Ozone and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies and Comparison to a Multi-City Study (The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study)

While many time-series studies of ozone and daily mortality identified positive associations,others yielded null or inconclusive results. We performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 time-series studies, and estimated pooled effects by lags, age groups,cause-specific mortality, and concentration metrics. We compared results to estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), a time-series study of 95 large U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Both meta-analysis and NMMAPS results provided strong evidence of a short-term association between ozone and mortality, with larger effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, the elderly, and current day ozone exposure as compared to other single day lags. In both analyses, results were not sensitive to adjustment for particulate matter and model specifications. In the meta-analysis we found that a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone is associated with a 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 1.12%) increase in total mortality, whereas the corresponding NMMAPS estimate is 0.25%(0.12, 0.39%). Meta-analysis results were consistently larger than those from NMMAPS,indicating publication bias. Additional publication bias is evident regarding the choice of lags in time-series studies, and the larger heterogeneity in posterior city-specific estimates in the meta-analysis, as compared with NMAMPS.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Monitoring pollution in river Mure , Romania, Part III: biochemical effect markers in fish and integrative reflection

Along a downstream stretch of River Mure , Romania, adult males of two feral fish species, European chub (Leuciscus cephalus) and sneep (Chondrostoma nasus) were sampled at four sites with different levels of contamination. Fish were analysed for the biochemical markers hsp70 (in liver and gills) and hepatic EROD activity, as well as several biometrical parameters (age, length, wet weight, condition factor). None of the biochemical markers correlated with any biometrical parameter, thus biomarker reactions were related to site-specific criteria. While the hepatic hsp70 level did not differ among the sites, significant elevation of the hsp70 level in the gills revealed proteotoxic damage in chub at the most upstream site, where we recorded the highest heavy metal contamination of the investigated stretch, and in both chub and sneep at the site right downstream of the city of Arad. In both species, significantly elevated hepatic EROD activity downstream of Arad indicated that fish from these sites are also exposed to organic chemicals. The results were indicative of impaired fish health at least at three of the four investigated sites. The approach to relate biomarker responses to analytical data on pollution was shown to fit well the recent EU demands on further enhanced efforts in the monitoring of Romanian water quality.

Minimum ten year results of total hip arthroplasty with the acetabular reinforcement ring in avascular osteonecrosis

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) still carries a higher failure rate in patients with avascular necrosis of the femoral head (AVN) than in a similar patient population with THA for other reasons. This is particularly true for the acetabular component. One of the major factors accounting for this is the compromised acetabular bone quality with structural defects subsequent to collapsing of the femoral head in high-grade AVN. In this study we implanted an acetabular reinforcement ring with hook (ARRH), which had been used successfully for other indications with acetabular bone stock deficiency, in 32 consecutive THA's in 29 patients with AVN. Five patients died during the observation period of causes unrelated to the surgery, one patient was lost to follow-up and one patient could not be followed up due to chronic illness, leaving 25 hips (23 patients) with a minimum follow-up of ten years (mean: 11.8; range: 10-15). The mean Merle d'Aubigne score increased significantly from 7.7 preoperatively to 16.6 postoperatively (p < 0.001). One revision was performed for aseptic stem loosening. Of the unrevised hips, one acetabular component was classified as definitively loose. The cumulative 12-year survivorship for THA with ARRH in AVN was 95.2% (confidence interval: 86.1-100%) for both components, 100% for the cup and 95.2% for the stem (86.1-100%).

Reattachment of the tuberosities with cable wires and bone graft in hemiarthroplasties done for proximal humeral fractures with cable wire and bone graft: 58 patients with a 22-month minimum follow-up

OBJECTIVE: The stability of 2 fixation techniques for the tuberosities in patients with 3- or 4-part proximal humerus fractures treated with hemiarthroplasties was compared. DESIGN: Retrospective review of a nonrandomized sequential series of patients. SETTING: Level I university orthopaedic surgery department. PATIENTS: A consecutive series of 58 patients (average age, 64 years) from 1990 to 1999 with 3- and 4-part fractures of the proximal humerus. INTERVENTION: In group 1, 31 patients were treated with either a Neer or Aequalis shoulder prosthesis using nonabsorbable sutures and no bone graft for the reattachment of the tuberosities. In group 2, 27 patients were treated with either an Aequalis or Epoca shoulder prosthesis and a combination of cable fixation and bone grafting. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: At follow-up (average, 32 months), radiographs were taken to confirm tuberosity fixation or degree of displacement or resorption. Functional outcome was assessed by the Constant-Murley Score. RESULTS: Significantly more dislocated tuberosities were found radiographically in group 1 (10 of 13 in total, P = 0.011), and significantly more tuberosities were resorbed in group 1 (9 of 12 in total, P = 0.012). Significant differences in functional results among healed versus failed tuberosity fixation were observed for activity of daily living (P = 0.05), range of motion (P = 0.002), strength (P = 0.01), the total score (P = 0.008), and the passive rotation amplitude (P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: In hemiarthroplasties for proximal humeral fractures, the reattachment of the tuberosities with cable wire and bone grafting gives consistently better radiographic and functional results than with suture fixation alone.

Air pollution during pregnancy and lung function in newborns: a birth cohort study

Post-natal exposure to air pollution is associated with diminished lung growth during school age. The current authors aimed to determine whether pre-natal exposure to air pollution is associated with lung function changes in the newborn. In a prospective birth cohort of 241 healthy term-born neonates, tidal breathing, lung volume, ventilation inhomogeneity and exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) were measured during unsedated sleep at age 5 weeks. Maternal exposure to particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 microm (PM(10)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and ozone (O(3)), and distance to major roads were estimated during pregnancy. The association between these exposures and lung function was assessed using linear regression. Minute ventilation was higher in infants with higher pre-natal PM(10) exposure (24.9 mL x min(-1) per microg x m(-3) PM(10)). The eNO was increased in infants with higher pre-natal NO(2) exposure (0.98 ppb per microg x m(-3) NO(2)). Post-natal exposure to air pollution did not modify these findings. No association was found for pre-natal exposure to O(3) and lung function parameters. The present results suggest that pre-natal exposure to air pollution might be associated with higher respiratory need and airway inflammation in newborns. Such alterations during early lung development may be important regarding long-term respiratory morbidity.

