Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Reconsolidation of the soil surface after tillage discontinuity, with and without cultivation, related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Site-specific regression coefficient values are essential for erosion prediction with empirical models. With the objective to investigate the surface-soilconsolidation factor, Cf, linked to the RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor, PLU, an erosion experiment using simulated rainfall on a 0.075 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, was conducted at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (EEA/UFRGS), in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Firstly, a row-cropped area was excluded from cultivation (March 1995), the existing crop residue removed from the field, and the soil kept clean-tilled the rest of the year (to get a degraded soil condition for the intended purpose of this research). The soil was then conventional-tilled for the last time (except for a standard plot which was kept continuously cleantilled for comparison purposes), in January 1996, and the following treatments were established and evaluated for soil reconsolidation and soil erosion until May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) fresh-tilled soil, continuously in clean-tilled fallow (unit plot); (b) reconsolidating soil without cultivation; and (c) reconsolidating soil with cultivation (a crop sequence of three corn- and two black oats cycles, continuously in no-till, removing the crop residues after each harvest for rainfall application and redistributing them on the site after that). Simulated rainfall was applied with a Swanson's type, rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at 63.5 mm h-1 intensity and 90 min duration, six times during the two-and-half years of experimental period (at the beginning of the study and after each crop harvest, with the soil in the unit plot being retilled before each rainfall test). The soil-surface-consolidation factor, Cf, was calculated by dividing soil loss values from the reconsolidating soil treatments by the average value from the fresh-tilled soil treatment (unit plot). Non-linear regression was used to fit the Cf = e b.t model through the calculated Cf-data, where t is time in days since last tillage. Values for b were -0.0020 for the reconsolidating soil without cultivation and -0.0031 for the one with cultivation, yielding Cf-values equal to 0.16 and 0.06, respectively, after two-and-half years of tillage discontinuation, compared to 1.0 for fresh-tilled soil. These estimated Cf-values correspond, respectively, to soil loss reductions of 84 and 94 %, in relation to soil loss from the fresh-tilled soil, showing that the soil surface reconsolidated intenser with cultivation than without it. Two distinct treatmentinherent soil surface conditions probably influenced the rapid decay-rate of Cf values in this study, but, as a matter of a fact, they were part of the real environmental field conditions. Cf-factor curves presented in this paper are therefore useful for predicting erosion with RUSLE, but their application is restricted to situations where both soil type and particular soil surface condition are similar to the ones investigate in this study.

Surface and subsurface decomposition of a desiccated grass pasture biomass related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Erosion is deleterious because it reduces the soil's productivity capacity for growing crops and causes sedimentation and water pollution problems. Surface and buried crop residue, as well as live and dead plant roots, play an important role in erosion control. An efficient way to assess the effectiveness of such materials in erosion reduction is by means of decomposition constants as used within the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation - RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor - PLU. This was investigated using simulated rainfall on a 0.12 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study area had been covered by native grass pasture for about fifteen years. By the middle of March 1996, the sod was mechanically mowed and the crop residue removed from the field. Late in April 1996, the sod was chemically desiccated with herbicide and, about one month later, the following treatments were established and evaluated for sod biomass decomposition and soil erosion, from June 1996 to May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) and (b) soil without tillage, with surface residue and dead roots; (c) soil without tillage, with dead roots only; (d) soil tilled conventionally every two-and-half months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue; and (e) soil tilled conventionally every six months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue. Simulated rainfall was applied with a rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at an intensity of 63.5 mm h-1 for 90 min, eight to nine times during the experimental period (about every two-and-half months). Surface and subsurface sod biomass amounts were measured before each rainfall test along with the erosion measurements of runoff rate, sediment concentration in runoff, soil loss rate, and total soil loss. Non-linear regression analysis was performed using an exponential and a power model. Surface sod biomass decomposition was better depicted by the exponential model, while subsurface sod biomass was by the power model. Subsurface sod biomass decomposed faster and more than surface sod biomass, with dead roots in untilled soil without residue on the surface decomposing more than dead roots in untilled soil with surface residue. Tillage type and frequency did not appreciably influence subsurface sod biomass decomposition. Soil loss rates increased greatly with both surface sod biomass decomposition and decomposition of subsurface sod biomass in the conventionally tilled soil, but they were minimally affected by subsurface sod biomass decomposition in the untilled soil. Runoff rates were little affected by the studied treatments. Dead roots plus incorporated residues were effective in reducing erosion in the conventionally tilled soil, while consolidation of the soil surface was important in no-till. The residual effect of the turned soil on erosion diminished gradually with time and ceased after two years.

