Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Study of Iowa's Current Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) and Future Road Maintenance and Construction Needs, 2006

The 81st General Assembly of the Iowa Legislature, in Section 85 of House File 868, required the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) to conduct a study of current Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF)revenues, and projected roadway construction and maintenance needs.

Health and (other) Asset Holdings

The empirical literature on the asset allocation and medical expenditures of U.S. households consistently shows that risky portfolio shares are increasing in both wealth and health whereas health investment shares are decreasing in these same variables. Despite this evidence, most of the existing models treat financial and health-related choices separately. This paper bridges this gap by proposing a tractable framework for the joint determination of optimal consumption, portfolio and health investments. We solve for the optimal rules in closed form and show that the model can theoretically reproduce the empirical facts. Capitalizing on this closed-form solution, we perform a structural estimation of the model on HRS data. Our parameter estimates are reasonable and confirm the relevance of all the main characteristics of the model.

Study of Iowa’s Current Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) and Future Road Maintenance and Construction Needs, 2006

The 81st General Assembly of the Iowa legislature, in Section 85 of House File 868, required the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) to conduct a study of current Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF) revenues, and projected roadway construction and maintenance needs. With input from Iowa’s cities, counties and other interested groups, the Iowa DOT completed this report for submittal to the legislature.

Study of Iowa’s Current Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) and Future Road Maintenance and Construction Needs, 2006

The 81st General Assembly of the Iowa legislature, in Section 85 of House File 868, required the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) to conduct a study of current Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF) revenues, and projected roadway construction and maintenance needs.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Hidrossedimentologia e disponibilidade hídrica da bacia hidrográfica da Barragem de Poilão

TEIXEIRA, José João Lopes. Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Centro de Ciências Agrárias da Universidade Federal do Ceará, Agosto de 2011. Hidrossedimentologia e disponibilidade hídrica da bacia hidrográfica da Barragem de Poilão, Cabo Verde. Orientador: José Carlos de Araújo. Examinadores: George Leite Mamede, Pedro Henrique Augusto Medeiros. O Arquipélago de Cabo Verde, situado na costa ocidental africana, sofre influência do deserto de Saara tornando o clima caraterizado por pluviometria muito baixa e distribuída irregularmente no espaço e no tempo. As chuvas são muito concentradas, gerando grandes escoamentos para o mar. O aumento da disponibilidade hídrica requer além da construção e manutenção de infraestrutura de captação e conservação de águas pluviais, uma gestão eficiente destes recursos. Atualmente, constitui um dos eixos estratégicos da política do estado de Cabo Verde, a captação, armazenamento e mobilização de águas superficiais através de construção de barragens. Estudos do comportamento hidrológico e sedimentológico do reservatório e da sua bacia de contribuição constituem premissas básicas para um ótimo dimensionamento, gestão e monitoramento da referida infraestrutura. É neste sentido que o presente estudo objetivou sistematizar informações hidrológicas e sedimentológicas da bacia hidrográfica da Barragem de Poilão (BP) e apresentar proposta operacional de longo prazo. A área de estudo ocupa 28 km² a montante da Bacia Hidrográfica da Ribeira Seca (BHRS) na Ilha de Santiago. A altitude da bacia varia de 99 m, situada na cota da barragem, até 1394 m. Para o estudo, foram utilizados e sistematizados, série pluviométrica de 1973 a 2010, registos de vazão instantânea do período 1984 a 2000 e registos agroclimáticos da área de estudo (1981 a 2004). Para o preenchimento das falhas tanto dos escoamentos como da descarga sólida em suspensão, foi utilizado o método de curva chave. Para estimativa de produção de sedimentos na bacia, aplicou-se a Equação Universal de Perda de Solo (USLE) e a razão de aporte de sedimentos (SDR). O índice de retenção de sedimentos no reservatório foi estimado pelo método de Brune e a distribuição de sedimento pelo método empírico de redução de área descrito por Borland e Miller e, revisado por Lara. Para gerar e simular curvas de vazão versus garantia foi utilizado código computacional VYELAS, desenvolvido por Araújo e baseado na abordagem de Campos. Também foi avaliada a redução da vazão de retirada do período 2006 a 2026, provocado pelo assoreamento do reservatório. Concluiu-se que em média a precipitação anual é de 323 mm, concentrando-se 73% nos meses de agosto e setembro; a bacia de contribuição apresenta como valor um número de curva (CN) de 76, com abstração inicial (Ia) de 26 mm, coeficiente de escoamento de 19% e uma vazão anual afluente de 1,7 hm³(cv= 0,73); a disponibilidade hídrica para uma garantia de 85% é avaliada em 0,548 hm³/ano e não 0,671 hm³/ano como indica o projeto original. Com uma descarga sólida estimada em 22.185 m³/ano conclui-se que até o ano de 2026, a capacidade do reservatório reduz a uma taxa de 1,8 % ao ano, devido ao assoreamento, provocando uma redução de 41% da disponibilidade hídrica inicial. Nessa altura, as perdas por evaporação e sangria serão da ordem de 81% da vazão afluente de entrada no reservatório. Na base desses resultados se apresentou proposta de operação da BP.

