Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Analysis of temporary traffic control cost items in transportation construction bidding process

Temporary Traffic Control Plans (TCP’s), which provide construction phasing to maintain traffic during construction operations, are integral component of highway construction project design. Using the initial design, designers develop estimated quantities for the required TCP devices that become the basis for bids submitted by highway contractors. However, actual as-built quantities are often significantly different from the engineer’s original estimate. The total cost of TCP phasing on highway construction projects amounts to 6–10% of the total construction cost. Variations between engineer estimated quantities and final quantities contribute to reduced cost control, increased chances of cost related litigations, and bid rankings and selection. Statistical analyses of over 2000 highway construction projects were performed to determine the sources of variation, which later were used as the basis of development for an automated-hybrid prediction model that uses multiple regressions and heuristic rules to provide accurate TCP quantities and costs. The predictive accuracy of the model developed was demonstrated through several case studies.

Tandem B1 SINE retro-elements may provide a basis for natural antisense transcription in the Magi1 locus of the mouse (Mus musculus)

Transposable elements, which are DNA sequences that can move between different sites in genomes, comprise approximately 40% of the genome of mammals and are emerging as important contributors to biological diversity. Here we report a transcription unit lying within intron 1 of the murine Magi1 (membrane associated guanylate kinase inverted 1) gene that codes for a cell-cell junction scaffolding protein. The transcription unit, termed Magi1OS (Magi1 Opposite Strand), originates from a region with tandem B1 short interspersed nuclear elements (SINEs) and is an antisense gene to Magi1. Mag1OS transcription initiates in a proximal B1 element that shows only 4% divergence from the consensus sequence, indicating that it has been recently inserted into the mouse genome and could be replication competent. Moreover, a chimaeric transcript may result from intra-chromosomal interaction and trans-splicing of the Magi1 antisense transcript (Magi1OS) and Ghrl, which codes for the multifunctional peptide hormone ghrelin. These two genes are 20 megabases apart on chromosome 6 and are transcribed in opposite directions. We propose that the Magi1OS locus may serve as a useful model system to study exaptation and retrotransposition of B1 SINEs, as well as to examine the mechanisms of intra-chromosomal trans-splicing.

Ghrelin and the brain-gut axis as a pharmacological target for appetite control

Appetite regulation is highly complex and involves a large number of orexigenic and anorexigenic peptide hormones. These are small, processed, secreted peptides derived from larger prepropeptide precursors. These peptides are important targets for the development of therapeutics for obesity, a global health epidemic. As a case study, we consider the ghrelin axis. The ghrelin axis is likely to be a particularly useful drug target, as it also plays a role in energy homeostasis, adipogenesis, insulin regulation and reward associated with food intake. Ghrelin is the only known circulating gut orexigenic peptide hormone. As it appears to play a role in diet-induced obesity, blocking the action of ghrelin is likely to be effective for treating and preventing obesity. The ghrelin peptide has been targeted using a number of approaches, with ghrelin mirror-image oligonucleotides (Spiegelmers) and immunotherapy showing some promise. The ghrelin receptor, the growth hormone secretagogue receptor, may also provide a useful target and a number of antagonists and inverse agonists have been developed. A particularly promising new target is the enzyme which octanoylates ghrelin, ghrelin O-acyltransferase (GOAT), and drugs that inhibit GOAT are likely to circumvent pharmacological issues associated with approaches that directly target ghrelin or its receptor.