Prediction of the bulking phenomenon in wastewater treatment plants

The control and prediction of wastewater treatment plants poses an important goal: to avoid breaking the environmental balance by always keeping the system in stable operating conditions. It is known that qualitative information — coming from microscopic examinations and subjective remarks — has a deep influence on the activated sludge process. In particular, on the total amount of effluent suspended solids, one of the measures of overall plant performance. The search for an input–output model of this variable and the prediction of sudden increases (bulking episodes) is thus a central concern to ensure the fulfillment of current discharge limitations. Unfortunately, the strong interrelationbetween variables, their heterogeneity and the very high amount of missing information makes the use of traditional techniques difficult, or even impossible. Through the combined use of several methods — rough set theory and artificial neural networks, mainly — reasonable prediction models are found, which also serve to show the different importance of variables and provide insight into the process dynamics

A Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Intradermal vs. Intramuscular Influenza Vaccine in Lung Transplant Recipients

Background: Immunogenicity of standard infl uenza vaccine is suboptimal in lung transplant recipients. Intradermal vaccine may elicit stronger responses due to recruitment of local dendritic cells. We compared the immunogenicity of the infl uenza vaccine administered intradermally (ID) to the standard intramuscular (IM) vaccination. Methods: In this investigator-blinded, two-center, prospective trial, lung transplant patients were randomized to receive intradermal (6ug) or intramuscular (15ug) 2008/9 trivalent inactivated infl uenza vaccine. Immunogenicity was evaluated using a standard hemagglutination inhibition assay (HIA). Response to the vaccine was defi ned as a fourfold increase of the HIA levels for any of the 3 viral strains in the vaccine. Geometric mean titers (GMT) and seroprotection rate (HIA ≥32) were also analyzed. Patients were followed during 6 months for the development of infl uenza or acute rejection. Results: We randomized 84 patients to receive the ID (n=41) vs. IM (n=43) vaccine, respectively. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Median time from transplantation was 3.4 yrs (ID) vs. 3.3 yrs (IM) (p=0.84). Vaccine response to at least one antigen was seen in 6/41 (14.6%) patients in the ID vs. 8/43 (18.6%) in the IM group (p=0.77). In the ID group, GMTs (95% CI) after vaccination were 15.7 (11.1-22.3) for H1N1, 84.0 (52.0-135.7) for H3N2, and 14.5 (9.6-21.8) for B strains vs. in the IM group 17.5 (11.8-25.9) for H1N1, 108.9 (77.5-153.2) for H3N2, and 20.2 (12.8-31.9) for B (p=NS, all 3 strains). Seroprotection was 39% (H1N1), 82.9% (H3N2) and 29.3% (B strain) in the ID group vs. 27.9% (H1N1), 97.7% (H3N2) and 58.1% (B strain) in the IM group. No factors associated with vaccine response were identifi ed. Mild adverse events were seen in 44% of patients (ID) vs. 34% (IM) (p=0.38). Two patients (4.8%) in the ID group developed infl uenza infection compared to none in the IM group. Two patients in each group developed biopsy-proven acute rejection during follow-up. Conclusions: Immunogenicity of the 2008/09 infl uenza vaccine was poor in lung transplant recipients. ID administration of the vaccine elicited similar immune responses to standard IM vaccination. Novel strategies of vaccination are needed to protect lung transplant recipients from infl uenza.

