação foi realizada através de uma abordagem proteómica, na qual após digestão enzimática se procedeu à análise por cromatografia líquida acoplada a espectrometria de massa tandem (MALDI-TOF/TOF). Esta abordagem permitiu a obtenção de elevadas taxas de cobertura das sequências proteicas, permitindo a identificação dos locais preferenciais de glicosilação e oxidação nas diferentes proteínas estudadas. Como esperado, os resíduos de lisina foram os preferencialmente glicosilados. No que respeita à oxidação, além das modificações envolvendo hidroxilações e adições de oxigénio, foram identificadas deamidações, carbamilações e conversões oxidativas específicas de vários aminoácidos. No geral, os resíduos mais afectados pela oxidação foram os resíduos de cisteína, metionina, triptofano, tirosina, prolina, lisina e fenilalanina. Ao longo do período de tempo estudado, os resultados indicaram que a oxidação teve início em zonas expostas da proteína e/ou localizadas na vizinhança de resíduos de cisteína e metionina, ao invés de exibir um comportamente aleatório, ocorrendo de uma forma nãolinear por sua vez dependente da estabilidade conformacional da proteína. O estudo ao longo do tempo mostrou igualmente que, no caso das proteínas préglicosiladas, a oxidação das mesmas ocorreu de forma mais rápida e acentuada, sugerindo que as alterações estruturais induzidas pela glicosilação promovem um estado pro-oxidativo. No caso das proteínas pré-glicosiladas e oxidadas, foi identificado um maior número de modificações oxidativas assim como de resíduos modificados na vizinhança de resíduos glicosilados. Com esta abordagem é realizada uma importante contribuição na investigação das consequências do dano ‘glico-oxidativo’ em proteínas ao nível molecular através da combinação da espectrometria de massa e da bioinformática.

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The fast increase in the energy’s price has brought a growing concern about the highly expensive task of transporting water. By creating an hydraulic model of the Water Supply System’s (WSS) network and predicting its behaviour, it is possible to take advantage of the energy’s tariffs, reducing the total cost on pumping activities. This thesis was developed, in association with a technology transfer project called the E-Pumping. It focuses on finding a flexible supervision and control strategy, adaptable to any existent Water Supply System (WSS), as well as forecasting the water demand on a time period chosen by the end user, so that the pumping actions could be planned to an optimum schedule, that minimizes the total operational cost. The OPC protocol, associated to a MySQL database were used to develop a flexible tool of supervision and control, due to their adaptability to function with equipments from various manufacturers, being another integrated modular part of the E-Pumping project. Furthermore, in this thesis, through the study and performance tests of several statistical models based on time series, specifically applied to this problem, a forecasting tool adaptable to any station, and whose model parameters are automatically refreshed at runtime, was developed and added to the project as another module. Both the aforementioned modules were later integrated with an Graphical User Interface (GUI) and installed in a pilot application at the ADDP’s network. The implementation of this software on WSSs across the country will reduce the water supply companies’ running costs, improving their market competition and, ultimately, lowering the water price to the end costumer.

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In this paper, a spiking neural network (SNN) architecture to simulate the sound localization ability of the mammalian auditory pathways using the interaural intensity difference cue is presented. The lateral superior olive was the inspiration for the architecture, which required the integration of an auditory periphery (cochlea) model and a model of the medial nucleus of the trapezoid body. The SNN uses leaky integrateand-fire excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons, facilitating synapses and receptive fields. Experimentally derived headrelated transfer function (HRTF) acoustical data from adult domestic cats were employed to train and validate the localization ability of the architecture, training used the supervised learning algorithm called the remote supervision method to determine the azimuthal angles. The experimental results demonstrate that the architecture performs best when it is localizing high-frequency sound data in agreement with the biology, and also shows a high degree of robustness when the HRTF acoustical data is corrupted by noise.

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Predictions which invoke evolutionary mechanisms ar e hard to test. Agent-based modeling in artificial life offers a way to simulate behaviors and interac tions in specific physical or social environments o ver many generations. The outcomes have implications fo r understanding adaptive value of behaviors in context. Pain-related behavior in animals is communicated to other animals that might protect or help, or might exploit or predate. An agent-based model simulated the effects of displaying or not displaying pain (expresser/non-expresser strategies) when injured, and of helping, ignoring or exploiting another in pain (altruistic/non-altruistic/selfish strategies) . Agents modeled in MATLAB interacted at random while foraging (gaining energy); random injury inte rrupted foraging for a fixed time unless help from an altruistic agent, who paid an energy cost, speeded recovery. Environmental and social conditions also varied, and each model ran for 10,000 iterations. Findings were meaningful in that, in general, conti ngencies evident from experimental work with a variety of mammals, over a few interactions, were r eplicated in the agent-based model after selection pressure over many generations. More energy-demandi ng expression of pain reduced its frequency in successive generations, and increasing injury frequ ency resulted in fewer expressers and altruists. Allowing exploitation of injured agents decreased e xpression of pain to near zero, but altruists remained. Decreasing costs or increasing benefits o f helping hardly changed its frequency, while increasing interaction rate between injured agents and helpers diminished the benefits to both. Agent- based modeling allows simulation of complex behavio urs and environmental pressures over evolutionary time.

