How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Transient Ischemic Dilation (TID) ratio measurement during Rb-82 cardiac PET: Comparison between three different software packages.

Background: TIDratio indirectly reflects myocardial ischemia and is correlated with cardiacprognosis. We aimed at comparing the influence of three different softwarepackages for the assessment of TID using Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT. Methods: Intotal, data of 30 patients were used based on normal myocardial perfusion(SSS<3 and SRS<3) and stress myocardial blood flow 2mL/min/g)assessed by Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT. After reconstruction using 2D OSEM (2Iterations, 28 subsets), 3-D filtering (Butterworth, order=10, ωc=0.5), data were automatically processed, and then manually processed fordefining identical basal and apical limits on both stress and rest images.TIDratio were determined with Myometrix®, ECToolbox® and QGS®software packages. Comparisons used ANOVA, Student t-tests and Lin concordancetest (ρc). Results: All of the 90 processings were successfullyperformed. TID ratio were not statistically different between software packageswhen data were processed automatically (P=0.2) or manually (P=0.17). There was a slight, butsignificant relative overestimation of TID with automatic processing incomparison to manual processing using ECToolbox® (1.07 ± 0.13 vs 1.0± 0.13, P=0.001)and Myometrix® (1.07 ± 0.15 vs 1.01 ± 0.11, P=0.003) but not using QGS®(1.02 ±0.12 vs 1.05 ± 0.11, P=0.16). The best concordance was achieved between ECToolbox®and Myometrix® manual (ρc=0.67) processing.Conclusion: Using automatic or manual mode TID estimation was not significantlyinfluenced by software type. Using Myometrix® or ECToolbox®TID was significantly different between automatic and manual processing, butnot using QGS®. Software package should be account for when definingTID normal reference limits, as well as when used in multicenter studies. QGS®software seemed to be the most operator-independent software package, whileECToolbox® and Myometrix® produced the closest results.

Two nucleon induced Lambda decay and the proton to neutron induced ratio

We reanalyze the decay mode of Lambda hypernuclei induced by two nucleons modifying previous numerical results and the interpretation of the process. The repercussions of this channel in the ratio of neutron to proton induced Lambda decay is studied in detail in connection with the present experimental data. This leads to ratios that are in greater contradiction with usual one pion exchange models than those deduced before.

Environmental sex reversal, Trojan sex genes, and sex ratio adjustment: conditions and population consequences.

Abstract The great diversity of sex determination mechanisms in animals and plants ranges from genetic sex determination (GSD, e.g. mammals, birds, and most dioecious plants) to environmental sex determination (ESD, e.g. many reptiles) and includes a mixture of both, for example when an individual's genetically determined sex is environmentally reversed during ontogeny (ESR, environmental sex reversal, e.g. many fish and amphibia). ESD and ESR can lead to widely varying and unstable population sex ratios. Populations exposed to conditions such as endocrine-active substances or temperature shifts may decline over time due to skewed sex ratios, a scenario that may become increasingly relevant with greater anthropogenic interference on watercourses. Continuous exposure of populations to factors causing ESR could lead to the extinction of genetic sex factors and may render a population dependent on the environmental factors that induce the sex change. However, ESR also presents opportunities for population management, especially if the Y or W chromosome is not, or not severely, degenerated. This seems to be the case in many amphibians and fish. Population growth or decline in such species can potentially be controlled through the introduction of so-called Trojan sex genes carriers, individuals that possess sex chromosomes or genes opposite from what their phenotype predicts. Here, we review the conditions for ESR, its prevalence in natural populations, the resulting physiological and reproductive consequences, and how these may become instrumental for population management.

Particulate soil organic carbon and stratification ratio increases in response to crop residue decomposition under no-till

In soils under no-tillage (NT), the continuous crop residue input to the surface layer leads to carbon (C) accumulation. This study evaluated a soil under NT in Ponta Grossa (State of Paraná, Brazil) for: 1) the decomposition of black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, 2) relation of the biomass decomposition effect with the soil organic carbon (SOC) content, the particulate organic carbon (POC) content, and the soil carbon stratification ratio (SR) of an Inceptisol. The assessments were based on seven samplings (t0 to t6) in a period of 160 days of three transects with six sampling points each. The oat dry biomass was 5.02 Mg ha-1 at t0, however, after 160 days, only 17.8 % of the initial dry biomass was left on the soil surface. The SOC in the 0-5 cm layer varied from 27.56 (t0) to 30.07 g dm-3 (t6). The SR increased from 1.33 to 1.43 in 160 days. There was also an increase in the POC pool in this period, from 8.1 to 10.7 Mg ha-1. The increase in SOC in the 0-5 cm layer in the 160 days was mainly due to the increase of POC derived from oat residue decomposition. The linear relationship between SOC and POC showed that 21 % of SOC was due to the more labile fraction. The results indicated that the continuous input of residues could be intensified to increase the C pool and sequestration in soils under NT.