Lane Closure Policy Development, Enforcement, and Exceptions: A Survey of Seven State Transportation Agencies, February 2007

Traffic volume increases and an aging infrastructure create the need for reconstruction, rehabilitation, and maintenance of existing facilities. As more motorists feel that delays should be minimal during highway renewal projects, lane closures that reduce capacity through the work zone should not create unreasonable delays. In order to facilitate the determination of when a lane closure is permitted during the day, some state transportation agencies (STAs) have developed lane closure policies, or strategies, that they use as guidance in determining daily permitted lane closure times. Permitted lane closure times define what times of the day, week, or season a lane closure is allowed on a facility and at a specific location or segment. This research addresses the lane closure policies of several STAs that were reputed to have good lane closures policies or strategies and that were selected by the project advisory committee for further research.

Iowa Budget Report, Building on our Progress: Protecting our Priorities, 2009

*********** Some files are large and will take time to load. *********** Seven Files: 1)Report Cover, 2)Table of Contents, 3)Statewide Financial Summaries, 4)Department Budgets, 5)Capitol Projects, 6)Associated Financial Documents, 7)Budget Report. To Members of the 82nd General Assembly, As we begin the second year of our Administration, we are pleased to submit the Fiscal Year 2009 budget for the State of Iowa pursuant to Iowa Code Section 8.21 and our constitutional authority. This budget recognizes the progress that we began last year with improvements in education, economic development, energy independence, and health care; provides funding for new policy initiatives in these areas; and is based on fiscally sound budget practices. Building on last year’s accomplishments, our Fiscal Year 2009 General Fund budget proposes an additional $75 million for increasing teachers’ salaries as part of our goal to move Iowa closer to the national average. We lay the foundation for student achievement by recommending $32.1 million for pre-school education, and we also propose $177.5 million in total for community colleges and $726.2 million in total for Regents universities. To make our State more energy independent, our General Fund budget appropriates the second-year funding of $25 million for the new Iowa Power Fund. The newly established Office of Energy Independence will soon start making awards from the Power Fund. Apart from the budget, we will be making several proposals to implement the new State energy plan. We have pledged to expand the number of Iowans who have health-care coverage. As a result, we are recommending additional funding for enrollment growth in the State Children Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). These additional funds will help the State provide coverage for another 25 percent of children who are eligible but not yet enrolled in hawk-i and the Iowa Medicaid Program. To protect the safety of Iowans, we are recommending issuance of revenue bonds for approximately $260 million in net proceeds to build a new state penitentiary in Ft. Madison, renovate and expand the Women’s Correctional Institution at Mitchellville, upgrade kitchen facilities at the Rockwell City and Mt. Pleasant Correctional Institutions, and expand Community-Based Correctional Facilities in Ottumwa, Sioux City, Waterloo, and Des Moines. Additionally, we are including funding for developing a prototype program for providing parolees and low-risk offenders with mental health and drug abuse treatment and educational services to help them make a crime-free re-entry into our communities. As part of this Capitals Budget, we also propose using $20 million for the State’s matching share for building new facilities at the Iowa Veterans Home. Iowa Budget Report iv Fiscal Year 2009 Importantly, our budget continues to fully fund our State’s Reserve Funds to help buffer Iowa from any future economic downturn. We recommend reimbursing $78.2 million to the Property Tax Credit Fund as part of our multi-year proposal to correct bad budgeting practices and eventually restore $160.0 million to this Fund. To provide more transparency, we are transferring operational expenditures in the Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure Fund to the General Fund and expenditures from the Endowment for Healthy Iowans and Healthy Iowans Tobacco Trust Funds to the General Fund. We believe that Iowa has charted a new course of becoming energy independent, providing quality pre-school education, recognizing the importance of our teachers, and providing greater health coverage for children. Our Fiscal Year 2009 budget and policy priorities reflect our continuing faith in Iowa’s ability to be the best state in the nation. We look forward to working with you in a bi-partisan and all-inclusive manner to build on our progress and protect our priorities. Sincerely, Chester J. Culver Governor Patty Judge Lt. Governor

