A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

The effect of environment on development and survival of pupae of the necrophagous fly Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes (Diptera, Muscidae)

The effect of environment on development and survival of pupae of the necrophagous fly Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes (Diptera, Muscidae). Species of Ophyra Robineau-Desvoidy, 1830 are found in decomposing bodies, usually in fresh, bloated and decay stages. Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes, for example, can be found in animal carcasses. The influence of environmental factors has not been evaluated in puparia of O. albuquerquei. Thus, the focus of this work was motivated by the need for models to predict the development of a necrophagous insect as a function of abiotic factors. Colonies of O. albuquerquei were maintained in the laboratory to obtain pupae. On the tenth day of each month 200 pupae, divided equally into 10 glass jars, were exposed to the environment and checked daily for adult emergence of each sample. We concluded that the high survival rate observed suggested that the diets used for rearing the larvae and maintaining the adults were appropriate. Also, the data adjusted to robust generalized linear models and there were no interruptions of O. albuquerquei pupae development within the limits of temperatures studied in southern Rio Grande do Sul, given the high survival presented.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Impact of incorrect assumptions on the covariance structure of random effects and/or residuals in nonlinear mixed models for repeated measures data

In this paper we analyse, using Monte Carlo simulation, the possible consequences of incorrect assumptions on the true structure of the random effects covariance matrix and the true correlation pattern of residuals, over the performance of an estimation method for nonlinear mixed models. The procedure under study is the well known linearization method due to Lindstrom and Bates (1990), implemented in the nlme library of S-Plus and R. Its performance is studied in terms of bias, mean square error (MSE), and true coverage of the associated asymptotic confidence intervals. Ignoring other criteria like the convenience of avoiding over parameterised models, it seems worst to erroneously assume some structure than do not assume any structure when this would be adequate.

Origin of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb in nuclear mean-field models

We study whether the neutron skin thickness Δrnp of 208Pb originates from the bulk or from the surface of the nucleon density distributions, according to the mean-field models of nuclear structure, and find that it depends on the stiffness of the nuclear symmetry energy. The bulk contribution to Δrnp arises from an extended sharp radius of neutrons, whereas the surface contribution arises from different widths of the neutron and proton surfaces. Nuclear models where the symmetry energy is stiff, as typical of relativistic models, predict a bulk contribution in Δrnp of 208Pb about twice as large as the surface contribution. In contrast, models with a soft symmetry energy like common nonrelativistic models predict that Δrnp of 208Pb is divided similarly into bulk and surface parts. Indeed, if the symmetry energy is supersoft, the surface contribution becomes dominant. We note that the linear correlation of Δrnp of 208Pb with the density derivative of the nuclear symmetry energy arises from the bulk part of Δrnp. We also note that most models predict a mixed-type (between halo and skin) neutron distribution for 208Pb. Although the halo-type limit is actually found in the models with a supersoft symmetry energy, the skin-type limit is not supported by any mean-field model. Finally, we compute parity-violating electron scattering in the conditions of the 208Pb parity radius experiment (PREX) and obtain a pocket formula for the parity-violating asymmetry in terms of the parameters that characterize the shape of the 208Pb nucleon densities.

Water retention and availability in soils of the State of Santa Catarina-Brazil: effect of textural classes, soil classes and lithology

The retention and availability of water in the soil vary according to the soil characteristics and determine plant growth. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate water retention and availability in the soils of the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, according to the textural class, soil class and lithology. The surface and subsurface horizons of 44 profiles were sampled in different regions of the State and different cover crops to determine field capacity, permanent wilting point, available water content, particle size, and organic matter content. Water retention and availability between the horizons were compared in a mixed model, considering the textural classes, the soil classes and lithology as fixed factors and profiles as random factors. It may be concluded that water retention is greater in silty or clayey soils and that the organic matter content is higher, especially in Humic Cambisols, Nitisols and Ferralsol developed from igneous or sedimentary rocks. Water availability is greater in loam-textured soils, with high organic matter content, especially in soils of humic character. It is lower in the sandy texture class, especially in Arenosols formed from recent alluvial deposits or in gravelly soils derived from granite. The greater water availability in the surface horizons, with more organic matter than in the subsurface layers, illustrates the importance of organic matter for water retention and availability.