Increased generation of platelet-derived microparticles following percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty

Platelet-derived microparticles (PMPs) which are produced during platelet activation contribute to coagulation1 and bind to traumatized endothelium in an animal model2. Such endothelial injury occurs during percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), a procedure which restores the diameter of occluded coronary arteries using balloon inflations. However, re-occlusions subsequently develop in 20-25% of patients3, although this is limited by treatment with anti-platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor drugs such as abciximab4. However, abciximab only partially decreases the need for revascularisation5, and therefore other mechanisms appear to be involved. As platelet activation occurs during PTCA, it is likely that PMPs may be produced and contribute to restenosis. This study population consisted of 113 PTCA patients, of whom 38 received abciximab. Paired peripheral arterial blood samples were obtained from the PTCA sheath: 1) following heparinisation (baseline); and 2) subsequent to all vessel manipulation (post-PTCA). Blood was prepared with an anti-CD61 (glycoprotein IIIa) fluorescence conjugated antibody to identify PMPs using flow cytometry, and PMP results expressed as a percentage of all CD61 events. The level of PMPs increased significantly from baseline following PTCA in the without abciximab group (paired t test, P=0.019). However, there was no significant change in the level of PMPs following PTCA in patients who received abciximab. Baseline clinical characteristics between patient groups were similar, although patients administered abciximab had more complex PTCA procedures, such as increased balloon inflation pressures (ANOVA, P=0.0219). In this study, we have clearly demonstrated that the level of CD61-positive PMPs increased during PTCA. This trend has been demonstrated previously, although a low sample size prevented statistical significance being attained6. The results of our work also demonstrate that there was no increase in PMPs after PTCA with abiciximab treatment. The increased PMPs may adhere to traumatized endothelium, contributing to re-occlusion of the arteries, but this remains to be determined. References: (1) Holme PA, Brosstad F, Solum NO. Blood Coagulation and Fibrinolysis. 1995;6:302-310. (2) Merten M, Pakala R, Thiagarajan P, Benedict CR. Circulation. 1999;99:2577-2582. (3) Califf RM. American Heart Journal.1995;130:680-684. (4) Coller BS, Scudder LE. Blood. 1985;66:1456-1459. (5) Topol EJ, Califf RM, Weisman HF, Ellis SG, Tcheng JE, Worley S, Ivanhoe R, George BS, Fintel D, Weston M, Sigmon K, Anderson KM, Lee KL, Willerson JT on behalf of the EPIC investigators. Lancet. 1994;343:881-886. (6) Scharf RE, Tomer A, Marzec UM, Teirstein PS, Ruggeri ZM, Harker LA. Arteriosclerosis and Thrombosis. 1992;12:1475-87.

Expression and in vitro functions of the ghrelin axis in endometrial cancer

Ghrelin is a peptide hormone produced in the stomach and a range of other tissues, where it has endocrine, paracrine and autocrine roles in both normal and disease states. Ghrelin has been shown to be an important growth factor for a number of tumours, including prostate and breast cancers. In this study, we examined the expression of the ghrelin axis (ghrelin and its receptor, the growth hormone secretagogue receptor, GHSR) in endometrial cancer. Ghrelin is expressed in a range of endometrial cancer tissues, while its cognate receptor, GHSR1a, is expressed in a small subset of normal and cancer tissues. Low to moderately invasive endometrial cancer cell lines were examined by RT-PCR and immunoblotting, demonstrating that ghrelin axis mRNA and protein expression correlate with differentiation status of Ishikawa, HEC1B and KLE endometrial cancer cell lines. Moreover, treatment with ghrelin potently stimulated cell proliferation and inhibited cell death. Taken together, these data indicate that ghrelin promotes the progression of endometrial cancer cells in vitro, and may contribute to endometrial cancer pathogenesis and represent a novel treatment target.

The ‘Indigenous Australian’ theme in the Australian Curriculum English : necessary or not?

On Friday 10 January 2014 Education Minister Christopher Pyne formally announced a review of the inaugural Australian curriculum. In his three and half minute televised justification, Pyne (2014) identified a number of criticisms of the national curriculum document, including the ‘necessity to have themes’ of ‘Australia’s place in Asia, Indigenous Australia and sustainability’. It is the second of these themes that we consider as ALEA’s Hot Topic for March 2014. We respond to Pyne’s momentary musing of the necessity of the ‘Indigenous Australian’ theme in the Australian Curriculum with a particular focus on the discipline of English. In the nomenclature of the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority’s Australian Curriculum (ACARA, 2013), we are of course referring to the ‘cross curriculum priority’ of ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander histories and cultures’.

