Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Competitor Information andCompetitive Knowledge Management in a Large Industrial Organization

Thisthesis supplements the systematic approach to competitive intelligence and competitor analysis by introducing an information-processing perspective on management of the competitive environment and competitors therein. The cognitive questions connected to the intelligence process and also the means that organizational actors use in sharing information are discussed. The ultimate aim has been to deepen knowledge of the different intraorganizational processes that are used in acorporate organization to manage and exploit the vast amount of competitor information that is received from the environment. Competitor information and competitive knowledge management is examined as a process, where organizational actorsidentify and perceive the competitive environment by using cognitive simplification, make interpretations resulting in learning and finally utilize competitor information and competitive knowledge in their work processes. The sharing of competitive information and competitive knowledge is facilitated by intraorganizational networks that evolve as a means of developing a shared, organizational level knowledge structure and ensuring that the right information is in the right place at the right time. This thesis approaches competitor information and competitive knowledge management both theoretically and empirically. Based on the conceptual framework developed by theoretical elaboration, further understanding of the studied phenomena is sought by an empirical study. The empirical research was carried out in a multinationally operating forest industry company. This thesis makes some preliminary suggestions of improving the competitive intelligence process. It is concluded that managing competitor information and competitive knowledge is not simply a question of managing information flow or improving sophistication of competitor analysis, but the crucial question to be solved is rather, how to improve the cognitive capabilities connected to identifying and making interpretations of the competitive environment and how to increase learning. It is claimed that competitive intelligence can not be treated like an organizational function or assigned solely to a specialized intelligence unit.

Applicability of Power-Line Communications to Data Transfer of On-line Condition Monitoring of Electrical Drives

The research of power-line communications has been concentrated on home automation, broadband indoor communications and broadband data transfer in a low voltage distribution network between home andtransformer station. There has not been carried out much research work that is focused on the high frequency characteristics of industrial low voltage distribution networks. The industrial low voltage distribution network may be utilised as a communication channel to data transfer required by the on-line condition monitoring of electric motors. The advantage of using power-line data transfer is that it does not require the installing of new cables. In the first part of this work, the characteristics of industrial low voltage distribution network components and the pilot distribution network are measured and modelled with respect topower-line communications frequencies up to 30 MHz. The distributed inductances, capacitances and attenuation of MCMK type low voltage power cables are measured in the frequency band 100 kHz - 30 MHz and an attenuation formula for the cables is formed based on the measurements. The input impedances of electric motors (15-250 kW) are measured using several signal couplings and measurement based input impedance model for electric motor with a slotted stator is formed. The model is designed for the frequency band 10 kHz - 30 MHz. Next, the effect of DC (direct current) voltage link inverter on power line data transfer is briefly analysed. Finally, a pilot distribution network is formed and signal attenuation in communication channels in the pilot environment is measured. The results are compared with the simulations that are carried out utilising the developed models and measured parameters for cables and motors. In the second part of this work, a narrowband power-line data transfer system is developed for the data transfer ofon-line condition monitoring of electric motors. It is developed using standardintegrated circuits. The system is tested in the pilot environment and the applicability of the system for the data transfer required by the on-line condition monitoring of electric motors is analysed.

A comparative performance study of four-pole induction motors and synchronous reluctance motors in variable speed drives

Design aspects of the Transversally Laminated Anisotropic (TLA) Synchronous Reluctance Motor (SynRM) are studied and the machine performance analysis compared to the Induction Motor (IM) is done. The SynRM rotor structure is designed and manufactured for a30 kW, four-pole, three-phase squirrel cage induction motor stator. Both the IMand SynRM were supplied by a sensorless Direct Torque Controlled (DTC) variablespeed drive. Attention is also paid to the estimation of the power range where the SynRM may compete successfully with a same size induction motor. A technicalloss reduction comparison between the IM and SynRM in variable speed drives is done. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is used to analyse the number, location and width of flux barriers used in a multiple segment rotor. It is sought for a high saliency ratio and a high torque of the motor. It is given a comparison between different FEM calculations to analyse SynRM performance. The possibility to take into account the effect of iron losses with FEM is studied. Comparison between the calculated and measured values shows that the design methods are reliable. A new application of the IEEE 112 measurement method is developed and used especially for determination of stray load losses in laboratory measurements. The study shows that, with some special measures, the efficiency of the TLA SynRM is equivalent to that of a high efficiency IM. The power factor of the SynRM at rated load is smaller than that of the IM. However, at lower partial load this difference decreases and this, probably, brings that the SynRM gets a better power factor in comparison with the IM. The big rotor inductance ratio of the SynRM allows a good estimating of the rotor position. This appears to be very advantageous for the designing of the rotor position sensor-less motor drive. In using the FEM designed multi-layer transversally laminated rotor with damper windings it is possible to design a directly network driven motor without degrading the motorefficiency or power factor compared to the performance of the IM.