Risk factors for survival after lung metastasectomy in colorectal cancer patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Resection of lung metastases (LM) from colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasingly performed with a curative intent. It is currently not possible to identify those CRC patients who may benefit the most from this surgical strategy. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review of risk factors for survival after lung metastasectomy for CRC. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of series published between 2000 and 2011, which focused on surgical management of LM from CRC and included more than 40 patients each. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) were calculated by using random effects model for parameters considered as potential prognostic factors. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies including a total of 2925 patients were considered in this analysis. Four parameters were associated with poor survival: (1) a short disease-free interval between primary tumor resection and development of LM (HR 1.59, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.27-1.98); (2) multiple LM (HR 2.04, 95 % CI 1.72-2.41); (3) positive hilar and/or mediastinal lymph nodes (HR 1.65, 95 % CI 1.35-2.02); and (4) elevated prethoracotomy carcinoembryonic antigen (HR 1.91, 95 % CI 1.57-2.32). By comparison, a history of resected liver metastases (HR 1.22, 95 % CI 0.91-1.64) did not achieve statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical variables associated with prolonged survival after surgery for LM in CRC patients include prolonged disease-free interval between primary tumor and metastatic spread, normal prethoracotomy carcinoembryonic antigen, absence of thoracic node involvement, and a single pulmonary lesion.

Impact of bedside open lung biopsies on the management of mechanically ventilated immunocompromised patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome of unknown etiology.

BACKGROUND: Open lung biopsy (OLB) is helpful in the management of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) of unknown etiology. We determine the impact of surgical lung biopsies performed at the bedside on the management of patients with ARDS. METHODS: We reviewed all consecutive cases of patients with ARDS who underwent a surgical OLB at the bedside in a medical intensive care unit between 1993 and 2005. RESULTS: Biopsies were performed in 19 patients mechanically ventilated for ARDS of unknown etiology despite extensive diagnostic process and empirical therapeutic trials. Among them, 17 (89%) were immunocompromised and 10 patients experienced hematological malignancies. Surgical biopsies were obtained after a median (25%-75%) mechanical ventilation of 5 (2-11) days; mean (+/-SD) Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio was 119.3 (+/-34.2) mm Hg. Histologic diagnoses were obtained in all cases and were specific in 13 patients (68%), including 9 (47%) not previously suspected. Immediate complications (26%) were local (pneumothorax, minimal bleeding) without general or respiratory consequences. The biopsy resulted in major changes in management in 17 patients (89%). It contributed to a decision to limit care in 12 of 17 patients who died. CONCLUSION: Our data confirm that surgical OLB may have an important impact on the management of patients with ARDS of unknown etiology after extensive diagnostic process. The procedure can be performed at the bedside, is safe, and has a high diagnostic yield leading to major changes in management, including withdrawal of vital support, in the majority of patients.

Uncertainty Quantification with Support Vector Regression Prediction Models

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

Lung cancer in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: role of smoking, immunodeficiency and pulmonary infection.

BACKGROUND: Immunodeficiency and AIDS-related pulmonary infections have been suggested as independent causes of lung cancer among HIV-infected persons, in addition to smoking. METHODS: A total of 68 lung cancers were identified in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) or through linkage with Swiss Cancer Registries (1985-2010), and were individually matched to 337 controls by centre, gender, HIV-transmission category, age and calendar period. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 96.2% of lung cancers and 72.9% of controls were ever smokers, confirming the high prevalence of smoking and its strong association with lung cancer (OR for current vs never=14.4, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 3.36-62.1). No significant associations were observed between CD4+ cell count and lung cancer, neither when measured within 1 year (OR for <200 vs ≥500=1.21, 95% CI: 0.49-2.96) nor further back in time, before lung cancer diagnosis. Combined antiretroviral therapy was not significantly associated with lung cancer (OR for ever vs never=0.67, 95% CI: 0.29-1.52), and nor was a history of AIDS with (OR=0.49, 95% CI: 0.19-1.28) or without (OR=0.53, 95% CI: 0.24-1.18) pulmonary involvement. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer in the SHCS does not seem to be clearly associated with immunodeficiency or AIDS-related pulmonary disease, but seems to be attributable to heavy smoking.

