Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

The risk of falling into the acceleration trap during a privatization process: a case study of a European telecommunication company

A privatização de uma empresa é uma mudança empresarial disruptiva que geralmente coincide com o fim de uma posição de monopólio e da subsequente entrada num ambiente competitivo. Os desafios que a privatização coloca são tão árduos que eles levam muitas vezes a liderança (leadership) para executar planos ambiciosos de mudança empresarial. No entanto, a literatura mostra que muitos deles falharam. Na verdade, esses planos preveem mudanças bruscas e importantes que tendem a empurrar a empresa privatizada na armadilha de aceleração (acceleration trap). Um tipo de “burnout organizacional” (organizational burnout) onde a exaustão e a resignação da força de trabalho afetam drasticamente o desempenho da empresa. A tese, portanto, focalizou em estudar a ligação entre um processo de privatização e o risco de cair na armadilha de aceleração. Uma investigação preliminar sobre a literatura das mudanças empresariais permitiu a concepção de um quadro preliminar teórico que sugere a existência de dois moderadores (moderators) deste relacionamento entre um processo de privatização e a armadilha de aceleração: um “choque cultural” (cultural clash) e um “fraco clima de liderança transformacional” (weak transformational leadership). Em seguida, um estudo de caso - baseado numa empresa de telecomunicações europeia e conduzido através de uma abordagem metodológico não puramente indutivo (non-purely inductive approach) - confirma, mas também aprofunda a compreensão da ação desses dois moderadores. A respeito do moderador “choque cultural” (cultural clash moderator), a análise de dados do estudo de caso da empresa de telecomunicações europeia mostra a importância exercitado tanto por um “choque de identidade corporativa” (corporate identity conflict) como por um “conflito de identidade gerencial” (management identity conflict). Quanto ao moderador “fraco liderança transformacional”, a análise dos dados destaca o papel da “falta de confiança na nova gerência” (lack of trust in the new management), mas também de “sentido do trabalho” (lack of job sense), principalmente através da perda de “orgulho no trabalho” (loss of proudness). Finalmente, a análise dos dados salienta que a “não aceitação do novo sistema de incentivos” (non-acceptance of the new incentive system) afeta significativamente a relação entre a privatização e a armadilha de aceleração, contribuindo tanto para um “choque cultural” como para um “fraco clima de liderança transformacional”.

Lifestyle factors, direct and indirect costs for a Brazilian airline company

OBJECTIVE: To analyze lifestyle risk factors related to direct healthcare costs and the indirect costs due to sick leave among workers of an airline company in Brazil. METHODS: In this longitudinal 12-month study of 2,201 employees of a Brazilian airline company, the costs of sick leave and healthcare were the primary outcomes of interest. Information on the independent variables, such as gender, age, educational level, type of work, stress, and lifestyle-related factors (body mass index, physical activity, and smoking), was collected using a questionnaire on enrolment in the study. Data on sick leave days were available from the company register, and data on healthcare costs were obtained from insurance records. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to investigate the association between direct and indirect healthcare costs with sociodemographic, work, and lifestyle-related factors. RESULTS: Over the 12-month study period, the average direct healthcare expenditure per worker was US$505.00 and the average indirect cost because of sick leave was US$249.00 per worker. Direct costs were more than twice the indirect costs and both were higher in women. Body mass index was a determinant of direct costs and smoking was a determinant of indirect costs. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and smoking among workers in a Brazilian airline company were associated with increased health costs. Therefore, promoting a healthy diet, physical activity, and anti-tobacco campaigns are important targets for health promotion in this study population.

Neural network based estimation of torque in induction motors for real-time applications

Induction motors are largely used in several industry sectors. The selection of an induction motor has still been inaccurate because in most of the cases the load behavior in its shaft is completely unknown. The proposal of this article is to use artificial neural networks for torque estimation with the purpose of best selecting the induction motors rather than conventional methods, which use classical identification techniques and mechanical load modeling. Since proposed approach estimates the torque behavior from the transient to the steady state, one of its main contributions is the potential to also be implemented in control schemes for real-time applications. Simulation results are also presented to validate the proposed approach.

A New Approach for Real Time Fault Diagnosis in Induction Motors Based on Vibration Measurement

Condition monitoring is used to increase machinery availability and machinery performance, reducing consequential damage, increasing machine life, reducing spare parts inventories, and reducing breakdown maintenance. An efficient real time vibration measurement and analysis instruments is capable of providing warning and predicting faults at early stages. In this paper, a new methodology for the implementation of vibration measurement and analysis instruments in real time based on circuit architecture mapped from a MATLAB/Simulink model is presented. In this study, signal processing applications such as FIR filters and fast Fourier transform are treated as systems, which are implemented in hardware using a system generator toolbox, which translates a Simulink model in a hardware description language - HDL for FPGA implementations.

Comments on Magnetically levitated micro PM motors by two types of active magnetic bearings

This note clarifies the design of proportional derivative (PD) controllers for the magnetic levitation systems of micro PM motors proposed in the above paper. It is shown that the PD controllers cannot stabilize the described levited micro motors because it is necessary to use other values of parameters for these controllers. We present necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of the controlled systems described in the paper.

