Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Undergraduate Scholarship at Winthrop University 2012 Book of Abstracts

Winthrop University proudly presents the first Undergraduate Scholarship at Winthrop University Book of Abstracts. Building off the nine-year tradition of producing abstract books for students in the College of Arts and Sciences, University College is now creating this book to present the scholarship occurring throughout all five academic colleges in the university: College of Arts and Sciences (CAS), College of Business Administration (CBA), College of Education (COE), the College of Visual and Performing Arts (CVPA) and University College (UC). In addition to the research abstracts, we are using the book to document the students who have completed Honors Theses, applied for Nationally Competitive Awards, and were selected as McNair Scholars.