Hot vs. cold: Sequential responses and preference stability in experimental games

In experiments with two-person sequential games we analyzewhether responses to favorable and unfavorable actions dependon the elicitation procedure. In our hot treatment thesecond player responds to the first player s observed actionwhile in our cold treatment we follow the strategy method and have the second player decide on a contingent action foreach and every possible first player move, without firstobserving this move. Our analysis centers on the degree towhich subjects deviate from the maximization of their pecuniaryrewards, as a response to others actions. Our results show nodifference in behavior between the two treatments. We also findevidence of the stability of subjects preferences with respectto their behavior over time and to the consistency of theirchoices as first and second mover.

Regional cortical volumes and congenital heart disease: a MRI study in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.

Children with congenital heart disease (CHD) who survive surgery often present impaired neurodevelopment and qualitative brain anomalies. However, the impact of CHD on total or regional brain volumes only received little attention. We address this question in a sample of patients with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS), a neurogenetic condition frequently associated with CHD. Sixty-one children, adolescents, and young adults with confirmed 22q11.2 deletion were included, as well as 80 healthy participants matched for age and gender. Subsequent subdivision of the patients group according to CHD yielded a subgroup of 27 patients with normal cardiac status and a subgroup of 26 patients who underwent cardiac surgery during their first years of life (eight patients with unclear status were excluded). Regional cortical volumes were extracted using an automated method and the association between regional cortical volumes, and CHD was examined within a three-condition fixed factor. Robust protection against type I error used Bonferroni correction. Smaller total cerebral volumes were observed in patients with CHD compared to both patients without CHD and controls. The pattern of bilateral regional reductions associated with CHD encompassed the superior parietal region, the precuneus, the fusiform gyrus, and the anterior cingulate cortex. Within patients, a significant reduction in the left parahippocampal, the right middle temporal, and the left superior frontal gyri was associated with CHD. The present results of global and regional volumetric reductions suggest a role for disturbed hemodynamic in the pathophysiology of brain alterations in patients with neurodevelopmental disease and cardiac malformations.

A randomized concave programming method for choice network revenue management

Models incorporating more realistic models of customer behavior, as customers choosing froman offer set, have recently become popular in assortment optimization and revenue management.The dynamic program for these models is intractable and approximated by a deterministiclinear program called the CDLP which has an exponential number of columns. However, whenthe segment consideration sets overlap, the CDLP is difficult to solve. Column generationhas been proposed but finding an entering column has been shown to be NP-hard. In thispaper we propose a new approach called SDCP to solving CDLP based on segments and theirconsideration sets. SDCP is a relaxation of CDLP and hence forms a looser upper bound onthe dynamic program but coincides with CDLP for the case of non-overlapping segments. Ifthe number of elements in a consideration set for a segment is not very large (SDCP) can beapplied to any discrete-choice model of consumer behavior. We tighten the SDCP bound by(i) simulations, called the randomized concave programming (RCP) method, and (ii) by addingcuts to a recent compact formulation of the problem for a latent multinomial-choice model ofdemand (SBLP+). This latter approach turns out to be very effective, essentially obtainingCDLP value, and excellent revenue performance in simulations, even for overlapping segments.By formulating the problem as a separation problem, we give insight into why CDLP is easyfor the MNL with non-overlapping considerations sets and why generalizations of MNL posedifficulties. We perform numerical simulations to determine the revenue performance of all themethods on reference data sets in the literature.

Equivalence of piecewise-linear approximation and Lagrangian relaxation for network revenue management

The network revenue management (RM) problem arises in airline, hotel, media,and other industries where the sale products use multiple resources. It can be formulatedas a stochastic dynamic program but the dynamic program is computationallyintractable because of an exponentially large state space, and a number of heuristicshave been proposed to approximate it. Notable amongst these -both for their revenueperformance, as well as their theoretically sound basis- are approximate dynamic programmingmethods that approximate the value function by basis functions (both affinefunctions as well as piecewise-linear functions have been proposed for network RM)and decomposition methods that relax the constraints of the dynamic program to solvesimpler dynamic programs (such as the Lagrangian relaxation methods). In this paperwe show that these two seemingly distinct approaches coincide for the network RMdynamic program, i.e., the piecewise-linear approximation method and the Lagrangianrelaxation method are one and the same.

Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE): explanation and elaboration.

Much medical research is observational. The reporting of observational studies is often of insufficient quality. Poor reporting hampers the assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of a study and the generalisability of its results. Taking into account empirical evidence and theoretical considerations, a group of methodologists, researchers, and editors developed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) recommendations to improve the quality of reporting of observational studies. The STROBE Statement consists of a checklist of 22 items, which relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results and discussion sections of articles. Eighteen items are common to cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies and four are specific to each of the three study designs. The STROBE Statement provides guidance to authors about how to improve the reporting of observational studies and facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of studies by reviewers, journal editors and readers. This explanatory and elaboration document is intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the STROBE Statement. The meaning and rationale for each checklist item are presented. For each item, one or several published examples and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature are provided. Examples of useful flow diagrams are also included. The STROBE Statement, this document, and the associated Web site (http://www.strobe-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of observational research.

A pseudo-spectral method for the simulation of poro-elastic seismic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates using domain decomposition

We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates. An important application of this method and its extensions will be the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh, which can be arbitrarily heterogeneous, consisting of two or more concentric rings representing the fluid in the center and the surrounding porous medium. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction and a Fourier expansion in the azimuthal direction and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method is used to match the fluid-solid boundary conditions based on the method of characteristics. This multi-domain approach allows for significant reductions of the number of grid points in the azimuthal direction for the inner grid domain and thus for corresponding increases of the time step and enhancements of computational efficiency. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been rigorously tested and verified through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently bench-marked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. Finally, the proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is adequately handled.

Calceology : an introduction to North Western European archaeological leather footwear (Neolithic period to c. AD 1600)

Calceology is the study of recovered archaeological leather footwear and is comprised of conservation, documentation and identification of leather shoe components and shoe styles. Recovered leather shoes are complex artefacts that present technical, stylistic and personal information about the culture and people that used them. The current method in calceological research for typology and chronology is by comparison with parallel examples, though its use poses problems by an absence of basic definitions and the lack of a taxonomic hierarchy. The research findings of the primary cutting patterns, used for making all leather footwear, are integrated with the named style method and the Goubitz notation, resulting in a combined methodology as a basis for typological organisation for recovered footwear and a chronology for named shoe styles. The history of calceological research is examined in chapter two and is accompanied by a review of methodological problems as seen in the literature. Through the examination of various documentation and research techniques used during the history of calceological studies, the reasons why a standard typology and methodology failed to develop are investigated. The variety and continual invention of a new research method for each publication of a recovered leather assemblage hindered the development of a single standard methodology. Chapter three covers the initial research with the database through which the primary cutting patterns were identified and the named styles were defined. The chronological span of each named style was established through iterative cross-site sedation and named style comparisons. The technical interpretation of the primary cutting patterns' consistent use is due to constraints imposed by the leather and the forms needed to cover the foot. Basic parts of the shoe patterns and the foot are defined, plus terms provided for identifying the key points for pattern making. Chapter four presents the seventeen primary cutting patterns and their sub-types, these are divided into three main groups: six integral soled patterns, four hybrid soled patterns and seven separately soled patterns. Descriptions of the letter codes, pattern layout, construction principle, closing seam placement and list of sub-types are included in the descriptions of each primary cutting pattern. The named shoe styles and their relative chronology are presented in chapter five. Nomenclature for the named styles is based on the find location of the first published example plus the primary cutting pattern code letter. The named styles are presented in chronological order from Prehistory through to the late 16th century. Short descriptions of the named styles are given and illustrated with examples of recovered archaeological leather footwear, reconstructions of archaeological shoes and iconographical sources. Chapter six presents documentation of recovered archaeological leather using the Goubitz notation, an inventory and description of style elements and fastening methods used for defining named shoe styles, technical information about sole/upper constructions and the consequences created by the use of lasts and sewing forms for style identification and fastening placement in relation to the instep point. The chapter concludes with further technical information about the implications for researchers about shoemaking, pattern making and reconstructive archaeology. The conclusion restates the original research question of why a group of primary cutting patterns appear to have been used consistently throughout the European archaeological record. The quantitative and qualitative results from the database show the use of these patterns but it is the properties of the leather that imposes the use of the primary cutting patterns. The combined methodology of primary pattern identification, named style and artefact registration provides a framework for calceological research.