Direct Effect of Birth Weight on Childhood Blood Pressure: a Causal Mediation Analysis

Background: Numerous studies have shown a negative association between birth weight (BW) and blood pressure (BP) later in life. To estimate the direct effect of BW on BP, it is conventional to condition on current weight (CW). However, such conditioning can induce collider stratification bias in the estimate of the direct effect. Objective: To bound the potential bias due to U, an unmeasured common cause of CW and BP, on the estimate of the (controlled) direct effect of BW on BP. Methods: Data from a school based study in Switzerland were used (N = 4,005; 2,010 B/1,995 G; mean age: 12.3 yr [range: 10.1-14.9]). Measured common causes of BW-BP (SES, smoking, body weight, and hypertension status of the mother) and CW-BP (breastfeeding and child's physical activity and diet) were identified with DAGs. Linear regression models were fitted to estimate the association between BW and BP. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the potential effect of U on the association between BW and BP. U was assumed 1) to be a binary variable that affected BP by the same magnitude in low BWand in normal BW children and 2) to have a different prevalence in low BW children and in normal BW children for a given CW. Results: A small negative association was observed between BW and BP [beta: -0.3 mmHg/kg (95% CI: -0.9 to 0.3)]. The association was strengthened upon conditioning for CW [beta: -1.5 mmHg/kg (95% CI: -2.1 to -0.9)]. Upon further conditioning on common causes of BW-BP and CW-BP, the association did not change substantially [beta: -1.4 mmHg/kg (95% CI: -2.0 to -0.8)]. The negative association could be explained by U only if U was strongly associated with BP and if there was a large difference in the prevalence of U between low BWand normal BW children. Conclusion: The observed negative association between BW and BP upon adjustment for CW was not easily explained by an unmeasured common cause of CWand BP.

Contributions of fat and protein to the incretin effect of a mixed meal.

Background: The relative contributions of fat and protein to the incretin effect are still largely unknown.Objective: This study assessed the incretin effects elicited by a mixed meal, and by its fat and protein components alone, with the use of a hyperglycemic clamp combined with oral nutrients.Design: Eight healthy volunteers were studied over 6 h after ingestion of a sandwich containing 1) dried meat, butter, and white bread; 2) dried meat alone; 3) butter alone; or 4) no meal (fasting control). Meals were ingested during a hyperglycemic clamp, and the incretin effect was calculated as the increment in plasma insulin after food intake relative to the concentrations observed during the control study.Results: A significant augmentation of postprandial insulin secretion, independent of plasma glycemia, occurred after ingestion of the mixed nutrients and the lipid component of the mixed meal (203 +/- 20.7% and 167.4 +/- 22.9% of control, respectively; both P < 0.05), whereas the protein component did not induce a significant incretin effect (129.0 +/- 7.9% of control; P = 0.6)Conclusions: Fat ingestion, in an amount typical of a standard meal, increases insulin secretion during physiologic hyperglycemia and thus contributes to the incretin effect. In contrast, ingestion of protein typical of normal meals does not contribute to the augmentation of postprandial insulin secretion. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00869453.

Characterizing variation in mycorrhiza effect among diverse plant varieties.

Exploitation of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi may be an important approach for development of reduced-input agriculture. We discuss the use of linear models to analyze variation in mycorrhiza response among diverse plant varieties in order to assess the value of mycorrhizas. Our approach allows elimination of variation linked to differences in plant performance in the absence of mycorrhizas and the selection of plant lines that might harbor genetic variation of use to improve the mycorrhizal symbiosis in agriculture. We illustrate our approach by applying it to previously published and to novel data. We suggest that in dealing with a relative trait such as mycorrhiza effect, the choice of measure used to quantify the trait greatly affects interpretation. In the plant populations under consideration, we find evidence for a greater potential to increase mycorrhiza benefit than previously suggested.

Effects of a school-based physical activity program on physical and psychosocial quality of life in elementary school children: a cluster-randomized trial.

The present study tested the effect of a school-based physical activity (PA) program on quality of life (QoL) in 540 elementary school children. First and fifth graders were randomly assigned to a PA program or a no-PA control condition during one academic year. QoL was assessed by the Child Health Questionnaire at baseline and postintervention. Based on mixed linear model analyses, physical QoL in first graders and physical and psychosocial QoL in fifth graders were not affected by the intervention. In first graders, the PA intervention had a positive impact on psychosocial QoL (effect size [d], 0.32; p < .05). Subpopulation analyses revealed that this effect was caused by an effect in urban (effect size [d], 0.38; p < .05) and overweight first graders (effect size [d], 0.45; p < .05). In conclusion, a school-based PA intervention had little effect on QoL in elementary school children.