Acetabular reinforcement ring in primary total hip arthroplasty: a minimum 10-year follow-up

INTRODUCTION: We report the results of a titanium acetabular reinforcement ring with a hook (ARRH) in primary total hip arthroplasty (THA), which was introduced in 1987 and continues to be used routinely in our center. The favorable results of this device in arthroplasty for developmental dysplasia and difficult revisions motivated its use in primary THA. With this implant only minimal acetabular reaming is necessary, anatomic positioning is achieved by placing the hook around the teardrop and a homogenous base for cementing the polyethylene cup is provided. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between April 1987 and December 1991, 241 THAs with insertion of an ARRH were performed in 178 unselected, consecutive patients (average age 58 years; range 30-84 years) with a secondary osteoarthrosis in 41% of the cases. RESULTS: At the time of the latest follow-up, 33 patients (39 hips) had died and 17 cases had been lost to follow-up. The median follow-up was 122 months with a minimum of 10 years. Eight hips had been revised, leaving 177 hips in 120 living patients without revision. Six cups were revised because of aseptic loosening. Two hips were revised for sepsis. The mean Merle d'Aubigné score for the remaining hips was 16 (range 7-18) at the latest follow-up. For aseptic loosening, the probability of survival of the cup was 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.94-0.99). However, analysis of radiographs implied loosening in seven other cups without clinical symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The results of primary THA using an acetabular reinforcement ring parallel the excellent results of these implants often observed in difficult primary and revision arthroplasty at a minimum of 10 years. Survivorship is comparable to modern cementless implants. Medial migration that occurs with loosening of the acetabular component seems to be prevented with this implant. Radiographic loosening signs can exist without clinical symptoms.

Long-Range Pollution Transport: Trans-Atlantic Mechanisms and Lagrangian Modeling Methods

Over the past several decades, it has become apparent that anthropogenic activities have resulted in the large-scale enhancement of the levels of many trace gases throughout the troposphere. More recently, attention has been given to the transport pathway taken by these emissions as they are dispersed throughout the atmosphere. The transport pathway determines the physical characteristics of emissions plumes and therefore plays an important role in the chemical transformations that can occur downwind of source regions. For example, the production of ozone (O3) is strongly dependent upon the transport its precursors undergo. O3 can initially be formed within air masses while still over polluted source regions. These polluted air masses can experience continued O3 production or O3 destruction downwind, depending on the air mass's chemical and transport characteristics. At present, however, there are a number of uncertainties in the relationships between transport and O3 production in the North Atlantic lower free troposphere. The first phase of the study presented here used measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory and model simulations to determine transport pathways for US emissions to the observatory. The Pico Mountain observatory was established in the summer of 2001 in order to address the need to understand the relationships between transport and O3 production. Measurements from the observatory were analyzed in conjunction with model simulations from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM), FLEX-PART, in order to determine the transport pathway for events observed at the Pico Mountain observatory during July 2003. A total of 16 events were observed, 4 of which were analyzed in detail. The transport time for these 16 events varied from 4.5 to 7 days, while the transport altitudes over the ocean ranged from 2-8 km, but were typically less than 3 km. In three of the case studies, eastward advection and transport in a weak warm conveyor belt (WCB) airflow was responsible for the export of North American emissions into the FT, while transport in the FT was governed by easterly winds driven by the Azores/Bermuda High (ABH) and transient northerly lows. In the fourth case study, North American emissions were lofted to 6-8 km in a WCB before being entrained in the same cyclone's dry airstream and transported down to the observatory. The results of this study show that the lower marine FT may provide an important transport environment where O3 production may continue, in contrast to transport in the marine boundary layer, where O3 destruction is believed to dominate. The second phase of the study presented here focused on improving the analysis methods that are available with LPDMs. While LPDMs are popular and useful for the analysis of atmospheric trace gas measurements, identifying the transport pathway of emissions from their source to a receptor (the Pico Mountain observatory in our case) using the standard gridded model output, particularly during complex meteorological scenarios can be difficult can be difficult or impossible. The transport study in phase 1 was limited to only 1 month out of more than 3 years of available data and included only 4 case studies out of the 16 events specifically due to this confounding factor. The second phase of this study addressed this difficulty by presenting a method to clearly and easily identify the pathway taken by only those emissions that arrive at a receptor at a particular time, by combining the standard gridded output from forward (i.e., concentrations) and backward (i.e., residence time) LPDM simulations, greatly simplifying similar analyses. The ability of the method to successfully determine the source-to-receptor pathway, restoring this Lagrangian information that is lost when the data are gridded, is proven by comparing the pathway determined from this method with the particle trajectories from both the forward and backward models. A sample analysis is also presented, demonstrating that this method is more accurate and easier to use than existing methods using standard LPDM products. Finally, we discuss potential future work that would be possible by combining the backward LPDM simulation with gridded data from other sources (e.g., chemical transport models) to obtain a Lagrangian sampling of the air that will eventually arrive at a receptor.

Raise the Minimum Wage

A Montana Public Radio Commentary by Evan Barrett. Published newspaper columns written by Evan Barrett on this topic, which vary somewhat in content from this commentary, appeared in the following publications: Montana Standard, November 25, 2013 Missoulian, November, 28, 2013