Generalized canonical correlation analysis of matrices with different row and column orders

A Method is offered that makes it possible to apply generalized canonicalcorrelations analysis (CANCOR) to two or more matrices of different row and column order. The new method optimizes the generalized canonical correlationanalysis objective by considering only the observed values. This is achieved byemploying selection matrices. We present and discuss fit measures to assessthe quality of the solutions. In a simulation study we assess the performance of our new method and compare it to an existing procedure called GENCOM,proposed by Green and Carroll. We find that our new method outperforms the GENCOM algorithm both with respect to model fit and recovery of the truestructure. Moreover, as our new method does not require any type of iteration itis easier to implement and requires less computation. We illustrate the methodby means of an example concerning the relative positions of the political parties inthe Netherlands based on provincial data.

Shorter time to diagnosis and improved stage at presentation in Swiss patients with retinoblastoma treated from 1963 to 2004

Rapport de synthèse : Le rétinoblastome est la tumeur de l'oeil la plus fréquente chez l'enfant. Un diagnostic précoce est important pour sauver le globe oculaire et la survie du patient. Le but de notre étude est de déterminer l'évolution de l'intervalle diagnostique, c'est-à-dire le délai entre les premiers symptômes et la date du diagnostic officiel du rétinoblastome, sur une période de 40 ans en Suisse. Matériel et méthode : Il s'agit d'une étude rétrospective faite sur 139 patients suisses traités pour rétinoblastome durant trois différentes périodes : (1) 1963-1983 ; (2) 1984-1993 ; et (3) 1994-2004. On compare certaines caractéristiques : le sexe du patient, la latéralité de la maladie, les premiers symptômes, leurs observateurs, l'intervalle diagnostique, l'âge au diagnostic, le stade de la maladie, l'histoire familiale. Résultats : 37 patients (26.6%) ont été traités dans la première période ; 44 (31.7%) dans la période 2 et 58 (41.7%) dans la période 3. L'intervalle diagnostique diminue de façon significative de 6.97 mois dans la période 1 à 3.58 dans la période 2 à 2.25 dans la période 3 pour le total des malades. Ceci reste significatif pour les rétinoblastomes unilatéraux. De plus, dans ce même groupe, on observe une diminution significative des stades avancés de la maladie, groupe E selon Murphree (61.5% dans la période 1 ; 46.7% dans la période 2 et 22.2 % dans la période 3). Lorsque la maladie est bilatérale, les mêmes observations se font de façon un peu moins marquée. Il n'y a aucun patient diagnostiqué au stade E de la maladie en présence d'une anamnèse familiale positive. Leucocorie (48.2%) et strabisme (20.1 %) sont les symptômes les plus fréquents durant les 3 périodes. Les seuls facteurs qui influencent significativement le risque d'avoir un stade E de la maladie sont la durée de l'intervalle diagnostic et la période de diagnostic. Conclusion : On constate un progrès dans le diagnostic du rétinoblastome en Suisse, surtout lors de maladie unilatérale. De même, des améliorations sont notées dans la maladie bilatérale mais de façon non significative. Il est donc important de mieux enseigner aux médecins à reconnaître les symptômes oculaires de la maladie et à référer les patients plus tôt aux spécialistes. Abstract : OBECTIVES : Retinoblastoma is the most frequent intraocular malignancy in children. Early diagnosis is essential for globe salvage and patient survival. The aim of our study was to determine how time to diagnosis of retinoblastoma has evolved over a 40-year period in Switzerland. METHOD AND PATIENTS : A retrospective study of 139 Swiss patients with retinoblastoma was performed comparing 3 periods: (1) 1963-1983; (2) 1984-1993; and (3) 1994-2004. Factors taken into account were gender, laterality of retínoblastoma, age at first symptoms, type and first observer of symptoms, time to diagnosis, age at diagnosis, disease stage, and family history. RESULTS : Thirty-seven patients (26.6%) were treated in period 1, 44 (31.7%) in period 2, and S8 (41.7%) in period 3.Overall, the diagnostic interval decreased in a significant way from 6.97 months in period 1 to 3.58 in period 2 and to 2.25 in period 3. When looking separately at unilateral and bilateral disease, the decrease oí the diagnostic interval remained statistically significant in unilateral retinoblastoma; there was also a significant reduction in the number of patients with advanced group E disease (Murphree classification) (61.5% in period 1, 46.7% in period 2, 22.2% in period 3). In bilateral disease, the same observations were made to a lesser extent. However, there were no cases with group E disease in 10 patients with positive family history. Leukornria (48.2%) and strabismus (20.1 %) were the 2 most frequent symptoms throughout the 3 periods. The only factors that statistically influenced the chances of having a diagnosis of group E disease were the diagnostic interval and period of diagnosis. Conclusion : Progress has been made in the diagnosis of retinoblastoma in Switzerland, notably in unilateral disease. Improvement to a lesser extent has also been observed in bilateral cases but without statistical significance. Greater effort is needed to teach physians-in-training to recognize the importance of ocular symptoms and refer patients earlier.