Biometrical analysis and selection of tetraploid progenies of Panicum maximum using mixed model methods

The objectives of this work were to estimate the genetic and phenotypic parameters and to predict the genetic and genotypic values of the selection candidates obtained from intraspecific crosses in Panicum maximum as well as the performance of the hybrid progeny of the existing and projected crosses. Seventy-nine intraspecific hybrids obtained from artificial crosses among five apomictic and three sexual autotetraploid individuals were evaluated in a clonal test with two replications and ten plants per plot. Green matter yield, total and leaf dry matter yields and leaf percentage were evaluated in five cuts per year during three years. Genetic parameters were estimated and breeding and genotypic values were predicted using the restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction procedure (REML/BLUP). The dominant genetic variance was estimated by adjusting the effect of full-sib families. Low magnitude individual narrow sense heritabilities (0.02-0.05), individual broad sense heritabilities (0.14-0.20) and repeatability measured on an individual basis (0.15-0.21) were obtained. Dominance effects for all evaluated characteristics indicated that breeding strategies that explore heterosis must be adopted. Less than 5% increase in the parameter repeatability was obtained for a three-year evaluation period and may be the criterion to determine the maximum number of years of evaluation to be adopted, without compromising gain per cycle of selection. The identification of hybrid candidates for future cultivars and of those that can be incorporated into the breeding program was based on the genotypic and breeding values, respectively. The prediction of the performance of the hybrid progeny, based on the breeding values of the progenitors, permitted the identification of the best crosses and indicated the best parents to use in crosses.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

Contributions of fat protein to the incretin effect of a mixed meal

La régulation de la glycémie est une fonction complexe de l'organisme faisant intervenir de multiples mécanismes. Lors de la prise alimentaire, l'un des mécanismes impliqués dans l'homéostasie glucidique, notamment dans la sécrétion d'insuline, est l'axe entéroinsulaire. En effet, le contact des nutriments avec des cellules spécialisées réparties le long du tractus digestif déclenche la sécrétion d'hormones, appelées incretines, telles que le GLP-1 ou le GIP. Ces hormones gastro-intestinales potentialisent la sécrétion d'insuline (effet incrétine) et sont responsables d'une grande partie de la réponse insulinique à la prise orale de glucose.¦L'importance de ces hormones est particulièrement mise en évidence par des observations faites chez les sujets obèses ayant bénéficié d'une chirurgie bariatrique. En effet, après l'opération, la sensibilité à l'insuline et sa sécrétion sont améliorées chez des patients obèses diabétiques ou intolérants au glucose, alors que le pattern de sécrétion des hormones GI est nettement modifié avec notamment une augmentation de la sécrétion de GLP-1. L'augmentation de la sécrétion de ces hormones pourrait contribuer à l'amélioration de la tolérance glucidique en augmentant la sécrétion d'insuline en réponse à l'apport de nutriments. Cette activation exagérée de l'axe entéro-insulaire pourrait aussi contribuer à la pathogenèse des hypoglycémies postprandiales survenant parfois après un bypass gastrique¦Néanmoins, si le rôle des hormones gastro-intestinales est indubitale, il y a peu de données nous indiquant le rôle respectif des divers macronutriments composant un repas standard dans I'activation de l'axe entéro-insulaire. Dans ce travail, nous avons cherché à préciser le rôle spécifique de la partie lipidique et protéique d'un repas standard.¦Après avoir confirmé l'existence d'un effet incrétine lors de la consommation d'un repas test sous forme d'un sandwich, les résultats que nous avons obtenus montrent que l'ingestion de lipides en quantité correspondant à celle d'un repas standard augmente la sécrétion d'insuline, contribuant ainsi à l'effet incrétine, alors qu'à contrario, l'ingestion de protéines ne provoque pas d'augmentation de l'insulinémie et ainsi ne contribue pas à l'effet incrétine.¦Ces observations pourraient revêtir un intérêt pratique. En effet, la démonstration du rôle prépondérant d'un macronutriment dans l'effet incrétine suivant la prise d'un repas standard pourrait mener à des prescriptions diététiques dans le but d'améliorer le contrôle glycémique chez des patients diabétiques ou de diminuer les hypoglycémies suivant la prise alimentaire chez certains patients ayant bénéficié d'un bypass gastrique. De même, une meilleure compréhension du rôle des hormones incrétines a déjà ouvert de nouvelles perspectives thérapeutiques dans le traitement du diabète de type 2 avec le développement de nouvelles classes de médicaments telles que les analogues du GLP-1 ou les inhibiteurs de sa dégradation.