Direct lipid profiling of single cells from inkjet printed microarrays

The on-demand printing of living cells using inkjet technologies has recently been demonstrated and allows for the controlled deposition of cells in microarrays. Here, we show that such arrays can be interrogated directly by robot-controlled liquid microextraction coupled with chip-based nanoelectospray mass spectrometry. Such automated analyses generate a profile of abundant membrane lipids that are characteristic of cell type. Significantly, the spatial control in both deposition and extraction steps combined with the sensitivity of the mass spectrometric detection allows for robust molecular profiling of individual cells. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

Winning the phishing war : a strategy for Australia

Phishing, a form of on-line identity theft, is a major problem worldwide, accounting for more than $7.5 Billion in losses in the US alone between 2005 and 2008. Australia was the first country to be targeted by Internet bank phishing in 2003 and continues to have a significant problem in this area. The major cyber crime groups responsible for phishing are based in Eastern Europe. They operate with a large degree of freedom due to the inherent difficulties in cross border law enforcement and the current situation in Eastern Europe, particularly in Russia and the Ukraine. They employ highly sophisticated and efficient technical tools to compromise victims and subvert bank authentication systems. However because it is difficult for them to repatriate the fraudulently obtained funds directly they employ Internet money mules in Australia to transfer the money via Western Union or Money gram. It is proposed a strategy, which firstly places more focus by Australian law enforcement upon transactions via Western Union and Money gram to detect this money laundering, would significantly impact the success of the Phishing attack model. This combined with a technical monitoring of Trojan technology and education of potential Internet money mules to avoid being duped would provide a winning strategy for the war on phishing for Australia.

Protecting web 2.0 services from botnet exploitations

Recently, botnet, a network of compromised computers, has been recognized as the biggest threat to the Internet. The bots in a botnet communicate with the botnet owner via a communication channel called Command and Control (C & C) channel. There are three main C & C channels: Internet Relay Chat (IRC), Peer-to-Peer (P2P) and web-based protocols. By exploiting the flexibility of the Web 2.0 technology, the web-based botnet has reached a new level of sophistication. In August 2009, such botnet was found on Twitter, one of the most popular Web 2.0 services. In this paper, we will describe a new type of botnet that uses Web 2.0 service as a C & C channel and a temporary storage for their stolen information. We will then propose a novel approach to thwart this type of attack. Our method applies a unique identifier of the computer, an encryption algorithm with session keys and a CAPTCHA verification.

Lessons from a face-to-face meeting on embedding Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander perspectives : ‘A contract of intimacy’

This paper presents the findings from a conversation between an Aboriginal educator and a non-Indigenous pre-service educator about the importance and complexities of building productive partnerships. Although the participants focused on the challenges and benefits of building relationships between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander educators and non-Indigenous educators in Australian early years settings, the more significant outcome of the meeting was the personal connection two young women were able to make when a friendship began to develop. The project was intended to enable an opportunity for the participants ‘to engage in reflexivity on their pedagogic work’, something Mills (2012) understands as crucial to the support of social justice and transformation in the classroom.

The fragmentation pathways of protonated Amiton in the gas phase : towards the structural characterisation of organophosphorus chemical warfare agents by electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry

Amiton (O,O-diethyl-S-[2-(diethylamino)ethyl]phosphorothiolate), otherwise known as VG, is listed in schedule 2 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and has a structure closely related to VX (O-ethyl-S-(2-diisopropylamino)ethylmethylphosphonothiolate). Fragmentation of protonated VG in the gas phase was performed using electrospray ionisation ion trap mass spectrometry (ESI-ITMS) and revealed several characteristic product ions. Quantum chemical calculations provide the most probable structures for these ions as well as the likely unimolecular mechanisms by which they are formed. The decomposition pathways predicted by computation are consistent with deuterium-labeling studies. The combination of experimental and theoretical data suggests that the fragmentation pathways of VG and analogous organophosphorus nerve agents, such as VX and Russian VX, are predictable and thus ESI tandem mass spectrometry is a powerful tool for the verification of unknown compounds listed in the CWC. Copyright (c) 2006 Commonwealth of Australia. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fragmentation pathways of 2,3-dimethyl-2,3-dinitrobutane cations in the gas phase