HACCP plan proposal for a typical Brazilian peanut processing company

Peanuts are likely to be infested by fungi with consequent contamination by aflatoxin in post-harvest industries. A hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) plan is proposed for a typical Brazilian post-harvest industry from raw in-shell reception to the unpeeled peanuts transportation. Codex Alimentarius Commission guidelines were followed, with four critical control points (CCP) for aflatoxin being identified. The process steps with highest probability of aflatoxin occurrence (risk) are the in-shell reception, the dried in-shell storage, and the unpeeled kernel storage. During the storage steps there is a lack of control of air moisture and temperature. Therefore, there is no option but to keep rigid monitoring and control over each CCP, and detour lots with high aflatoxin levels to either oil or seed production. Attempts to correlate the aflatoxin levels with the rainfall showed an irregular trend of the toxin level. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work and injuries in dancers: Survey of a professional dance company in Brazil

This study examined the daily life and most important physical injuries suffered and reported by the dancers of a professional (contemporary) dance company in S (a) over tilde $o Paulo, Brazil. Through an observational, cross,sectional, retrospective procedure using a questionnaire that collected qualitative and quantitative data, we were able to gather information on 30 dancers who collaborated with the survey. We determined that the injuries considered as most important by dancers were those that prevented dance activity during some months. These injuries occurred mainly during rehearsals (which is the activity occuppying, the most time on the schedule). Articular injuries were the most frequent and mainly involved the knee and ankle. They were related to classical technique, in which most of the company's artists started their dance careers. Medical care usually was sought within 1 day, and the prescribed treatment resolved the problem, but the injury cause was not identified in all cases.

Load torque estimation in induction motors using artificial neural networks

The induction motors are largely used in several industry sectors. The dimensioning of an induction motor has still been inaccurate because in most of the cases the load behavior in its shaft is completely unknown. The proposal of this paper is to use artificial neural networks as tool for dimensioning of induction motors rather than conventional methods, which use classical identification techniques and mechanical load modeling. Simulation results are also presented to validate the proposed approach.

Unbalanced Three-Phase Induction Motors Starting and Arc Welding Machines Short-Circuit Modeling

Three-Phase Induction Motors (TIM) and Arc Welding Machines (AWM) are loads of special behavior widely used in industrial and commercial installations, and therefore may contribute significantly to the deterioration of the quality of energy supplied by utilities. This paper proposes a modeling in constant power of the unbalanced TIM starting using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and AWM short-circuit based on their statics characteristics curves. The proposed models are compared with the conventional models in the literature. The results showed the good performance of the proposed models, allowing a more precise analysis of the real requests of these loads.

HPF boost interleaved operating in discontinuous conduction mode for trolleybus application

This paper deals with results of a research and development (R&D) project in cooperation with Electric Power Distribution Company in São Paulo (Brazil) regarding the development and experimental analysis of a new concept of power drive system suitable for application in traction systems of electrical vehicles pulled by electrical motors, which can be powered by urban DC or AC distribution networks. The proposed front-end structure is composed by five boost power cells in interleaving connection, operating in discontinuous conduction mode as AC-DC converter, or as DC-DC converter, in order to provide the proper DC output voltage range required by DC or AC adjustable speed drivers. Therefore, when supplied by single-phase AC distribution networks, and operating as AC-DC converter, it is capable to provide high power factor, reduced harmonic distortion in the input current, complying with the restrictions imposed by the IEC 61000-3-4 standards resulting in significant improvements for the trolleybuses systems efficiency and for the urban distribution network costs. Considering the compliance with input current restrictions imposed by IEC 61000-3-4 standards, two digital control strategies were evaluated. The digital controller has been implemented using a low cost FPGA (XC3S200) and developed totally using a hardware description language VHDL and fixed point arithmetic. Experimental results from a 15 kW low power scale prototype operating in DC and AC conditions are presented, in order to verify the feasibility and performance of the proposed system. © 2009 IEEE.

Integration in new product development: Case study in a large Brazilian high-technology company

Proficiency in management activities undertaken in product development processes is regarded as a key competitive advantage for companies, particularly for high-tech industrial firms, which benefit from the important competitiveness factor of launching products with a differentiated technological content. This paper's objective was to identify, through case study, practices for integration between the roles of R & D with others involved in product development in a large Brazilian company of industrial automation. The results suggest some management practices to improve the integration in new products development, such as the use of employees from marketing with knowledge and experience previously gained from R & D activities and uses the heavyweight product manager to solve synchronization problems between product and technology development. © Universidad Alberto Hurtado, Facultad de Economía y Negocios.

Worker participation in company profits or operating results in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Multi-choice mixed integer goal programming optimization for real problems in a sugar and ethanol milling company

Goal Programming (GP) is an important analytical approach devised to solve many realworld problems. The first GP model is known as Weighted Goal Programming (WGP). However, Multi-Choice Aspirations Level (MCAL) problems cannot be solved by current GP techniques. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Choice Mixed Integer Goal Programming model (MCMI-GP) for the aggregate production planning of a Brazilian sugar and ethanol milling company. The MC-MIGP model was based on traditional selection and process methods for the design of lots, representing the production system of sugar, alcohol, molasses and derivatives. The research covers decisions on the agricultural and cutting stages, sugarcane loading and transportation by suppliers and, especially, energy cogeneration decisions; that is, the choice of production process, including storage stages and distribution. The MCMIGP allows decision-makers to set multiple aspiration levels for their problems in which the more/higher, the better and the less/lower, the better in the aspiration levels are addressed. An application of the proposed model for real problems in a Brazilian sugar and ethanol mill was conducted; producing interesting results that are herein reported and commented upon. Also, it was made a comparison between MCMI GP and WGP models using these real cases. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.