Challenges in lung transplantation.

Lung transplantation is an established therapy for end-stage pulmonary disorders in selected patients without significant comorbidities. The particular constraints associated with organ transplantation from deceased donors involve specific allocation rules in order to optimise the medical efficacy of the procedure. Comparison of different policies adopted by national transplant agencies reveals that an optimal and unique allocation system is an elusive goal, and that practical, geographical and logistic parameters must be taken into account. A solution to attenuate the imbalance between the number of lung transplant candidates and the limited availability of organs is to consider marginal donors. In particular, assessment and restoration of gas exchange capacity ex vivo in explanted lungs is a new and promising approach that some lung transplant programmes have started to apply in clinical practice. Chronic lung allograft dysfunction, and especially bronchiolitis obliterans, remains the major medium- and long-term problem in lung transplantation with a major impact on survival. Although there is to date no cure for established bronchiolitis obliterans, new preventive strategies have the potential to limit the burden of this feared complication. Unfortunately, randomised prospective studies are infrequent in the field of lung transplantation, and data obtained from larger studies involving kidney or liver recipients are not always relevant for this purpose.

Exaggerated exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension causes lung water accumulation and right ventricular dysfunction in patients with chronic mountain sickness

Background: Chronic mountain sickness (CMS) is characterized by exaggerated exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension. Evidences suggests that exercise may cause lung fluid accumulation at high altitude. We hypothesized that, in patients with CMS, exercise causes lung fluid accumulation.Methods: In 21 male CMS patients and 20 matched healthy controls born and permanently living in La Paz (Bolivia, 3600m) we assessed with echocardiogram, pulmonary artery pressure (PASP), right and left ventricular function and ultrasoundlung comets (ULCs, a marker of lung fluid accumulation) at rest and during mild bicycle exercise (10 min at 50W).Results: CMS patients presented a more than 2-fold greater exercise-induced increase in pulmonary artery pressure than controls (17.1±8.3 vs 7.2±7.9 mmHg, P=0.003). This exaggerated PASP response to exercise was associated with a roughly 3-fold greater increase in UCLs in patients with CMS than in controls (6.3±5.1 vs. 2.1±5.3, p<0.05), and there existed a significant relationship between PASP and UCLs (r=0.44, p<0.001). Finally, TDI on lateral tricuspid annulus decreased during exercise in patients with CMS (from 13.2±3.2 to 11.5±2.1 cm s-1, p=0.03), but increased in controls (from 13.1±2.9 to 14.9±2.6 cm s-1 , p=0.04). Left ventricular function remained unaltered in the 2 groups.Conclusions: we provide the first direct evidence in CMS patients that exaggerated exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension causes rapid lung fluid accumulation and right ventricular dysfunction. We speculate that in patients with CMS these two phenomena contribute to reduced exercise performances and Figure 1 increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality that characterise these subjects.

The prediction of speed and incline in outdoor running in humans using accelerometry.

PURPOSE: To explore whether triaxial accelerometric measurements can be utilized to accurately assess speed and incline of running in free-living conditions. METHODS: Body accelerations during running were recorded at the lower back and at the heel by a portable data logger in 20 human subjects, 10 men, and 10 women. After parameterizing body accelerations, two neural networks were designed to recognize each running pattern and calculate speed and incline. Each subject ran 18 times on outdoor roads at various speeds and inclines; 12 runs were used to calibrate the neural networks whereas the 6 other runs were used to validate the model. RESULTS: A small difference between the estimated and the actual values was observed: the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) was 0.12 m x s(-1) for speed and 0.014 radiant (rad) (or 1.4% in absolute value) for incline. Multiple regression analysis allowed accurate prediction of speed (RMSE = 0.14 m x s(-1)) but not of incline (RMSE = 0.026 rad or 2.6% slope). CONCLUSION: Triaxial accelerometric measurements allows an accurate estimation of speed of running and incline of terrain (the latter with more uncertainty). This will permit the validation of the energetic results generated on the treadmill as applied to more physiological unconstrained running conditions.