Self-paced Movement Intention Detection from Human Brain Signals: Invasive and Non-invasive EEG

Neural signatures of humans' movement intention can be exploited by future neuroprosthesis. We propose a method for detecting self-paced upper limb movement intention from brain signals acquired with both invasive and noninvasive methods. In the first study with scalp electroencephalograph (EEG) signals from healthy controls, we report single trial detection of movement intention using movement related potentials (MRPs) in a frequency range between 0.1 to 1 Hz. Movement intention can be detected above chance level (p<0.05) on average 460 ms before the movement onset with low detection rate during the on-movement intention period. Using intracranial EEG (iEEG) from one epileptic subject, we detect movement intention as early as 1500 ms before movement onset with accuracy above 90% using electrodes implanted in the bilateral supplementary motor area (SMA). The coherent results obtained with non-invasive and invasive method and its generalization capabilities across different days of recording, strengthened the theory that self-paced movement intention can be detected before movement initiation for the advancement in robot-assisted neurorehabilitation.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Paediatric oral peanut challenges: a comparison of practice in London and Western Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: There are guidelines on how to develop a food challenge protocol, but at present there is no gold standard guidance on method, and separate units produce differing protocols. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 200 patients' data from the paediatric allergy units in Lausanne and Geneva, Western Switzerland, and St Thomas' Hospital (STH), UK. RESULTS: St Thomas' Hospital has a younger cohort with a lower overall mean spIgE (2.36 kU/l vs 8.00 kU/l, P = 0.004). The target peanut protein volumes differed: Switzerland 4.4 g vs STH 8.4 g. Despite this, the dose actually achieved in positive challenges was not significantly different (2.33 g vs 1.49 g, P = 0.16). 26% of challenges reacted at 4 g or more of peanut protein. CONCLUSIONS: The differences in results highlight how the variation in reasoning behind food challenge alters the outcome. Standardization of food challenges would allow easy comparison between hospitals and geographical areas for research purposes.

Minimum requirements for application of ink dating methods based on solvent analysis in casework

Several ink dating methods based on solvents analysis using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) were proposed in the last decades. These methods follow the drying of solvents from ballpoint pen inks on paper and seem very promising. However, several questions arose over the last few years among questioned documents examiners regarding the transparency and reproducibility of the proposed techniques. These questions should be carefully studied for accurate and ethical application of this methodology in casework. Inspired by a real investigation involving ink dating, the present paper discusses this particular issue throughout four main topics: aging processes, dating methods, validation procedures and data interpretation. This work presents a wide picture of the ink dating field, warns about potential shortcomings and also proposes some solutions to avoid reporting errors in court.