Eosinophilic esophagitis: overview of clinical management.

A validated disease-specific symptom-assessment tool for eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) has yet to be approved by regulatory authorities for use in clinical trials. Relevant end points for daily practice include EoE-related symptoms and esophageal eosinophilic inflammation. Endoscopic features should also be taken into account when establishing a therapy plan. A reasonable clinical goal is to achieve a reduction in EoE-related symptoms and esophageal eosinophilic inflammation. Evidence is increasing to support an anti-inflammatory maintenance therapy, as this can reduce esophageal remodeling. In EoE patients in clinical remission, annual disease monitoring with symptom, endoscopic, and histologic assessments of sustained treatment response is recommended.

Asset pricing implications of benchmarking: A two-factor CAPM

In this paper we consider the equilibrium effects of an institutionalinvestor whose performance is benchmarked to an index. In a partialequilibrium setting, the objective of the institutional investor is modeledas the maximization of expected utility (an increasing and concave function,in order to accommodate risk aversion) of final wealth minus a benchmark.In equilibrium this optimal strategy gives rise to the two-beta CAPM inBrennan (1993): together with the market beta a new risk-factor (that wecall active management risk) is brought into the analysis. This new betais deffined as the normalized (to the benchmark's variance) covariancebetween the asset excess return and the excess return of the market overthe benchmark index. Different to Brennan, the empirical test supports themodel's predictions. The cross-section return on the active management riskis positive and signifficant especially after 1990, when institutionalinvestors have become the representative agent of the market.

Iowa Budget Report Fiscal Year 2010.

Governor Chet Culver and Lt. Governor Patty Judge submitted their $6.2 billion budget for fiscal year 2010. The proposal recommends further budget cuts – rather than tax increases – to help meet the challenges of declining state revenues. “In recent months, we have reduced state government spending by nearly $180 million in order to maintain a balanced budget,” said Governor Culver. "My budget proposal for fiscal year 2010 will reflect a 6.5 percent cut to almost every state department and program,” the Governor continued. “In fact, 207 of the 253 line items in my budget proposal will be cut by 6.5 percent. That represents a savings of $400 million to Iowa taxpayers.”