Transparency ratio in γ A -> η' A ' and the in-medium η ' width

The photoproduction of η′η′-mesons off different nuclei has been measured with the CBELSA/TAPS detector system for incident photon energies between 15002200 MeV. The transparency ratio has been deduced and compared to theoretical calculations describing the propagation of η′η′-mesons in nuclei. The comparison indicates a width of the η′η′-meson of the order of Γ=1525 MeVΓ=1525 MeV at ρ=ρ0ρ=ρ0 for an average momentum pη′=1050 MeV/cpη′=1050 MeV/c, at which the η′η′-meson is produced in the nuclear rest frame. The inelastic η′Nη′N cross section is estimated to be 310 mb. Parameterizing the photoproduction cross section of η′η′-mesons by σ(A)=σ0Aασ(A)=σ0Aα, a value of α=0.84±0.03α=0.84±0.03 has been deduced.

Divergent signal-to-noise ratio and stochastic resonance in monostable systems

We present a class of systems for which the signal-to-noise ratio always increases when increasing the noise and diverges at infinite noise level. This new phenomenon is a direct consequence of the existence of a scaling law for the signal-to-noise ratio and implies the appearance of stochastic resonance in some monostable systems. We outline applications of our results to a wide variety of systems pertaining to different scientific areas. Two particular examples are discussed in detail.

Combination of carbon isotope ratio with hydrogen isotope ratio determinations in sports drug testing.

Carbon isotope ratio (CIR) analysis has been routinely and successfully applied to doping control analysis for many years to uncover the misuse of endogenous steroids such as testosterone. Over the years, several challenges and limitations of this approach became apparent, e.g., the influence of inadequate chromatographic separation on CIR values or the emergence of steroid preparations comprising identical CIRs as endogenous steroids. While the latter has been addressed recently by the implementation of hydrogen isotope ratios (HIR), an improved sample preparation for CIR avoiding co-eluting compounds is presented herein together with newly established reference values of those endogenous steroids being relevant for doping controls. From the fraction of glucuronidated steroids 5β-pregnane-3α,20α-diol, 5α-androst-16-en-3α-ol, 3α-Hydroxy-5β-androstane-11,17-dione, 3α-hydroxy-5α-androstan-17-one (ANDRO), 3α-hydroxy-5β-androstan-17-one (ETIO), 3β-hydroxy-androst-5-en-17-one (DHEA), 5α- and 5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol (5aDIOL and 5bDIOL), 17β-hydroxy-androst-4-en-3-one and 17α-hydroxy-androst-4-en-3-one were included. In addition, sulfate conjugates of ANDRO, ETIO, DHEA, 3β-hydroxy-5α-androstan-17-one plus 17α- and androst-5-ene-3β,17β-diol were considered and analyzed after acidic solvolysis. The results obtained for the reference population encompassing n = 67 males and females confirmed earlier findings regarding factors influencing endogenous CIR. Variations in sample preparation influenced CIR measurements especially for 5aDIOL and 5bDIOL, the most valuable steroidal analytes for the detection of testosterone misuse. Earlier investigations on the HIR of the same reference population enabled the evaluation of combined measurements of CIR and HIR and its usefulness regarding both steroid metabolism studies and doping control analysis. The combination of both stable isotopes would allow for lower reference limits providing the same statistical power and certainty to distinguish between the endo- or exogenous origin of a urinary steroid.

Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions

The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.