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The region of the Algarve shows huge differences between the coastline where population in the urban areas grows, and the inland rural areas, in some cases very isolated, which frequently have high ageing indexes. This general scenario, with an elderly population with very different economic and social conditions, frames the ongoing PhD research designed as a cross-sectional study of an intentional sample of elderly persons. The basic theoretical framework departs from the perspective of developmental psychology of life-span and the model of selection, optimisation and compensation for optimal ageing (Baltes & Baltes, 1990; Freund & Baltes, 2002). The present study is a first step in the analysis of empirical data collected in the PhD sample (N=156; age range 65 to 97 years; M = 80.4 years; SD = 7.2 years). Its purpose is to assess the cognitive functioning of participants, screening for cognitive impairment and examine the relations between the cognitive status of the subjects and a number of selected variables including educational level, age, physical activity and living contexts of the subjects. We accessed the cognitive status of the participants with the Portuguese version of Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) finding a 10.3% prevalence of positive cases with cognitive impairment. The results also show significant relationships between the cognitive status accessed by the MMSE and educational level, professional qualification, age, living arrangement and activity level of the participants. The relationship verified between educational level and cognitive status of the participants was the largest correlation found in the study with the variability in educational level accounting for 44.8% of the variability in MMSE score. This results points in the same direction of several lines of research that corroborate the strong intercorrelation between education and cognitive functioning in old age.

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Tese de doutoramento, Engenharia Electrónica e Telecomunicações (Processamento de Sinal), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014

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A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

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The Weather Research and Forecasting model, integrated online with chemistry module, is a multi-scale model suitable for both research and operational forecasts of meteorology and air quality. It is used by many institutions for a variety of applications. In this study, the WRF v3.5 with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is applied to the area of Poland, for a period of 3-20 July 2006, when high concentrations of ground level ozone were observed. The meteorological and chemistry simulations were initiated with ERA-Interim reanalysis and TNO MACC II emissions database, respectively. The model physical parameterization includes RRTM shortwave radiation, Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme, Purdue Lin microphysics and ACM2 PBL, established previously as the optimal configuration. Chemical mechanism used for the study was RADM2 with MADE/SORGAM aerosols. Simulations were performed for three one-way nested domains covering Europe (36 km x 36 km), Central Europe (12 km x 12 km) and Poland (4 km x 4 km). The results from the innermost domain were analyzed and compared to measurements of ozone concentration at three stations in different environments. The results show underestimation of observed values and daily amplitude of ozone concentrations.

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This paper deals with and details the design and implementation of a low-power; hardware-efficient adaptive self-calibrating image rejection receiver based on blind-source-separation that alleviates the RF analog front-end impairments. Hybrid strength-reduced and re-scheduled data-flow, low-power implementation of the adaptive self-calibration algorithm is developed and its efficiency is demonstrated through simulation case studies. A behavioral and structural model is developed in Matlab as well as a low-level architectural design in VHDL providing valuable test benches for the performance measures undertaken on the detailed algorithms and structures.

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Deshopping is rapidly turning into a modern day scourge for the retailers worldwide due to its prevalence and regularity. The presence of flexible return policies have made retail return management a real challenging issue for both the present and the future. In this study, we propose and develop a multi-agent simulation model for deshopper behavior in a single shop context. The background, theoretical underpinning, logical and computational model, experiment design and simulation results are reported and discussed in the paper.

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This research examines media integration in China, choosing two Chinese newspaper groups as cases for comparative study. The study analyses the convergence strategies of these Chinese groups by reference to an Role Model of convergence developed from a literature review of studies of cases of media convergence in the UK – in particular the Guardian (GNM), Telegraph Media Group (TMG), the Daily Mail and the Times. UK cases serve to establish the characteristics, causes and consequences of different forms of convergence and formulate a model of convergence. The model will specify the levels of newsroom convergence and the sub-units of analysis which will be used to collect empirical data from Chinese News Organisations and compare their strategies, practices and results with the UK experience. The literature review shows that there is a need for more comparative studies of media convergence strategy in general, and particularly in relation to Chinese media. Therefore, the study will address a gap in the understanding of media convergence in China. For this reason, my innovations have three folds: Firstly, to develop a new and comprehensive model of media convergence and a detailed understanding of the reasons why media companies pursue differing strategies in managing convergence across a wide range of units of analysis. Secondly, this study tries to compare the multimedia strategies of media groups under radically different political systems. Since, there is no standard research method or systematic theoretical framework for the study of Newsroom Convergence, this study develops an integrated perspective. The research will use the triangulation analysis of textual, field observation and interviews to explain systematically what was the newsroom structure like in the past and how did the copy flow change and why. Finally, this case study of media groups can provide an industrial model or framework for the other media groups.

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Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

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In this study, the concentration probability distributions of 82 pharmaceutical compounds detected in the effluents of 179 European wastewater treatment plants were computed and inserted into a multimedia fate model. The comparative ecotoxicological impact of the direct emission of these compounds from wastewater treatment plants on freshwater ecosystems, based on a potentially affected fraction (PAF) of species approach, was assessed to rank compounds based on priority. As many pharmaceuticals are acids or bases, the multimedia fate model accounts for regressions to estimate pH-dependent fate parameters. An uncertainty analysis was performed by means of Monte Carlo analysis, which included the uncertainty of fate and ecotoxicity model input variables, as well as the spatial variability of landscape characteristics on the European continental scale. Several pharmaceutical compounds were identified as being of greatest concern, including 7 analgesics/anti-inflammatories, 3 β-blockers, 3 psychiatric drugs, and 1 each of 6 other therapeutic classes. The fate and impact modelling relied extensively on estimated data, given that most of these compounds have little or no experimental fate or ecotoxicity data available, as well as a limited reported occurrence in effluents. The contribution of estimated model input variables to the variance of freshwater ecotoxicity impact, as well as the lack of experimental abiotic degradation data for most compounds, helped in establishing priorities for further testing. Generally, the effluent concentration and the ecotoxicity effect factor were the model input variables with the most significant effect on the uncertainty of output results.