2,3-Dimethyl-2,3-dinitrobutane (DMNB) is an explosive taggant added to plastic explosives during manufacture making them more susceptible to vapour-phase detection systems. In this study, the formation and detection of gas-phase \[M+H](+), \[M+Li](+), \[M+NH(4)](+) and \[M+Na](+) adducts of DMNB was achieved using electrospray ionisation on a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer. The \[M+H](+) ion abundance was found to have a strong dependence on ion source temperature, decreasing markedly at source temperatures above 50 degrees C. In contrast, the \[M+Na](+) ion demonstrated increasing ion abundance at source temperatures up to 105 degrees C. The relative susceptibility of DMNB adduct ions toward dissociation was investigated by collision-induced dissociation. Probable structures of product ions and mechanisms for unimolecular dissociation have been inferred based on fragmentation patterns from tandem mass (MS/MS) spectra of source-formed ions of normal and isotopically labelled DMNB, and quantum chemical calculations. Both thermal and collisional activation studies suggest that the \[M+Na](+) adduct ions are significantly more stable toward dissociation than their protonated analogues and, as a consequence, the former provide attractive targets for detection by contemporary rapid screening methods such as desorption electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry. Copyright (C) 2009 Commonwealth of Australia. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimizing solar collector tilt angle to improve energy harvesting in a solar cooling system

Solar cooling systems are gaining popularity due to continuously increasing of energy costs around the world. However, there are still some factors that are hindering the installation of solar cooling systems on a larger scale. One being the cost associated with the solar collectors required to provide heat to the absorption chiller. This study demonstrates the possibility of reducing the number of solar panels in a residential solar cooling system based on evacuated tubes producing hot water at a low temperature (90 °C) and a water-ammonia absorption chiller.

Increasing incidence of Clostridium difficile infection, Australia, 2011–2012

Objectives: To report the quarterly incidence of hospital-identified Clostridium difficile infection (HI-CDI) in Australia, and to estimate the burden ascribed to hospital-associated (HA) and community-associated (CA) infections. Design, setting and patients: Prospective surveillance of all cases of CDI diagnosed in hospital patients from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2012 in 450 public hospitals in all Australian states and the Australian Capital Territory. All patients admitted to inpatient wards or units in acute public hospitals, including psychiatry, rehabilitation and aged care, were included, as well as those attending emergency departments and outpatient clinics. Main outcome measures: Incidence of HI-CDI (primary outcome); proportion and incidence of HA-CDI and CA-CDI (secondary outcomes). Results: The annual incidence of HI-CDI increased from 3.25/10 000 patient-days (PD) in 2011 to 4.03/10 000 PD in 2012. Poisson regression modelling demonstrated a 29% increase (95% CI, 25% to 34%) per quarter between April and December 2011, with a peak of 4.49/10 000 PD in the October–December quarter. The incidence plateaued in January–March 2012 and then declined by 8% (95% CI, − 11% to − 5%) per quarter to 3.76/10 000 PD in July–September 2012, after which the rate rose again by 11% (95% CI, 4% to 19%) per quarter to 4.09/10 000 PD in October–December 2012. Trends were similar for HA-CDI and CA-CDI. A subgroup analysis determined that 26% of cases were CA-CDI. Conclusions: A significant increase in both HA-CDI and CA-CDI identified through hospital surveillance occurred in Australia during 2011–2012. Studies are required to further characterise the epidemiology of CDI in Australia.