Compliance to dietary advice directed towards increasing the carbohydrate to fat ratio of the everyday diet.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects, on food intake, body weight and body composition, of compliance to advice aiming at increasing the carbohydrate to fat ratio of the everyday diet without imposing voluntary restriction on the amount of food consumed. DESIGN: Eight moderately overweight women (body mass index > 27 kg/m2, relative body fat mass > 30%) received dietary advice during a 2 month period. Additionally, each evening the subjects had to consume a meal artificially enriched with 13C-glucose in order to assess their compliance from the 13CO2 enrichment in expired air. MEASUREMENTS: Dietary intakes, body weight, body composition and individual compliance. RESULTS: The energy derived from fat decreased from 44 +/- 1% to 31 +/- 1% and the proportion of carbohydrate increased from 38 +/- 2% to 50 +/- 1%, whereas the absolute carbohydrate intake remained constant (182 +/- 18 g/d). Energy intake decreased by 1569 +/- 520 kJ/d. There was a net loss of fat mass (1.7 +/- 0.7 kg, P = 0.016) with fat free mass maintenance. Dietary compliance ranged from 20 to 93% (mean: 60 +/- 8%) and was positively correlated to the loss of body fat mass. CONCLUSION: Advice aiming at increasing diet's carbohydrate to fat ratio induces a loss of fat mass with fat-free mass maintenance.

Manipulating sex ratio to increase population growth: the example of the Lesser Kestrel

Small or decreasing populations call for emergency actions like, for example, captive breeding programs. Such programs aim at rapidly increasing population sizes in order to reduce the loss of genetic variability and to avoid possible Allee effects. The Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni is one of the species that is currently supported in several captive breeding programs at various locations. Here, we model the demographic and genetic consequences of potential management strategies that are based on offspring sex ratio manipulation. Increased population growth could be achieved by manipulating female conditions and/or male attractiveness in the captive breeders and consequently shifting the offspring sex ratio towards more female offspring, which are then used for reintroduction. Fragmenting populations into wild-breeding and captive-breeding demes and manipulating population sex ratio both immediately increase the inbreeding coefficient in the next generation (i.e. decrease N-e) but may, in the long term, reduce the loss of genetic variability if population growth is restricted by the number of females. We use the Lesser Kestrel and the wealth of information that is available on this species to predict the long-term consequences of various kinds of sex-ratio manipulation. We find that, in our example and possibly in many other cases, a sex-ratio manipulation that seems realistic could have a beneficial effect on the captive breeding program. However, the possible long-term costs and benefits of such measures need to be carefully optimized.

Adjuvants that improve the ratio of antigen-specific effector to regulatory T cells enhance tumor immunity.

Antitumor immunity is strongly influenced by the balance of tumor antigen-specific effector and regulatory T cells. However, the impact that vaccine adjuvants have in regulating the balance of antigen-specific T cell populations is not well understood. We found that antigen-specific T regulatory cells (Treg) were induced following subcutaneous vaccination with either OVA or melanoma-derived peptides, with a restricted expansion of effector T cells. Addition of the adjuvants CpG-ODN or Poly(I:C) preferentially amplified effector T cells over Tregs, dramatically increasing the antigen-specific T effector:Treg ratios and inducing polyfunctional effector cells. In contrast, two other adjuvants, imiquimod and Quil A saponin, favored an expansion of antigen-specific Tregs and failed to increase effector T cell:Treg ratios. Following therapeutic vaccination of tumor-bearing mice, high ratios of tumor-specific effector T cells:Tregs in draining lymph nodes were associated with enhanced CD8+ T cell infiltration at the tumor site and a durable rejection of tumors. Vaccine formulations of peptide+CpG-ODN or Poly(I:C) induced selective production of pro-inflammatory Type I cytokines early after vaccination. This environment promoted CD8+ and CD4+ effector T cell expansion over that of antigen-specific Tregs, tipping the effector T cell to Treg balance to favor effector cells. Our findings advance understanding of the influence of different adjuvants on T cell populations, facilitating the rational design of more effective cancer vaccines.

Quality of life following third molar removal under conscious sedation

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess quality of life (QoL) and degree of satisfaction among outpatients subjected to surgical extraction of all four third molars under conscious sedation. A second objective was to describe the evolution of self-reported pain measured in a visual analogue scale (VAS) in the 7 days after extraction. Study design: Fifty patients received a questionnaire assessing social isolation, working isolation, eating and speaking ability, diet modifications, sleep impairment, changes in physical appearance, discomfort at suture removal and overall satisfaction at days 4 and 7 after surgery. Pain was recorded by patients on a 100-mm pain visual analogue scale (VAS) every day after extraction until day 7. Results: Thirty-nine patients fulfilled correctly the questionnaire. Postoperative pain values suffered small fluctuations until day 5 (range: 23 to 33 mm in a 100-mm VAS), when dicreased significantly. A positive association was observed between difficult ranked surgeries and higher postoperative pain levels. The average number of days for which the patient stopped working was 4.9. Conclusion: The removal of all third molars in a single appointment causes an important deterioration of the patient"s QoL during the first postoperative week, especially due to local pain and eating discomfort.