Scales and causes of heterogeneity in bars in a large multi-channel river: Rio Parana, Argentina

To date, published studies of alluvial bar architecture in large rivers have been restricted mostly to case studies of individual bars and single locations. Relatively little is known about how the depositional processes and sedimentary architecture of kilometre-scale bars vary within a multi-kilometre reach or over several hundreds of kilometres downstream. This study presents Ground Penetrating Radar and core data from 11, kilometre-scale bars from the Rio Parana, Argentina. The investigated bars are located between 30km upstream and 540km downstream of the Rio Parana - Rio Paraguay confluence, where a significant volume of fine-grained suspended sediment is introduced into the network. Bar-scale cross-stratified sets, with lengths and widths up to 600m and thicknesses up to 12m, enable the distinction of large river deposits from stacked deposits of smaller rivers, but are only present in half the surface area of the bars. Up to 90% of bar-scale sets are found on top of finer-grained ripple-laminated bar-trough deposits. Bar-scale sets make up as much as 58% of the volume of the deposits in small, incipient mid-channel bars, but this proportion decreases significantly with increasing age and size of the bars. Contrary to what might be expected, a significant proportion of the sedimentary structures found in the Rio Parana is similar in scale to those found in much smaller rivers. In other words, large river deposits are not always characterized by big structures that allow a simple interpretation of river scale. However, the large scale of the depositional units in big rivers causes small-scale structures, such as ripple sets, to be grouped into thicker cosets, which indicate river scale even when no obvious large-scale sets are present. The results also show that the composition of bars differs between the studied reaches upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Rio Paraguay. Relative to other controls on downstream fining, the tributary input of fine-grained suspended material from the Rio Paraguay causes a marked change in the composition of the bar deposits. Compared to the upstream reaches, the sedimentary architecture of the downstream reaches in the top ca 5m of mid-channel bars shows: (i) an increase in the abundance and thickness (up to metre-scale) of laterally extensive (hundreds of metres) fine-grained layers; (ii) an increase in the percentage of deposits comprised of ripple sets (to >40% in the upper bar deposits); and (iii) an increase in bar-trough deposits and a corresponding decrease in bar-scale cross-strata (<10%). The thalweg deposits of the Rio Parana are composed of dune sets, even directly downstream from the Rio Paraguay where the upper channel deposits are dominantly fine-grained. Thus, the change in sedimentary facies due to a tributary point-source of fine-grained sediment is primarily expressed in the composition of the upper bar deposits.

The role of tributary relative timing and sequencing in controlling large floods

Hydrograph convolution is a product of tributary inputs from across the watershed. The time-space distribution of precipitation, the biophysical processes that control the conversion of precipitation to runoff and channel flow conveyance processes, are heterogeneous and different areas respond to rainfall in different ways. We take a subwatershed approach to this and account for tributary flow magnitude, relative timing, and sequencing. We hypothesize that as the scale of the watershed increases so we may start to see systematic differences in subwatershed hydrological response. We test this hypothesis for a large flood (T >100 years) in a large watershed in northern England. We undertake a sensitivity analysis of the effects of changing subwatershed hydrological response using a hydraulic model. Delaying upstream tributary peak flow timing to make them asynchronous from downstream subwatersheds reduced flood magnitude. However, significant hydrograph adjustment in any one subwatershed was needed for meaningful reductions in stage downstream, although smaller adjustments in multiple tributaries resulted in comparable impacts. For larger hydrograph adjustments, the effect of changing the timing of two tributaries together was lower than the effect of changing each one separately. For smaller adjustments synergy between two subwatersheds meant the effect of changing them together could be greater than the sum of the parts. Thus, this work shows that while the effects of modifying biophysical catchment properties diminishes with scale due to dilution effects, their impact on relative timing of tributaries may, if applied in the right locations, be an important element of flood management.