Performance Report for Fiscal Year, 2007

I am pleased to present the performance report for the Iowa Department for the Blind for fiscal year 2007. This report is provided in compliance with sections 8E.210 and 216B.7 of the Code of Iowa. It contains valuable information about the services the Department and its partners provided for Iowans during the past fiscal year in the areas of Vocational Rehabilitation, Independent Living, Library Services, and Resource Management. The Department determines its competitive success in a number of ways. We look at the federal standards and indicators to learn our ranking in relation to the performance of other public rehabilitation agencies. We compare our library's production and circulation figures with those from previous years to determine trends. We set our own standards for success by looking at such factors as the number of successful case closures, average hourly wage at case closure, skills training provided, and compliance with regulations. Results show that the Department is working positively toward achieving its strategic goals of increasing the independence and productivity of blind Iowans and improving access to information for blind Iowans. Major accomplishments of the year included the selection of our Library as the only agency authorized to distribute educational materials using the National Instructional Materials Accessibility Standard (NIMAS) to students in Iowa. Our Independent Living program received the Shining Star award at the Governor's Conference on Aging for its work with and outreach to older blind Iowans. The Department, the Iowa Braille School, and the Department of Education implemented new cooperative efforts to improve the coordination and delivery of services to blind and visually impaired students in Iowa. Finally, earnings ratios and the percentage of employment for vocational rehabilitation clients of the Department remain among the best in the nation, as measured by the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration, which on June 27, 2007 released data on federal standards and indicators for the year ended September 30, 2006. Overall, we met or exceeded 11 of 16 results targets included in this report. A discussion of the Department's services, customers, organizational structure, and budget appears in the "Department Overview" that follows. The success of the Department's programs is evident in the success achieved by blind Iowans. It is reflected in the many blind persons who can be seen traveling about independently, going to their jobs and to the community and family activities in which they participate. Sincerely, Allen C. Harris Director, Iowa Department for the Blind

Performance Report for Fiscal Year, 2008

I am pleased to present the performance report for the Iowa Department for the Blind for fiscal year 2008. This report is provided in compliance with sections 8E.210 and 216B.7 of the Code of Iowa. It contains valuable information about results achieved because of the services that we and our partners provided to blind and visually impaired Iowans during the past fiscal year in the areas of Vocational Rehabilitation, Independent Living, Library Services, and Resource Management. We determine our competitive success in a number of ways. We look at the federal standards and indicators to learn our ranking in relation to the performance of other public rehabilitation agencies. We compare our library's production and circulation figures with those from previous years to determine trends. We set our own standards for success by looking at such factors as the number of successful case closures, average hourly wage at case closure, skills training provided, and compliance with regulations. Results show that the Department is working positively toward achieving its strategic goals of increasing the independence and productivity of blind Iowans and improving access to information for blind Iowans. Major accomplishments of the year included:  The selection of our Library as one of eight libraries to receive the new digital talking book machines and books in digital media from the National Library Service for the Blind and Physically Handicapped. Priority for distribution of the machines is given to Library patrons who are veterans.  The Department, the Iowa Braille School, and the Department of Education have been promoting the new expanded core curriculum as part of their continued efforts to improve the coordination and delivery of services to blind and visually impaired students in Iowa.  The Department's five-year grant funded Pathfinders mentoring program ended this year. A total of 49 blind youths aged 16-26 were paired with successful blind adult mentors. Assessments of the program clearly showed that participation in the program had a measurable positive effect on the youth involved.  Finally, earnings ratios and the percentage of employment for vocational rehabilitation clients of the Department are among the best in the nation, as measured by the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration's standards and indicators for the year ended September 30, 2007. Overall, we met or exceeded 13 of 18 targets included in this report. A discussion of the Department's services, customers, and organizational structure, and budget appears in the "Department Overview" that follows. Information pertaining to performance results appears in the final section of this document. The success of the Department's programs is evident in the success achieved by blind Iowans. It is reflected in the many blind persons who can be seen traveling about independently, going to their jobs and to the community and family activities in which they participate. Sincerely, Karen A. Keninger, Director Iowa Department for the Blind

Maintenance Service Level Map, October 13, 2006

Maintenance Service Level Map