Runoff measurement and prediction for a watershed under natural vegetation in central Brazil

This work aimed to measure and analyze total rainfall (P), rainfall intensity and five-day antecedent rainfall effects on runoff (R); to compare measured and simulated R values using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (CN) for each rainfall event; and to establish average R/P ratios for observed R values. A one-year (07/01/96 to 06/30/97) rainfall-runoff data study was carried out in the Capetinga watershed (962.4 ha), located at the Federal District of Brazil, 47° 52' longitude West and 15° 52' latitude South. Soils of the watershed were predominantly covered by natural vegetation. Total rainfall and runoff for the period were 1,744 and 52.5 mm, respectively, providing R/P of 3% and suggesting that watershed physical characteristics favored water infiltration into the soil. A multivariate regression analysis for 31 main rainfall-runoff events totaling 781.9 and 51.0 mm, respectively, indicated that the amount of runoff was only dependent upon rainfall volume. Simulated values of total runoff were underestimated about 15% when using CN method and an area-weighted average of the CN based on published values. On the other hand, when average values of CN were calculated for the watershed, total runoff was overestimated about 39%, suggesting that CN method shoud be used with care in areas under natural vegetation.

Rate and processes of river network rearrangement during incipient faulting: The case of the Cahabon river, Guatemala

Deeply incised river networks are generally regarded as robust features that are not easily modified by erosion or tectonics. Although the reorganization of deeply incised drainage systems has been documented, the corresponding importance with regard to the overall landscape evolution of mountain ranges and the factors that permit such reorganizations are poorly understood. To address this problem, we have explored the rapid drainage reorganization that affected the Cahabon River in Guatemala during the Quaternary. Sediment-provenance analysis, field mapping, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) imaging are used to reconstruct the geometry of the valley before the river was captured. Dating of the abandoned valley sediments by the Be-10-Al-26 burial method and geomagnetic polarity analysis allow us to determine the age of the capture events and then to quantify several processes, such as the rate of tectonic deformation of the paleovalley, the rate of propagation of post-capture drainage reversal, and the rate at which canyons that formed at the capture sites have propagated along the paleovalley. Transtensional faulting started 1 to 3 million years ago, produced ground tilting and ground faulting along the Cahabon River, and thus generated differential uplift rate of 0.3 +/- 0.1 up to 0.7 +/- 0.4 mm . y(-1) along the river's course. The river responded to faulting by incising the areas of relative uplift and depositing a few tens of meters of sediment above the areas of relative subsidence. Then, the river experienced two captures and one avulsion between 700 ky and 100 ky. The captures breached high-standing ridges that separate the Cahabon River from its captors. Captures occurred at specific points where ridges are made permeable by fault damage zones and/or soluble rocks. Groundwater flow from the Cahabon River down to its captors likely increased the erosive power of the captors thus promoting focused erosion of the ridges. Valley-fill formation and capture occurred in close temporal succession, suggesting a genetic link between the two. We suggest that the aquifers accumulated within the valley-fills, increased the head along the subterraneous system connecting the Cahabon River to its captors, and promoted their development. Upon capture, the breached valley experienced widespread drainage reversal toward the capture sites. We attribute the generalized reversal to combined effects of groundwater sapping in the valley-fill, axial drainage obstruction by lateral fans, and tectonic tilting. Drainage reversal increased the size of the captured areas by a factor of 4 to 6. At the capture sites, 500 m deep canyons have been incised into the bedrock and are propagating upstream at a rate of 3 to 11 mm . y(-1) deepening at a rate of 0.7 to 1 5 mm . y(-1). At this rate, 1 to 2 million years will be necessary for headward erosion to completely erase the topographic expression of the paleovalley. It is concluded that the rapid reorganization of this drainage system was made possible by the way the river adjusted to the new tectonic strain field, which involved transient sedimentation along the river's course. If the river had escaped its early reorganization and had been given the time necessary to reach a new dynamic equilibrium, then the transient conditions that promoted capture would have vanished and its vulnerability to capture would have been strongly reduced.