Expanding the Mutation Spectrum Affecting αIIbβ3 Integrin in Glanzmann Thrombasthenia: Screening of the ITGA2B and ITGB3 Genes in a Large International Cohort.

We report the largest international study on Glanzmann thrombasthenia (GT), an inherited bleeding disorder where defects of the ITGA2B and ITGB3 genes cause quantitative or qualitative defects of the αIIbβ3 integrin, a key mediator of platelet aggregation. Sequencing of the coding regions and splice sites of both genes in members of 76 affected families identified 78 genetic variants (55 novel) suspected to cause GT. Four large deletions or duplications were found by quantitative real-time PCR. Families with mutations in either gene were indistinguishable in terms of bleeding severity that varied even among siblings. Families were grouped into type I and the rarer type II or variant forms with residual αIIbβ3 expression. Variant forms helped identify genes encoding proteins mediating integrin activation. Splicing defects and stop codons were common for both ITGA2B and ITGB3 and essentially led to a reduced or absent αIIbβ3 expression; included was a heterozygous c.1440-13_c.1440-1del in intron 14 of ITGA2B causing exon skipping in seven unrelated families. Molecular modeling revealed how many missense mutations induced subtle changes in αIIb and β3 domain structure across both subunits, thereby interfering with integrin maturation and/or function. Our study extends knowledge of GT and the pathophysiology of an integrin.

Complexation to macromolecules with a large number of sites

This paper presents an approach based on the saddle-point approximation to study the equilibrium interactions between small molecules and macromolecules with a large number of sites. For this case, the application of the Darwin–Fowler method results in very simple expressions for the stoichiometric equilibrium constants and their corresponding free energies in terms of integrals of the binding curve plus a correction term which depends on the first derivatives of the binding curve in the points corresponding to an integer value of the mean occupation number. These expressions are simplified when the number of sites tends to infinity, providing an interpretation of the binding curve in terms of the stoichiometric stability constants. The formalism presented is applied to some simple complexation models, obtaining good values for the free energies involved. When heterogeneous complexation is assumed, simple expressions are obtained to relate the macroscopic description of the binding, given by the stoichiomeric constants, with the microscopic description in terms of the intrinsic stability constants or the affinity spectrum. © 1999 American Institute of Physics.

A systematic review of the surgical treatment of large incisional hernia.

PURPOSE: Incisional hernia (IH) is one of the most frequent postoperative complications. Of all patients undergoing IH repair, a vast amount have a hernia which can be defined as a large incisional hernia (LIH). The aim of this study is to identify the preferred technique for LIH repair. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed and studies describing patients with IH with a diameter of 10 cm or a surface of 100 cm2 or more were included. Recurrence hazards per year were calculated for all techniques using a generalized linear model. RESULTS: Fifty-five articles were included, containing 3,945 LIH repairs. Mesh reinforced techniques displayed better recurrence rates and hazards than techniques without mesh reinforcement. Of all the mesh techniques, sublay repair, sandwich technique with sublay mesh and aponeuroplasty with intraperitoneal mesh displayed the best results (recurrence rates of <3.6%, recurrence hazard <0.5% per year). Wound complications were frequent and most often seen after complex LIH repair. CONCLUSIONS: The use of mesh during LIH repair displayed the best recurrence rates and hazards. If possible mesh in sublay position should be used in cases of LIH repair.

Low penetrance in facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy type 1 with large pathological D4Z4 alleles: a cross-sectional multicenter study.

BackgroundFacioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy type 1(FSHD1) is an autosomal dominant disorder associated with the contraction of D4Z4 less than 11 repeat units (RUs) on chromosome 4q35. Penetrance in the range of the largest alleles is poorly known. Our objective was to study the penetrance of FSHD1 in patients carrying alleles ranging between 6 to10 RUs and to evaluate the influence of sex, age, and several environmental factors on clinical expression of the disease. Methods A cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in six French and one Swiss neuromuscular centers. 65 FSHD1 affected patients carrying a 4qA allele of 6¿10 RUs were identified as index cases (IC) and their 119 at-risk relatives were included. The age of onset was recorded for IC only. Medical history, neurological examination and manual muscle testing were performed for each subject. Genetic testing determined the allele size (number of RUs) and the 4qA/4qB allelic variant. The clinical status of relatives was established blindly to their genetic testing results. The main outcome was the penetrance defined as the ratio between the number of clinically affected carriers and the total number of carriers. Results Among the relatives, 59 carried the D4Z4 contraction. At the clinical level, 34 relatives carriers were clinically affected and 25 unaffected. Therefore, the calculated penetrance was 57% in the range of 6¿10 RUs. Penetrance was estimated at 62% in the range of 6¿8 RUs, and at 47% in the range of 9¿10 RUs. Moreover, penetrance was lower in women than men. There was no effect of drugs, anesthesia, surgery or traumatisms on the penetrance. Conclusions Penetrance of FSHD1 is low for largest alleles in the range of 9¿10 RUs, and lower in women than men. This is of crucial importance for genetic counseling and clinical management of patients and families.

Large T Antigen-Specific Cytotoxic T Cells Protect Against Dendritic Cell Tumors through Perforin-Mediated Mechanisms Independent of CD4 T Cell Help.

Our newly generated murine tumor dendritic cell (MuTuDC) lines, generated from tumors developing in transgenic mice expressing the simian virus 40 large T antigen (SV40LgT) and GFP under the DC specific promoter CD11c, reproduce the phenotypic and functional properties of splenic wild type CD8α(+) conventional DCs. They have an immature phenotype with low co-stimulation molecule expression (CD40, CD70, CD80, and CD86) that is upregulated after activation with toll-like receptor ligands. We observed that after transfer into syngeneic C57BL/6 mice, MuTuDC lines were quickly rejected. Tumors grew efficiently in large T transgene-tolerant mice. To investigate the immune response toward the large T antigen that leads to rejection of the MuTuDC lines, they were genetically engineered by lentiviral transduction to express luciferase and tested for the induction of DC tumors after adoptive transfer in various gene deficient recipient mice. Here, we document that the MuTuDC line was rejected in C57BL/6 mice by a CD4 T cell help-independent, perforin-mediated CD8 T cell response to the SV40LgT without pre-activation or co-injection of adjuvants. Using depleting anti-CD8β antibodies, we were able to induce efficient tumor growth in C57BL/6 mice. These results are important for researchers who want to use the MuTuDC lines for in vivo studies.

Risks in R&D Collaboration between Small and Large Firms

The main aim of this thesis was to find out what kinds of risks arise from collabo-ration in R&D between small and large firms. The suitability and gain of some buyer/supplier risk frameworks in examining of R&D collaboration has been in-vestigated. A risk model has been based on the buyer/supplier risks models found in the literature. Its applicability has been tested empirically by means of theme interviews with firm representatives. The risk classification framework received some confirmation. But the study also showed that the theoretical framework was not completely adequate, as a new risk class arose from communication. Collaboration causes risks, and these risks should be taken into account when R&D collaboration is planned. The advantage of risk examination is the possibility to decrease failures and losses, and to in-crease possibilities for success and economical benefits. This study should be used as a managerial analysis tool in trying to understand the form and concept of risk in risk expectancy.

Large N QCD from rotating branes

We study large N SU(N) Yang-Mills theory in three and four dimensions using a one-parameter family of supergravity models which originate from non-extremal rotating D-branes. We show explicitly that varying this angular momentum parameter decouples the Kaluza-Klein modes associated with the compact D-brane coordinate, while the mass ratios for ordinary glueballs are quite stable against this variation, and are in good agreement with the latest lattice results. We also compute the topological susceptibility and the gluon condensate as a function of the "angular momentum" parameter.